NPD Insight
To monitor what’s happening in the ever-changing toy market, NPD collects point-of-sale information from all major toy retailers. This information, combined with our analysts’ industry perspectives, delivers a comprehensive view of what’s selling and where. We also field over 12m consumer surveys annually to help industry leaders understand why consumers shop where they shop and why they buy what they buy. For more information visit www.npd.com. Follow NPD on Twitter @npdgroup.
And that’s a wrap on 2021
As 2021 draws to a close, Moneeba looks back on how sales trends have developed and how the year might end up.
T
he toy industry has managed to We saw a shift in channels this year too, as successfully navigate another turbulent consumers moved from online purchasing to more year as we look to the close of 2021. As it in-store transactions as stores opened. As it stands, YTD October 2018 - 2021 stands, toy sales have generated £1.3b in the grocery channel is up +5%, after a really strong terms of value and 151m in terms of units, start to the year, growing double digits month by YTD Oct-21. Whilst the market is showing a slight month until Apr-21. As we saw consumers head back decline of -3%, it’s important to compare against 2019 into stores, based on our consumer panel, methods 15.0 performance (a non-covid year), which shows the of toy purchasing such reserve online/pick up in market up +6%. The shift in consumers buying lower11.3 store, paid online/pick up at a station increased +17% priced items has meant that more toys are being share. However, online purchasing still remains key bought, but the value generated has decreased this for the category. Based on our consumer panel data, 7.5 year. The under £6 price point, which really struggled the online share of the toys market is the biggest as a result of stores being closed last year, is now in we’ve ever seen, accounting for 60% of consumer toy growth adding +£9.7m to the market. The average 3.8 purchasing. Internet pure players remain the No.1 price has decreased by -4% so far this year to £8.98. channel in the market, but toy specialists and grocery have been growing. 0.0 The toy market
Collectibles share £% in total market
YTD Oct'18
YTD Oct'19
YTD Oct'20
Moneeba Baloch
Account Manager, UK Toys, Euro Toys
minifigures is the No.1 new collectible item in the market right now, generating £2.3m, followed by MGA’s L.O.L. Surprise! Dance Dance Dance Tots which made £2m. In such a competitive sector, L.O.L. Surprise! Present Surprise remains the top collectible, growing triple digits in terms of value to £2.6m and YTD Oct'21 selling 254k items.
came into 2021 on With just 46 days Source: The NPD Group | Retail Tracking Service | UK | YTD Oct-21, 20, 19 a high, with a +5% left till Christmas at trend. In the first four 1 The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential the time of writing, months of this year, what can we expect the market continued from Christmas this to grow. The biggest year? While we don’t growth was Feb-21, have a crystal ball, which showed the we are predicting monthly trend as modest growth for +16% as we were in a 15.0 2021, ending the lockdown this year year with a single versus no lockdown % digit positive trend. 7 1 11.3 + in 2020. In 2021, the Typically, December month of May showed accounts for a quarter the second steepest of toy sales, so there 7.5 decline compared to is a big chunk still to 2020 which mainly come. We anticipate came from Outdoor & that higher price 3.8 Sports declining by a point items will half and Arts & Crafts still be popular this by a third. These key 0.0 Christmas despite the categories excelled YTD Oct'18 YTD Oct'19 YTD Oct'20 YTD Oct'21 resurgence of smaller in 2020 during the price points in the lockdown months and Source: The NPD Group | Retail Tracking Service | UK | YTD Oct-21, 19 toy20, market right now. therefore have had strong values to match up to this This year also saw the return of collectibles which With price inflation and a strong message of shopping year. In the most recent figuresThe forNPD Oct-21, we have has generated £160m so far this year, with a growth 1 Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential early, we may see sales spike sooner than we think, seen the biggest decline so far this year of -16% vs last of +17%, accounting for 12% of the market. Over which could impact the month of Dec-21 resulting year. With England now fully open and all restrictions half of collectibles purchasing has come from the in slower growth that anticipated. We are also lifted, consumer’s share of spend has inevitably grocery channel, which has generated £85.8m in predicting another year of modest growth in 2022 as spread to other activities such as travelling, dining terms of value, growing by +21%. There were plenty the toy market continues to excel off the back of the out, socialising with others etc. of new launches this year too: Lego Looney Toons pandemic before flattening out in the next few years.
Collectibles share £% in total market YTD October 2018 - 2021
Toy World 22
