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Growing
up fast Rory looks at the effect the expanding Kidult market is having on other categories in the toy market, particularly in the UK.
Rory Partis
Director UK Toys & EuroToys NPD
O
their components coming from sustainable materials, £150m in value for 0-5s since 2017, so let’s look at what’s ver the last few years, one of the areas of could this help push the Infant/Toddler category back happening in this area. the UK toy market that has consistently to growth in 2022? Some of the top licences in the seen growth is the Kidult category. We Infant/Toddler & Pre-School Toys (ITPS) is the No.1 supercategory for wood include Peppa Pig, Hey Duggee often like to focus on areas of growth as a supercategory for the 0-5 age group and is in fact the and In the Night Garden, with each of those properties big positive, but sometimes we also need largest in the total toy market, worth around 16% of growing their sales with wood in 2021. to think about the impact on other areas of the market. the UK toy market in 2021. However, the supercategory In the UK we have seen 11m Another area of growth in more items purchased for 2021 was licensing, moving up kidults (12+ Years) over the last to a joint all time high share of five years, but over the same 28% of the UK market, growing period we have seen 68m fewer by +3% vs. 2020. However, this Over the last 5 years the share of the 0-11’s in the UK toy market has dropped is not so much the case in the items purchased for under 12 years. The under 12 years age from just under 80% to just over 70%. Infant/Toddler & Pre-School Over the last 5 years the share of the 0-11’s in the UK toy market has dropped group makes up around three Toys supercategory; the share from just under 80% to just over 70%. quarters of the UK toy market of licensing here is significantly value, so that loss will have a far 19.8% lower at 22%, and the value 27.3% greater impact on the market. 19.8% saw a small decline in 2021. 27.3% If we look specifically at the Although there have been UK, compared to 2017, the some notable success stories in decline in item sales to under licensing for 2021 in this area, 78.6% 78.6% 70.8% 70.8% 12s is 17%; however, in the rest including new lines featuring of Europe it’s only -2%. So, let’s Bluey and CoComelon adding focus on just what is happening value, the lower share of in the younger age groups to 2017 2021 licensing within this younger 2017 2021 see what has been driving 0-11 Years 12+ Years category is another factor 0-11 Years 12+ Years those declines in the UK. Source: The NPD Group | NPD Consumer Data| UK which seems to have impacted
UK Toys Change in Recipient Age
UK Toys Change in Recipient Age
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential As mentioned earlier, the Client/Third Party Confidential 17% sales decline in the under Document classification: The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential saw a decline in 2021 which was three times faster than 11 age group over the last five years equates to a drop the total market decline. Looking at the decline over of nearly £500m. This group represented 79% of the the last four years, we can see that two thirds of it has market in 2017, while it now represents 71%, a drop of come from the Infant/Toddler segment. This is an area eight percentage points over five years. Splitting this age of the toy market that is affected by outside influences, out further, we can see that it is the younger age groups particularly around sustainability and more recently which are driving the decline. Whilst 6-10s have seen declining birth rates; it is reasonable to assume that a drop, it is not as stark as the 0-5s, which have seen a both of these influences could have played a role in the value decline of -23% vs. 2017. We have seen a decline long-term decline. Looking at the sustainability issue, in toys purchased for 0-5s every single year since 2017. we can see that the Infant/Toddler & Pre-School Toys Furthermore, every single supercategory has declined supercategory has one of the highest value shares of for this age group over that time, so it is very much a its total value being wooden, growing from 9% in 2018 consistent trend. Looking at the individual categories, to over 12% of the category in 2021. With more and there is one in particular that stands out - Infant/ more toy items now moving to having at least some of Toddler & Pre-School Toys. This supercategory has lost Document classification: Client/Third Party Confidential
Toy World 30
overall sales.
1 Source: The NPD Group | NPD Consumer Data| UK
1 behind this decline is the declining Another key factor birth rate in the UK: there have been 100k fewer babies born in the UK since 2017. This has inevitably had an impact on toy sales in the Infant/Toddler area. Although this not solely a UK trend, we have seen some slightly better stories in the rest of Europe, with the birth rate in Germany being up slightly and France having seen a higher number of babies born than the UK over the latest period. We also see a more encouraging trend in the rest of Europe for sales to children under 12, with the EU4 only declining by -2% compared to the UK at -17%. So, in the UK, we need a plan to help the market grow for both kidults and kids, and hopefully this can deliver growth in 2022.
