Koh Chang Hotel Market Update April 2020
Opposite travel patterns of domestic and international visitors result in balanced year-round hotel demand Island-wide tourism receipts total THB13.9 billion in 2019
Visitor Arrivals - Trat vs. Koh Chang No. of Visitors
“Koh Chang is an island hideaway in the Gulf of Thailand, within drivable proximity to Bangkok. The destination is highly leveraged with domestic tourists, mainly from Bangkok and nearby provinces. Thai visitors usually travel during the low season from April to September. During the peak period from December to February, most hotels run over 90% occupancy, with high demand coming from long-haul European visitors, with up to a two-week average length of stay.
2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2017
In 2019, Koh Chang welcomed 1.3-million visitors in total. The Thai Baht appreciation last year affected hotel guests’ behavior and purchasing power, hence many hotels had to adjust room rates, resulting in a decline in RevPAR of 3%.
Trat
2019 Koh Chang
YTD Feb 2019
YTD Feb 2020*
Source: : Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research; *Projected
Looking forward post COVID-19, domestic demand is expected to see early recovery. Due to increasing hotel supply in the upscale and upper-upscale market segments in recent years, competition amongst four-star hotels is anticipated to mute average room rate growth in the short term.”
The COVID – 19 crisis in Q1 2020 has negatively affected hotel occupancy in terms of early check-outs, cancellations, and a flat trend in new bookings. As of February 2020, it is estimated that the number of visitors to Koh Chang dropped by 18% year-to-date.
Trends
2018
Bill Barnett, Managing Director, C9 Hotelworks
Forward Outlook
•
Tourism arrival growth in Koh Chang has been positive over the past few years, with a 5-year CAGR growth of 5.3%.
•
For hotel supply, registered properties will grow to 281 establishments with new 8,159 keys by the end of 2022.
•
Diversity in source markets is increasing, with the current primary mix being domestic travelers (69%), Europe (22%), and Asia (6%).
•
As part of the EEC, the development plan for Sattahip Commercial Port includes a new ferry service from Sattahip to Koh Chang via Pattaya.
•
Wholesale FITs from Europe is a major source of business. Other overseas demand comes from OTAs and Mainland Chinese tour series.
•
By 2022, there will be two hotel developments entering the market, namely Splash Hotel (40 keys) and Marriott Koh Chang Hotel (240 keys).
TOURISM Tourism Receipts
Domestic vs. International Tourism Demand
Others 10% Domestic 69%
Asia 20%
International 31%
13,426 million Domestic THB 6,748 million International THB 6,677 million Total
Europe 70%
Source: Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research. Data as of FY2018
Top 5 International Source Markets
Top Emerging Markets
No. of Visitors
%
50,000
50
40,000
40
30,000
30
20,000
20
10,000
10
0
0 German y
Russia
Mainland China
2018
Sweden
U.K.
Mainland China +45%
France +39%
USA +20%
Russia +19%
Germany +18%
Growth Rate
Source: Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research. Data as of FY2018
Visitor vs. Seasonality Trend No. of Visitors
Average Rainfall (mm) Highest
140,000
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
Lowest
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr 2016
May 2017
Jun
Jul 2018
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Average Rainfall
Source: Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
2
C9 Koh Chang Hotel Market Update: April 2020
HOTEL MARKET Hotel Room Night Demand – Trat Province
% 100 90
82
COVID-19 Crisis
83
79
80
76
72
Occupancy
70
61
60 50
67 55
50
72
67
64
67
52
40 30 20 10 Jan.19 Feb.19 Mar.19 Apr.19 May.19 Jun.19 Jul.19 Aug.19 Sep.19 Oct.19 Nov.19 Dec.19 Jan.20 Feb.20 Source: Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Average Length of Stay
Hotel Supply Growth & Pipeline Number of Hotels
No. of Keys 8,500
300
8,000
250
3.2 days Thai 2.6 days International 4.6 days Average
200
7,500
150 7,000
100
6,500
50
6,000
0 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Keys
2019 2020* 2021* 2022*
Hotels
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Source: Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research. *2020 – 2022 projected
Hotel Supply by Area
Accommodation by Type 5% 9%
25%
26%
White Sand Beach
Bungalows and Villas
Klong Prao Beach
Registered Hotels
Klong Son Beach Kai Bae Beach
15%
17%
Others
Guesthouses 86%
17%
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
C9 Koh Chang Hotel Market Update: April 2020
3
About C9 Hotelworks C9 Hotelworks is an internationally recognized consulting firm with extensive experience in the Asia Pacific region. Its core business focus includes: • • •
Hotel and Resort Development Asset Management / Ownership Representation Project Feasibility and Analysis
Key competencies include international hotel operator search, selection and contract negotiation, mixed use hotel and residential planning and operation reviews. A wide range of both institutional and private developers and a comprehensive portfolio of completed projects give C9 the skill set and background to focus on key issues, evaluate complex ones and assist clients in achieving solid results. Based in Phuket, Thailand and led by Managing Director Bill Barnett, who has 30 years of experience in Asia Pacific, the firm is well positioned to serve an increasing demanding marketplace.
C9 Hotelworks Company Limited 9 Lagoon Road, Cherngtalay, Thalang, Phuket, 83110, Thailand (Office located at the entrance of Laguna Phuket) T: +66(0)76 325 345 www.c9hotelworks.com info@c9hotelworks.com