4 minute read
Opinion - Circana & Generation Media
Toying with the future
Generation Media and Circana join forces to look ahead and offer a glimpse into how the UK toy market is expected to look in 2035. Alex Taylor-Smith and Rory Partis report…
In a collaborative effort between Generation Media & Circana, industry leaders gathered at London Toy Fair to peer into the crystal ball at the UK toy market. The comprehensive forecast, presented at the "Toying with the Future" event, charts a transformative trajectory for the sector, driven by demographic shifts, evolving consumer behaviour and technological advances. This glimpse into the UK Toy Market in 2035 can be comprised of the below themes:
The changing face of consumers
One of the report’s standout revelations is the declining media investments in reaching traditional children’s demographics. For the first time, it is estimated that this year, total spending targeted at kids is estimated to drop below 50%, reflecting a pivot towards “kidults” (ages 12+) and parental/gifting audiences. This evolution mirrors broader societal trends: fewer births, an ageing population and the rise of child-free households.
By 2035, single-child families are projected to dominate, with 50% of households falling into this category, up from 45% today. This phenomenon could reshape purchasing patterns. Guilt-driven spending among parents may fuel demand for higher-quality, premium toys. At the same time, the “eco-parent” and “minimalist kids” personas are predicted to emerge, focusing on sustainable, locally sourced and versatile products that align with a back-to-basics ethos.
Shifting play paradigms
The way children play could undergo a seismic shift. Screen bans in bedrooms, maybe - but a return to open-ended, creativity-driven play reflecting a desire to counterbalance the overwhelming presence of technology in young lives, almost definitely. Simultaneously, advancements in AI and virtual reality are expected to redefine play. Toys in 2035 aren’t just companions but are increasingly integrated into digital ecosystems, offering connected, solo play experiences.
Interestingly, this dual trend encapsulates both nostalgia for traditional play and an embrace of cutting-edge technology. Retailers and manufacturers will need to navigate this delicate balance, ensuring they cater to both ends of the spectrum.
Kidults: the growth engine
The Kidults category now accounts for 30% of the toy market, double its share from 2015. This demographic’s penchant for collectibles, gaming and fandom-driven products has elevated categories like building sets and licensed properties. The rise of adult consumers reflects toys’ ability to provide joy, stress relief and social connection — all crucial in a post-pandemic world where mental health and well-being are paramount.
Moreover, toys as home decor or personal expression are gaining traction. Whether it’s a Lego sculpture on a desk or a Squishmallow collection, toys have transcended childhood to become lifestyle statements.
The digital domination of media
The media landscape for toys has experienced a radical overhaul. By 2035, digital media could command 100% of advertising budgets, rendering traditional TV commercials obsolete in their current forms. Brands are investing in shorter, more impactful content, perhaps even under six seconds and bingeworthy formats exceeding two hours. Contextually smart, AI-driven ads dominate the space, offering unparalleled precision in reaching targeted audiences.
Going that one step further with regards to the ongoing regulatory evolution, including COPPA 3.0, could enforce children under 13 off social media platforms completely. This shift compels brands to refocus on parents and kidults as primary buyers, while ensuring compliance with stringent advertising guidelines.
Sustainability takes centre stage
The sustainability movement is no longer a trend, but a necessity. Consumers are demanding toys that align with their values, from recycled materials to durable designs. “De-consumption” — a mindset of valuing quality over quantity — is driving demand for minimalist products. This approach not only resonates with eco-conscious parents, but also aligns with Gen Z’s priorities as they step into parenting roles.
The joy economy
Despite economic uncertainties, toys remain a source of accessible joy. The “joy economy”, as dubbed by Circana, underscores toys’ enduring role in creating happiness, be it through shared family experiences or individual pleasure. 47% of adults cited fun and mental health benefits as reasons for purchasing toys. This insight highlights an opportunity for brands to position themselves as purveyors of affordable joy across a diverse range of consumers.
Looking ahead to 2035
Growth in the toy market will be fuelled by a rise in purchase occasions, with more reasons to purchase outside of Christmas and birthdays. Online sales will continue to thrive, with social commerce driving growth in this channel. Physical stores will transform into experiential hubs, blending retail with interactive play spaces.
As the market evolves, innovation will be critical. From leveraging AI to reimagining sustainability, brands must remain agile to capture the hearts and wallets of a diverse consumer base. The future of toys is as dynamic and imaginative as the industry itself, and those willing to embrace change will undoubtedly thrive.
