NPD Insight

And that’s a wrap on 2021

As 2021 draws to a close, Moneeba looks back on how sales trends have developed and how the year might end up.

The toy industry has managed to successfully navigate another turbulent year as we look to the close of 2021. As it stands, toy sales have generated £1.3b in terms of value and 151m in terms of units, YTD Oct-21. Whilst the market is showing a slight decline of -3%, it’s important to compare against 2019 performance (a non-covid year), which shows the market up +6%. The shift in consumers buying lower priced items has meant that more toys are being bought, but the value generated has decreased this year. The under £6 price point, which really struggled as a result of stores being closed last year, is now in growth adding +£9.7m to the market. The average price has decreased by -4% so far this year to £8.98.

The toy market came into 2021 on a high, with a +5% trend. In the first four months of this year, the market continued to grow. The biggest growth was Feb-21, which showed the monthly trend as +16% as we were in a lockdown this year versus no lockdown in 2020. In 2021, the month of May showed the second steepest decline compared to 2020 which mainly came from Outdoor & Sports declining by a half and Arts & Crafts by a third. These key categories excelled in 2020 during the lockdown months and therefore have had strong values to match up to this year. In the most recent figures for Oct-21, we have seen the biggest decline so far this year of -16% vs last year. With England now fully open and all restrictions lifted, consumer’s share of spend has inevitably spread to other activities such as travelling, dining out, socialising with others etc.

We saw a shift in channels this year too, as consumers moved from online purchasing to more in-store transactions as stores opened. As it stands, the grocery channel is up +5%, after a really strong start to the year, growing double digits month by month until Apr-21. As we saw consumers head back into stores, based on our consumer panel, methods of toy purchasing such reserve online/pick up in store, paid online/pick up at a station increased share. However, online purchasing still remains key for the category. Based on our consumer panel data, the online share of the toys market is the biggest we’ve ever seen, accounting for 60% of consumer toy purchasing. Internet pure players remain the No.1 channel in the market, but toy specialists and grocery have been growing.

This year also saw the return of collectibles which has generated £160m so far this year, with a growth of +17%, accounting for 12% of the market. Over half of collectibles purchasing has come from the grocery channel, which has generated £85.8m in terms of value, growing by +21%. There were plenty of new launches this year too: Lego Looney Toons minifigures is the No.1 new collectible item in the market right now, generating £2.3m, followed by MGA’s L.O.L. Surprise! Dance Dance Dance Tots which made £2m. In such a competitive sector, L.O.L. Surprise! Present Surprise remains the top collectible, growing triple digits in terms of value to £2.6m and selling 254k items.

With just 46 days left till Christmas at the time of writing, what can we expect from Christmas this year? While we don’t have a crystal ball, we are predicting modest growth for 2021, ending the year with a single digit positive trend. Typically, December accounts for a quarter of toy sales, so there is a big chunk still to come. We anticipate that higher price point items will still be popular this Christmas despite the resurgence of smaller price points in the toy market right now. With price inflation and a strong message of shopping early, we may see sales spike sooner than we think, which could impact the month of Dec-21 resulting in slower growth that anticipated. We are also predicting another year of modest growth in 2022 as the toy market continues to excel off the back of the pandemic before flattening out in the next few years.

Item Progression

Playset Doll Accessories have generated £20m and account for 2% share of the total market, proving to be an enduringly popular category for consumers. The Sylvanian Families Hillcrest Home Gift Set has enjoyed huge success, climbing 140 places to become the 15th ranked item for the month of October 2021 in the total market. With gift sets more in demand as we gear up for Christmas, this item alone has generated £320K for October, an increase of triple digits from the previous month. Distribution increased by three percentage points but with only 17% distribution currently, this item is selling three times faster than last month based on value velocity.

Fastest growing subclasses - YTD October 2021 vs. 2020

We’ve seen a variety of subclasses excel this year with the top 10 fastest growing adding over +£63m to the market. The growth in collectibles has meant that categories such as STCG, Miscellaneous Toys, Non-STC/Collectibles and AF collectibles have added nearly +£40m alone. Outside the collectible categories, and also helped by stores reopening, the standout category this year is Traditional Plush. Ty has come back into growth with Beanie Boos as the No.1 item in the category, growing by +51%. Rainbocorns, an IP which has done well from Zuru, has seen new items do well in this category; Rainbocorns Puppycorn Surprise is the No.2 item adding an incremental +£1.2m. It’s also worth noting that some of the key hero lockdown categories are continuing to perform well in a non-lockdown period; Fashion Dolls and Standard Building Sets have both added +£5.9m each. Fashion Dolls has seen new IPs such as the OMG Dance

Dance Dance Doll, the Barbie Doll with Pet and Accessories and the Love Diana Princess of Play Doll which have all bought incremental value to this subclass. Newness also drives the success of the Standard Building Sets subclass with the new WBCP x Lego item Minifigures Looney Tunes Asst the No.1 item in the subclass. The success of Hot Wheels ad Monster Jam means that Mini Vehicles is the 7th fastest growing subclass in the market today. As category trend shifts, we hope to see the lower price point items continue to sell well as stocking filler items, as well as parents splurging for Christmas with the higher price point items.