China's Upcoming 5th Generation Leadership

KEY FIGURES IN THE FIFTH-GENERATION LEADERSHIP The incoming Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC), due to be established at the Party Congress in autumn 2012, will reveal the ‘fifth generation’ of Chinese leaders.

The concept of ‘generations’ of Chinese leadership was first introduced by Deng in 1989. Mao Zedong’s cohort, which ruled between 1949 and 1978, was considered the first generation. Deng’s, which ruled between 1978 and 1989, was the second.

Since then, each generation is expected to take control for ten years, encompassing two Party Congresses.

The fifth generation will take command between 2012 and 2022. Compared to their predecessors, they are better educated and, moreover, educated primarily in the social sciences and humanities, as opposed to the previous generations of trained engineers (such as Hu Jintao himself). They also have more substantial political experience in governing China’s provinces. Most of them have notable international experience, and speak foreign languages. Seven to nine of the following figures will form the new PBSC. Xi Jinping (born 1953) will assume the post of CCP Secretary General and the post of President of the PRC next year, becoming China’s top leader. Xi is the son of a revolutionary leader who came to prominence during the Deng Xiaoping era, therefore he is known as a ‘princeling’, the term used to designate the child of a former high-ranking party official. During the Cultural Revolution he worked in the countryside alongside peasants in northern Shaanxi Province. In 1982 his rise in the party ranks started, when he was appointed the Party Secretary of a county in Hebei Province. But he mostly made a name for himself by successfully governing two coastal provinces, Fujian and Zhejiang, and also serving as Party Secretary of Shanghai. Xi offsets his emphasis on economic development with occasional traditional Marxist rhetoric, which makes him appealing to both reformists and leftists.

Li Keqiang (born 1955) is expected to be confirmed as the PBSC’s no. 2 or no. 3 member at the Party Congress, and to assume the post of Premier during the next National People's Congress in March 2013. The holder of a doctorate in economics from Peking University, he is considered to be very close to the outgoing leader Hu Jintao. As a student, he was allegedly pro-Western oriented, as reported by international media. Li has been a full member of the Central Committee of the CCP since 1997, and member of the PBSC since 2007; his road to these positions went through the China Communist Youth League, where he rose to the post of First Secretary in the 1990s; he was subsequently appointed Party Secretary of two Provinces – Henan and Liaoning respectively.

Li Yuanchao (born 1950) currently serves as Director of the CCP Organization Department. Li is another protégé of Hu Jintao, who rose through the CCYL. He subsequently had a successful tenure in Jiangsu Province as the Party Secretary.

He is a known reformer and ‘party builder’ and is well connected within the Party.

Yu Zhengsheng (born 1945) is currently the Party Secretary of Shanghai, serving his second term on the Politburo. He served as Minster of Construction, and later on Party Secretary of the inland Hubei Province. A princeling himself, Yu maintains good relations with both Jiang Zemin and Hu’s factions, and is considered to be closely connected to the family of the late Deng Xiaoping.

Zhang Dejiang (born 1946) is currently a Vice Premier serving his second term on the PB, and has been recently appointed as Chongqing Party Secretary in the aftermath of the Bo Xilai scandal. He is considered to belong to the former leader Jiang Zemin's clique, and, unusually, obtained a degree in economics in North Korea. He has governed Jilin and Zhejiang provinces, and was later assigned to run Guangdong Province, one of China’s economic power centres. He is seen as leftist, supporting state-owned enterprises and monopolies.

Liu Yandong (born 1945), dubbed ‘the most powerful woman in China’, is currently a State Councilor (equivalent to a vice premier), and a member of the PB; she is likely to enter the PBSC. If she does, she will become the first woman to do so in the PRC’s history. As a close associate of Hu Jintao, she is considered one of the best connected politicians in China – she has close personal ties to Jiang Zemin as well.

Her professional experience has focused on cultural-educational affairs; she was head of the United Front Work department of the CCP from 2002 to 2007.

Wang Qishan (born 1948) is currently a Vice Premier and Politburo member. Wang rose through China’s banking and finance sector, but made a name for himself as a tough politician when he was called upon to deal with the outbreak of a severe epidemic disease as the acting Mayor of Beijing in 2003 (he was confirmed as Mayor the following year). He is viewed as a forceful economic reformer.

Zhang Gaoli (born 1946) is currently Party Secretary of Tianjin and a member of the PB. He rose through China’s petroleum sector, and made a name for himself during his tenure in Shenzhen, one of China’s five Special Economic Zones, and was later transferred to govern Shandong, one of China’s most important provinces. He is considered close to Jiang Zemin.

Liu Yunshan (born 1947) is currently a Politburo member and Director of the Party’s Propaganda Department. He is likely to enter the PBSC and oversee the Party’s ideological work, which mostly involves shaping public opinion through the statecontrolled media.

Wang Yang (born 1955) is the second-youngest member of the Politburo (only Li Keqiang, the next Premier, is younger), and is currently the Party Secretary of Guangdong Province. Having begun his career in the Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL), he owed his rapid rise to the outgoing leader Hu Jintao. He is famous for devising the so-called ‘Guangdong Model,’ a combination of marketoriented economic policies and pro-democratic political reform.