Market study quinoa (english)

The Quinoa Quest A look into current and future markets

Prepared by: Globally Cool - International Business Made Easy

Final report March 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................... 4 1.1

1.1.1

Exports ............................................................................................................................. 4

1.1.2

World imports and leading importing countries ............................................................. 4

1.1.3

Trade prices ..................................................................................................................... 4

1.2

Segmentation by product type........................................................................................ 4

1.2.2

Market access requirements ........................................................................................... 5

1.2.3

Organic versus conventional ........................................................................................... 5

1.2.4

Fairtrade .......................................................................................................................... 5

1.2.5

Margins ............................................................................................................................ 5

4

Global trends ........................................................................................................................... 5

1.3.1

Market trends .................................................................................................................. 5

1.3.2

Production trends ............................................................................................................ 6

1.4

3

Global trade channels, segments and requirements .............................................................. 4

1.2.1

1.3

2

Global trade flows 2012-2015 ................................................................................................. 4

Global forecast ........................................................................................................................ 6

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY ...................................................................... 7 2.1

Statistical product definition ................................................................................................... 7

2.2

METHODOLOGY....................................................................................................................... 7

2.2.1

Primary research ............................................................................................................. 7

2.2.2

Desk research .................................................................................................................. 7

GLOBAL TRADE FLOWS 2012-2015 ........................................................................... 8 3.1

World exports .......................................................................................................................... 8

3.2

World imports and leading importing countries ..................................................................... 8

3.3

Trade prices ........................................................................................................................... 10

GLOBAL TRADE CHANNELS, SEGMENTS AND REQUIREMENTS .........................11 4.1

Trade channels and segments ............................................................................................... 11

4.2

Market segmentation ............................................................................................................ 12

4.3

Barriers to trade .................................................................................................................... 12

4.4

Product and additional requirements ................................................................................... 13

4.4.1

Basic specifications ........................................................................................................ 13

4.4.2

Food safety certification ................................................................................................ 14

4.4.3

Optional specifications .................................................................................................. 15

4.4.4

Packaging and handling ................................................................................................. 15

4.4.5

Labelling......................................................................................................................... 16

4.5

Conventional versus Organic and Fairtrade .......................................................................... 16

4.6

Grain, intermediary or processed?........................................................................................ 17

4.7

Margins .................................................................................................................................. 18

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5

GLOBAL TRENDS .......................................................................................................19 5.1

5.1.1

Authenticity and variation ............................................................................................. 19

5.1.2

Gluten free..................................................................................................................... 21

5.1.3

Vegetarian/Vegan/Flexitarian ....................................................................................... 21

5.1.4

Organic .......................................................................................................................... 22

5.1.5

Quinoa as an ingredient ................................................................................................ 23

5.2

6

Market trends ........................................................................................................................ 19

Production trends.................................................................................................................. 24

5.2.1

Bolivia and Peru dominate supply ................................................................................. 24

5.2.2

Production has been launched in several other countries............................................ 24

GLOBAL FORECAST ..................................................................................................25 6.1

Three groups ......................................................................................................................... 25

6.2

Group 1 – Premium segment driven markets ....................................................................... 26

6.2.1

Absolute growth 2015-2025 .......................................................................................... 26

6.2.2

Relative growth 2015-2025 ........................................................................................... 27

6.2.3

Preliminary data for 2015.............................................................................................. 27

6.3

Group 2 – Mainstream segment driven markets .................................................................. 28

6.3.1

Absolute growth 2015-2025 .......................................................................................... 28

6.3.2

Relative growth 2015-2025 ........................................................................................... 29

6.3.3

Preliminary data for 2015.............................................................................................. 29

6.4

Group 3 – Budget segment driven markets .......................................................................... 31

6.4.1

Absolute growth 2015-2025 .......................................................................................... 31

6.4.2

Relative growth 2015-2025 ........................................................................................... 32

6.4.3

Preliminary data for 2015.............................................................................................. 33

6.5

Best opportunities for market entry in Group 1 countries ................................................... 34

7

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................36

8

ATTACHMENTS ...........................................................................................................37 8.1

Quinoa in a nutshell – Focus countries ................................................................................. 37

8.1.1

Australia......................................................................................................................... 37

8.1.2

Canada ........................................................................................................................... 37

8.1.3

France ............................................................................................................................ 37

8.1.4

Italy ................................................................................................................................ 38

8.1.5

Germany ........................................................................................................................ 38

8.1.6

Netherlands ................................................................................................................... 38

8.1.7

UK .................................................................................................................................. 39

8.1.8

USA ................................................................................................................................ 39

8.2

Google search trends ............................................................................................................ 40

8.2.1

Australia......................................................................................................................... 40

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8.2.2

Canada ........................................................................................................................... 42

8.2.3

France ............................................................................................................................ 45

8.2.4

Italy ................................................................................................................................ 47

8.2.5

Germany ........................................................................................................................ 49

8.2.6

Netherlands ................................................................................................................... 50

8.2.7

UK .................................................................................................................................. 53

8.2.8

USA ................................................................................................................................ 55

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1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This market study commissioned by the Trade for Development Centre and realised by Globally Cool is planned to contribute to improving the business management, market information and strategic planning capacities of producers' and export organisations in the production countries in South America.

Based on almost 80 interviews and additional desk research, the global market for quinoa has been detailed; not only based on the current situation but also a forecast for 2025 is included. The main findings of the several chapters are the following:

1.1 1.1.1

Global trade flows 2012-2015 Exports

The world’s major suppliers of quinoa are Peru and Bolivia. Especially Peruvian exports rose enormously in the past few years, resulting in Peru overtaking Bolivia as the world’s leading exporter.

1.1.2

World imports and leading importing countries

Compared to the world trade volume of rice (more than 40 million tonnes), and compared to the local consumption in the world’s largest producing countries (55 thousand tons in both Bolivia and Peru), trade volumes for quinoa are still relatively small (84.4 thousand tons). The relatively high price for quinoa results in a selected group of main importing countries, being the most developed nations in the world. The largest importing country is the USA, followed by Canada. Leading importing countries in Europe are France, Netherlands, Germany, UK, Italy and Belgium. Australia and Brazil are the only two countries from other continents then North America and Europe that make up the list of top ten countries. Several countries have experienced strong year-on-year growth since 2012. Countries with the highest growth in the period under review are: Mexico, Malaysia, Belgium, Chile, Japan, Italy and Denmark.

1.1.3

Trade prices

While prices went up considerably in 2012-2014 (from USD 3.2 in 2012, to USD 6.2 per kg in 2014), they dropped sharply in 2015 to a level below USD 5.0. How average trade prices will develop in the next years is extremely difficult to forecast, as the situation in early 2016 is a bit peculiar: while prices are low, the demand trend is just upward in most countries in the world.

1.2

Global trade channels, segments and requirements

Most common trade relations in the global quinoa market are between exporters from Peru and Bolivia and importers in the target markets. In a few cases (mainly USA /Canada and within Europe) the importer functions as a re-exporter to the target market. The food retail segment represents 80% of the global market, while about 50% of the total quinoa trade worldwide is estimated to be organic. Only less than 5% is fairtrade.

1.2.1

Segmentation by product type

Quinoa grain represents more than 85% of the global trade volume, followed by intermediate products (flakes, pops, quinoa flour; maximum 10% share), and processed products (e.g. muesli, granola, bars, cookies, pastas etc.). Although on consumer level it is expected that the next 10 years will see a strong growth for processed types, global trade volumes of these processed types are expected to grow less fast because often processed products are developed inside and for the local market. But still, there are good opportunities for exporting processed quinoa products from Peru and Bolivia to the world’s leading quinoa importing countries.

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1.2.2

Market access requirements

Quinoa can enter most top 30 markets duty-free, but there are several (smaller) markets that levy a tax on quinoa imports. The basic specifications vary considerably around the world. They vary from company to company and also from country to country, depending on the country’s legislation in place. In July 2015 an international standard for quinoa was proposed by Bolivia. This standard is currently awaiting approval by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC).

The key requirements for quinoa deal with food safety. As food safety is elementary in food legislation, the assurance of food safety has a lot of implications for maximum threshold levels for micro-organisms, pesticide residues and contaminants that pose a health risk to consumers.

1.2.3

Organic versus conventional

While exports from Bolivia are thought to be organic to a very large extent, the largest share of Peruvian quinoa exports is conventional. In Peru, only about 10% of production (about 10,000 tons) is certified organic quinoa, mostly grown in the Highlands. Peru’s strong export growth since 2012 is mainly the result of sharp increases of conventional quinoa exports to countries all over the world. It is also this flow of conventional quinoa that is mostly used for processed products with quinoa as an ingredient. While until 2012 virtually all quinoa in the world was organic, in 2015 at least 50% of processed quinoa products is conventional .

1.2.4

Fairtrade

Fairtrade quinoa is a small market. It is mostly limited to quinoa grain, although there are exceptions.

Fairtrade quinoa is forecast to remain a small segment because of limited demand by consumers (and thus buyers) worldwide. However, with the market conditions of December 2015 the fairtrade price can make the difference to the farmer’s incomes and quality of their lives.

Currently, France dominates in terms of number of companies that have obtained fairtrade certification, followed by Germany and Switzerland. Virtually all (there are a few exceptions) fairtrade-licenced companies are also organic certified. Grains is the most common fairtrade certified product (and represents the lion share in terms of sales volumes worldwide), followed by added value / processed products with quinoa as an ingredient. Only in three cases companies sell fairtrade certified flakes, puffs or flour.

1.2.5

Margins

The margins in the value chain for organic and fairtrade quinoa are on average higher than for conventional quinoa, which is a result of the higher costs related to certification. The prices that importers pay for organic quinoa are between 10-20% higher than for conventional quinoa.

1.3 1.3.1

Global trends Market trends

In most countries, quinoa has found its origin in the organic sector. It then caught the attention of food specialists and was quickly adopted by food minded media. Its popularity is a direct result of increasing consumer awareness of the need for healthier diets. Quinoa has passed the status of newbie in the food sector of the focus countries, as it has left a permanent mark on the grain consumption pattern.

Consumer trends that have driven global quinoa sales can be described with the labels “authenticity and variation”, “gluten free”, “Vegetarian/Vegan/Flexitarian”, “organic”, and “quinoa as an ingredient”.

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In the next decade, conventional quinoa will gradually expand into the mainstream food retail channels all over the world, which will also be offer growth potential in the non-organic market (both in premium and mainstream food retail channels).

1.3.2

Production trends

Peru and Bolivia will continue to dominate global production of quinoa, although many other countries have started producing quinoa themselves, like Australia, the UK, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Italy. The aim of the new quinoa producers in these countries is to supply the local markets with locally grown quinoa.

1.4

Global forecast

The global forecast is based on the following assumption:  

 

Consumption per capita will reach 200 gram by 2025. In Canada the apparent consumption is almost reaching this level; in 2014 it was 189 grams.

There won’t be any production constraints, production will follow demand growth.

Production might be locally constraint by climate changes, such as droughts or heavy rain, however, for this purpose it is assumed that this is mostly temporarily and does not have substantial impact on the availability of quinoa on the world market.

Also ‘rice- nations’ like Japan and South Korea will embrace quinoa.

Current conflicts in/with countries like Syria, Libya and Russia won’t affect quinoa trade in the long term.

The analysis is based on 2014 import and production volumes, coupled with an average GDP growth forecast for the 10-year period 2015-2025.

The countries that make up the list of leading consumption countries by 2025 can be classified into three groups: 1. Countries with the premium segment as a leading market driver.

2. Countries with the mainstream segment as leading market driver.

3. Countries with the budget segment as leading market driver.

The exporters of quinoa have the best opportunities in Group 1 countries. The USA is dominating this category (in terms of absolute growth), at large distance followed by Japan and Germany.

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2

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

The Trade for Development Centre (TDC) of the Belgian development agency BTC aims at economic and social empowerment of small producer organisations by enhancing their business knowledge and improving their access to markets. Quinoa from South America is one of the products that receives attention of TDC, and the results of this market study by Globally Cool will contribute to improving the business management, market information and strategic planning capacities of producers' and export organisations in the production countries in South America.

2.1

Statistical product definition

The classification of quinoa in this document are based on the Harmonised System (HS) classification developed by the World Customs Organisation. Since 2012, global quinoa trade is reported under HS code 100850 (Quinoa "Chenopodium quinoa").

2.2 2.2.1

METHODOLOGY Primary research

Two types of interviews were conducted:  telephone interviews with buyers and traders in the world’s leading markets.  live interviews on two trade fairs (Biofach America in September 2015 and Food Ingredients Europe in December 2015).

The table below shows the total number of interviews conducted per country.

Table 1 Number of interviews per country Country Interviews Australia 3 Canada 4 France 5 Germany 8 Italy 4 Netherlands 8 UK 9 USA 37 2.2.1.1 Focus countries Based on trade statistics covering 2012-2014, the following countries were selected to focus on in the primary research process: USA, Canada and Australia, and France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the Netherlands. It should be noted that many other countries may offer interesting opportunities, which can be also concluded from the analysis in Chapter 4. Therefore, in Chapter 7 (Global forecast), not only the focus countries but also other countries will be covered.

2.2.2

Desk research

Desk research consisted of scanning online available statistics, market studies, news and company profiles. In short the main group of sources used are the following:  Statistical data (Eurostat, Trademap, customs databases)  Relevant generic and country specific internet sources  Previous market studies executed by several organisations.

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3

GLOBAL TRADE FLOWS 2012-2015

This chapter contains an analysis of global trade flows based on CN Code 1008.50.00 (Quinoa “Chenopodium Quinoa”), covering exports and imports, and trade prices.

3.1

World exports

In recent years global quinoa exports have increased enormously, as shown by Table 1 below.

Especially Peruvian exports have grown sharply, from 10.5 thousand tonnes in 2012 to 36.4 thousand tonnes in 2014. Bolivian exports increased as well, but growth was much lower than in Peru.

Ecuadorian exports also increased a lot, but the absolute volumes remained relatively low (700 tonnes in 2014).

Exports from other countries than the ‘traditional three’ also gained in volume, which is particularly the result of a growth in re-exports. The USA, for example, is a main supplier of Andean quinoa to Canada, which means USA traders re-export the quinoa to Canada. The same goes for the European countries in Table 1.

Table 2 Volume of worldwide exports of quinoa, 2012-2014, in 1,000 tons Exporters 2012 2013 2014 The Traditional Three 36.2 53.4 66.7 Peru 10.5 18.6 36.4 Bolivia 25.7 34.7 29.5 Ecuador 0.0 0.1 0.7 Other countries 6.8 10.7 17.7 USA 3.4 5.4 12.4 Canada 0.0 0.2 1.4 Germany 0.7 1.3 1.3 Netherlands 1.3 2.2 1.1 France 1.1 1.0 0.7 United Kingdom 0.1 0.1 0.3 Spain 0.0 0.1 0.2 Australia 0.0 0.0 0.2 Italy 0.1 0.2 0.1

3.2

World imports and leading importing countries

Compared to the world trade volume of rice (more than 40 million tonnes), trade volumes for quinoa are still relatively small (84.4 thousand tons). The major difference with rice is that the relatively high price for quinoa results in a selected group of main importing countries, being the most developed nations in the world. This is also shown by Figure 1 and 2 below. The main findings of Figure 1 and Figure 2, also in relation to the selection of focus countries, are:    

Largest importing country is the USA, followed by Canada.

Leading importing countries in Europe are France, Netherlands, Germany, UK, Italy and Belgium.

Australia and Brazil are the only two countries from other continents then North America and Europe that make up the list of top ten countries.

Several countries have experienced strong year-on-year growth. Countries with the highest growth in the period under review are: Mexico, Malaysia, Belgium, Chile, Japan, Italy and Denmark.

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Figure 1

Top 10 importing countries of quinoa in 2015*, in 1,000 tons

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: International Trade Centre, ITC Figure 2

Top 11-20 importing countries of quinoa in 2015*, in 1,000 tons

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: International Trade Centre, ITC Note that one country in the figures above is missing due to missing data for 2015: Israel (749 tons in 2014).

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3.3

Trade prices

Quinoa prices have been a hot topic of discussion in the past years. While prices went up considerably in 2012-2014 (from USD 3.2 in 2012, to USD 6.2 per kg in 2014), they dropped sharply in 2015 (average world import price January – August 2015 was USD 4.9). How average trade prices will develop in the next years is extremely difficult to forecast, as the situation in early 2016 is a bit peculiar: while prices are low, the demand trend is just upward in most countries in the world.

While trade prices are low in early 2016, in most cases the consumer prices have not come down yet.

This is due to the fact that importers still have to meet the price requirements of long-term contracts. As soon as contracts have to be re-negotiated, consumer prices will most probably also come down. Of course, that is largely depending on the competition in a particular country; if one supplier will start to deliver products at much lower prices, others may follow too.

Figure 3

Average import price quinoa 2012-2015, in the top 30 importing countries of quinoa in 2014, in USD/kg 12.0

10.0

10.0

8.0

8.0

6.0

6.0

4.0

4.0

2.0

2.0

0.0

0.0 USA Canada France Netherlands Australia Germany UK Italy Brazil Spain Switzerland Israel Belgium Sweden Kuwait Japan Mexico New Zealand United Arab Emirates Denmark Chile Austria Russian Federation Poland South Africa South Korea Lebanon Norway Ireland Bulgaria

12.0

av price '12-'15

World

The foregoing figure shows that the average world import price of quinoa was USD 4.9 per kilogram.

Most large import countries are importing at a price close to that average, which is logical because the (large) import volumes of these countries have a large influence on the average. Still, there are some countries that import quinoa at an above average price, such as Canada, Germany and Spain.

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4

GLOBAL TRADE CHANNELS, SEGMENTS AND REQUIREMENTS

Chapter 5 details global trade channels, market segmentation and product requirements.

4.1

Trade channels and segments

The global trade of quinoa is quite complicated. The figure below shows a simplified trade channel structure and summarizes the most common options.

Figure 4

Global trade channels of quinoa

Supply Countries

Trade

(Re-)Exporter

Consumer

Importer / processor / packer

Food retail (>80% share): Consumer @ -

Agent

-

Mainstream supermarkets Organic and fairtrade supermarkets and outlets Specialized shops

Food service (<20% share) -

Wholesalers Food service distributors

Out of home: restaurants, canteens, institutions, etc.

home

Consumer out of home

The figure should be read with the following notes in mind: 







Exporters can be located in South America but they can also be re-exporters in another country. Re-exporters in another country are mainly located in neighboring countries (e.g.

Canada and USA or Netherlands and Germany). However, this is not necessary as there are examples of processed quinoa products from Spain or France exported to the USA. In the figure the ‘importer / processor / packer’ seems to be one company. Although this can be the case (and it happens more frequently in the past few years), more often the importer sells to another company who is processing or packing the quinoa. This last scenario is especially the case for added-value products in which quinoa is as an ingredient (like bars and ready meals).

The importer can be a company specialized in organic products, or only trading conventional products, or both at the same time. Importers sell a certain (varying from very broad to quite narrow) range of comparable food ingredients or products, mostly that range is broader than just quinoa.

The food retail segment consists of several sub-channels. While mainstream supermarkets sell both organic and conventional quinoa, the organic and fair trade supermarkets and outlets basically sell organic and/or fair trade quinoa. Specialized shops mostly have a particular focus, like on healthy food (superfoods), or Andean products. These shops can sell all types of quinoa (organic, fair trade and/or conventional).

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4.2

Market segmentation

The market can be segmented in several ways:  



4.3

Food retail versus food service. Figure 4 shows that food retail represents 80% of the global market.

By certification requirements: conventional, organic, fairtrade, or dual (certified organic and fairtrade). While the organic segment has been the largest segment for a long time, since 2013 the conventional quinoa market share has grown very fast. In 2015 both segments balanced each other. Fairtrade is a small segment, representing less than 5% of the global trade volume.

By type of product: quinoa grain (representing more than 85% of the global trade volume), intermediate products (flakes, pops, quinoa flour; maximum 10% share), and processed products (e.g. muesli, granola, bars, cookies, pastas etc.). Although on consumer level it is expected that the next 10 years will see a strong growth for processed types, global trade volumes of these product types are expected to grow less fast because often processed products are developed inside and for the local market. But still, there are good opportunities for exporting processed quinoa products from Peru and Bolivia 1 to the world’s leading quinoa importing countries.

Barriers to trade

Quinoa can enter most top 30 markets duty-free, but there are several (smaller) markets that levy a tax on quinoa imports. See the figure below for more details. Note that North Korea is not included (550% tariff on imports from Peru, 800% for imports from Bolivia) and also Turkey is excluded to make the figure easier to read. Turkey levies 130% on quinoa imports from Peru and Bolivia (but despite that barrier imported 3 containers (56 tons) in 2014). Some countries levy a different tariff to imports from Peruvian/Bolivian origin (these countries are: Panama, Thailand, USA, Mexico, Costa Rica).

Figure 5

Imports tariffs levied on quinoa, >8% for imports from Peru. Excluding North Korea and Turkey (blue: Peru, red: Bolivia)

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

1

A quick comparison of exports in Trademap from Bolivia and Peru shows that especially Peru has managed to develop exports of breakfast cereals and cereal bars to other South American countries and the USA. Market research – The Quinoa Quest, global market opportunities for quinoa Trade for Development Centre / Globally Cool

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Figure 6

Imports tariffs levied on quinoa, 1-8% for imports from Peru (blue: Peru, red: Bolivia)

30% 25% 20% 15% 10%

0%

Syrian Arab Republic Benin Lao PDR Mali St. Vincent and the…

Marshall Islands Kazakhstan Mauritius Egypt Burkina Faso Armenia Monaco Suriname Barbados Fiji Montenegro Dominica Belarus Yemen, Rep. Namibia Sierra Leone Belize South Africa Niger St. Lucia Nigeria Botswana Pakistan Swaziland Grenada Tajikistan Indonesia Togo Congo, Rep. Russian Federation Cote d'Ivoire Guinea Kyrgyz Republic Ethiopia Vietnam Lesotho Lebanon Senegal Guyana Guinea-Bissau Norway Taipei, Chinese Micronesia, Fed. Sts. Morocco Macedonia Timor-Leste Afghanistan Liechtenstein Switzerland Albania Eritrea Djibouti Thailand USA Mexico Costa Rica

5%

Tips Check import tariffs: use the site of ITC’s MacMap, in this example the query is based on Peruvian exports for products under HS code 1904.

Check standards: use the site of ITC’s StandardsMap, in this example the query is based on Peruvian exports for products under HS code 1904, classified as ‘other food products’.

4.4 4.4.1

Product and additional requirements Basic specifications

The basic specifications vary considerably around the world. They vary from company to company and also from country to country, depending on the country’s legislation in place. Usually the buyer in the destination country is able to provide the right information on specifications set out in legislation. Tip: Searching the web for “quinoa specification” also gives interesting insights into basic specifications demanded by importers (or offered by exporters).

As food safety is key in food legislation, the assurance of food safety has a lot of implications for maximum threshold levels for micro-organisms, pesticide residues and contaminants that pose a health risk to consumers.

In July 2015 an international standard for quinoa was proposed by Bolivia. This standard is currently (January 2016) awaiting approval by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC).

4.4.1.1 Physical, organoleptic and chemical Basic physical, organoleptic and chemical specifications for quinoa can cover a wide range of issues; most common ones are “broken / split kernels”, “foreign material” or “purity”, “moisture”, “aroma”, “color” and “size”. The specifications of these classifications do not differ a lot across the world, however some classifications vary considerably from company to company. For example, broken / split kernels often is allowed to be below 0.5%, foreign material varies from 0.01-0.3% maximum, moisture between 8%-14%, while color can be described as e.g. “beige to light tan”, “white, brown”, “white to cream/ sand color” or “white, cream”. The size of the grain is often specified in the range Market research – The Quinoa Quest, global market opportunities for quinoa Trade for Development Centre / Globally Cool

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of 1.0 to 2.4 mm, but can very strictly limited sometimes, e.g. “>85% of 1.4 mm size”. Some companies prescribe a saponin content, which may vary from “none” to 0.03%. In addition, companies may have a target and a maximum specification prescribed, e.g. purity target 0.05% and maximum of 0.1%. Most companies also prescribe the quinoa to be not genetically modified.

4.4.1.2 Microbiological criteria The microbiological quality must be in accordance with the importing country’s regulation on microbiological properties. The Food Safety Research Information Office (FSRIO) at the USDA ARS National Agricultural Library gives an overview of Microbiological Standards and Guidelines in a selected number of countries worldwide.

4.4.1.3 Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) Countries define so-called “Maximum Residue Levels” (MRLs), which are upper legal levels of a concentration for pesticide residues in or on food or feed products. This is to ensure the lowest possible consumer exposure. The Codex Alimentarius - Maximum Residue Limits for Cereal grains sets a global standard for MRLs, but standards can be different in individual countries. It is possible to find the MRLs of individual countries on the internet (e.g. Health Canada’s database, or the EU’s pesticide database), while there are also databases that offer MRL information of many countries worldwide. One example is GlobalMRL. Subscription is free for MRL information for the USA, while information for other countries is only accessible with a paid account. Note that in the European Union, although there is a Regulation (EC) 396/2005 in place, individual member countries of the European Union may have their own MRLs set for specific pesticides.

MRLs have been topic of discussion in recent years, as between 5-10 shipments of Peruvian quinoa in 2014-2015 did not meet US regulatory requirements as set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and enforced by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Found residues were mostly Chlorpyrifos Propamocarb, and sometimes Thiabendazole. After a period of meetings and discussions between representatives from FDA with Peruvian officials from the Ministry of Agricultural and the Ministry of Health to find a solution to meeting U.S. regulatory requirements concerning agricultural chemicals, in December 2015 Minagri Minister Juan Manuel Benites informed that Senasa managed to get FDA approval for two pesticides, azoxystrobin and propiconazole. Both are used to control mildew, a fungal disease affecting quinoa plantations in Peru.

Note that the MRLs for organic quinoa and quinoa used for infant nutrition are stricter than these for conventional quinoa.

4.4.1.4 Contaminants Food contamination refers to the presence of harmful chemicals and microorganisms in food, which can cause illness (other than foodborne illness caused by microbiological contamination). It is possible to find the maximum level of contaminants of individual countries on the internet with the keywords ‘cereals’ and ‘contaminants’. The most relevant contaminants for cereals worldwide are the Mycotoxins Aflatoxin and Ochratoxin A, and several heavy metals like lead and cadmium. For the European Union, residues of contaminants must be in accordance with EC Regulation 1881/2006 and subsequent amendments.

4.4.2

Food safety certification

Food safety is a key issue in worldwide food legislation. In Europe, the General Food Law is the legislative framework regulation for food safety, while in the USA the FDA Good Manufacturing Practices (21 CFR, part 110) must be followed. Traceability (further described below), hygiene, quality assurance and control are important elements of the regulations. In controlling food-safety hazards, it is important to define critical control points (HACCP) by implementing food-management Market research – The Quinoa Quest, global market opportunities for quinoa Trade for Development Centre / Globally Cool

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principles. Another important aspect involves subjecting food products to official controls. Products that are not considered safe will be denied access to the market in question.

4.4.2.1 Traceability Food safety has been a growing concern among consumers in the last decades. Several scandals related to imported food have put food retailers under increased pressure to assure their customers of the origin and authenticity of food products. As a consequence, food companies including importers and retailers, for example in the EU, are required to have traceability systems in place. In case of quinoa, traceability refers to the ability to trace, follow and record all the parts of the supply chain. For quinoa, traceability is gradually becoming an essential aspect for food safety. But, and that is perhaps more important, it can be also used as a marketing tool. From field to fork; a small but growing number of companies is eager to trace and show to their customers that their quinoa is fully identifiable, and corresponds closely to the origin and quality which are described. This means for example that exporters should know and document from whom they buy their food ingredients, which products are used during their processes and to whom they supply their products and label the final products. Traceability is strongly related to certification, as in the incorporation of certification and standards, traceability is an important aspect of conformity.

4.4.2.2 Food management systems There are several food management systems and certifications used worldwide. As a rule of thumb, most potential buyers in the developed world accept the systems recognized by the Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI).

The following certification schemes can be relevant for quinoa producers, traders or processors: GLOBALG.A.P., Food Safety System Certification 22000 (ISO 22000), BRC Global Standard for Food Safety (British Retail Consortium) and IFS Food Standard (International Featured Standard).

4.4.3

Optional specifications

Depending on the target market (segment), optional specifications or standards may apply to the quinoa. Such specifications follow the certification requirements for that target market. Examples are: organic, fairtrade, gluten free or kosher. Organic is the most important certification for quinoa by a long way. Unfortunately, there is not a single global certification market for organic in place at the moment. For the organic market in the USA the USDA NOP certification is required, while access to the organic European Union market is only possible if the requirements of EC 834/2007 are fully met. While the product must meet several requirements, also the buyers must be accredited organic certified traders.

4.4.4

Packaging and handling

Packaging and handling is in the first place according to the customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s requirements. But in practice, there are some commonly used packaging sizes worldwide. By far the most common packaging size is 25 kg stitched bags 84x52cm, made of polypropylene, (kraft) paper with inner polyethylene or multiwall (kraft) paper. Another packaging size for larger quantities is a polypropylene super ton bag of 1000kg. The packaging material must be food grade in accordance with the relevant legislation for food contact materials.

The packages shall be legibly coded as per customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s coding procedures, which often prescribe to provide the following information, mostly in the English language: production month, date, year and production line. Case markings, if relevant, often have to identify product name, pack size, customer, stock number and date (date will be the same as date on package).

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Containers are usually fully stacked, up to the roof, to use all container space and reach a 20 tons weight per container. For this practice, it is very important to clean the container thoroughly beforehand. Another option is the use of pallets, which is safer but it makes transport per ton more expensive. If the customer requires the use of pallets, the customer will also prescribe the type of pallet and its’ security (like shrink-wrap, pallet-wrap or banding). In practice, the type of pallet depends on the warehouse requirements.

Each buyer has specific requirements for storage, but mostly it comes dome to the following:     4.4.5

Clean, dry (relative humidity sometimes prescribed as 45-65%RH or maximum of 70%), out of sunlight, away from walls.

Cool, with maximum temperatures of 15°C to 21°C and ranges between 0-21°C. Well ventilated, away from strong odors or odor-free area, or in the case of organic quinoa away from non-organic material (to prevent cross-contamination).

Properly protected against infestation by insects and other pests.

Labelling

Consumer package labelling must comply with the regulations applying to the target market in question. Usually the buyer in the destination country is able to provide the right information.

Multilingual labels are commonly used on consumer packaging (which is particularly efficient in the European Union), but the language of the destination country must be included in any case. In addition, the label should include certification logos (if applicable) and/or logos requested by the customer.

In general, consumer package labelling regulations can be quite complicated. Tip: to learn more about this, start with the European legislation and read more in EU Regulation 1169/2011 on information to consumers, and in this FoodDrinkEurope publication.

4.5

Conventional versus Organic and Fairtrade

While exports from Bolivia are thought to be organic to a very large extent, the largest share of Peruvian quinoa exports is conventional. In Peru, only about 10% of production (about 10,000 tons) is certified organic quinoa, mostly grown in the Highlands. Peru’s strong export growth since 2012 is mainly the result of sharp increases of conventional quinoa exports to countries all over the world. It is also this flow of conventional quinoa that is mostly used for processed products with quinoa as an ingredient. Of course, processed products with quinoa can also be organic (as proven by the large range of USA’s organic quinoa market leader Ancient Harvest); however due to the strong growth since 2012, in 2015 at least 50% of processed quinoa products worldwide is conventional.

Fairtrade quinoa is a small market. It is mostly limited to quinoa grain, although there are exceptions, like the fairtrade quinoa wodka. Worldwide, industry peers think that fairtrade quinoa remains a small segment because of limited demand by consumers (and thus buyers) worldwide. Also, many quinoa importers think that the fairtrade concept does not offer huge benefits and opportunities to the quinoa farmers and other members of the quinoa value chain. While this may have been true during the top years 2012-2014, this is certainly not true in the market conditions of December 2015.

While in Bolivia conventional farmers sold their quinoa for even less than USD 0.45/kilogram, certified organic sold for USD 0.80 and certified organic fairtrade for USD 1.30. In this situation, the fairtrade price can make the difference to the farmer’s incomes and quality of their lives.

A further scan of the worldwide fairtrade market shows that France dominates in terms of number of companies that have obtained fairtrade certification, followed by Germany and Switzerland. Virtually all (there are a few exceptions) fairtrade licenced companies are also organic certified. Grains is the most common fairtrade certified product (and represents the lion share in terms of sales volumes Market research – The Quinoa Quest, global market opportunities for quinoa Trade for Development Centre / Globally Cool

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worldwide), followed by added value / processed products with quinoa as an ingredient. Only in three cases companies sell fairtrade certified flakes, puffs or flour. The category of added value products covers a wide range of products, often chocolate with quinoa (particularly for the Swiss companies), but also liquors (2 French companies) and other products.

Table 3

Fairtrade licensed companies per country, worldwide, January 2016, and by type of quinoa*, including number of dual certified companies

Number of Flakes, puffs Added value Country companies Grains or flour / Processed Austria 3 1 1 1 France 11 7 0 6 Germany 7 3 2 6 Italy 2 2 0 2 Netherlands 1 1 0 0 Spain 1 1 0 1 Sweden 1 1 0 0 Switzerland 7 3 0 6 United Kingdom 2 1 0 1 United States 1 1 0 0 Total 36 36 3 23 *As far as available through the companies’ websites.

4.6

Organic 3 7 6 2 1 1 1 5 1 1 29

Grain, intermediary or processed?

Quinoa exporters that aim at entering a new country should focus on quinoa grain first. Most often importers will take care of consumer packaging themselves (mostly they outsource it to a domestic packer). After the trade partnership for grain has a good basis build on trustworthiness, the product range can be extended to intermediary products like flour and flakes. As puffs have a relatively high volume:value ratio, this type of intermediary products seems to have the least opportunities.

Stepping-up the value chain and increasing international sales of quinoa intermediary and processed products involves a lot of challenges, such as:  



Strong competition among brands limits the opportunities for new (exporter’s) brands; Order lead times, delivery times, order frequencies, order sizes; this may limit opportunities for exporting quinoa intermediary and processed products. In the case of flakes and flour, also the limited shelf life (approximately one year) is an important challenge.

Trade barriers such as higher import tariffs and strict legislative and non-legislative requirements may limit opportunities for intermediary and processed quinoa. In the European Union for example, flour, flakes and pasta import duties are €0.10, €0.17 and €0.25 per kilogram respectively.

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Tips Conventional is the easiest: Entry to the quickly growing global market for conventional quinoa is easier in terms of requirements, as compared to the organic market.

Go for organic: Although the share of organic quinoa in the global quinoa market quickly declined since 2012 (to an approximate share of 50% in 2015), it still offers the best opportunities for traditional small-scale farmer cooperations.

Fairtrade is transparency: If producers want to go fairtrade, it is not too difficult to discover the global fairtrade market. Flocert is the main global certification and verification body for fairtrade products and in its database there is an overview of all quinoa fairtrade certified companies worldwide. By the way: the companies in that list are not 100% fairtrade companies; as e.g. the Dutch company Tradin is a trader in organic produce and only deals with small quantities of fairtrade quinoa.

Note that in the USA there is a separate organisation for fair trade products: FairTrade USA. In the USA there is only one fairtrade quinoa supplier: Andean Grain.

4.7

Margins

The margins in the value chain for organic and fairtrade quinoa are on average higher than for conventional quinoa, which is a result of the higher costs related to certification. The prices that importers pay for organic quinoa are between 10-20% higher than for conventional quinoa. Prices for red and black quinoa are different than prices for white quinoa; usually they are a bit higher, as these are considered as ‘exotic’ colors and therefore they have a small price premium.

It is interesting to see rather stable prices at consumer level, while trade prices have been very volatile in the past four years. While they rose to extraordinary heights in 2013-2014,they came down in 2014-2015 and reached unexpected low levels in 2015-2016 (conventional USD 2,000 / ton, organic white USD 2,300 / ton). In this situation of low production prices and high retail prices, some members of the value chains will earn more than before. At the same, it must be realized that companies may work with long-term Ilustration: Aldi’s quinoa introduction in 2015 contracts, and do not benefit from the low prices immediately. Still, average margins in the value chain are higher in times of low producer prices compared to periods when producer prices are high.

For a few food discount retailers the coming down of prices in 2015 was the perfect moment to launch quinoa in their shelves. One example is the German food discount retail chain Aldi; they introduced white quinoa and a blend of white and black for a retail unit price of €2.99 for 400 grams (€7.50 per kilogram).

Source: Aldi Nederland

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5

GLOBAL TRENDS

Chapter 5 details global trends and also includes some figures on world production and consumption.

5.1

Market trends

The world market for quinoa has grown rapidly in the past few years. It may sound logical that Peru and Bolivia, being the traditional quinoa production countries, (also) consume most quinoa per capita (Bolivia: 5.2kg, Peru: 1.8kg, Ecuador: 332 grams). But the big question is: at which level is per capita consumption around the world? This is an interesting analysis and shows where quinoa has become most well-known and accepted, versus countries where much more market penetration should be possible.

Figure 7

Per capita quinoa consumption in top 30 importing countries, grams, 2014

200 180 160 140 120 100

80 60 40 20 USA Canada France Netherlands Australia Germany United Kingdom Italy Brazil Spain Switzerland Israel Belgium Sweden Kuwait Japan Mexico New Zealand United Arab Emirates Denmark Chile Austria Russian Federation Poland South Africa South Korea Lebanon Norway Ireland Bulgaria

0

In most countries, quinoa has found its origin in the organic sector. It then caught the attention of food specialists and was quickly adopted by food minded media. Its popularity is a direct result of increasing consumer awareness of the need for healthier diets. Quinoa has passed the status of newbie in the food sector of the focus countries, as it has left a permanent mark on the grain consumption pattern.

5.1.1

Authenticity and variation

Many consumers in the world’s leading quinoa markets are interested in trying new products, especially when they can be labelled ‘authentic’. The story behind quinoa adds interest to the product, as it can be depicted as an ancient grain from the native Andean region. Also see the illustrations on the next page.

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Ilustration: authentic claims on quinoa packaging

Ilustration: authentic claims on quinoa packaging

Source: Ancient Harvest

Source: Chatham Village

Ilustration: variation in the use of quinoa. Modern packaging.

Source: Hi I'm Skinny

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5.1.2

Gluten free

There is an increasing demand for gluten free products in many developed countries all over the world. Quinoa has good qualities for people with a gluten intolerances and it is fairly easy to use as an ingredient for a variety of added value products. Although quinoa has some disadvantages (the flour is relatively expensive and its baking characteristics limit its use to a maximum of about 35% of ingredients for any product) and it has competition from other grains like rice, potato and maize starch (low priced alternatives), millet and buckwheat (medium-priced alternatives) and amaranth and teff (also relatively expensive), quinoa is expected to become increasingly important for the gluten free market. Worldwide, there are a few gluten free brands that have developed a range of products with quinoa, e.g. Orgran from Australia. These brands have been among the frontrunners using quinoa as an ingredient and developing more added-value products with quinoa as an ingredient.

5.1.3

Ilustration: gluten free pizza

Source: Globally Cool

Ilustration: Vegetarian quinoa application

Vegetarian/Vegan/Flexitarian

There is an increasing number of consumers â&#x20AC;&#x201C; particularly in the developed countries â&#x20AC;&#x201C; that eat less or no meat (anymore).

Quinoa has high protein levels, making it very interesting for vegetarians, vegans or flexitarians. The market for meat substitutes is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.

Source: GoGo Quinoa

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5.1.4

Organic

The sale of quinoa in most Western countries started in the organic market and until 2013 organic quinoa represented more than 80-90% of many of the largest markets, such as the USA, France or Germany. Since 2013 the conventional quinoa exported from Peru has found its’ inroads into the world’s leading markets which resulted in a quickly growing market share of conventional quinoa. The large influx of conventional quinoa into the world’s largest (previously) organic quinoa markets does not seem to have led to a reduction of organic quinoa sales. Contrary: the introduction of conventional quinoa has supported the sales of organic quinoa too.

In the next decade, organic quinoa will gradually expand into the mainstream food retail channels all over the world, which will also drive the further consumer demand for non-organic quinoa (both in premium and mainstream food retail channels).

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Ilustration: organic label on quinoa product

Source: Path of Life

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5.1.5

Quinoa as an ingredient

Quinoa is an interesting ingredient for new product development. It can be used in grain, flour or bread mixes, such as rice and quinoa, breakfast cereals, in pastas, ready-made meals, snacks and bakery products. Quinoa as an ingredient will play an important role in the future growth of quinoa.

Illustrations: examples of quinoa as an ingredient

Source: http://www.godairyfree.org Source: Fair Spirits

Source: http://www.godairyfree.org

Source: Globally Cool

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5.2 5.2.1

Production trends Bolivia and Peru dominate supply

Bolivia and Peru are dominating global quinoa supply, which can be also seen from the figure below.

Figure 8

Share of global quinoa production, by country (estimated volumes 2014)

Peru Bolivia USA France Ecuador United Kingdom Netherlands Spain

In Peru and Bolivia, the local processors of quinoa typically purchase from a network of small producers and process it by optical cleaning (removing stones etc.), removing the tough outer skins of the quinoa grain, washing, and drying it for export. Particularly in Bolivia the domestic per capita consumption of quinoa has risen in recent years, as a result it is much higher than in Peru (5.2kg versus 1.8 kg). Still, in both countries a considerable volume of quinoa is consumed, mostly at home but also increasingly out of home. In addition, especially in Bolivia in recent years quinoa demand has benefited from the inclusion in public procurement programmes, a trend which is not (yet) visible in Peru.

Bolivian companies (supported by the government) have also been looking at opportunities for adding more value to the quinoa. This has been quite successful so far, as in 2015 between 10-15% is thought to be value-added products (e.g. gluten free brownies, granola bars, vegetarian hamburgers). This development should be taken into consideration when looking at the domestic per capita consumption in Bolivia. The quinoa which is processed into products will not be recognized as quinoa (grain) in the trade statistics anymore; instead, it is becoming part of the domestic consumption (which is calculated as production+imports-exports). Even if the volume of added-value production was known, it remains difficult to estimate the share of production used for added-value production, as the added-value products vary a lot in terms of quinoa content (varying from 1-100%).

5.2.2

Production has been launched in several other countries

Many Western countries have started producing quinoa themselves, like Australia, the UK, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Italy. Some countries also opened processing plants. For example Australia, where a second quinoa processing plant was opened in November 2015. The aim of the new quinoa producers is to supply the local markets with locally grown quinoa. Like the producers from Bolivia and Peru, these producers have been also challenged by the low market price in 2015/2016. Stock levels increased considerably in 2015, as producers were reluctant to sell their quinoa at such low price levels.

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6

GLOBAL FORECAST

Based on an analysis of statistical data and a large number of interviews (see Methodology), the global consumption of quinoa in the world is forecasted for the period 2015-2025. It is based on the following assumptions:    

Consumption per capita will reach 200 gram by 2025. In Canada the apparent consumption is almost reaching this level; in 2014 it was 189 grams.

There won’t be any production constraints, production will follow demand growth.

Also ‘rice-nations’ like Japan and South Korea will embrace quinoa.

Current conflicts in/with countries like Syria, Libya and Russia won’t affect quinoa trade in the long term.

The analysis is based on 2014 import and production volumes, coupled with an average GDP growth forecast for the 10-year period 2015-2025. The volumes calculated for 2025 represent the potential absolute (annual) growth volumes. For example: the USA imported 26 thousand tons in 2014. In 2025 the USA will import an additional annual volume of 50 thousand tons. Thus in total, the USA is forecast to import 76 thousand tons per year by 2025.

6.1

Three groups

The countries that make up the list of leading consumption countries by 2025 can be classified into three groups: 1. Countries with the premium segment as a leading market driver. a. In these countries there is a relatively high demand for exclusive and organic quinoa, however, with the forecast consumption growth to a level of 200 grams / capita, also volumes in the mainstream segment and budget segment will pick up and in the end contribute to up to 75% of total volume growth. b. The countries in this group are the most developed in the world; with the average per capita consumption of 200 grams they consume less than 6 kilograms / million US Dollar Gross Domestic Product. c. The average import price quinoa in 2014 for this group of countries was USD 7.2 per kilogram. This reflects the relatively large share of certified organic and organic+fairtrade (dual) certified market segments in these countries (on average). It is important to realise that not all countries in this group (Group 1) perfectly match with this description, as e.g. in Italy the organic quinoa market share is (and will remain) relatively small. But, on the other hand, exporters of organic and fairtrade quinoa have by far the best opportunities in this group of countries.

2. Countries with the mainstream segment as leading market driver. a. With the forecast consumption growth to a level of 200 grams / capita, also volumes in the premium segment and budget segment will pick up and in the end contribute to up to 40% of volume growth. b. The countries in this group are highly developed; with the average per capita consumption of 200 grams they consume between 6-15 kilograms / million US Dollar Gross Domestic Product. c. The average import price quinoa in 2014 for this group of countries was USD 5.4 per kilogram.

3. Countries with the budget segment as leading market driver. a. With the forecast consumption growth to a level of 200 grams / capita, also volumes in the premium and mainstream segment will pick up and in the end contribute to up to 25% of volume growth.

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b. This group mainly comprises middle-income countries and with the average per capita consumption of 200 grams they consume between 15-50 kilograms / million US Dollar Gross Domestic Product. c. The average import price quinoa in 2014 for this group of countries was USD 3.7 per kilogram.

6.2

Group 1 – Premium segment driven markets

The USA is dominating this category (in terms of absolute growth), at large distance followed by Japan and Germany. The reference country Canada is also in this group, but because it has almost reached the reference level of 200 grams consumption per capita, its position is relatively low.

Note that there are two countries in this group that currently apply an import tariff to quinoa. These countries are marked by an orange colour in the figures below (orange means a tariff in the range of 4-10%). If these tariffs will not change in the next decade, this can have (negative) influence on the absolute growth. The tariffs for these two countries are as follows: Norway (5%), Switzerland (2%).

6.2.1

Absolute growth 2015-2025

Figure 9

Nations with predominance of premium segment – by absolute growth in 2015-2025 of more than 1,700 tons.

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 USA

Figure 10

Japan Germany

Italy

South Korea

United Kingdom

Spain

Saudi Arabia

France Australia

Nations with predominance of premium segment – by absolute growth in 2015-2025 of 200-1,700 tons

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

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6.2.2

Relative growth 2015-2025

If these countries are analysed from a relative growth perspective, the following groups can be identified (the countries that apply an import tariff are in italic): 





6.2.3

White spots: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is small and these countries are not in the top 40 importers, trade channels have to be developed. o One country (in the range of more than 200 tons absolute growth volume) : Finland.

High penetration potential: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is medium-sized and these countries are in the top 40 importers, trade channels are in development. o In range of relative growth: Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Bahrain, Singapore, Hong Kong, Norway, Austria, Ireland.

Medium penetration potential: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is large and these countries are in the top 20 importers; trade channels are established with some room for development. o In range of relative growth: Japan, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Arab Emirates, Denmark, United Kingdom Sweden, Belgium, USA, New Zealand, Israel, Switzerland, Kuwait, Australia, France, Netherlands, Canada.

Preliminary data for 2015

Based on import data for the first eight months of 2015, there are several countries that have outperformed their predicted average import growth in the period 2015-2025. These countries are shown in the table below, sorted by group and outperformance rate.

Table 4

Outperformance rate 2015 of premium segment markets Outperformance rate 2015 Extreme (+100% difference)

Strong (20-100% difference)

Low (-20-+20% difference)

White spots

Negative (more than -20% difference)

Unknown

Finland

High penetration potential

Austria

Ireland

South Korea

Bahrain, Norway, Singapore

Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia

Medium penetration potential

Denmark

Belgium, Japan, Sweden, Italy

Netherlands, UK, France, New Zealand, Germany, Canada, USA, Australia

Switzerland, Spain, Kuwait

United Arab Emirates, Israel

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6.3

Group 2 – Mainstream segment driven markets

Russia and Mexico dominate this category, at large distance followed by Turkey, Poland and Malaysia. The first South American country appears in this list, at position 8: Chile. Other Latin American countries are Costa Rica, Panama, Uruguay and Trinidad and Tobago.

Note that there are several countries in this group that currently apply an import tariff to quinoa.

These countries are marked by a red or orange colour in the figures below (red means more than 10%; orange means 4-10%). If these tariffs will not change in the next decade, this can have (negative) influence on the absolute growth. The tariffs for these countries are as follows: Russian Federation (30%), Turkey (130%), Kazakhstan (5%), Panama (10% for imports from Peru, 7% for imports from Bolivia), Gabon (30%) and Mauritius (5%).

6.3.1

Absolute growth 2015-2025

Figure 11

Nations with predominance of mainstream segment – by absolute growth in 2015-2025 of more than 2,500 tons

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Russian Federation

Mexico

Turkey

Poland

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Malaysia

Romania Kazakhstan

Chile

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Figure 12

Nations with predominance of mainstream segment – by absolute growth in 2015-2025 of 200-2,500 tons

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

6.3.2

Relative growth 2015-2025

If these countries are analysed from a relative growth perspective, the following groups can be identified (the countries that apply an import tariff are in italic): 





White spots: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is small and these countries are not in the top 40 importers, trade channels have to be developed. o In range of relative growth : Kazakhstan, Hungary, Romania, Slovak Republic, Mauritius, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Greece, Estonia, Croatia, Panama, Costa Rica, Slovenia, Uruguay, Libya, Turkmenistan, Oman, Gabon.

High penetration potential: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is medium-sized and these countries are in the top 40 importers, trade channels are in development. o In range of relative growth: Turkey, Russian Federation, Malaysia, Poland, Portugal, Chile, Trinidad and Tobago Medium penetration potential: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is large and these countries are in the top 20 importers; trade channels are established with some room for development. o One country with a forecast growth volume of more than 200 tons: Mexico.

Note that in this group 2 there are some countries that seem to offer above-average opportunities in the premium segment: Portugal, Malaysia and Poland. This assumption is based on an above-average import price in these countries in 2014.

6.3.3

Preliminary data for 2015

Based on import data for the first eight months of 2015, there are several countries that have outperformed their predicted average import growth in the period 2015-2025. These countries are shown in the next table, sorted by group and outperformance rate.

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Table 5

Outperformance rate 2015 of mainstream segment markets Outperformance rate 2015 Extreme (+100% difference)

Strong (20-100% difference)

Low (-20-+20% difference)

Negative (more than -20% difference)

Unknown

White spots

Slovak Republic, Czech Republic, Hungary

Uruguay, Romania, Costa Rica

Lithuania,

Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia, Estonia, Russia, Greece

Gabon, Libya, Oman, Turkmenistan, Mauritius, Panama, Kazakhstan

High penetration potential

Malaysia

Portugal, Turkey

Chile, Poland

Medium penetration potential

Trinidad and Tobago

Mexico

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6.4

Group 3 – Budget segment driven markets

China dominates this category, at huge distance followed by Indonesia. Several Latin American countries appear in this list: Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and Venezuela in Figure 13, while Guatamala, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Paraguay, El Salvador and Jamaica show up in Figure 14.

Note that there are many countries in this group that currently apply an import tariff to quinoa.

These countries are marked by a red or orange colour in the figures below (red means more than 10%; orange means 4-10%; yellow means 1-4%). If these tariffs will not change in the next decade, this can have (negative) influence on the absolute growth. The tariffs for these countries are as follows: Indonesia (5%), Nigeria (5%), Philippines (7%), Egypt (5%), Iran (10%), Thailand (1% for imports from Peru, 27% for imports from Bolivia) , South Africa (5%), Algeria (18%), Morocco (3%), Sri Lanka (25%), Tunisia (36%), Dominican Republic (8%), Azerbaijan (15%), Belarus (5%), Serbia (10%), Jordan (10%), Congo (5%), Lebanon (5%), Armenia (5%), Mongolia (10%), Albania (2%), Namibia (5%), and Macedonia (3%).

6.4.1

Absolute growth 2015-2025

Figure 13

Nations with predominance of budget segment – by absolute growth in 2015-2025 of more than 6,000 tons

300,000 250,000

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

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Figure 14

Nations with predominance of budget segment – by absolute growth in 2015-2025 of 200-6,000 tons

6.4.2

Fiji

Swaziland

Macedonia

Botswana

Namibia

Jamaica

Albania

Mongolia

Armenia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Lebanon

West Bank and Gaza

Georgia

Congo, Rep.

El Salvador

Jordan

Paraguay

Bulgaria

Serbia

Belarus

Azerbaijan

Dominican Republic

Tunisia

Guatemala

Sri Lanka

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

Relative growth 2015-2025

If these countries are analysed from a relative growth perspective, the following groups can be identified (the countries that apply an import tariff are in italic): 







Green fields: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is virtually zero, trade channels have to be developed from scratch. o Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines, Egypt, Iran, Algeria, Iraq, Morocco, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, Guatemala, Tunisia, Paraguay, Congo, Georgia West Bank and Gaza, Armenia, Albania, Jamaica, Namibia, Botswana, Swaziland, Fiji.

White spots: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is small and these countries are not in the top 40 importers, trade channels have to be developed. o In range of relative growth : China, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Thailand, Bosnia and Herzegovina, El Salvador, Mongolia, Serbia, Macedonia, Dominican Republic, Colombia, Jordan, Ecuador High penetration potential: o meaning that import volume in 2014 is medium-sized and these countries are in the top 40 importers, trade channels are in development. o In range of relative growth: Argentina, South Africa, Bulgaria, Lebanon.

Medium penetration potential: only Brazil. Meaning that import volume in 2014 is large and these countries are in the top 20 importers; trade channels are established with some room for development.

Note that in this group 2 there are some countries that seem to offer above-average opportunities in the premium segment: Colombia, Macedonia and Serbia in the category white spots, South Africa, Bulgaria and Lebanon in the category high penetration potential, and Brazil in the category medium penetration potential. This assumption is based on an above-average import price in these countries in 2014.

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6.4.3

Preliminary data for 2015

Based on import data for the first eight months of 2015, there are several countries that have outperformed their predicted average import growth in the period 2015-2025. These countries are shown in the next table, sorted by group and outperformance rate.

Table 6

Outperformance rate 2015 of budget segment markets Outperformance rate 2015 Extreme (+100% difference)

Greenfield

White spots

Strong (20-100% difference)

Low (-20-+20% difference)

Negative (more than -20% difference)

Paraguay

Colombia, Thailand, El Salvador

Unknown

All other countries in this group China, Serbia

All other countries in this group

High penetration potential

Bulgaria, Argentina, South Africa

Lebanon

Medium penetration potential

Brazil

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6.5

Best opportunities for market entry in Group 1 countries

The exporters of quinoa have the best opportunities in Group 1 countries. This group of countries can be described based on the variables mentioned in the table below.

Table 7

Market characteristics and entry opportunities in Group 1, 2 and 3 Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

1 - Familiarity with quinoa

Medium to high

Low to developing

Low

2 - Presence of organic market and channels

Mostly established but also in development

Absent to premature phase

Absent

3 - Opportunities in organic market

Limited to good

Hardly available

Not available

4 - Established fairtrade market

Yes

No

No

5 - Opportunities in fairtrade market

Limited

Limited

Absent

6 - Readiness and opportunities for intermediate and processed quinoa

High

Limited

Absent

7 - Opportunities in gluten free, vegan, health etc.

High

Limited

Absent

1 - Familiarity with quinoa: In these countries, because of previous marketing efforts of the (basically organic) quinoa brands, consumers already know what quinoa is, how it tastes and how it can be applied.

2 - Presence of organic market and channels: As until a few years ago the quinoa sold in these countries was mostly organic, the organic market segment still has a good share in these countries, and there are several 100% organic importers operating in these countries.

3 - Opportunities in organic market: there are basically two opportunities to sell organic quinoa in these countries.

The first one: selling organic quinoa to 100% organic importers that supply the 100% organic retail channels. Several of the countries in group 1 are home to organic food retail chains, like the USA (e.g.

Wholefoods ), France (e.g. Biocoop) and Germany (e.g. Alnatura); these retailers buy their products from 100% organic importers.

The second one: selling organic quinoa to importers that both supply conventional and organic quinoa. In most of the Group 1 countries, since a few years, the mainstream food retailers sell both organic and conventional quinoa. The mainstream food retailers buy their organic quinoa not necessarily from organic importers, as they prefer to work with large importers that they already know.

4 and 5 - Established fairtrade market and opportunities: Until a few years ago the quinoa sold in these countries was mostly organic and fairtrade also had a 10% share on average. However, opportunities in these ‘established’ fairtrade quinoa markets are limited as fairtrade importers aim to build long-term relationships with their suppliers in order to sustain livelihoods of producers and communities. Still, there may be opportunities with fairtrade importers that don’t have quinoa in their range, or with importers that want to start to sell a fairtrade range of products, including quinoa.

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6 - Readiness and opportunities for intermediate and processed quinoa. Because consumers are quite familiar with quinoa grain, these countries offer the best opportunities for intermediate and processed quinoa.

7 - Opportunities in gluten free, vegan, health etc. As the countries in this group are the most developed in the world, consumers are able and willing to spend more on dietary food items and food which is considered as healthy. As quinoa fits in these trends, these countries offer relatively good opportunities for quinoa applied in gluten free, vegan or healthy food products.

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7

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The global quinoa market can easily double in 10 years time. Regardless of the question where that surplus in production will come from, it will contain conventional quinoa from large-scale and highly efficient production. Since 2014, such production has taken off in Peru, but also in other countries like Australia, USA, Canada and some European countries where the production of quinoa is growing slowly but steadily.

The supply of quinoa with a Peruvian (or Bolivian) origin and produced by the smallholders in the Highlands (“heirloom quinoa”) is expected to remain relatively stable. The largest market segment will not offer the best opportunities: competition in the mainstream segment will be strong because of an expected abundant supply from large-scale and efficiently produced quinoa. Therefore, the smallholder cooperatives must find niches for their original authentic quinoa produced with their traditional farming techniques. Only then, the farmers can receive the US$2.60 that the Fairtrade Foundation says is necessary to maintain a decent standard of living.

Their hope should be on quinoa market segments with the following characteristics:   

Pure quinoa grain, white, black, red and tricolor.

Based on sustainable certifications: organic and fairtrade.

Coupled with geographic indicator marketing. E.g. by applying for the Mountain Partnership Label.

To build a sustainable operation, the selection of buyers is also very important. If they are not fairtrade certified, then make sure that they also see the benefits of long term relationships and paying fair prices, securing the traditional Highland quinoa production for the next generations.

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8

ATTACHMENTS

8.1

Quinoa in a nutshell – Focus countries

Quinoa has quickly gained in popularity in the focus countries in the past five years. Each of the focus countries is shortly described in terms of trade statistics and a bird’s eye view of the local market.

8.1.1

Australia

Quinoa is very new to the Australian kitchen. In five years, the product evolved from something that no one has heard about into a word that glides off the tongue in fashionable cafes from Sydney to Darwin and back.

Unlike in many countries around the worlds, food has not always been central to the Australian way of life. Food has long been perfunctory, a necessity rather than something to enjoy. Immigration and travelling have broadened the horizons of Australian families and changed the way they look at food.

New foods from for example Vietnam, Italy and India have entered the Australian kitchens.

Food has also become a status symbol. Australians like to have friends over for dinner and surprise them with culinary exotica like quinoa. Also, Australians are a remarkable tolerant and absorbent nation that likes to pick the best from all the cultural influences that comes their way, including quinoa.

Australians are also increasingly interested in healthy living. Quinoa fits very well into the trend of lactose-free, gluten free and vegan eating. Quinoa has become popular as a healthy gluten free alternative to traditional grains.

Since this year, quinoa is included in Australia’s Healthy Eating Pyramid, which is another indication that quinoa is more than a trend, but that it is in fact on its way to becoming a regular on Australia’s dinner plates.

8.1.2

Canada

The star of quinoa in Canada is still rising. It’s popularity exploded in the last several years, particularly among affluent, health-conscious Canadians. It is currently making its way from niche to mainstream.

In December 2015, McDonalds announced the opening of McCafes in Canada that sell quinoa products, amongst other healthy food choices, like kale and edamame.

In Canada, quinoa is rising above the food trends that come and go every few years. This is mainly because Canadians recognize the powerful health benefits quinoa offers. It tastes great, it is high in protein, low in calories, and it is part of another major food trend: gluten free eating.

Canadian farmers have been experimenting with growing quinoa for more than 22 years, but the recent explosive increase in the demand for quinoa, resulted in the opening of a quinoa processing plant in 2014. Which underlines that Canadians feel quinoa is in their menus to stay.

8.1.3

France

France is a key market for quinoa. The quinoa trend in France started remarkably earlier than in most other western countries. France has long been the biggest quinoa market in Europe, accounting for almost half of the European consumption from 2005 to 2007.

The organic label is very important in the French market. France is historically a typical organic market with Markal the number one importer of organic quinoa (from Bolivia). It is the second most important organic market in Europe, after Germany.

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Important trends and segments that have supported market growth are: gluten free, vegetarian, exotic, and fair trade. White quinoa is the most consumed quinoa, imported from both Bolivia and Peru. The market for quinoa in France is not expected to grow much in the next couple of years, but it is expected to remain stable as the French have really adopted quinoa as a healthy and tasty food.

8.1.4

Italy

Italians are very proud of their national cuisine. They are generally less receptive to new foods than many other western countries. They are quite traditional in their way of cooking, but they are increasingly opening up towards new food trends. So a little later than some other European countries, the Italians have embraced quinoa. Sales for quinoa were up by almost 200% from 2014 to 2015.

The success of quinoa in Italy is mainly due to the health aspects of the product. Particularly the gluten free aspect of quinoa is very important for the Italian market.

There are large differences in the sales of quinoa in Italy. Almost one-third is sold in the North West of Italy. The sales volume in Middle-Italy follows with less than 30%, closely followed by the North East of Italy with one quarter. Southern Italy, the most conservative part of the country, follows at a large distance with only 16% of the quinoa sales.

8.1.5

Germany

Germany is the largest market for organic products in Europe. When it comes to quinoa, the Germans are late adapters, but once the word was out, the quinoa sales grew quickly. In 2014, Germany was the third largest quinoa importing country in Europe, behind France and the Netherlands.

A healthy and sustainable way of life is a trend in Germany. Around 40% of German citizens find these two things important. Quinoa fits well into this trend, even though Germans are increasingly concerned with the negative impact the quinoa boom might have on the people of the Andes region who have been eating quinoa for generations.

Quinoa was first a food consumed mainly by young urban people with a great interest in healthy eating and by families that choose to eat (predominantly) organic. Quinoa has since then made its way to the larger public, but it is not expected to be common food in all German households. In August 2015, McDonalds Germany introduced the Veggie Clubhouse burger, made with quinoa.

8.1.6

Netherlands

The food landscape in the Netherlands is shaped by an increased importance of niche markets. The market for specialty products, like quinoa, is rapidly growing and this is predicted to remain on of the most important food trends in the near future.

The first Dutch consumers of quinoa were often actively looking for gluten free and/or organic products. The market for gluten free products is rising for two reasons; celiac disease is diagnosed more often and gluten free is gradually seen as a general characteristic of healthy food supply.

Until 2013 virtually all quinoa sold in the Netherlands was organic, but this changed since then. It is increasingly used in produced food, like ready to eat meals, bread, crackers and breakfast cereals.

And also baby and toddler food.

Despite its popular characteristics, quinoa sales have dropped 40% in 2014, for the main reason that the prices have increased too quickly. Developing the Dutch market for quinoa takes time but the market is again growing annually (gluten free as well as outside the gluten free market segment).

Quinoa is expected to remain a regular at the Dutch dinner table.

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8.1.7

UK

Ancient grains are gaining popularity in the UK. Ancient grains are grains that have remained unchanged for millennia. And although the trend talks about grains, also seeds like quinoa and amaranth are part of this trend. Their increasing popularity is almost entirely due to emerging health trends.

But even though UK consumers are looking to eat differently, they are still very price conscious and thus might turn to oats and barley before they buy quinoa. The final drop in price, due to rise in production was therefore very much welcomed by UK consumers.

Opportunities lie in the field of value added products and supplying recipes with quinoa through popular channels, such as the Great British Bake Off. 8.1.8

USA

The USA was one of the first countries to adopt quinoa as a regular food in supermarkets and restaurants. Even McDonalds is now serving quinoa in burgers and salads. Quinoa is served on 2% of the menus in the USA (excluding McDonalds).

To the USA, quinoa is a perfect collision of two trends: gluten free and superfood. Gluten free eating is very popular and gluten free menu items in the USA increased by 33% from January to June 2015.

In the USA, quinoa is known as a superfood and is adopted by health conscious consumers, many of which are vegetarian or vegan.

The large population of Americans with South American roots is also in favour of the quinoa trend as people in this group are also interested in eating quinoa, because of their heritage.

In the USA, 84% of quinoa menu items feature a vegetable, most commonly tomatoes (28%), onions (24%) and peppers (23%). Quinoa accompanies protein in 61% of instances, and that protein is most often seafood (26%). Beans are also a popular protein option and appear 22% of the time.

In the USA, quinoa is nearly equally served sweet or savoury. In 2015, 46% of quinoa dishes include fruit, of which citrus (21%) is the most popular, but savoury sauces (like dressing, salsa or aioli) are present in 53% of all quinoa dishes in the USA. Quinoa is expected to remain present in the diets of Americans. Especially now the prices are dropping and consumers and restaurants are able to put it back on their menus. It is, however, expected to continue to be a niche market and not becoming a food staple like rice.

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8.2 8.2.1

Google search trends Australia

Quinoa search trends

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Biological and organic search trends

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8.2.2

Canada

Quinoa search trends

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Biologique, biological and organic search trends

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8.2.3

France

Quinoa search trends

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Biologique and organique search trends

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8.2.4

Italy

Quinoa search trends

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Biologico and organico search terms

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8.2.5

Germany

Quinoa search trends

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Biologisch search term

8.2.6

Netherlands

Quinoa search trends

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Biologisch search terms

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8.2.7

UK

Quinoa search trends

Biological and organic search terms

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8.2.8

USA

Quinoa search trends

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Biological and organic search terms

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