March 2010 Volume 2, Edition 2
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In this edition: • Extract from the PD Global Report - by Philip Dooley
CONTACT US FOR A FREE EVALUATION OF YOUR SHARE PORTFOLIO OR TRADING HISTORY Matt.kirk@stonebridgegroup.com.au Jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au Philip.dooley@stonebridgegroup.com.au William.chien@stonebridgegroup.com.au
Or call us DIRECTLY (in Aust.) 1300 73 66 11 Outside Australia +617 5504 2222
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• How to Avoid Tripping Yourself Up... - by Nazy Massoud • An Intro to some great US commodities you can trade… - From www.TopTraderThinking.com • Technical Indicator of the Month: Accumulation Distribution - by Jason Achjian • Recommendation Program update - Commodities Basket Recommendations - William Chien's CFDs - Top Trader - Seasonal Spread Trading
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Extract from the PD Global Report #46 by Philip Dooley
It is time to have a look at the progress of the earlier forecasts for the stock indices. DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. February 9th: “Late March and/or early June will prove significant for the Dow in the early part of the year. Applying those periods to a continuation of the broader rally I expect it to be above the January high of 10729 by late March and on a further high by early June.” Recap: as forecast the Dow has rallied off its lows in February and is pushing up higher into late March. The chart below has the February forecast marked on it together with the forecast from December which I recapped in Report No.39 in early February. The second chart recaps my forecasts from March 09 to February 2010 and is an excellent example of the application of the dates produced by algorithm being applied to the continuation of a trend. However in March 09 the algorithm was first used to produce a likely time period when a reversal would get underway i.e “ the first half of March” .
15-Mar-10
Extract from the PD Global Report #45 by Philip Dooley
11-Mar-10
NATURAL GAS. Recap and forecast: My last forecast on gas was on December 15th and you can read below that I was looking for the rally at that stage to continue and be above the October high by January 6th on the way higher into the new year. This is not want occurred, the rally could not get past Jan 6th. Looking ahead now I have March 22nd and late April around the 26th and ideally the run down now underway should be lower by late April provided it can get beyond support around march 22nd. December 15th: “The algorithm now calls for a fresh low by January 6th however in the circumstances I am taking a contrarian view that January will see it above the October high of 6.266. If it does then the rally will go on with it further in to 2010 . I recommend buying the March E-mini Natural Gas futures at market, they trade on Globex, and using a break of say the previous days low as a stop level. So you may have to be prepared for more than one attempt . This thing is not to be given any room at all, this is a speculative trade and the odds are not in favour as the trend is still down.�
To receive Philip Dooley's full report or get on his email distribution list; please contact Philip directly on either 1300 73 66 11 or by email to:
Philip.Dooley@StoneBridgeGroup.com.au
How to Avoid Tripping Yourself Up... NAZY MASSOUD - WALL ST. INSIDER Have you been in situations where you had several winning trades which were wiped out by one losing trade? Have these become a pattern? Like some of my clients, you may be saying, “I have spent hours creating my plan.” Then you start the day with every intention of following it. After a few losing trades, you lose your control and with that, your plans go out the window. You try to make up for your losses by chasing after deals and increasing the size of your trades. So you get in at the wrong entry point and the size does not warrant the risk. The other scenario I have heard is that you have started the day by following your plan. You are making money. Then you feel that you are on a roll and you do not have to follow any plans. You know what to do and you go for a trade which was not on your plan, with bigger sizes than other ones. Then it happens. You wipe out all of your winnings. You wonder what happened. “Where did I go wrong?” You might start blaming your system. Therefore, you go from one system to another. With each system producing similar results, you get more and more frustrated and angry. Not only are you losing money on your trade, you are losing money and time on all the new systems that you are buying…. Next, you might say to yourself,” I do not know enough.” Therefore, you are buying one book after another. You attend one seminar after another to get more familiar with trading. Yet you are not seeing that much of a difference in your results. You are wondering what has happened. “Why am I not getting the results that I want?” You might even think, “It is the type of security that I am trading. This is not the market for me.” So, you change markets. Yet you go through similar frustrations, headaches and results…. No matter what you do, your results are still not what you expect them to be. So, you might throw your hands up and not know what to do. Any of these scenarios sound familiar? If so, you are not the only one. Lots of traders go through these. The most successful traders know the secret. They know what it takes to be successful. They know that their secret to success lies in their mindset. It is the mental edge that they develop which separates them from the rest of the traders. So what are 7 steps that you can take when your trades go against you?
Larry Williams
1. When the trade goes against you, get out of the trade — Do not move your stops. 2. Clear your mind before doing another trade. Then you are not reacting to your loss. You can concentrate and find the right trade for you. 3. Look at each trade individually. By doing this, you are not influenced by the result of previous trades and are not taking unwarranted risk. Hence, when you are up, you are not risking all of your wins. Similarly, when you are down, you are not increasing the size of your trade to make up for what you have lost. 4. Have a Trading budget and stick to it. Only invest the amount that you can lose. 5. Think about trading as a game similar to Monopoly. As you know, each game has its rules and as you become more experienced in it and become more comfortable with the rules, it becomes more fun…. 6. Stick to your plan — One of the best ways that I have heard someone defining trading is: “Trading is simple, but not easy. And the greatest difficulty is to accept the simple rules and obey them with discipline.” 7. Remember, it is a process — You have to stick to your plan for a while, before jumping from one thing to another. As Michael Jordan says: "I have missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I have lost almost 300 games. On 26 occasions, I have been entrusted to take the game-winning shot...and I missed. I have failed over and over and over again in my life. And that's precisely why I succeed." By following these simple steps, your career as a trader will become more effective, more rewarding and ultimately more successful. Remember: Perseverance is key! Like Albert Einstein said: "It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." To get your Free Special Report: The 3 Biggest Psychological Triggers That Can Make Or Break A Trader, just go to www.mentaledgetrading.com, fill in your name, primary email address below, and click "Send 3 Biggest Psychological Triggers!"
Tom Scollon
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nazy Massoud, a Wall Street Insider, shows traders, investors, and hedge fund managers how to master the mental edge necessary to execute trades with discipline, consistency and more profitability. For more tips and a FREE report about "The 3 Biggest Psychological Triggers That Can Make Or Break A Trader" go to www.MentalEdgeTrading.com
Daryl Guppy
An Intro to some great US commodities you can trade… from www.TopTraderThinking.com If you’re getting chopped up trading shares and you’re looking for some other markets to trade then take a look at some of the US Commodity Futures markets. In this edition of ‘YMM’ we’ll take a peek at the Meats. A wonderful and FREE site for you is www.futuresource.com – you can look at charts from 1 minute to monthly and run through a whole host of info and news on each commodity. For more information contact your advisor and if you need to open an account to trade futures markets then we’ll organise that for you.
Guy Bower
LIVE CATTLE and FEEDER CATTLE - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME ) The breeding of cattle is concentrated in the major grazing and pasture areas extending east from the Rockies to the western edge of the Corn Belt and north from Texas to Canada. Feeder cattle (calves and yearlings) are shipped from this area to feedlot operators located mostly in areas of surplus feed grain production sic as the Corn Belt and parts of Texas. The slaughterhouse is the ultimate destination of cattle, whether grass-fed or grain-fed. From this point distribution in the form of beef takes place to the major consuming centres. More calves are born in the spring than any other time; so most calves and yearlings are placed on feed in autumn. Since cattle grazing are seasonal, grass-fed cattle marketing tends to be largest in late autumn or early winter. Overall, federally inspected slaughter statistics indicate a low in February, followed by a rather steady rise to an October peak and a rapid decline to the next February. Cattle prices are seasonally highest at the end of winter and lowest in late autumn. Drought during the growing season, range and pasture conditions and weather at marketing time all can affect the amount of cattle marketed and thus the price of cattle. Prices are also affected by changes in the level of consumer disposable income, which has an influence on demand for beef. The average weight of cattle on feed and fed cattle marketed are also important. Live Cattle Contract Specifications:
Size – 40,000 pounds Value of 1 cent move = $US400 Minimum move (tick) 0.025c = $US10.00
Catherine Davey
Feeder Cattle Contract Specifications:
Sari Mustonen-Kirk
Size – 50,000 pounds Value of 1 cent move = $US500 Minimum move (tick) 0.025c = $US12.50
An Intro to some great US commodities you can trade‌ from www.TopTraderThinking.com LEAN HOGS and PORK BELLIES - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Commercial hog production is concentrated in the Corn Belt. Iowa is the most important hog-producing state, followed by Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana and North Carolina. Slaughter of mature hogs tends to be lowest in mid-summer, and prices are usually highest at that time. Slaughter generally peaks in the November to December period and prices tend to be seasonally low at that time. Pork bellies are cured bacon, a by-product of hog slaughter, accounting for about 11 percent of live weight and a somewhat larger percentage of hog cut-out value. Demand for bacon is generally heaviest in the summer. There is a tendency for April hog futures prices to advance from the mid-November/ mid- December period into late winter or early spring. A basic consideration in the prices of both hogs and pork bellies is the supply of hogs, as reflected in pig crop reports and later borne out by statistics on hog slaughter and slaughter weights. Other important factors are the supply and price of major competing meats (beef), the availability and price of feed and protein supplements (principally corn and soybean meal) and pork bellies.
Lean Hogs Contract Specifications:
Pork Bellies Contract Specifications:
Size – 40,000 pounds Value of 1 cent move = $US400 Minimum move (tick) 0.025c = $US10.00
Size – 40,000 pounds Value of 1 cent move = $US400 Minimum move (tick) 0.025c = $US10.00
Technical Indicator of the Month By: Jason Achjian
Accumulation Distribution What A momentum indicator that attempts to gauge supply and demand by determining whether investors are generally "accumulating" (buying) or "distributing" (selling) a certain security by identifying divergences between security price and volume flow.
How Accumulation/Distribution index is a cumulative total volume technical analysis indicator created by Marc Chaikin, which adds or subtracts each day's volume in proportion to where the close is between the day's high and low. First a close location value is formed, (close – low) – (high – close) CLV = High - low This ranges from -1 when the close is the low of the day, to +1 when it's the high. For instance if the close is 3/4 the way up the range then CLV is +0.5. The accumulation/distribution index adds up volume multiplied by the CLV factor, ie. Acc/dist = acc/dist prev + volume x CLV The starting point for the acc/dist total, ie. the zero point, is arbitrary, only the shape of the resulting indicator is used, not the actual level of the total.
When • Bullish Signals A bullish signal is given when the Accumulation/Distribution Line forms a positive divergence. Be wary of weak positive divergences that fail to make higher reaction highs or those that are relatively young. The main issue is to identify the general trend of the Accumulation/Distribution Line. A two-week positive divergence may be a bit suspect. However, a multi-month positive divergence deserves serious attention. • Bearish Signals The same principles that apply to positive divergences apply to negative divergences. The key issue is to identify the main trend in the Accumulation/Distribution Line and compare it to the underlying security. Young negative divergences, or those that are relatively flat, should be looked upon with a healthy dose of skepticism.
How to add this to your Charts in eBridge Trader Whilst in your workspace viewing a chart, click this >>> Volume >>> Accumulation Distribution:
symbol at the top of the chart, then
The default fields that appear can be adjusted at this point for this indicator; you can also adjust them later if you wish. You can also adjust colour and the weight of the line: Click OK once you’re satisfied with the settings. You will now see the indicator added in a pane below the chart. You can later adjust settings by clicking the ‘AD’ at the top left of new pane and then clicking on ‘Properties’, you can also delete the indicator from this menu. If there is any feature of eBridge Trader that you’d like covered in next months newsletter please email your request to: jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au
To open an eBridge Trader account or get further information on adding technical indicators to charts using eBridge Trader please contact Jason Achjian by Email: Jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au or Phone: 1300-73-66-11.
service@toptraderthinking.com http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42 http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/shop.asp?i d=42
William Chien: CFD Recommendation Service Trading Objectives
Trader Profile
This program focuses on trading CFDs on ASX shares with a short term view (less than 8 weeks in most cases). William Chien uses technical analysis to zoom in on potentially profitable opportunities and then forwards email recommendations to his distribution list. William is very conservative and will generally do no more than 4 trades in any given month. When conditions are not right William will not trade at all.
Traders with a relatively high risk tolerance and who also want a degree of involvement in their trading decisions would be best suited to this approach. No positions will be entered or exited without prior confirmation from each individual client. If you disagree with Williams view on any particular trade you are under no obligation to enter or exit the position.
Recommendation Perfomance
Matt Kirk
*Balance is in AUD based on minimum quantities and is net of all commissions. Results are unaudited. Updated COB 28-02-10
Conditions If you receive but do not take advantage of 3 consecutive trades you will be removed from the email list. A minimum starting balance of $20,000 is required for this service.
Jason Achjian To register your interest, open an account or request further information about this service please contact us: 1300-73-66-11 William Chien:
william.chien@stonebridgegroup.com.au
Please refer to toptraderthinking recommendation discalimer: http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/marketnews.asp?id=288&action=viewarticle
Top-Trader - Seasonal Spreads in Futures & Options In Brief Top-Trader is a recommendation program designed to take advantage of historically high probability seasonal opportunities in a wide range of markets using futures and options spreads. On average, one trade per week is generated and the length of time in each trade is approx. 23 weeks. Stop losses are based on closing prices i.e. exits are made the following day if the market closes outside of the stop level.
William Chien
Trader Profile This program suits those who want to take advantage of opportunities in stock indices, interest rates, currencies and commodities markets. Traders with a relatively high risk tolerance and who also want a degree of involvement in their trading decisions are best suited to this approach. No positions will be entered or exited without prior confirmation from each individual client.
Recommendation Perfomance
*Last updated COB 28-02-10. Balance is net of commissions Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Philip Dooley
Commissions / Conditions The brokerage rate charged is US $15.00 per side of each trade +GST. If you receive and do not take advantage of 3 consecutive trades you will no longer receive fully detailed email recommendations. Minimum starting balance of $15,000 is required.
To register your interest, open an account or request further information about this service please contact us: 1300-73-66-11 Jason Achjian:
jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au
Please refer to toptraderthinking recommendation discalimer: http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/marketnews.asp?id=288&action=viewarticle
RECOMMENDATION PROGRAMS – UPDATE COMMODITY BASKET RECOMMENDATIONS (CBR) OCTOBER 2007 TO FEBRUARY 2010 UP 56.71% NET OF COMMISSIONS MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A10,000
WILLIAM CHIENS CFD RECOMMENDATIONS JUNE 2006 TO FEBRUARY 2010 UP 138.76% NET OF COMMISSIONS MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A20,000
TOP-TRADER - SEASONAL SPREAD TRADING JUNE 2008 TO FEBRUARY 2010 UP 25.84% NET OF COMMISSIONS MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A15,000
Please contact the Futures dealing desk for further information on recommendation programs Phone: 1300 73 66 11 Email: jason.achjian@stonebridgegroup.com.au
NOTE: RESULTS ARE UNAUDITED – PLEASE CALL OR EMAIL TO REQUEST SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING PARTICIPATING IN ANY OF OUR RECOMMENDATION PROGRAMS
WANT TO RECEIVE OUR RECOMMENDATIONS? To receive recommendations on an ongoing basis you must be a client of StoneBridge Group Gold Coast Derivatives desk. To open an account email matt.kirk@stonebridgegroup.com.au or contact the dealing desk on 1300 73 66 11. Please see our Recommendations & Information disclaimer on www.toptraderthinking.com Click on 'Market News' to read thoroughly prior to entering into any of our trades. There is always a risk of loss in derivatives trading. Past performance is no indication of future results. Do not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Seek independent financial consultation before entering any trade recommendation program. All information and recommendations are general advice only and we have not taken your personal financial position into consideration
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