February 2010 Volume 2, Edition 1
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In this edition: • Extract from the PD Global Report - by Philip Dooley
CONTACT US FOR A FREE EVALUATION OF YOUR SHARE PORTFOLIO OR TRADING HISTORY Matt.kirk@stonebridgegroup.com.au Jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au Philip.dooley@stonebridgegroup.com.au William.chien@stonebridgegroup.com.au
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• The Doctor Will See You Now… - Where finance and psychology meet • I WANNA BE A TRADER! - Adapted from ‘Bullseye – Top Trader Thinking’ • Technical Indicator of the Month: Ichimoku Kinko Hyo - by Jason Achjian • Recommendation Program update - Commodities Basket Recommendations - William Chien's CFDs - Top Trader - Seasonal Spread Trading
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Extract from the PD Global Report by Philip Dooley
09-Feb-10
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. December 2nd : “I am expecting the rally to continue and for the Dow to be on a fresh high by January 28th . Recent low at 10231 should not be revisited. In the very short term it should continue up largely uninterrupted to December 12th . ” December 31st: “As with the All Ords my view here remains the same. Ideally, the retracement underway in the last couple of sessions should not extend beyond the 6th, that is in the context of getting this thing higher by the 28th.” Recap and Forecast: As forecast the Dow continued its rally through December and made a fresh high on January 19th not quite being able to hold on to the 28th. There is a chart below created in November with my forecasts from March to November 2009 noted on it. Late March and/or early June will prove significant for the Dow in the early part of the year. Applying those periods to a continuation of the broader rally I expect it to be above the January high of 10729 by late March and on a further high by early June. To get up for late March it needs to find support now and hold it past mid February and be heading up by around the 19th. If it cannot do that then that will be a strong indication that it will fall to late March rather than rally in which event late March should be watched closely for the formation of a low prior to a rally to early June.
GOLD December 11th : “Whilst that earlier forecast has played out my view is that there will be new rally which will see gold above 1227 by mid February and on a fresh high by early May. Therefore I recommend buying spot gold at these current levels, last traded 1138. These times will be relevant for a falling market if I am wrong about the rally and I will consider them in that context later if need be.� December 31st : “Gold has been lower since that forecast on the 11th however my view has not changed.: Recap and Forecast: The rally to mid February has not occurred, the market instead returning to and breaking support around the 1074 area last visited in December. That is, the time to mid February has instead played out on the downside. However an important low may now be forming in gold before a strong rally gets underway to early May that will take it above the December high of 1227. For the rally to get going support should be in place by mid February and the price be heading up by the 18th. If it cannot do that then it is heading down to May. Last traded 1070. See the chart below detailing my forecast for gold during 2009.
The Doctor Will See You Now… Where finance and psychology meet Behavioural finance is a relatively new field of expertise which is starting to impact on the broader financial industry. Don’t be put off by visions of tweed-clad Oxford dons discussing Pavlov’s dog and what it means for the stock market, there are a number of useful messages and findings for which behavioural finance can claim the credit. Behavioural finance (and its older established cousin, behavioural economics), attempts to understand why investors and other individuals make decisions and the impact that these decisions can have on markets, prices and investment returns. It may come as some surprise, but as clever as we think we are, people are governed by a number of basic impulses. Those impulses influence our decisions and our reactions to the consequences of those decisions. A predisposition toward emotions of either hope or fear has a significant effect on the decision investors make. Emotional decisions can be irrational. For example, it has been proven that investors feel a loss twice as much (in a psychological sense) as a gain¹. As far as the psychologists are concerned such a response is irrational – isn’t a capital gain of $100 the same as a capital loss of $100? Not if you are like 99 per cent of society. Wanting to avoid a loss more than making an equivalent gain is known as loss aversion. Loss aversion may sound obvious, but it is quite significant. Decisions like these, made by hundreds of people, introduce inefficiencies into the stock market. Astute investors may be able to use this to their advantage. Loss aversion also leads investors into ‘get-evenitis’, where investors who hang on to shares that have fallen in value, in the sometimes vain hope that one day the share price will get back to the price at which they first bought it, allowing them to sell without incurring a loss. We are not advocating that every share which falls in price should be sold off immediately, just that we need to be aware of falling into the trap of ‘get-evenitis’. It is often said, very truthfully, that the hardest decision is not what shares to buy, but what to sell. Another favourite of the behavioural finance crowd is gambler’s fallacy, a neat name for the erroneous belief that the odds of a fixed odds event occurring increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences. For example, if we toss a coin 30 times and it lands on heads each time, you would be forgiven for thinking that there was a very high chance of it finally landing on tails on the next toss. Of course the odds are still no more than 50 per cent that it will be tails on the next toss. Gambler’s fallacy too has a role in the stock market, as people see (or think they see) patterns in price movements based on previous movements, and attempt to try and take advantage of the next perceived movement. Again this introduces inefficiencies into the market, which allows other investors to earn an excess return for taking an opposite position. We’ve included this article to highlight CIPL’s role in helping to manage through difficult economic times, and to take advantage of better conditions. The media would have had clients sell everything last year. With markets now recovering it would have been the worst choice of all. ¹ Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1991). Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference Dependent Model. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, 1039-1061. Article provided by Capricorn Investment Partners Limited, Australia.
I WANNA BE A TRADER! Adapted from ‘Bullseye – Top Trader Thinking’ by Matt Kirk & Sari Mustonen-Kirk “He who has a “why” to live can bear with almost any “how.” Friedrich Nietzsche - Philosopher Like a siren song to sailors, each year the world’s financial markets lure thousands of new hopefuls to try their hand at making it big. We dream the dream and the advertisers spur us along. If a taxi driver can rise to become one of the best traders in the world then maybe so can I, we reason. Sadly statistics paint a different picture with more than 80% dropping out within the first 3 years and many leaving with scant more than whence they entered.
Larry Williams Have you ever wondered how the ‘Super-Anyone’s’ achieve greatness and enjoy such success in their chosen fields? Is it because they’re different, gifted, harder working or lucky? Maybe they have inside information, friends in high places or quite simply they’re ‘a natural’ at something? We believe ‘Super-people’ ensure all steps are taken and not just the ‘easy’ or quick ones – rather, a focus on all elements of greatness related to what they set out to master. So why do budding traders think they’ll be profitable by just focussing on charts, fundamentals, money management or ‘tips’? Traders are humans, therefore, as humans there’s a whole host of steps required to make the brain, body and trading account all fire up at once thereby increasing the overall odds of success (read, PROFITS!) in something as highly specialised as Futures, Shares or Foreign Exchange speculation. The choice to enter the trading and investment arena is one that will tease many of us at some point in life or another. With the introduction of Compulsory Choice, ever increasing numbers of us will wonder what our money is actually doing and whether it will be sufficient to keep us in old age. A further group will go beyond this thought to wonder whether they would be better off managing their retirement funds themselves. So we begin this chapter with a discussion of motivation. Aside from the obvious reasons, why become a trader? Why take that plunge and accept responsibility for your own future. Why take on all that extra work? What is the purpose for it all?
Tom Scollon
We’re sure most of us can spout out a few quick answers to those questions but we wonder how many of us have really thought those things through? In our seminars we start by asking traders three questions – 1. 2. 3.
Who knows WHY they trade? Now keep your hands up if you know your PURPOSE for trading? and; Who here is making the money they want to make from their trading?
The first question regarding WHY, generally sees around 30% of the audience raise their hands. When we add in PURPOSE, over half the hands in the air go down meaning around 15% of people know their WHY and know their PURPOSE for trading. Not surprisingly, the final question tends to get just 1 or 2% of hands raised. In any pursuit in life you must know WHY you’ve chosen that path and you must know the PURPOSE for your WHY. AS humans, we need to clearly see ‘the light at the end of the tunnel’ so to speak, whether the situation is good or bad. Clearly, the ‘light’ we need to see as traders is a light of, first and foremost, MONEY and PROFITS. But how do you know what’s at the end of your ‘tunnel’ if you haven’t thought about it and haven’t written it down in an articulated and firm fashion? Furthermore, if you know your WHY but haven’t thought about and written down your PURPOSE how do you know what it all means to you? We need to have a ‘prize’ for our efforts, for our pouring over charts, for getting beaten up initially before we learn how to trade in a way that suits us best as well as learn how to roll with the inevitable and regular punches. So why do you want to be a trader? There are many, many answers to this question and each of us must know what our own answer is before embarking on or continuing trading. Reasons for trading are both conscious and subconscious. They can be financial, emotional, psychological, egotistical, situational or a combination of all these. Let’s turn now to perhaps the three most cited reasons for taking up trading or investing.
Daryl Guppy
1. TRADING FOR MONEY “Make money pure and simple.” Larry Williams No one goes into this field with the desire to lose money. The amount of time, capital and brain space required to trade is significant, so making money must be at the top of the list for wanting to trade. There’s nothing wrong with having the desire for more money – it affords us the opportunity to lead a potentially more balanced, fulfilled and happy lifestyle.
Guy Bower
Money can allow greater freedom, more time with family and friends as well as a general peace of mind due to ‘feeling’ we are successful and ‘good’ at something, which is an innate human need. It also allows us more ‘me’ time, which in this day and age has sadly become a pure luxury for many. We need time for ourselves to sit on a hill and ‘navel-gaze!’ Another positive side of making money is that for many it fulfils their ‘purpose’ – it can allow you to assist others in their goals and dreams, so perhaps one of your ‘Whys’ could be of an altruistic or philanthropic nature. Once again, it’s up to you what your ‘WHY’ is – just make sure you have a REASON for making money through trading! 2. TRADING FOR FREEDOM “I don’t like having to be at work on time. I hate the politics of work. I hate people in charge who don’t know more than you and I hate commuting. It’s one of the greatest privileges to work from home and have no boss.” Cat Davey Many people become sick of working for a boss or being in a ‘dumb’ job they feel is beneath them. Having your own trading business can allow you the freedom and flexibility you desire. It’s also a business that doesn’t require staff, leased office space, business cards, travelling to and from work or in the case of position trading, no set hours. Having said that, you must ‘see’ yourself as and ‘act’ like the Chief Dealer of your own Private Trading Fund. A wellknown business consultant and seminar speaker in the US, Brian Tracy, asks his audience these questions – “Who in the audience works for themselves?” 15% of people put up their hands,
Catherine Davey
“Who here works in banking?” 5% of hands go up, “Insurance?” A couple of people raise their hands, “Advertising?” 2 men and two women in loud suits jump up and start their pitch, “Anyone a lawyer?” A hush in the room as no one admits to that do they? He then goes on to make the brilliant point that EVERYONE works for themselves and that EVERYONE is the Managing Director of his or her own life. As a comical summary he tells everyone that from now on, when asked what they do, to answer in this way, “I’m the Managing Director of my own Personal Services Company. We’re involved in insurance, banking, advertising, real estate, retail, home services and law. Some of our sideline businesses include fashion, transport and travel. Thankyou for asking and here’s my card.”
Sari Mustonen-Kirk
Now we’re not asking you do be that cheesy in reality and nor is Brian Tracy – what he’s saying is; THINK and ACT like the Managing Director of your own company. So in the example of trading, you are the Chief Dealer of your own Trading Fund. You have a mandate and rules to implicitly stick to, you have a certain amount of capital required to operate your Fund, you don’t guess, punt or gamble, you don’t blow your Fund up or you’ll be sacked by the Fund Manager – YOU! You have an accounting area, charting analysis department, banking, research and development section – changes the slant doesn’t it. Would you hire you to trade your money? Be sure to impress the boss (i.e. YOU) with professionalism and dedication so at the end of each quarter you can hold your own little, one person, private party and maybe even give yourself a little bonus for exemplary work. KNOWING WHY? Imagine you’re in training to be an Olympic swimmer. Your WHY has to be mind-bogglingly clear and strong in order to force you to get out of bed every day of the year and get to the pool before the sun comes up? Imagine how much discipline is required to do that when it’s winter and a warm bed and a few more ‘z’s’ are a lot more appealing than being pushed on by your coach in a 50 metre body of chlorinated water – day after day, month after month, year after year! There are no overnight successes – well, none that last and are consistently on top of their endeavour for long. A quote from Top US Golfer, Gary Player, comes to mind, “The more I practise, the luckier I get.” Your Why’s as a budding Olympic swimmer could include – ‘I swim because I enjoy the feeling of my body becoming stronger. I enjoy being fit and healthy.’ ‘I train as a swimmer because I feel relaxed, natural and at harmony with water. I was a fish in a past life!’ ‘I swim long distances with ease and focus because I’m the sort of person who is determined, persistent and a ‘stayer’ in all areas of my life.’ See how the Why’s are along the lines of ‘feelings’ and ‘attitudes’ – ‘feeling stronger’, ‘being fit and healthy’, ‘relaxed’, ‘at harmony’, ‘a determined, stayer’. Let’s move on to the other half of the WHY/PURPOSE equation. Your PURPOSE is different to your WHY. Your PURPOSE is more of a tangible nature. Your PURPOSE for becoming a Top Olympic swimmer may include – ‘The reason I train to be an Olympic swimmer is so that I can someday have that big, gold medal hanging around my neck.’ ‘I want to be the best in swimming as I know I can make a huge amount of money which will set me up for life so I can be free to live my life in the way I want to.’ ‘My reason for swimming is simple – I want to travel the world competing in and seeing different countries.’ Thus, your PURPOSE for swimming is to, ‘have a Gold medal’, ‘to make money and to have freedom’, ‘to travel the world’. Now then, you are in training to be a Top Trader. Your Why’s could include – ‘I trade because I want to make more money in trading than I feel I can make in any other area.’ ‘I trade because I don’t like being at the beck and call of a boss or clients or customers.’ ‘I find trading to be an incredible personal challenge. I enjoy feeling the sense of achievement I get when I trade well.’
So, your Why’s are – ‘you feel you can make more in trading than something else’, ‘you don’t want people over your shoulder’, ‘it makes you proud of yourself.’ In the classic book on purpose, ‘Mans Search for Meaning’, Viktor Frankl recounts his experience as a prisoner in the Second World War. A psychiatrist when captured, he decided to document his time as a POW. All prisoners were subjected to the same atrocities and he soon found that the main difference between those who perished and those who survived the camps was, you guessed it, PURPOSE. Salvation and life was the reward for those who made the choice to build on their hopes and dreams for when they were released. These same prisoners talked about being reunited with loved ones, focussed on what they would do when they no longer were at the hands of the guards and actually saw themselves as free men and women in the future. Their purpose was to succeed in living – perhaps success (living) was the best revenge. Alternatively, those who lost all hope, who allowed their dreams and visions of family to be extinguished simply lay down and died. They had nothing to live for. Ironically, Frankls own purpose was to keep his notes and diaries from being discovered and confiscated by the guards so he could be free to let the world know of his very real-life research findings into this aspect of the human psyche. Many Top Traders have another pursuit outside trading that they spend some of their profits on. One very well known US trader owns a baseball team and another built his own golf course so he and his friends can play at their leisure. One investor/educator we know in Sydney uses some of his profits to help less fortunate children in other countries. And so it is in trading, when you know the WHY and what your PURPOSE is the goal becomes just that much closer to becoming a reality!
HAVEN’T GOT A COPY OF ‘BULLSEYE – TOP TRADER THINKING’ YET…? GRAB IT NOW & GET YOUR TRADERS BRAIN ON TRACK THROUGHOUT 2010!
Click the link below for info about ‘Bullseye – Top Trader Thinking’ and to buy your copy.
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Technical Indicator of the Month By: Jason Achjian
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo What Ichimoku is very similar to moving average studies. And like moving averages, buy and sell signals are given with the crossover technique. The Ichimoku chart consists of five lines. The calculation for four of these lines involves taking only the midpoints of previous highs and lows, similar to moving average studies. Yet even with this simplicity, the completed chart is able to present a clear perspective of the price action. How The five lines, as shown in Figure 1, are calculated as follows: 1) Tenkan-Sen = Conversion Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past 9 periods 2) Kijun-Sen = Base Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past 26 periods 3) Chikou Span = Lagging Span = Today's closing price plotted 26 periods behind 4) Senkou Span A = Leading Span A = (Tenkan-Sen + Kijun-Sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead 5) Senkou Span B = Leading Span B = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past 52 periods, plotted 26 periods ahead Kumo = Cloud = Area between Senkou Span A and B Ichimoku uses three key time periods for its input parameters: 9, 26, and 52. When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long. These parameters, thus, represent one and a half week, one month, and two months, respectively. Now that the trading week is 5 days, one may want to modify the parameters to 7, 22, and 44. When • A bullish signal is issued when the Tenkan-Sen (red line) crosses the Kijun-Sen (blue line) from below. Conversely, a bearish signal is issued when the Tenkan-Sen crosses the Kijun-Sen from above. • Moreover, there are, in fact, different levels of strengths for the buy and sell signals of an Ichimoku chart. First, if there was a bullish crossover signal and the price, at that time, was trading above the Kumo (or cloud), this would be considered a very strong buy signal. In contrast, if there was a bearish crossover signal and the price, at that time, was trading below the Kumo, this would be considered a very strong sell signal. Secondly, a normal buy or sell signal would be issued if the price was trading within the Kumo when the crossover took place. Thirdly, a weak buy signal would be issued if there was a bullish crossover that occurred while the price was trading below the Kumo. On the other hand, a weak signal would be issued if there was a bearish crossover that occurred when the price was trading above the Kumo. • Another striking feature of the Ichimoku charting technique is the identification of support and resistance levels. These levels can be predicted by the presence of the Kumo. The Kumo can also be used to help identify the prevailing trend of the market. If the price is above the Kumo, the prevailing trend is said to be up. And if the price is below the Kumo, the prevailing trend is said to be down. • A final feature of Ichimoku is the Chikou Span. This line can also be used to determine the strength of the buy or sell signal. If the Chikou Span was below the closing price and a sell signal was issued, then the strength is with the sellers, otherwise it is a weak signal. Conversely, if there was a buy signal and the Chikou Span was above the price, then there is strength to the upside, otherwise it can be considered a weak buy signal. This feature can also be incorporated into the other signals. • With Ichimoku charts, it is the Kumo that quantifies support and resistance levels and the Kumo that can be used to project these levels into the future. It's therefore important to note that (unlike its traditional counterparts) the support/resistance level given by the Kumo appears as a layer of varying thickness, with the thickness being related to prior market volatility.
How to add this to your Charts in eBridge Trader Whilst in your workspace viewing a chart, click this >>> Oscillators >>> IKH: Ichimoku Kinko Hyo...:
symbol at the top of the chart, then
The default fields that appear can be adjusted at this point for this indicator; you can also adjust them later if you wish. You can also adjust colour and the weight of the line: Click OK once you’re satisfied with the settings. You will now see the indicator added over the top of the chart. You can later adjust settings by clicking the ‘IKH’ at the top left of new pane and then clicking on ‘Properties’, you can also delete the indicator from this menu. If there is any feature of eBridge Trader that you’d like covered in next months newsletter please email your request to: jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au
To open an eBridge Trader account or get further information on adding technical indicators to charts using eBridge Trader please contact Jason Achjian by Email: Jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au or Phone: 1300-73-66-11.
service@toptraderthinking.com
Matt Kirk
Jason Achjian
http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42
William Chien: CFD Recommendation Service
William Chien
Trading Objectives
Trader Profile
This program focuses on trading CFDs on ASX shares with a short term view (less than 8 weeks in most cases). William Chien uses technical analysis to zoom in on potentially profitable opportunities and then forwards email recommendations to his distribution list. William is very conservative and will generally do no more than 4 trades in any given month. When conditions are not right William will not trade at all.
Traders with a relatively high risk tolerance and who also want a degree of involvement in their trading decisions would be best suited to this approach. No positions will be entered or exited without prior confirmation from each individual client. If you disagree with Williams view on any particular trade you are under no obligation to enter or exit the position.
Recommendation Perfomance
*Balance is in AUD based on minimum quantities and is net of all commissions. Results are unaudited. Updated COB 31-12-09
Philip Dooley
Conditions If you receive but do not take advantage of 3 consecutive trades you will be removed from the email list. A minimum starting balance of $20,000 is required for this service.
To register your interest, open an account or request further information about this service please contact us: 1300-73-66-11 William Chien:
william.chien@stonebridgegroup.com.au
Please refer to toptraderthinking recommendation discalimer: http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/marketnews.asp?id=288&action=viewarticle
Top-Trader - Seasonal Spreads in Futures & Options In Brief Top-Trader is a recommendation program designed to take advantage of historically high probability seasonal opportunities in a wide range of markets using futures and options spreads. On average, one trade per week is generated and the length of time in each trade is approx. 23 weeks. Stop losses are based on closing prices i.e. exits are made the following day if the market closes outside of the stop level.
Trader Profile This program suits those who want to take advantage of opportunities in stock indices, interest rates, currencies and commodities markets. Traders with a relatively high risk tolerance and who also want a degree of involvement in their trading decisions are best suited to this approach. No positions will be entered or exited without prior confirmation from each individual client.
Recommendation Perfomance
*Last updated COB 31-12-09. Balance is net of commissions Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Commissions / Conditions The brokerage rate charged is US $15.00 per side of each trade +GST. If you receive and do not take advantage of 3 consecutive trades you will no longer receive fully detailed email recommendations. Minimum starting balance of $15,000 is required.
To register your interest, open an account or request further information about this service please contact us: 1300-73-66-11 Jason Achjian:
jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au
Please refer to toptraderthinking recommendation discalimer: http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/marketnews.asp?id=288&action=viewarticle
RECOMMENDATION PROGRAMS – UPDATE COMMODITY BASKET RECOMMENDATIONS (CBR) OCTOBER 2007 TO NOVEMBER 2009 UP 58.84% NET OF COMMISSIONS MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A10,000
WILLIAM CHIENS CFD RECOMMENDATIONS JUNE 2006 TO NOVEMBER 2009 UP 142.72% NET OF COMMISSIONS MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A20,000
TOP-TRADER - SEASONAL SPREAD TRADING JUNE 2008 TO NOVEMBER 2009 UP 29.32% NET OF COMMISSIONS MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A15,000
Please contact the Futures dealing desk for further information on recommendation programs Phone: 1300 73 66 11 Email: jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au
NOTE: RESULTS ARE UNAUDITED – PLEASE CALL OR EMAIL TO REQUEST SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING PARTICIPATING IN ANY OF OUR RECOMMENDATION PROGRAMS
WANT TO RECEIVE OUR RECOMMENDATIONS? To receive recommendations on an ongoing basis you must be a client of StoneBridge Group Gold Coast Derivatives desk. To open an account email matt.kirk@stonebridgegroup.com.au or contact the dealing desk on 1300 73 66 11. Please see our Recommendations & Information disclaimer on www.toptraderthinking.com Click on 'Market News' to read thoroughly prior to entering into any of our trades. There is always a risk of loss in derivatives trading. Past performance is no indication of future results. Do not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Seek independent financial consultation before entering any trade recommendation program. All information and recommendations are general advice only and we have not taken your personal financial position into consideration
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