NPD Insight

Looking good for 2022

This month, Melissa looks at recent notable changes in the toy market, how 2021 ended up and how the market looks for 2022.

In the last two years the world has changed rapidly as Covid-19 has impacted how we live, work and play together. Since 2019, the UK toy market has also changed and is now worth £3.2b with 327m units sold. Overall, in 2021 the UK market was down -3% in value for the full year, but up +2% versus 2019. This means we kept 35% of the value gained in 2020 during multiple lockdowns with both adults and children turning to toys and play to occupy their time. So how else has the market changed?

Looking back over the last two years shows an interesting picture, with seven out of eleven supercategories having a higher value than in 2019. Building Sets has the strongest growth, up +19% and now accounting for 15% of the toy market, up from 13% share in 2019. This growth has been driven by combination of strong licences such as Star Wars, Harry Potter and Marvel Universe in addition to appealing to Kidults (12+) through Creator Expert, Lego Ideas and Lego Technic ranges. Games & Puzzles is the second fastest growing category in the last two years, up +16% or an additional +£36m, now representing 12% of sales. The category retained 85% of the 2020 gains in 2021, with the increase particularly strong with Strategic Trading Card games like Pokémon and Family Board & Action Games like Pictionary and Monopoly. In addition, Adult Puzzles, including those from Ravensburger and Jumbo, are up compared with pre-Covid sales.

Outdoor & Sports Toys is up +8% vs. 2019 despite being heavily reliant on the ever-changing British weather, as many families turned to their gardens for entertainment. In particular, Playground Equipment, Pools, Sports Activities and Bubble Toys are all up double-digits versus 2019. Explorative & Other Toys has also increased strongly, +10%, mostly driven by the category’s 2021 performance; Panini Euro Championship Stickers enjoyed strong sales over the summer, while fidget toys/push poppers were popular across the whole twelve months.

Recovering quickly from the challenges of 2020, Vehicles and Plush are both above 2019 sales, up +7% and +3% respectively. In Vehicles, Hot Wheels and Monster Jam were the strongest drivers of growth. In addition, Arts & Crafts retained 56% of gains in 2020, finishing 2021 +5% above 2019 with Play-Doh, Kinetic Sand and Crayola all improving on their 2019 performance.

However, not all categories have grown, with the largest supercategory, Infant/Toddler and Pre-school Toys, down -12% vs. 2019. This has been driven by the Infant/Toddler segment, where we may be seeing the results of lower birth rates in the UK over the last two years, as young couples decided to put off having families during the pandemic period. Dolls is also down -11% vs. 2019, driven by a decline in Playset Dolls, even as Fashion Dolls has grown +56% in the last two years. However, Dolls is now the third largest supercategory accounting for 14% of all toy sales in the last year. Action Figures and Accessories enjoyed a better 2021, flat vs. 2020, but still down -8% vs. 2019, with Role Play & Dress Up declining. In Youth Electronics, the Robotic & Interactive Playmates decline has driven the category down -15% over the last two years and is the smallest supercategory with just 2% of total toy sales.

Over the last two years the licensed toy market has increased in importance and grown +16% vs. 2019, accounting for 28% of the market – or more than £1 in every £4 spent on toys – matching the licensed share highs we had in 2015, the year when Disney Frozen and Star Wars were the top two properties in the market.

Returning to more recent times, Q4 2021 performance was not as strong as the first three quarters of the year. However, the final weeks prior to Christmas were stronger with week 52 (finishing on Christmas Day) up +35% in value - the strongest week 52 performance in Europe. This growth has continued into the first couple of weeks of 2022, with the UK up +9% vs. 21 and up +20% vs. 2019. Seven out of eleven Supercategories are up double-digits compared to 2021, which is a strong start to the year. This bodes well for 2022, with numerous new launches and innovations planned in addition to big movies such as Jurassic World 3, Minions 2 and multiple DC and Marvel superhero films, which all have the potential to drive market growth for the rest of the year.

Item Progression:

Traditionally, Games items are strong performers in December, with 38% of annual sales in the month (compared to 24% for total toys). Several Games leapt up the rankings, with Articulate moving up 452 positions to the No.27 best-seller for the month. Narrowly missing out on the Fastest Item Progression title was The Logo Game (2nd Edition), which moved from No.185 in November to No.9 in December. However, Pictionary Air was the No.2 best-selling item for December, with Monopoly Classic at No.7. This means three of the top 10 items for the month were games.

Fastest Growing Properties by value - These 10 properties have added over £80m to the UK toy market in 2021:

Although the total toy market declined slightly in 2021, there were a number of properties that had strong performances throughout the year. In total over 400 properties grew in 2021, with the top ten gaining properties adding over £80m to the UK toy market. Pokémon had a very strong year, finishing 2021 as the fastest gaining property in the UK market with the Strategic Trading Cards growing every single month.

The Euro Championship Football tournament in the summer helped the World Soccer licence become the second fastest growing property, with Panini Collectible Stickers the key driver of sales. Kidults, or toys purchased for those over the age of 12, also had an impact on the toy market in 2021, with Lego Creator Expert the third fastest growing range, including products such as the Ghostbusters Ecto 1 and Botantical Collection Flower Bouquet aimed at a higher age group.

Licences had another year of growth in 2021, growing +3% with film related properties like Marvel Universe and Star Wars adding to sales. For Marvel, the fourth fastest growing property in the year, the late release of Spider-Man No Way Home in addition to the strong Avengers offerings throughout the year all added up to success. Star Wars benefited from ranges based on The Mandalorian, which now accounts for a third of total Star Wars property sales.

Doll properties also had a strong year, with Rainbow High doubling sales in the last year and Barbie experiencing the third year in a row of growth; now x2.5 larger than it was in 2018. In December, the best-selling item for the month was the Barbie Dreamhouse. 5 Surprise Mini Brand collectibles was the key driver to the 5 Surprise property in the last year.

Minecraft also enjoyed a second year of growth, with both the Building Sets and Action Figures growing adding over £6m sales to the property in 2021.