Circana - Insight

A summer of sport

With sales in May picking up, albeit modestly, Melissa looks at the contribution Sports-related toy sales have on the UK market, as high-profile summer sporting events add their impact, alongside the all-important weather forecasts.

It’s fair to say that the start of 2024 has been another challenging period for the UK Toy market. Sales YTD May 2024 are down -4%, representing a decline of £20m in value, while volume is down by 4m units compared to same period last year. The Dolls and Infant/Toddler & Preschool Toys categories have seen the steepest declines. However, May was slightly more positive, with sales up +1% in value for the month – the first monthly growth outside of Easter-related movement since January 2023. While six out of eleven Supercategories grew in May, one of the key reasons for the strong May performance is that Outdoor and Sports Toys had an encouraging month. Outdoor and Sports Toys grew +5%, becoming the largest supercategory for the month, adding just over £1m sales to the industry. The brief burst of sunshine during May meant that Water/Sand Toys and Water Blasters enjoyed double digit growth - as did Pools and Playground Equipment, with Trampolines performing particularly well.

The weather can make or break the summer months, with Outdoor and Sports Toys traditionally dominating sales from May to August. This year there is additional support for Sports-related items from the Euro-Championship Football Tournament in June and July, plus the Olympics in Paris. Hopefully these events will encourage kids to purchase more outdoor toys – or at least toys related to sports. Already in May, the Topp’s Euro 2024 Stickers Multipack reached the top-ten best selling toys for the month; along with Miniverse and Lankybox, this has helped the Explorative & Others category grow +13% for May.

Overall, Sports-related toys and licences have sold £57m in the last twelve months, up +30% or +£13m from two years ago, just slightly behind the growth of Video Game related sales. World Soccer is the largest property within the Sports sub-category, accounting for two-thirds of sales YTD May 2024. In addition, other sports have also seen strong growth, including motor sports such as Formula 1 & Nascar, Tony Hawk and, surprisingly for the UK, National Basketball Association (NBA) from US. The largest category for Sports related toys is Non-Strategic Trading Cards & Collectible Stickers, where Topps and Panini have strong shares. Standard Building Sets and Mini Vehicles are the next largest, with Lego Speed Champions and Monster Jam & Hot Wheels Monster Trucks consistently performing well. There is also growth from Action Figures Collectibles and Card Games for Sports.

Video Game-related toys have also enjoyed strong growth over the last two years, up +£18m, although with many Video Game characters also having movie and TV shows released, the lines are starting to blur more and more. While the top properties in Video Games remain Pokémon, Minecraft and Super Mario Bros, there has been more growth coming from smaller properties. Sonic the Hedgehog is now the second fastest growing licence across total toys YTD May 2024, with sales doubled from the same period last year. Five Nights at Freddy’s is also growing double-digits, while Adopt Me! and Animal Crossing are seeing strong sales this year. Overall, Games and Puzzles accounts for 47% of Video Game related toys – and that’s not just from Strategic Trading Cards. There has been strong growth from Family Board/Action Games and Card Games so far this year, as well as from Plush and Children’s Puzzles.

While 2024 may have fewer blockbuster films than previous year – with fewer superhero movies being released due to the writers and actors strike last year – sales of Movie related toys are still increasing compared to two years ago, while TV related sales have declined. Some digital/influencer properties under the TV/DVD/Digital attribute have performed well, with Aphmau and Lankybox in particular growing over the past year - although not quite hitting the highs of more traditional properties.

The next few weeks are sure to have their own challenges, be that from the weather, or simply consumer willingness to spend after a General Election -albeit this is not a challenge solely for toy retailers, but all retail channels. Circana’s tracking of All Outlets on consumer-packaged goods has total Non-Food declining -0.4% in value for the four weeks ending 1st June, and even the Food sector growth slowing to +0.8% as inflation slows. In comparison, the UK Toy market May’s growth of +1% is comparable, and even ahead of other Non-Food. Hopefully, this is an encouraging sign for the rest of the year.

Item Progression:

While it wasn’t consistent for the full month, some sunshine in May helped drive the Outdoor and Sports Toys Supercategory, up +5% in value compared to May 2023. A lot of outdoor items moved up into the top sellers, with Bunch of Balloons 3 Pack from Zuru the fastest progressing individual SKU, increasing 533 positions. HTI’s Go Play Bubble Wand Assortment reached the top ten as the top selling new item, while MGA’s Little Tikes Fountain Factory Water Table was also in the top twenty best sellers for the month across total toys.

Fastest Growing Properties

Licensed toys now account for 33% of all toy sales in UK and continues to out-perform non-licensed toy sales YTD May 2024, up +1% compared to -6% decline for non-licensed toys. Continuing its success from the movie release in 2023, TMNT is the fastest growing licence so far this year, up nearly £2m in additional sales. While Action Figures & Accessories account for 82% of sales, growth from Vehicles - especially the Pull Back range from Funrise - has also been strong.

Sonic the Hedgehog is the second fastest growing licence in the UK, with Action Figure Collectibles performing strongly in addition to Standard Building Sets, Traditional Plush and Collectible Stickers all growing. Overall, Sonic has more than doubled sales so far this year.

As May was the lead up to the start of the Euro Championships Football tournament, it’s no surprise to see European Soccer International licence as the third fastest growing licence with Topps UEFA Euro 2024 Sticker Collection Multipack entering the top 10 best selling items for the month.

Following success in 2023, Lilo and Stich continues to grow as the range expands. Just Play’s collectibles and Simba’s Traditional Plush have more than doubled in sales, while Lego’s construction range and Sambro’s Special Feature Plush and Paint Kits have added to the growth so far this year.

Formula One racing cars are behind the growth of both Mercedes-Benz and McLaren licences, with Lego’s F1 sets performing strongly since the start of the Formula One season in March 2024. Gabby’s Dollhouse also continues to grow, with Pre-School Figures & Accessories the largest category and growing +12%.

Disney’s Wish is new since May 2023 with Dolls accounting for 64% of the licensed sales, while Godzilla vs. Kong is now the No.2 property in the Action Figures Subclass YTD May, following a new movie release earlier in the year.