Energy market boosts soyoil

NYSTROM, from pg. 16 est since late March while the November contract traded to fresh lows since just late April before the recovery.

Weekly export sales were within expectations at 10.6 million bushels to bring total commitments to 1.86 billion bushels. This is down 13 percent from last year when the USDA is projecting a 6.6 percent decline. We need to average weekly sales of 6.5 million to reach the USDA’s 2.015 billion bushel forecast. The March National Agricultural Statistics Service Oilseed Crush report was larger than expected at 198 million bushels. This was a record for the month and the second-largest for any month. Soyoil stocks were 2.388 billion pounds vs. the 2.414 billion pounds estimated.

U.S. soybean planting as of April 30 was 19 percent complete, nicely ahead of the 11 percent average. Illinois was 39 percent planted vs. 15 percent average; Iowa was 16 percent complete vs. 15 percent on average; and Minnesota was 1 percent complete vs. 8 percent on average. Soybean planting was tied with 2021 as the fastest pace on record. The average soybean planting for May 7 is 21 percent complete.

As of May 1, Brazil’s soybean harvest was 95 percent complete. Brazil is feel- ing the effects of a record crop with storage deficits apparent. Argentina’s was 36 percent complete vs. the average of 64 percent complete, according to the BAGE.

Outlook: Soybeans posted a wide trading range this week; but, in the end, didn’t move out of consolidation. Weakness in meal which traded to its lowest since December 2022 lent general pressure to soybeans. However, soyoil provided support on a strong energy market and palm oil market. If corn planting continues to move forward unimpeded, there is less likelihood of acres switching to soybeans.

For the week, July soybeans jumped 17.25 cents to $14.36.5 and the November was 16.5 cents higher at $12.80 per bushel. July meal was 6.30 per ton lower and the July soyoil surged 2.66 cents higher.

In the last five years during the MayJune time frame, November soybeans have tended to rally in the first half of June.

Weekly price changes in July wheat for the week ended May 5: Chicago wheat up 26.5 cents to $6.60.25, Kansas City soared 56.75 cents to $8.33, and Minneapolis rallied 32.25 cents to $8.36 per bushel. v

reported in the May 8 “Dairy Radio

Now” broadcast she’s a bit skeptical of the rise in powder. Demand is weak globally, she said, and the buying came primarily from Asia, particularly on whole milk powder, as perhaps there isn’t as much available.

When asked about the U.S. breakeven milk price, Berning said it depends a lot on whether you are buying feed. The range is $18 on the low end to the mid $20s if purchasing feed. Last year, farmers were able to pay down some debt or defer some income, she concluded. “Bankers seem willing to work with farmers despite milk prices being below breakeven; but it’s not fun when you feel squeezed.”

U.S. dairy exports fell in March from a year ago on a volume basis. However, HighGround Dairy points out that historically speaking, exports were in the top three, just behind 2022.

In politics, the National Milk Producers Federation submitted its proposal for modernizing the Federal Milk Marketing Order system to the USDA this week. NMPF President and CEO Jim Mulhern stated, “Dairy farmers and their cooperatives need a modernized Federal Milk Marketing Order system that works better for producers. By updating the pricing formulas to better reflect the value of the high-quality products made from farmers’ milk, by rebalancing pricing risks that have shifted unfairly onto farmers, and by creating a pathway to better reflect processing costs going forward, we are excited to submit this plan as a path toward a brighter future for dairy.”

Upon official acceptance, USDA will have 30 days to review the plan and decide whether and how to move forward with a federal order hearing to review the plan, according to NMPF.

The plan calls for updating dairy product manufacturing allowances contained in USDA milk price formulas, discontinuing the use of barrel cheese in the protein component price formula, returning to the “higher of” Class I mover, updating milk component factors for protein, other solids and nonfat solids in the Class III and Class IV skim milk price formulas, and updating the Class I differential price system to reflect changes in the cost of delivering bulk milk to fluid plants.

NMPF will also pursue two other components outside of the hearing process, that don’t involve changing federal order regulations. They would extend the current 30-day reporting limit to 45 days on forward priced sales on nonfat dry milk and dry whey to capture more exports sales in USDA product price reporting. NMPF also seeks to develop legislative language for the farm bill to ensure the make allowance is regularly reviewed by directing the USDA to conduct mandatory plant-cost studies every two years.

Lee Mielke is a syndicated columnist who resides in Everson, Wash. His weekly column is featured in newspapers across the country and he may be reached at lkmielke@juno.com. v

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June 13, 2023

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