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R EE E K L Y P O R T
27 JUNE – 01 JULY 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee dragged on Friday over concerns of Brexit. Sterling plunges to 31-year low, biggest ever fall, as UK votes for Brexit. German Ifo Confidence Improved Even as Brexit Threat Loomed. German Producer prices in May 2016: –2.7% on May 2015. CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
67.1725
67.1725
Indian Rupee crashed nearly 87 paise to 68.12 against the US dollar minutes after opening of trade on Friday. Markets worldwide were jolted following UK's referendum throwing up a surprise vote in favor of exit. The dollar soared against all currencies with the UK pound falling to a 31-year low of 1.34 against the pound following the Brexit vote. UK's exit has triggered fears that trade barriers will rise elsewhere. Domestic equity markets too plunged and reported biggest intraday fall in ten months. The selloff in domestic stock markets was led by companies that have substantial exposure to the UK.
KEY RATES As on 24/06/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
68.0144
REPO RATE
6.50%
1.23%
EURINR
75.6975
75.6975
-0.50%
REVERSE REPO
6.00%
GBPINR
95.9575
95.9575
-2.68%
CRR
4%
JPYINR
64.4200
64.4200
3.12%
INFLATION
0.79%
USDINR
USDINR last week traded in sideways manner in most part of the week but gained on Friday over strength in dollar on back of Britain exit from EU. Now, it may be on higher side till it maintains above the resistance of 67.9000 and 68.3000 will act as near term resistance while major support is seen near 67.5000.
EURINR
EURINR last week traded higher above the resistance mark of 76.3500 for most part of the week but plunged on Friday due to Brexit and closed the week in red. On daily charts, it closed below the trend line coming from deeper supports and if it sustains in the range of 75.7000-76.0000, then some up move can be seen while 74.8000-74.3000 is seen as support range.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
67.6000
67.2000
66.8000
68.3000
68.6000
69.0000
EURINR
74.8000
74.3000
73.7000
76.0000
76.8000
77.6000
GBPINR
92.5000
91.7000
90.5000
94.0000
95.1000
96.0000
JPYINR
65.5000
64.9000
64.0000
67.0000
67.9000
69.0000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES Sterling off 1985 lows after Britain votes to exit EU. US Existing-Home Sales Grow 1.8 Percent in May; Highest Pace in Over Nine Years. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 259,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week. DATE
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
28-JUNE-16
06:00 PM
US
Final GDP q/q
-
0.8%
28-JUNE-16
7:30 PM
US
CB Consumer Confidence
-
92.6
US
Unemployment Claims
-
-
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
-
51.3
6:00 30-JUNE-16 PM 7:30 01-JULY-16 PM
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