Circana Insight

Summer toys - it’s not all about fun in the sun

Rory looks at toy sales over the summer months and how both predictable and unpredictable factors come into play at his time of year.

Summer is here at last; it took its time to arrive but the good weather in the first couple of weeks of June has been very welcome. An important period for the toy market, around a fifth of the value of UK toys value is spent from June to August. Naturally, there is a focus on Outdoor Toys during this period; around 40% of Outdoor & Sports Toys were purchased from June to August in 2022, comparable to the share at Christmas for some other categories. But it’s not just about Outdoor Toys during the summer months, there is so much more going on with school holidays, summer movie blockbusters and whether we might have a toy craze to take that pocket money spend.

Looking at the trends of summer over the last few years is quite a challenge because, as with a lot of areas of the market, trends were impacted by Covid and lockdowns. In 2019 summer sales (June to August) were £379m, and in 2020 this had grown +8% and was worth £411m. An impressive increase but not really a fair comparison as lockdown and exceptionally good weather meant that there was a surge in Outdoor Toy sales over this period. What is interesting is that summer sales stayed at this level in 2021 and 2022, with a small increase in 2O22 vs. 2021. In 2022 summer sales were £416m compared to £379m in the pre Covid summer of 2019. There should have been a World Cup in summer 2022 too, (the tournament being held in Qatar meant a move to winter months), so it could have been even better. Category trends are as expected, with Playground Equipment, Pools and Water/Sand Toys amongst the top performers. But strong trends for other categories include Building Sets, Plush and Strategic Trading Cards as the top three growth categories. These trends are in line with the category trends for the year but there are some key trends that we can look at that are particular to summer.

Summer blockbuster movies can have a big impact on toys sales and generate interest in the market. 2022 had a strong slate of summer releases including Jurassic World, Lightyear and Minions: Rise of Gru. Movies showed a +24% trend in summer 2022 vs. 2021, compared to total market growth of +1%. Movie related sales accounted for around 12% of the total market over this period, up from 9.5% in 2021. The standout success was Jurassic World, with £6.5m in toys sales over the summer months - and this strong start lead to an excellent Q4 for the franchise.

This year has another impressive set of summer releases that should have a significant impact on toy sales: a new Transformers movie, a debut movie for Barbie and a Ninja Turtles movie later in summer too. All have real potential to stimulate sales but at the time of writing only Transformers: Rise of the Beasts has been released. For the two weeks leading up to movie release date, the Transformers brand shows a trend of +135% vs. the same period last year, so got off to a great start. A huge amount of buzz around the Barbie and Turtles movies suggests another strong summer for movie related properties.

Is there a summer craze this year? We’ve had quite a few over the years: loom bands, squishy toys, slime and fidget spinners to name a few, but there hasn’t been one for a while. This can have a huge impact, boosting sales with additional spend over the summer and enhancing volume trends too.

The great weather here in the UK means we have seen a +28% trend for Outdoor & Sports Toys, but as summer isn’t just about Outdoor Toys, there’s a whole lot more to look forward too.

Property Progression:

The Lego Minifigures property was the fastest riser in May, moving up 109 places compared to April. This growth has been driven by Minifigures Disney 100, which were the No.3 item in value within the total UK toy market for the month of May, at an average price of £3.51. These Minifigures include 18 classic Disney characters with favourites including Pocahontas, Baymax and Aurora from Sleeping Beauty. As the 100th anniversary of Disney celebrations continue, it’s likely that even more related items and properties will enter the top selling lists.

Fastest Growing Subclasses - Ranked by value gained

Strategic Trading Cards is the top growing subclass so far in 2023, adding £6.6m in YTD May 2023 vs. 2022. Pokémon continues to be the standout performer in this subclass and has added £4.7m this year, a significant portion of the £6.6m added value in the subclass. Other growth comes from both World Soccer and Match Attax adding value in 2023.

Traditional plush is the second top subclass for value add, with £6.3m in additional value in 2023 so far. Squishmallows continues to be the top driver of growth and is the second best performing property in the UK market in 2023, only being outperformed by Pokémon. Squishmallows 8” Plush is the No.1 item in the total market in 2023 and the 12” Plush is at No.3. Success stories within this category come from a combination of traditional plush and licensed ranges; the Bluey, Pokémon, Nintendo and Paddington Bear licences have been doing particularly well.

The subclass in third place for growth is Standard Building Sets, adding £4.7m in 2023 so far. Star Wars continues to be the top performer within this subclass and is also the top property in the total UK market in 2023. There are several Lego Star Wars items in the top 50 items in toys, taking up eight of the top 50 spots in the first five months of the year. Other growing areas of the sub category include Marvel Universe, Lego Icons, Minecraft and Pokémon.