Cash Grain Markets

sales by the farmer are well behind average. If prices don’t rebound by the fall, will empty bins just fill up? Interest rates are much higher than last year, so don’t forget to figure that into your cost of holding bushels.

Weather, crop conditions, and the Black Sea grain deal are dominant features. Volatility should continue to be high and swings erratic, depending on changing forecasts. September corn established a double bottom at this week›s $5.74 low. The next upside target is the 50-day moving average at $5.27 per bushel as of the close July 14. The first support in December corn is this week’s low at $4.81 and upside resistance at the 50-day moving average at $5.31 per bushel. For the week, September and December corn each rallied 19.25 cents to $5.06.5 and $5.13.75, respectively.

Grain prices are effective cash close on July 18. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.

were reduced by 75 million bushels to 1.65 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks were down 50 million bushels to 1.402 billion bushels compared to 1.42 billion bushels estimated and 1.452 billion in June. World ending stocks were 296.3 mmt vs. 298.13 mmt estimated and 297.55 mmt in June. Brazil’s corn was increased by 1 mmt to 133 mmt and Argentina was decreased by 1 mmt to 34 mmt.

The weekly conditions report as of July 9 showed a 4 percent improvement in the good/excellent category to 55 percent good/excellent for the whole United States, but are the lowest for mid-July in 11 years.

The rating for Illinois was 3 percent better, while Iowa and Minnesota were unchanged. Historically, the ratings are low. Corn silking was 22 percent vs. 21 percent on average with 3 percent in the dough stage compared to 2 percent on average. The weekly Drought Monitor showed a 3 percent improvement in the United States with 64 percent of the U.S. corn area under drought conditions. Iowa has 89 percent of its corn area in some degree of drought, Illinois and Nebraska 86 percent, Minnesota 53 percent, Kansas 74 percent, and Wisconsin 86 percent.

Weekly exports were the highest in 13 weeks with 18.4 million bushels for old crop and 18.5 million bushels for new crop. Total old crop commitments are 35 percent behind last year at 1.555 billion bushels.

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report has year-on-year exports down 33 percent, so the fresh export number looks doable. With the change in old crop exports, we need to average 4.8 million bushels of sales per week to hit the new 1.65 billion bushel target. Total new crop commitments are 159 million bushels compared to 269 million bushels last year.

Outlook: I can’t remember in my 42 years in the grain industry a time when we’ve had such big price swings and little interest from the country. New crop

SOYBEANS — Soybean prices soared higher this week with weather forecasts a concern and expectations for a tighter balance sheet on the July 12 WASDE report. Soyoil was behind the early week strength derived from higher world vegetable oil prices. Palm oil stocks were lower than expected.

Highlights of the July WASDE report: 2023-24 Crop Year: Acreage was cut by 4 million acres to 83.5 million acres. U.S. yield was unchanged at 52 bu./acre vs. 51.4 bu./acre estimated. Production was down 210 million bushels to 4.3 billion bushels vs. 4.253 billion estimated and 4.51 billion bushels in June. The crush was decreased by 10 million to 2.3 billion bushels and exports were chopped by 125 million to 1.85 billion bushels. Ending stocks dropped 50 million bushels to 300 million bushels compared to 199 million estimated and 350 million in June. World ending stocks were 120.98 mmt vs. 121 mmt estimated and 123.34 mmt in June. Brazil’s soybean production was unchanged at 163 mmt and Argentina steady at 48 mmt.

On the 2022-23 balance sheet: U.S. exports were lowered 20 million bushels to 1.98 billion bushels, residual down 5 million, and ending stocks up 25 million bushels at 255 million bushels vs. 232 million estimated and 230 million in June. World ending stocks were 102.9 mmt vs. 101.2 mmt estimated and 101.32 mmt in June. Brazil’s beans were 156 mmt and Argentina at 25 mmt, both unchanged. Conab is forecasting Brazil’s soybean crop at 154.5 mmt.

Soybean ratings were only up 1 percent at 51 percent good/excellent when traders were expecting at least a 2 percent improvement. This is the lowest soybean rating for mid-July since 2012. Illinois’ rating was up 6 percent, but Iowa fell 1 percent and Minnesota was down 3 percent. Beans blooming was 39 percent vs. 35 percent on average and setting pods was 10 percent vs. 7 percent on average. The weekly Drought Monitor showed a 3 percent improvement in the U.S. soybean area under drought at 57 percent.

Nebraska has 93 percent of their soybeans under drought, Iowa and Kansas have 89 percent, Wisconsin 85 percent, Illinois and Missouri 83 percent, and