Export sales lowest in 8 weeks

NYSTROM, from pg. 14

Minnesota just 48 percent.

Weekly export sales were the lowest in eight weeks for old crop at 3 million bushels, bringing total commitments to 1.93 billion bushels. This is down 11 percent from last year when the USDA is forecasting an 8 percent decline in year-on-year exports. We need to average 1.5 million bushels of sales per week to reach the 1.98 billion bushel export forecast. New crop export sales were 7.7 million bushels, bringing total commitments to 152.6 million bushels vs. 509 million last year. The USDA this week announced the sale of 11.6 million bushels of new crop soybeans to Mexico and 105,000 metric tons of meal to unknown.

The June National Oilseed Processors Association Crush report on June 17 is estimated at 170.6 million bushels, which would be a June record. Soyoil stocks are estimated at 1.816 billion pounds.

Outlook: November soybeans have closed over $13.75 per bushel only once since March 6. We closed this week at $13.70.75 per bushel, up 53 cents for the week. August soybeans were 52.5 cents higher at $14.80.25 per bushel. August meal rallied $21 to $423.80 and soyoil was up 2.48 cents at $.6505.

We’ll continue to expect high volatility for the last half of July and into August. August weather usually determines the final soybean yield, so we’ll stay sensitive to any changes, but we closed the week on a high note. The next resistance in November soybeans is $14.00 per bushel with support at the 200-day moving average at $13.32 per bushel, as of the close July 14.

Weekly price changes in September wheat for the week ended July 14: Chicago wheat up 12 cents at $6.61.5, Kansas City up 10.75 cents at $8.29, and Minneapolis surging 36.5 cents to $8.84.25 per bushel. v