Relationship between Facebook Campaigning and Success of Women in the General Election held

International Journal of Communication and Media Studies (IJCMS) ISSN (P): 2250–0014; ISSN (E): Applied Vol. 10, Issue 3, Jun 2020, 39-50 © TJPRC Pvt. Ltd.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FACEBOOK CAMPAIGNING AND SUCCESS OF WOMEN IN THE GENERAL ELECTION HELD FOR THE LOWER HOUSE OF AFGHANISTAN PARLIAMENT IN 2018 SAYEED EBRAHIM DARWISHEAN Research Scholar, Department of Journalism & Mass Communication, University College of Arts and Social Sciences, Osmania University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India ABSTRACT This study focuses on answering the question “Is there any relationship between Facebook Campaigning and women successes in wining votes for securing seats in Afghanistan 2018 Parliamentary Election?” And to test the hypothesis, ‘More Posts by or on the Behalf of female candidates on Facebook, motivated more people to vote in favor of those women, who have won the election, becoming the members of Afghanistan Parliament in the future.’ This study aimed to find out whether there is any relationship between Facebook campaigning and the votes female candidates won in 2018 Parliamentary Election of Afghanistan. This study is guided by interactivity as a process – related variable, focusing on

Share, and View variables have a strong relationship with the number of Vote variable, while the variable 'Like' declares a medium and the variable 'Comment’, demonstrates a low correlation with the variable of Vote in this study.

KEYWORDS: Facebook Campaign, Interactivity, Pearson Correlation, Social Media & Women Success in Election

Received: Mar 25, 2020; Accepted: Apr 15, 2020; Published: May 26, 2020; Paper Id.: IJCMSJUN20204

1. INTRODUCTION Effective campaign is the key to success in any elections. Social media, Facebook in particular, is the most prominent platform that adds effectiveness to the campaign. Borah (2016) stated that social media influences every aspects of human lives. The advancement of mobile technology plays an imperative role in shaping the impact of social media; mobile devices dominate the total minutes that people these days spend online across the world (Simplilearn, 2019). Simplilearn (2019) quoted the finding of 'Pew Research' that around 62 percent of Americans receives news from social media. The major impact, the flipside of social media, according to Simplilearn (2019) is that "social media is slowly killing real activism and replacing it with ‘slacktivism’".Simplilearn (2019) stated that about a quarter of the world's population use Facebook, and nearly 80 percent of all internet users in America are on this platform of social interaction.

In Afghanistan, around six million Afghans use social media Facebook in particular (87%) (Darivoa News, 2016). Through social media, particularly Facebook is mostly used for friendships, chatting, interaction, posting, commenting and etc. However, these parts of media are also used for political purposes. Social media has become a key for maintaining and strengthening social relationships (Rechards, 2010). Politicians in Afghanistan advocate social media in any elections, to guarantee seats in parliament or take over the control of power in the country.

Recently, Afghanistan has experienced parliamentary election, in order to fill the seats in the House of Representative, Lower House, with new elected members. Along men, many women had also been nominated to

Original Article

the way in which, participants share information to one another. And, the findings of this study demonstrate that Post,

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Sayeed Ebrahim Darwishean

secure seats in Lower House of the parliament. The result announced by Afghanistan Independent Election Commission (IEC) indicates that a few of the nominated women have succeeded in the competition; women candidates have secured 9 seats out of 33 in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan (IEC, 2018). Politicians, both men and women, use social media, especially Facebook and Twitter, for political purposes, particularly at the time of political course of actions such as nationwide process of elections. Female candidates from Kabul constituency, who succeeded in 2018 election, also used Facebook for their campaign. Now, the question is that ‘Is there any relationships between Facebook Campaigning and success of women in Afghanistan 2018 Parliamentary Election?

There might be many factors behind the success of women in the election, but this study focuses on co-relation between Facebook Campaign and women success in Afghanistan Parliamentary Election 2018.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Bright, Jonathan, Hale, Scott, et, al (2019) studied social media campaigning during 2015 and 2017 elections in UK, and found out that political Tweet does help to win votes, much cheaper than other campaign spending.

Stier, Sebastian, Baleier, Arnim, et, al (2018) studied German Federal 2013Election by focusing on "whether election candidates address the topics most important to the mass audience, and to what extent their communication is shaped by the characteristics of Facebook and Twitter". Their finding shows that candidates and their direct audiences prioritized different topic of their own other than mass audiences by human interpretable language model (Stier, Sebastian, Baleier, Arnim, et, al, 2018).

Bora, Borismita (2016) did a content analysis of the official Facebook post of U.S. presidential candidates in 2008 and 2012 using theoretical concepts from functional theory, political advertising, emotional appeals, and social endorsement. The findings of this study demonstrated that 'John McCain and Mitt Romney attacked more, while Barack Obama applauded more', and it also indicated that the Republican candidates used higher percentage of fear appeals, while Barack Obama used humor and enthusiasm in his posts' (Bora, 2016).

Ayankoya, Calitz, and Cullen (2015) conducted an explorative study on political marketing in South Africa which indicates that electorates are willing to engage in political issues on social media, and also suggest a conceptual framework at the end of this study. The study also suggests that social media marketing should be synchronized with other marketing strategies (Ayankoya, Calitz, and Cullen, 2015).

Sadashivam (2019) stated that social media facilitates new form of interaction and engagement in India, and political debates are driven by likes, comments, shares, etc. Political parties like BJP 1, Congress Party2, etc. utilized social media on 16th Lok Sabha elections, but the number of people participated were limited. According to Kantar IMRB Report, this time around 566 million (as of December 2018) used Internet in India (Sadashivam, 2016).

The finding of Altai Consulting for Inter news Afghanistan (2017) showed that use and access to internet has increased in last decades, and reached around 12 per cent of the total population of the country. Social media users represent approximately 9 per cent of the population, and are a homogenous group of primarily young, urban, and educated individuals. Close to 80% of social media sampled users declare being between 18 and 30 years old (Altai Consulting for Inter news Afghanistan, 2017). Though social media challenges traditional media, but the impact of social media on the 1 2

Bharatiya Janata Party of India One of the great of political party of India

Impact Factor (JCC): 3.6252

NAAS Rating: 2.52

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society requires more scientific studies (Altai Consulting for Inter news Afghanistan, 2017).

3. DEFINITION AND TERMINOLOGIES 3.1 Interactivity There is no agreement on the definition of interactivity so far. Interactivity as variable tends to be defined as synchronicity, control, rapidity and speed, participation, a variety of choices, directionality, hypertextuality, connectedness, experience, and responsiveness (Ariel and Avidar, 2015). Scholars look at the three different aspects of interaction through research perspective: 1- interactivity as a perception-related variable, focusing on participants’ experiences and self-reports, 2interactivity as a process-related variable, focusing on the ways in which participants transfer information to one another, and 3- interactivity as a medium characteristic, focusing on the technological features of a medium and its ability (Ariel and Avidar, 2015). In this study, the second aspect of interactivity is considered to be applied to the whole process of this research.

3.2 Pearson Correlation It measures the relationship between two or more variables in a linear process in which the relationship between existence (given by a p-value) and strength (given by the coefficient r between -1 and +1) is measured. The significant outcome enables researcher to conclude that a correlation exists between two or more variables in which an absolute value of r of 0.1 is classified as small, an absolute value of 0.3 is classified as medium and of 0.5 is classified as large (Samuels, 2014).

3.3 Social Media Social media is an umbrella term that includes different internet-based media such as mini blogs, video sharing, social networking sites, etc. Millet, Costa, et, al (2016) define social media as "the colonization of the space between traditional broadcast and private dyadic communication, providing people with a scale of group size and degrees of privacy that we have termed scalable sociality". This study only focuses on Facebook as new media that is used as effective medium for the dissemination of political advertisement and messages.

3.4 Facebook Campaign Politicians use social media, Facebook in particular to disseminate their political messages to the audience of their constituencies. For this study, Facebook Campaign means using this platform for interaction with diverse set of audiences for political purposes at the time of election. Thus, women in Afghanistan Parliamentary Election held in 2018 strongly benefited this media for their successes.

3.5 Women Success in Election This means that women who utilized social media particularly Facebook, won votes and secured seats in the Lower House of Afghanistan Bi-houses Parliament.

3.6 Control Variables This study focuses on variables such as vote, like, comments, share, and views, but variables like speech, events, advertisement, family status, background, social status etc. that might affect the successfulness of any candidates in any election considered as control variables.

4. AIMS AND PROBLEM STATEMENT www.tjprc.org

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4.1 Aim of the Study The main aim for this study is to find out whether there is any relationship between Facebook Campaigning and the records of votes that female candidates achieved in Afghanistan 2018 Parliamentary Election 4.2 Problem Statement The main problem for this study is to look for the answer of this question ‘Is there any relationship between Facebook Campaigning and women successes in wining seats in Afghanistan 2018 Parliamentary Election’. In addition, it also looks to answer to the two other below questions: 

Q1: Is there any relationship between the numbers of posts on Facebook and the records of votes each female candidate won in Afghanistan 2018 Parliamentary Election?



Q2: Is there any relationship between number of likes, share and views of video clips and the records of votes each succeeded woman achieved in Afghanistan 2018 Parliamentary Election?

To answer these questions, the mean values of posts, likes, shares and views, and the votes are calculated in order

to figure out the relationship between variables.

5. RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS 

This

study

mainly

focuses

on

testing

the

null

and

alternative

hypotheses,

detailed

below.

H0: Facebook Campaign for women, who were announced successful in election, did nothing with the number of votes they achieved in Afghanistan 2018 Parliamentary Election. 

H1: More posts by or on behalf of female candidates on Facebook motivated more people to vote in favor of the women, who won the election as future members of Afghanistan Parliament.

6. METHODOLOGY The methodology for this study is Pearson Correlation, looking to find out the value of relationship between number of posts on Facebook, Facebook Campaigning, and the records of votes that succeeded women achieved in Afghanistan 2018 Parliamentary Election. Correlation researcher investigates the characteristics of a group to discover the extent to which the characteristics vary together (Simon and Goes, 2011). Simon and Goes (2011) correlation study is also called ex and facto.

Correlational study shows the relationships between variables by such techniques as cross-tabulation and correlations (Simon and Goes, 2011).

7. SAMPLING METHOD AND DATA ANALYSIS 7.1 Sampling The population, universe of this study includes women candidates for the membership of the Lower House of Afghanistan in 2018 election from Kabul constituency. There have been 120 nominees from Kabulin the final list of Afghanistan Election Commission (IEC, 2018) contested for only 9 out of 33 seats, allocated for women in Kabul province.

Afghanistan constitution has stated that at least two females shall be the elected members of the House of People from each province (Afghanistan Constitution. Art.83. §2). IEC (2018) announces 9 women plus 24 men as preliminary winner of Kabul seats in the house of people. Thus, the winners are deliberately sampled for this study.

Impact Factor (JCC): 3.6252

NAAS Rating: 2.52

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After the preliminary result announcement by the Afghanistan Independent Election Commission (IEC), the Facebook Accounts of the announced winners were searched, monitored and data were collected. There were different pages or accounts in favor of the candidates, but two methods were used in order to verify ownership of the pages or accounts: 1- a text message was sent to the messenger of pages or accounts to verify the officiality of the accounts or pages, and 2- the regularity of posts was monitored since the date of official campaign day, 29 September, to the time of this study. These two methods were used for the verification of the pages or accounts. The second method was used to make sure that their claim for ownership of the accounts is verified because most of them claimed the accounts belong to particular candidate while that was not the case.

After the final result announcement by IEC, slight changes occurred in the preliminary result. Thus, the changes were considered in this study.

Afghanistan Election Law (2016, Art.76. ยง2) fixes 20 days for official campaigning for the candidates of the lower house of Bi- House Parliament of Afghanistan. Thus, the systematic sampling method was used to monitor the odd days and collect data from the posts by or on behalf of female leading candidates, and consequently the number of likes, shares, and views that each post hit gathered as row data for further analysis.

7.2 Data Analysis Correlation analysis is used to assess the strength of relationship between to quantitative variables, which is a statistical method (Franzese and Iuliano, 2019). There might be high or weak correlation in which a high correlation means that two or more variables have strong relationship while weak correlation means that two or more variables hardly related to each other(Franzese and Iuliano, 2019).

In terms of technology, MS Excel was used to analyze data in order to calculate the central tendency, and the values for correlation between the variables. The software helped to draw Figures and graphs, and also calculate mean and standard dispersion.

8. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION 8.1 Share of Votes for Leading Candidates Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan announced the final results of 2018 Parliamentary Election, in which 33 candidates were declared as winners for the Kabul constituency, as new members for the lower of house of Afghanistan Parliament; it includes 9 female candidates who have secured seats in the lower of house of Afghanistan Parliament (IEC, 2018).

According to IEC (2018), votes for female leading candidates ranged from lowest (1149 votes) to highest (2736 votes). Figure 1 provides more details about vote variable of leading female candidates in 2018 parliamentary election of Afghanistan.

Measure of central tendency was computed to summarize the data for the vote variable of leading female candidates. Measure of dispersion, standard dispersion was computed to understand the variability of scores for the vote variable. The following are the result of this analysis; population or N=9, mean or M = 1461.33, standard dispersion or SD = 487.44. When to look at the mean for the vote variable of 9 female candidates, it appears that most candidates who secured seats in parliament got below 2000 votes.

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Figure 1 8.2 Facebook Campaigning Study of female candidates’ activities on Facebook during official campaign days indicates that female candidates like their male counter parts used social media for their campaign during 28 September to 18 October 2018 for 20 days.

Figure 2 shows that the candidate with reg. No. 760 had more and effective activities on Facebook during sampled days3 of official campaign days; that posts by or on behalf of the candidate reaches to 66, much more than others.

And, the lowest posts by or on behalf of candidates reg. Nos. of 377 and 266 that have one post each during sampled days of campaign.

Figure 2 Measure of central tendency computed to summarize the data for the posts variable, which leading female candidates posted on their Facebook Accounts for the period of sampled days of official campaign days. Measure of dispersion was computed to understand the variability scores for the variable of post. The following are the result of this analysis; N=9, M = 16.11, SD = 20.60. When looking at the mean for the posts, it gives the idea that most candidates, who secured seats in parliament, posted at least one message per day on Facebook for the period of sampled days. Figure 2 shows the details for the post by or on behalf of the candidates for the period of sampled days of official campaigning.

8.3 Likes for the Posts; Twist in the Tale The numbers of likes do not necessarily have direct relationship with the number of messages on Facebook that posted by or on behalf of the candidates. For instance, candidate with reg. No. 760 posted thrice of the runner up, but the numbers of 3

Sampled days mean that 10 odd days out of 20 days fixed by Afghanistan Election Law considered for this study.

Impact Factor (JCC): 3.6252

NAAS Rating: 2.52

Relationship between Facebook Campaigning and Success of Women in the General Election held for the Lower House of Afghanistan Parliament in 2018

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her likes are fewer than candidate Reg. No. 375 who received over 22000 likes while her post on Facebook was only 13 for the period of sampled days.

To summarize the data for likes variable, the measure of central tendency was computed for understanding of variability score of likes variable, measure of standard deviation calculated. The result for this analysis is; N = 9, M = 8570.77, SD = 8992.13. Mean of the like variable indicates that the posts of some candidates were more relevant and interesting to their fans, while most of the candidates had fewer likes for their posts. Figure 3 provides more details about the likes status quo of posts on Facebook accounts of leading female candidates.

Figure 3 Figure 3 shows that the posts of candidates with Reg. Nos. of 760, 19, 375 and 575 hit more likes meaning that their posts targeted the interest of their fans on Facebook.

8.4 Comments and Sharing Figure 4 shows that candidate with Reg. No. 375 have better record in interacting with her fans in relation to commenting much more than any ones else in this category, but the sharing record for this nominee is lower as Figure #5 displays.

The posts by or on behalf of candidates Reg. Nos. 375, 575, 760 and 19 have the highest numbers of comments respectively, the remaining five have much fewer comments. Candidates with Reg. Nos. 760, 575, 375 and 119 have more campaign supporter, as they have more sharing records than other ones. For details look at Figure #5

Figure 4 The mean for comment variable is 800 and the standard deviation is 1084. Comment variable indicates that majority of the candidates had fewer interaction in terms of commenting on social media like Facebook.

Measure of central tendency was calculated to summarize data for share variable, and measure of standard deviation was computed to understand the variability scores of share variable. The result for this analysis gives the idea www.tjprc.org

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that the fans of the candidates did not show interest to share the messages of candidates to their own friends'network on Facebook.

Figure 5 The interesting finding, in this study is that two candidates had only one of their posts shared by their fans on Facebook for the period of sampled days.

8.5 Few Videos; More Views Although candidates shared few videos for the period of sampled days (odd days of 20 allotted campaign started from 29 September – 18 October 2018), more fans viewed the clips. These clips mostly include candidates’ meetings, visits, gatherings etc. Figure 6 visualizes the video messages of the candidates for the lower house of Afghanistan Parliament with their constituents that five out of nine at least posted one self-promotion clip. Candidate with Reg. No. 760 posted the most video messages (33 clips) on her Facebook to motivate her followers and fans, the runner up is the candidate with Reg. No. 575 that posted more clips (8 clips) after candidate No.760, while three others posted one clip each.

Figure 6 Despite few video messages on Facebook by or on behalf of the candidates, more fans viewed the airmailed clips.

This means that video messaging receives more attention than any other types of messages especially text messaging. For instance, candidate with Reg. No. 19 posted only one video clip; around 40000 people viewed this clip for the period of sampled days of official campaign days. Moreover, more than 65000 people viewed the 33 posts by or on behalf of the candidate with Reg. No. 760, and 48000 viewed the 8 posts by or on behalf of candidate with Reg. No. 575 for the period of odd days of official campaign days.

Figure 7 displays that candidates with Reg. Nos. 608 and 324, who had only one post of video messaging attracted Impact Factor (JCC): 3.6252

NAAS Rating: 2.52

Relationship between Facebook Campaigning and Success of Women in the General Election held for the Lower House of Afghanistan Parliament in 2018

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the attention of 1879 and 115 fans respectively, and candidates with Reg. Nos. 377, 375, 266 and 631 had no video message on Facebook respectively.

Figure 7

9. RESULTS Samuel (2014) stated that an absolute r value of 0.1 is classified as small; an absolute value of 0.3 is classified as medium and of 0.5 is classified as large. Table of Result Summary below summarizes the result of this study, and displays that variables of Post, Share, and View have a strong relationship with the number of vote variable, while the variable Like declares a medium and the variable Comment demonstrates a low correlation with the variable of vote in this study.

Table of Result Summary Candidate Reg. No.

Votes

760 2736 377 1396 608 1406 19 1259 324 1287 375 1255 266 1149 575 1223 631 1441 Correlation Between Vote and Other Data Sets

Posts

Likes

Comments

Shares

Videos

Views

66 1 13 21 2 13 1 24 4

17910 714 4399 15909 64 22085 389 15032 635

1123 72 248 1102 6 3341 85 1404 149

727 4 76 181 1 289 1 530 10

33 0 1 1 1 0 0 8 0

65816 0 1879 40,000 115 0 0 48000 0

0.87

0.32

0.03

0.67

0.94

0.62

Correlation value for variables of post and vote is an absolute 0.87, this value for share and vote is 0.67, and for view and vote is 0.62 while for like and vote is 0.31 and for comment and vote is 0.03.

10. CONCLUSIONS Posting on Facebook means that someone shares his or her idea, information, knowledge, values, beliefs or political messages to the community where they belong, while Like means approval of the post, Comments means the expression of reaction toward the post, Share means that ‘besides approval I also support the post.’ Taking these terminologies in our mind, the conclusion can be drawn.

The rate for literacy in Afghanistan is low (45% in 2018). Thus, video messaging is the most effective way to interact with people, as the finding of this study also shows that there is a strong correlation between video posting and getting vote, and thus views and vote variables. www.tjprc.org

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Politicians should focus on messages that can motivate people to share, support the message, the post; as share and vote have strong relationship (0.67). And, more posts may hit more like and more share too. Besides, the Post variable has very strong correlation with Vote variable in this study. The correlation between Like variable and Vote variable is classified as medium which means that there is still a relationship. The relevant post to the targeted community may hit more likes while irrelevant messages might be ignored.

Finally, besides other factors, control variables, affecting the process of election in Afghanistan in terms of qualifying for the membership of parliament by getting vote, Facebook Campaigning is an effective way of campaigning; it is fast, cheaper, ubiquitous, diverse, widespread etc.

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