Winners and Losers: who survives climate change?

As the effects of man-made climate change become increasingly erratic, species across the planet grasp tenuously at survival. Current estimations show that roughly 20% of all known species face extinction if the effects of global warming are not combatted, with the Anthropocene (the current geological era of humanity) often being described as the beginning of the Earth’s next mass extinction. Whilst the danger of unmitigated climate change is a very real fear, much of it arises from uncertainty: we don’t know what’s going to happen, and this unknown future is terrifying. We can make some educated guesses, one being that life will indeed survive the climate crisis - perhaps just without humanity.

One of the most prominent fears is that the Earth will become completely uninhabitable, with only a barren wasteland as the remainder of a formerly lush world. Such an apocalyptic scenario is unlikely, however; humans may go extinct, but life has managed (and continues) to thrive in areas that most people can’t even fathom. Take the bottom of the ocean for example. With crushing pressures and a complete lack of light, any human would find themselves a red stain dissipating in the abyss before they even realized it. However, the inhospitality of such an environment has not prevented life from surviving and even flourishing at such depths , with crabs, octopuses and other bottom feeders eking out a quiet and somewhat bare-bones existence on the seafloor. Such life is so remote, so alien to the surface world that many of these creatures will undoubtedly persevere through the climate crisis. On the other side of the spectrum, the harshest deserts contain a wealth of animals perfectly adapted to the parched landscape. In the Sahara Desert, temperatures can fluctuate from 40 degrees Celsius during the day to below freezing at night, forcing the local flora and fauna to adapt to this everchanging environment. These animals, predominantly small mammals, reptiles, and insects are perhaps some of the best equipped to deal with climate change, as the already harsh environment they call home has shaped them into remarkable survivalists. Whilst there is a plethora of sturdier animals that will undoubtedly persevere through the climate crisis, some species will be hit harder than others. Ectothermic (cold-blooded) animals such as frogs and lizards have been some of the most vulnerable groups to climate change, with amphibians often being severely impacted when they can’t adjust quickly enough to their changing environment.

Yet, some species might flourish in the changing climates; One such example, that has been thriving amidst global warming, is the humble jellyfish. Despite their name, jellyfish are not really fish: most fish are in fact more related to humans than to jellyfish. Found in every ocean across the world, jellyfish have remained virtually unchanged in their 700 million years upon this planet and are amongst the oldest of animal groups. While the warming of the oceans has led to phenomena like coral bleaching and ocean acidification, jellyfish have remained relatively untouched by such phenomena, and their populations have exploded in size when many other marine animals have suffered, mostly due to the low ecological needs of jellyfish. When one part of the food chain grows exponentially, the consequences can be dire. Overabundant jellyfish populations outcompete more vulnerable species, and the rising water temperatures brings jellyfish into areas that they’re not native to, turning them into an invasive species. Furthermore, while most species are harmless to people, several species, such as the Box Jellyfish, possess potentially lethal stings, and like all other Jellyfish species, their numbers are growing, and they are being seen near populated areas in increasing frequency. Whilst emblematic of their resilience, the climate change which has brought them success will undoubtedly have repercussions for marine life everywhere.

Another likely survivor is the cockroach. Scorned as vermin, the life of a cockroach is not a glamorous one, yet they have survived and thrived when countless other species have gone extinct. Capable of surviving radiation levels several times over what’s lethal for humans, cockroaches’ sheer resilience can be seen in their ability to survive for weeks without a head, thanks to a secondary nerve cluster in their thorax. Combined with their ability for consuming a huge variety of materials - including human waste - and their uncanny ability to infiltrate and multiply in human settlements, their survival amidst climate change shouldn’t come as a surprise, and it’s safe to say that whatever world we create in the next century, cockroaches will be a part of it.

Regardless of the world we create through anthropogenic climate change, the question is not whether we will destroy life on Earth, but which life will survive in the world we make.