Cash Grain Markets

led by weather, technical considerations, and how large a short funds want to carry. The next big report will be the June WASDE on June 12th and it could be expected to see a cut to exports and an increase in carryout. Also, keep an eye on the outcome from the June 4 OPEC meeting which may include a production cut and have a short-term effect on prices.

December corn traded to its highest since April 27 in a late week rally. For the week, July corn finished a nickel higher at $6.09 and December was 6.75 cents higher at $5.41.25 per bushel.

SOYBEANS — The soybeans and products took significant hits in post-holiday trading as they moved to fresh five-month lows in July soybeans and nearly two-year lows in the November soybean contract. The low in the July contract at $12.70.75 per bushel was the lowest for a lead contract since 2021 as we closed out May. July meal fell to its lowest since August 2022 and July soyoil since April 2021.

Grain prices are effective cash close on June 6. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.

export sales flashes during the week. Weekly ethanol production was up 21,000 barrels per day to 1 million bpd and a six-week high. We continue to run below what is needed to reach the USDA’s outlook. Ethanol stocks were up 291,000 barrels at 22.3 million barrels and the second lowest in the last five years.

Gasoline demand fell by 339,000 bpd to 9.1 million bpd. The four-week average gasoline demand is up 3.5 percent from a year ago. The April National Agricultural Statistics Service crush report at 415 million bushels was below the average guess of 423 million bushels.

The June 2 non-farm payroll report was sharply higher than expected with 339,000 jobs added vs. 190,000 estimated. Unemployment, however, rose to 3.7 percent and the highest since October 2022. This may bring up the possibility of the Federal Reserve second-guessing its indication to halt interest rate increases at its next meeting.

Argentina’s corn harvest is 43 percent complete according to the Argentina Ag Secretary while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange puts it at 28.6 percent complete. The three-year average is 55 percent complete.

Outlook: Weather will continue to dominate the headlines and affect corn more than soybeans at this time of year. The National Weather Service’s June outlook showed below-average rain for the heart of the Corn Belt with above-average temperatures.

The June World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report will be released on June 9, and many expect the export line to be lowered. With corn conditions only slightly below last year, the yield may likely be unchanged at 181.5 bushels per acre. Demand has been suspect so any support should be

There were rumors of Chinese interest after the sell-off, but nothing was confirmed. China’s official purchasing managers index was disappointing at 48.8, which indicates contraction. This doesn’t bode well for increased demand.

Cheap Brazilian soybeans work into the U.S. southeast. It’s been reported that three Brazilian soybean vessels with 120,000 metric tons will be reaching the United States between June 4 and June 11. This would be the largest U.S. importation of Brazilian soybeans since 2021 when we imported 178,000 metric tons.

U.S. soybean planting as of May 30 was 83 percent complete compared to 65 percent on average. Emergence was 56 percent compared to the 40 percent average. According to the USDA as of May 30, 28 percent of the U.S. soybean area is under drought which is an increase of 8 percent for the week. The first soybean condition report is expected on June 5.

Weekly export sales were 4.5 million bushels for old crop and 11.1 million bushels for new crop. The leading old crop buyer was Mexico with nothing for China. Total old crop commitments are 1.87 billion bushels and down 14 percent from last year. The USDA is forecasting year-on-year exports to decline by 7 percent this year. We need to average 8 million bushels of sales per week to achieve the USDA outlook for 2.015 billion bushels of exports. New crop commitments total 104.8 million bushels and are only 24 percent of what we had sold last year by this date. As in corn, there were no daily export sales flashes for the soy complex this week.

The April NASS Oilseed Crush was a record for the month at 187 million bushels when the trade was anticipating 184.8 million bushels. Soyoil stocks were 2.5 billion pounds and nearly as expected. This was a 14-month high and the second highest in 36 months.

Argentina’s soybean harvest is 86 percent complete