Insight - Circana

Variations on a theme

Emilie examines the themes that have shaped the toy market across 2024, and looks at those which are likely to have an impact in 2025.

The London and Nuremberg toy fairs are now just behind us, and it was exciting to see all the new launches for this year with Superheroes, Dinosaurs and Dragons back. Meanwhile, the themes that have driven toys sales in 2024 have become apparent.

At the time of writing, Christmas sales results have just been released, and December growth helped to smooth the overall market decline to -3.7% in value sales for full-year 2024 versus 2023, even though this was not enough to compensate for a challenging year. However, some themes still managed to grow; the largest were Other Animals and Other Animals Characters, adding a combined +£36m to the toy market. Cats and Dogs were also in growth, highlighting the UK consumers’ love of pets and animals overall. Other Animals is the second largest theme in value sales in toys after Transportation. More than a quarter of Other Animals sales came from Plush, which drives the growth, via Snackles & Pets Alive from Zuru, Moose Toys’ Cookeez Makery and Spin Master’s Hatchimals. Playsets Dolls & Accessories also helped to grow this theme via new micro collectibles launches such as Squish-a-longs from Jazwares and Littlest Pet Shop from Bandai, as well as Robotic/Interactive Playmates and Infant/Toddler toys. In addition to Animals there is Other Animals Characters, which is the sixth largest theme and the second fastest growing. Stitch (even though he is technically an alien) was by far the largest contributor to the gain, reaching the No.3 property in this theme. Sonic The Hedgehog, Paddington Bear and Lion King also contributed to the growth, supported by late 2024 movie releases. These movies were released quite late in the year, but at the busiest sales periods for toys, so Sonic reached the No.3 ranking property in Action Figures & Accessories in October-December 2024, and Paddington Bear entered the top 10 Traditional Plush this Christmas, showing the impact blockbuster releases can have on core category.

Pro Sport Leagues sales went up +25% in 2024 compared to 2023 and was the third highest gaining theme. Football takes by far the largest share of this theme in the UK, with National football leagues performing strongly in Strategic and Non-Strategic Trading Cards and the boost from the Euros in 2024. Adrenalyn XL Premier League 2024 2025 Mega Tin and Multipacks from Panini were the bestselling items in 2024. Racing cars also performed well, with NASCAR and Formula One sales up, plus the success of the Lego Speed Champions range. The Olympics, of course, also had an impact. There are further opportunities for more sports to feature in toys, in sectors ranging from Action Figures Collectibles to Sport Toys, as they do the US. More high profile UK champions, such as Luke Littler in Darts, can turn the spotlight onto lesserknown sports with a strong toy potential.

Finally, there’s a touch of magic back in toys: Fantasy Creatures, Dragons, Unicorns and Witch/Wizards were all in growth last year. Fantasy Creatures was up +20% in 2024, across Plush, Action Figures & Dolls, mainly driven by Monster High, Wednesday, Godzilla vs. Kong and Furby. The final season of Stranger Things, coming later this year, may also boost this theme in 2025. Dragons bounced back +47% via Building Sets and should grow in 2025 with the release of the live action How to Train Your Dragon movie. Unicorn Academy from Spin Master was the top new property in Dolls in 2024, and Wicked helped Witches/Wizards to be in positive growth for the year, reaching the top 10 gaining licence in total toys in 2024. In 2025, Superheroes (which is the No.5 bestselling theme with sales of over £70m) and Dinosaurs are likely to bounce back, while Fantasy/Dragon should continue to grow, thanks to big movie and TV releases. Licensing will continue to support the growth of many of those themes; licensed toys generated a record 35% of total toys value sales in 2024, with sales up +3%. TV/DVD/ Digital and Movies continue to have the greatest influence on toys, accounting for around 30% of total toy sales in 2024. However, the lines are blurring with Video Games IP, such as Sonic or Super Mario, releasing theatrical movies in the last few years, and Preschool TV shows like Gabby’s Dollhouse and Bluey also launching on the big screen. Some movies are available on streaming platforms very soon after their release, and the toy industry could be capitalising more on the multi-channel media calendar to boost sales on multiple occasions throughout the year.

Licensed growth is likely to continue, in toys and other categories, supported by strong existing and new IPs; and Circana will be bringing its Toys and CPG expertise together to help unlock opportunities for licensing beyond toys this year.

Item Progression:

The Articulate game from Tomy is the fastest item progression for December and is not only the No.1 item in Adult Games for the month, but also for the full year. Games (excluding Trade Card Games) is the second bestselling subsegment in December, with 36% of its annual sales generated in the last five weeks of the year, compared to 23% for total toys. Sales of Adult Games are even more concentrated in December, with this month accounting for almost half of the annual value sales in this subclass. However, perhaps this suggests that there is an opportunity to grow the category outside Christmas.

Fastest Growing Licences:

Licensed toys sales are up +3% in 2024, compared to -7% for nonlicensed. Licensed Toys reached an impressive 35% of overall sales for YTD December 2024, up +2pts versus a year ago and up +6pts compared to 2021.

The top-gaining licence in 2024 is Lilo & Stitch, as anticipation builds for the live-action movie to be released in cinemas this summer. Sales for the property jumped more than four times in 2024 versus the year before, mostly from Building Sets, Action Figure Collectibles and Plush. Having expanded across many different types of products, the licence is now registering sales in 41 different subclasses, double the number of the previous year.

Mercedes-Benz and McLaren licences are being driven by The Lego Group, with a popular range of racing cars at a wide range of price points to target every consumer’s budget: Speed Champions McLaren F1 Race Car was the bestselling item for McLaren at £17.89 average selling price, followed by the Lego technic Technic McLaren P1 at £333.84.

Bluey was the No.7 gaining licence and entered the top 5 bestselling licences in total toys in 2024, continuing its steady growth since launch. Bluey Family Figure 4 Pack 7.5cm is the top-selling item, whilst the DreamToys-recognised Bluey 3-in-1 Airplane Playset from Moose was the No.4 item for Bluey in 2024.

The success of Despicable Me/Minions, Sonic the Hedgehog, Lion King and Wicked was driven by movie releases. Standard Building Sets was one of the top subclasses for each of these licences, with new launches attracting strong sales which often started several months before the movie release. Despicable Me, Sonic and MrBeast were among the top 5 gaining properties in Action Figures & Accessory, and Despicable Me 4 The Ultimate Fart Blaster was the No.3 bestselling item in this supercategory in 2024.