NPD Insight

Growing up fast

Rory looks at the effect the expanding Kidult market is having on other categories in the toy market, particularly in the UK.

Over the last few years, one of the areas of the UK toy market that has consistently seen growth is the Kidult category. We often like to focus on areas of growth as a big positive, but sometimes we also need to think about the impact on other areas of the market. In the UK we have seen 11m more items purchased for kidults (12+ Years) over the lastfive years, but over the same period we have seen 68m fewer items purchased for under 12 years. The under 12 years age group makes up around three quarters of the UK toy market value, so that loss will have a far greater impact on the market. If we look specifically at the UK, compared to 2017, the decline in item sales to under 12s is 17%; however, in the rest of Europe it’s only -2%. So, let’s focus on just what is happening in the younger age groups to see what has been driving those declines in the UK.

As mentioned earlier, the 17% sales decline in the under 11 age group over the last five years equates to a drop of nearly £500m. This group represented 79% of the market in 2017, while it now represents 71%, a drop of eight percentage points over five years. Splitting this age out further, we can see that it is the younger age groups which are driving the decline. Whilst 6-10s have seen a drop, it is not as stark as the 0-5s, which have seen a value decline of -23% vs. 2017. We have seen a decline in toys purchased for 0-5s every single year since 2017. Furthermore, every single supercategory has declined for this age group over that time, so it is very much a consistent trend. Looking at the individual categories, there is one in particular that stands out - Infant/ Toddler & Pre-School Toys. This supercategory has lost £150m in value for 0-5s since 2017, so let’s look at what’s happening in this area.

Infant/Toddler & Pre-School Toys (ITPS) is the No.1 supercategory for the 0-5 age group and is in fact the largest in the total toy market, worth around 16% of the UK toy market in 2021. However, the supercategory saw a decline in 2021 which was three times faster than the total market decline. Looking at the decline over the last four years, we can see that two thirds of it has come from the Infant/Toddler segment. This is an area of the toy market that is affected by outside influences, particularly around sustainability and more recently declining birth rates; it is reasonable to assume that both of these influences could have played a role in the long-term decline. Looking at the sustainability issue, we can see that the Infant/Toddler & Pre-School Toys supercategory has one of the highest value shares of its total value being wooden, growing from 9% in 2018 to over 12% of the category in 2021. With more and more toy items now moving to having at least some of their components coming from sustainable materials, could this help push the Infant/Toddler category back to growth in 2022? Some of the top licences in the supercategory for wood include Peppa Pig, Hey Duggee and In the Night Garden, with each of those properties growing their sales with wood in 2021.

Another area of growth in 2021 was licensing, moving up to a joint all time high share of 28% of the UK market, growing by +3% vs. 2020. However, this is not so much the case in the Infant/Toddler & Pre-School Toys supercategory; the share of licensing here is significantly lower at 22%, and the value saw a small decline in 2021. Although there have been some notable success stories in licensing for 2021 in this area, including new lines featuring Bluey and CoComelon adding value, the lower share of licensing within this younger category is another factor which seems to have impacted overall sales.

Another key factor behind this decline is the declining birth rate in the UK: there have been 100k fewer babies born in the UK since 2017. This has inevitably had an impact on toy sales in the Infant/Toddler area. Although this not solely a UK trend, we have seen some slightly better stories in the rest of Europe, with the birth rate in Germany being up slightly and France having seen a higher number of babies born than the UK over the latest period. We also see a more encouraging trend in the rest of Europe for sales to children under 12, with the EU4 only declining by -2% compared to the UK at -17%. So, in the UK, we need a plan to help the market grow for both kidults and kids, and hopefully this can deliver growth in 2022.

Licence Progression:

The junior Spider-Man licence has performed well in January, moving inside the top 25 licences for the month. This has been helped with the addition of Lego Duplo items for the property, with the top two items for Spidey and his Amazing Friends for the month of January both being from The Lego Group. The licence has also been boosted by the release of Spider-Man No Way Home in cinemas in December, and we expect sales to stay strong across the first half of 2022.

Fastest Growing Subclasses Traditional plush is the top gaining subclass at the start of 2022

The top 10 growth subclasses in toys for the first month of 2022 can give an early indicator to what might turn out to be the big trends of the year. The top growth subclass in January was Traditional Plush, continuing the positive trend that this category experienced in 2021. The top gaining properties here are TY, Squishmallow and Little Live, with licence growth also coming from Star Wars.

Action Figure Collectibles is the 2nd top performer with Funko, Marvel and Star Wars all adding value. Strategic Trading Card Games is the third top performer, driven by Pokémon. This licence has enjoyed a strong first month of 2022, continuing on from a record-breaking performance in its 25th anniversary year in 2021.

Both Fashion Dolls and Playset Dolls are in the top performing subclasses for January with Fashion Dolls growth being driven by both Barbie and Rainbow High. Playset Dolls has seen an increase from Disney Princess, L.O.L Surprise! and Rainbocorns.