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Co-Publisher

Francesca Ash francesca@totallicensing.com

Co-Publisher

Jerry Wooldridge jerry@totallicensing.com

Editorial Director

Rebecca Ash becky@totallicensing.com

Office Manager

Helen Bowerman helen@totallicensing.com

Japan Agent

Roger Berman, ZenWorks rmb@zenworks.jp

With thanks to those who contributed to this issue

TOTAL LICENSING LTD

4 Wadhurst Business Park Faircrouch Lane, Wadhurst, East Sussex TN5 6PT UK Tel: +44 (0) 1892 782220 Fax: +44 (0) 1892 782226 www.totallicensing.com enquiries@totallicensing.com

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© 2022 Total Licensing Ltd All illustrations are reproduced by permission of their owners. No part of this magazine may be copied or quoted without permission from the Publishers first. Total Licensing Ltd does not warrant or assume any legal liability for the accuracy or legality of contents, images or advertisements submitted to the magazine. Opinions of the contributing writers are their own and do not reflect the opinion of Total Licensing Ltd. Well now that most of us are vaccinated and boosted, finally, after two very long years, the pandemic seems to be on the back foot.

We can all breathe a sigh of relief…. Or can we? Not really! The impact of the pandemic will be felt for years, if not decades to come.

Brand Licensing Europe, which takes place this September, is happening against a backdrop of ever-higher inflation, industrial unrest, a major squeeze on consumer spending and, if that wasn’t enough, supply chain issues affected in the UK and Europe by Brexit and the war in Ukraine.

Of course from a European perspective, Brexit actually has certain advantages. Previously UK licensees were able to sell into all EU countries. Now this is different – the UK has to specifically add an EU country to their agreement. This, overall, benefits local licensees as larger UK licensees will not directly compete with them.

In terms of supply chains, a combination of the Russia Ukraine conflict with renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China compounded an already difficult supply chain situation.

Existing restrictions imposed on Russia and the potential for further restrictions continue to impact fuel costs, contributing to the wider supply chain crisis. While freight markets have limited direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine, global logistics will have to contend with an increasing number of risk factors, including restrictions to airspace, uncertainty on the future path of consumer demand and ongoing bottlenecks related to China’s COVID-19 response.

In the EU, after a soft patch, the economic expansion is set to regain pace in the second half of this year and remain robust over the forecast horizon. Following a strong recovery by 5.3% in 2021, the EU economy is now forecast to grow by 4.0% in 2022, as in the euro area, and by 2.8% in 2023 (2.7% in the euro area).

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues to negatively affect the EU economy, setting it on a path of lower growth and higher inflation compared to earlier forecasts.It is projected that that the EU economy will grow by 2.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. Growth in the euro area is expected at 2.6% in 2022, moderating to 1.4% in 2023. Annual average inflation is projected to peak at historical highs in 2022, at 7.6% in the euro area and 8.3% in the EU, before easing in 2023 to 4.0% and 4.6%, respectively.

Across the Atlantic in the US, the forecast is similar. The Federal Reserve forecasts that 2022 GDP growth will come in at 1.3 percent yearover-year and that 2023 growth will slow to 0.2 percent year-over-year.

Even China is seeing economic growth slowing sharply this year. Experts predict GDP to expand 4.4% in 2022 and 5.2% in 2023 – a marked downturn from previous years.

All of this said, the licensing business is continuing to develop and expand. Consumers are still buying licensed products and whilst a large amount of entertainment has shifted from theatrical to streaming, this has allowed brands to emerge and thrive from different sources.

Brand Licensing Europe this September takes place at a time of huge change in the UK - coming only two weeks after the UK appointed a new Prime Minister and King Charles III was appointed following the sad death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Over 250 exhibitors from the UK, Europe and beyond will take part in the three day event which attracts retailers and buyers such as El Corte Ingles and Primark and all points in between.

Total Licensing will, as always, be at Brand Licensing Europe. If you get a moment, do visit us on our booth (F160) – we’d love to see you and hear your latest news! Looking forward to seeing you at ExCel!