Q3 2022 New York City Market Update

THE STEIN TEAM

New York City Q3 2022 Market Update

PUCK PENTHOUSE: 293 LAFAYETTE STREET, PH IV

MARKET

The story this Market Report paints is a more pessimistic one than deserved. The reality is that we should not be comparing this last quarter to any quarter in 2020 or 2021 – as both those years where outliers – exceptions to the rule and norms. As we all know, 2020 were the dark days of Covid, when our markets were shut down for months with very low sales activity. In 2021 on the other hand, the markets came back to life due to pent up demand, and was one of Manhattan’s strongest sales years ever.

So we must look and compare our market today to that of 2019. Similar to 2019, we are operating at relatively “normal” levels of supply and demand. With that said, when you look at our current market trends, they are negative – fueled by rising interest rates and a very wobbly stock market. The perception is worse than the reality but perception shapes reality eventually. This all leads to my advice to buyers: they should be ready and looking for opportunity.

In today’s economic environment, sellers recognize the hay days are over. What does this mean?

Only truly serious and motivated sellers will be listing their homes for sale. Many of the more opportunistic sellers will begin to take their homes off the market – electing to either rent or hold onto them. With more serious sellers, there is more opportunity for buyers. So keep your eyes out, view as much property as possible, opportunity is there for the near future.

Once interest rate hikes stabilize, you can expect to see a shift in perception that will lead to a change in the current downward trajectory. If you are a buyer, you want to be bidding on the slide down. Once the market shifts, it will be too late.

Market Overview

manhattan

In comparison to Q3 2021, in Q3 2022, the number of transactions dropped 4% marketwide, with the over $10M market having the most sizeable drop, being down 11%. Although the over $10M market had the largest drop in number of sales, the average sales price increased by 5%.

4,485

Closed Sales -4%

Change in Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Change in Average Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales vs. Inventory Average / Median Sales Price

$2,500,000

$2,000,000

$1,500,000

$1,000,000

$500,000

$-

Sales Inventory

Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

{2022 v 2021}

-1% -1%

Number of Closed Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price UNDER $3 Million

3Q:22 3,830 $1.18M $975K 3Q:21 3,972 $1.19M $985K

{2022 v 2021}

BETWEEN $3 - 10 Million

$10 Million

3Q:22

3Q:21

3Q:22

Price Points

4% 6%

$4.88M $4.37M

$4.71M $4.10M

5%

$19.32M $15.25M

$18.38M $14.08M

-0.2% -1%

$1.97M $1.18M

$1.98M $1.20M

Inventory

CONDOS & CO-OPS

Number of Active Listings

The historic absorption range of equilibrium for the New York City market area is 6-8 months. We ended Q3 2022 with 6,681 active units on the market. The absorption rate of active inventory was 4.4 months in Q3 2022. This statistic means that it would take 4.4 months to absorb the active inventory that is currently on the market based upon the rate of sales over the last 6 months. Based on the same calculation, it would take less than 5 months to absorb the current inventory priced below $4M, about 9 months for inventory priced between $4M-$10M, just over one year for inventory priced between $10-20M, and about 14 months to absorb properties priced above $20M given the current inventory in Manhattan.

Absorption Rate

Line of Equilibrium

absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6-month period.

Average Days on Market Listing Discount

Listing

Average Days on Market vs. Listing Discount

Days on

The

Market

City

Condos Over

Closed Sales Count,

Average Sales Price & Highest Sales Price

Average Sales Price $32.62M $18.58M $16.80M $17.50M $18.38M $22.57M $14.41M $19.51M $19.32M

Highest Sales Price $99.90M $65.59M $41.00M $82.50M $66.00M $188.00M $46.96M $101M $75.89M

Sales in the luxury price sector, above $10M, decreased by 14% compared to last quarter. However, the average sales price in this sector is still higher than Q3 2021.

Average Sales Price vs. # of Closed Sales

Condos

| 2022} manhattan

In Q3 2022, 1,922 condominium transactions closed representing a 16% decrease from 2021.

As compared to Q3 2021, the average sales prices in the condominium sector increased 6%. Price per square foot for all price points rose 9% above 2021 levels to $2,117.

1,922

Closed Sales -16%

Change in Closed Sales {2022 vs. 2021}

$2.83M

Average Sales Price 6%

Change in Average Sale Price {2022 vs. 2021}

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price

$4,000,000

$3,500,000

$3,000,000

$2,500,000

$2,000,000

$1,500,000

$1,000,000

$500,000

$0

UNDER $3 Million

Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price Average Price/Sq. Ft.

1%

1,460 $1.44M $1.33M $1,494 3Q:21 1,756 $1.45M $1.32M $1,428

v

BETWEEN $3 - 10 Million

ABOVE $10 Million

$5.04M $4.70M $2,338

$4.78M $4.30M $2,115

$20.18M $15.75M $4,301

$18.81M $14.60M $4,184

-0.3%

$2.83M $1.64M $2,117

2,287 $2.67M $1.65M $1,946

Co-Ops

The 2,563 closed coop transactions in Q3 2022 represented an 7% increase in number of sales compared to Q3 2021. The average and median sales prices ticked up at 1% and 4% respectively. For co-ops above $10M, average and median prices dropped 12% and 7% respectively.

2,563

Closed

7%

Change in Closed Sales

Average Sales Price 1%

Change in Average Sales Price

-

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price

$1,600,000

$1,400,000

$1,200,000

$1,000,000

$800,000

$600,000

$400,000

$200,000

$0

Q3:20 Q4:20 Q1:21 Q2:21 Q3:21 Q4:21 Q1:22 Q2:22 Q3:22

Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price UNDER $3 Million

{2022 v 2021} 7% 3% 4% 3Q:22 2,371 $1.02M $815K 3Q:21 2,216 $985K $780K

BETWEEN $3 - 10 Million

ABOVE $10 Million

{2022 v 2021} 10% 1% 7% 3Q:22 181 $4.54M $4.00M 3Q:21 165 $4.49M $3.75M

{2022 v 2021} -17% -12% -7%

3Q:22 11 $13.95M $12.19M 3Q:21 13 $15.95M $13.11M

{2022 v 2021}

ALL Price Points

1% 4%

3Q:22 2,563 $1.32M $860K 3Q:21 2,394 $1.31M $830K

city

Neighborhood Highlights

Upper East Side | north of 58th street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue

CONDOS Q3 2022 Q3 2021

% Change

Closed Sales 213 325 -34%

Average Sales Price $2.71M $2.56M 6%

Median Sales Price $1.70M $1.75M -3%

COOPS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 722 743 -3%

Average Sales Price $1.72M $1.65M 4%

Median Sales Price $999K $990K 1%

Upper West Side | north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, CPW to Riverside Drive (including CPS)

CONDOS Q3 2022 Q3 2021

% Change

Closed Sales 357 362 -1%

Average Sales Price $3.57M $3.93M -9%

Median Sales Price $1.80M $1.83M -2%

COOPS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 518 456 13%

Average Sales Price $1.41M $1.57M -10%

Median Sales Price $995K $1.08M -8%

Midtown | north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street

CONDOS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 268 344 -22%

Average Sales Price $2.13M $1.63M 31%

Median Sales Price $1.20M $1.23M -3%

COOPS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 298 349 -15%

Average Sales Price $754K $746K 1%

Median Sales Price $630K $615K 2%

Uptown | north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side

CONDOS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 164 208 -21%

Average Sales Price $1.07M $1.17M -8%

Median Sales Price $908K $985K -8%

COOPS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 217 184 18%

Average Sales Price $659K $590K 12%

Median Sales Price $570K $529K 8%

Neighborhood Highlights

CONDOS

Downtown | South of 34th Street through TriBeCa Financial District / Battery Park

Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 770 822 -6%

Average Sales Price $3.42M $3.23M 6%

Median Sales Price $2.30M $2.21M 4%

COOPS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 722 638 13%

Average Sales Price $1.30M $1.25M 4%

Median Sales Price $910K $883K 3%

CONDOS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 150 226 -33%

Average Sales Price $1.45M $1.76M -18%

Median Sales Price $997K $1.37M -27%

COOPS Q3 2022 Q3 2021 % Change

Closed Sales 86 24 258%

Average Sales Price $1.27M $1.03M 24%

Median Sales Price $1.24M $817K 51%

Total Number of Sales by Neighborhood

800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

600

400

200

0

Q3:20 Q4:20 Q1:21 Q2:21 Q3:21 Q4:21 Q1:22 Q2:22 Q3:22

Uptown Upper East Side Midtown

FiDi / Battery Park Upper West Side Downtown

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood

$4,000,000

$3,500,000

$3,000,000

$2,500,000

$2,000,000

$1,500,000

$1,000,000

$0 $500,000

Q3:20 Q4:20 Q1:21 Q2:21 Q3:21 Q4:21 Q1:22 Q2:22 Q3:22

Uptown Upper East Side Midtown

FiDi / Battery Park Upper West Side Downtown

Testimonials

“My wife and I have used Robin and Jeremy Stein as our real estate brokers for the past 15 years, representing us in the sale of four apartments in New York City. We have used the Stein Team to represent us because of their professionalism, market knowledge, hard work and ability to maximize value. In every instance, they have dedicated the appropriate resources, time and effort in managing the sale process resulting in a successful transaction.”

THOMAS

“Jeremy and Robin are the only people that I would trust as my brokers. They take the time to understand precisely what I am looking for, and as a result, constantly deliver the right stuff. Whether I’m on the buy side or the sell side, Jeremy and Robin always protect my interests, yet still manage to get the deal done. Both their strategy and execution are brilliant, and there’s no one else I’d want in my corner when it comes to residential real estate.”

- ERIC

“Jeremy and Robin are professional, knowledgeable and extremely effective. In addition, we always know that they will put our interests first. Twice, they have talked us out of purchasing homes, and each time something better came along later, just as they had suggested it would. We recommend Jeremy and Robin wholeheartedly.”

- ED & LAUREN

“Thank you for the great job you and your team did in helping to sell our home. We always felt well supported, from our earliest meetings through the final closing. The time, effort, energy and focus that you showed really made a difference, and we appreciate the high level of communication with your team throughout the process. We would highly recommend your group in the future!”

- MICHAEL & LAURIE

“Your broker becomes the most important person in your life when finding a home for your family. Jeremy and Robin were trusted advisors during these times in our life. I wouldn’t trust anyone else with that responsibility.”

- WILL

THE STEIN

Select Current Offerings

THE STEIN TEAM

Select Sales

1220 PARK AVENUE, MAISONETTE

Hill

Closed for $5,850,000

1 MORTON SQUARE, PHC West Village

Closed for $4,200,000

for $4,250,000

STREET,

for $3,700,000