Samui Hotel Market Update February 2017
Strong arrivals trend from Mainland China shifts seasonality, as hotels gain from occupancy hike Surat Thani Airport is the main gateway for midscale segment
Domestic vs. International Airport Arrivals International Passengers
“Total arrivals to Samui International Airport are projected over 1.2 million passengers in 2016. This is a substantial rise from 2015, with y-o-y growth of 22% last year compared to 7% the previous year. While domestic routes remain a key feeder of tourists to the island, the uptrend has been stimulated by an increase of international flight schedules and new codeshare routes. This has more than doubled overseas travelers whereas the domestic sector grew by 10%.
Domestic Passengers
100,000
300,000
80,000
250,000 200,000
60,000
150,000 40,000
100,000
20,000
50,000
0 Q1 Q2 2015 International Arrivals 2015 Domestic Arrivals
Q3
0 Q4 2016 International Arrivals* 2016 Domestic Arrivals* *Forecast for Q4 2016
The surge in international arrivals was due to the accelerated growth of Mainland Chinese travelers, which increased by 61% from January through October of last year. This phenomenon has shifted the seasonality trend, with hotel operators now experiencing two peak periods in December to January and July to August. Market-wide occupancy also increased from 68% to 72% as a result of the expanding Chinese source market.
However, the impact of ‘Chinacation’ has not cut hotels’ average rates as the destination mainly attracts FITs. With steady growth of airlift to Surat Thani Airport, Samui is also expected to attract a broader market of midscale and upscale segments with pipeline hotels focusing on these tourists.” Bill Barnett, Managing Director, C9 Hotelworks
Trends
Forward Outlook
Source: Samui International Airport and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
•
Flights from Singapore topped overseas passenger arrivals to Samui International Airport with 45% market share, followed by Hong Kong and Kuala Lumpur.
•
Bangkok Airways plan to increase flights from Chengdu to daily service by Q2 2017, while the announced Chongqing route has been delayed due to technical factors.
•
Market-wide hotel average daily rate (ADR) for FY2016 for international standard properties was THB7,874 according to STR, which leads mainstream Thai destinations.
•
Current hotel pipeline to the island is 1,217 keys with most properties in the three- and four-star tiers, accounting for 66% of total incoming new supply.
•
Total passengers flying from Mainland China to Surat Thani make up 71% of direct overseas arrivals to the Provincial airport.
•
Expansion of Samui International Airport is now in the bid process for architectural design with a contract budget of THB1 billion.
TOURISM Airline Indicators • A total of 1,245,757 estimated passengers arrived at Samui International Airport last year on scheduled and non-scheduled domestic and international flights. Samui International Airport Arrivals Number of Passengers
Number of Flights
150,000
1,500
125,000
1,250
100,000
1,000
75,000
750
50,000
500
25,000
250
0
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2015 Arrivals 2015 Inbound Flights
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 Arrivals* 2016 Inbound Flights*
Passengers arriving on domestic flights represent 79% of total travelers
*Projected numbers for Oct-Dec 2016 Source: Samui International Airport and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Surat Thani Airport Arrivals Number of Flights
Number of Passengers 120,000
700
100,000
600 500
80,000
400
60,000
300
40,000
200
20,000
100
0
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2015 Arrivals 2015 Inbound Flights
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 Arrivals 2016 Inbound Flights
Surat Thani Airport is becoming a major gateway to Samui, with inbound flights up 30% last year
Source: Thailand Department of Airports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Top 5 Key Geographic Source Market Trend Number of Passengers 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Mainland China
Australia
United Kingdom 2014 Jan - Oct
Germany 2015 Jan - Oct
France 2016 Jan - Oct
Source: Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
2
C9 Hotel Market Update: February 2017
Mainland China represents 31% of market share, while Germany and France moved up in the Top 5 overseas source markets
HOTEL OVERVIEW Hotel Performance Performance Comparison 2016 vs. 2015
RevPAR increased by 6.62%, averaging THB5,688, as occupancy gained by 6.52% last year
% 73
In THB 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
72 71 70 69 68 67 66 65 2016
2015 RevPAR
ADR
Occupancy Source: STR
Hotel Supply • Currently, Samui has a total of 593 tourist accommodation establishments with 22,309 keys as of 2016, which include both registered and unregistered properties. There are 654 keys expected to come on stream by 2017, with the highest concentration in Chaweng. Hotel Supply Growth
Growth of hotel supply slowed down with 722 new keys added in 2016
Number of Keys
%
25,000
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Total Keys
Growth Rate
Source: Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Hotel Name Holiday Inn Express Bophut Holiday Inn Resort Bophut The Library Koh Samui Sala Chaweng COSI Hotel by Centara Ibis Style Samui The Park Island Resort Sofitel So Samui X2 Vibe Samui Nautilus Residence The Ritz-Carlton, Samui *Additional keys for existing hotel
Location Bophut Bophut Chaweng Chaweng Chaweng Chaweng Chaweng Choeng Mon Plai Laem Plai Laem
Keys 200 150 20* 140 150 129 130 83 40 175
Opening Date Q4 2018 Q4 2018 Jun-2017 Q3 2017 Q3 2017 Q3 2017 TBA 2019 Q2 2017 Jul-2017 Source: C9 Hotelworks Market Research
C9 Hotel Market Update: February 2017
3
10 Year Growth in Samui Airport Arrivals & Hotel Supply Number of Passengers
Hotel Keys Many guesthouses were closed during the global financial crisis
1,200,000
25,000
1,000,000
20,000
800,000
15,000
600,000
10,000
400,000
5,000
200,000 0
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
International Arrivals
2013
2014
Domestic Arrivals
2015
2016 Hotel Keys
Supply and Demand Compound Annual Growth DEMAND
7%
Growth in total passenger arrivals at Samui Airport
Chinese arrivals
SUPPLY
outranked
5%
Australians as the biggest international source market since 2015
Increase in number of hotel keys
How does Samui compare to other select Thai destinations?
1
2
3
4
5
Bangkok
Phuket
Chiang Mai
Samui
Krabi
138,186
81,727
33,593
22,309
19,467
Hotel Keys (2016F)
Hotel Keys (2016)
Hotel Keys (2016)
Hotel Keys (2016)
Hotel Keys (2016)
Data refers to hotel keys in registered and unregistered tourist accommodation establishments Source: Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sports and C9 Hotelworks Market Research