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R EE E K L Y P O R T
04 JULY – 08 JULY 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee gains 20 paise to end at 1-1/2 week high against dollar. Japan's May retail sales fall more than expected on gloomy recovery outlook. China's yuan slips, poised for 1 pct monthly fall as c.bank stands aside. Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 2.3%. CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
67.9800
67.6050
Indian Rupee washed off the Brexit concerns so seen in the previous week rather extended the gains for three consecutive sessions and the currency reached to 1-1/2 week high on continuous demand of dollar by Banks and exporters over strong equity markets. The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.7 in June from May's 50.7, its sixth month above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction after it fell below that level in December for the first time in more than two years. Successive gains in domestic markets too supported the dollar selling on hopes of more foreign fund inflows.
KEY RATES As on 01/07/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
67.4410
REPO RATE
6.50%
-0.55%
EURINR
75.2675
75.1975
-0.09%
REVERSE REPO
6.00%
GBPINR
93.1775
90.0200
-3.38%
CRR
4%
JPYINR
66.4275
65.8600
-0.85%
INFLATION
0.79%
USDINR
USDINR last week washed off the gains so made in the previous week and gained successively during the entire week to close on lower side. If it continues to fall then 100 day EMA i.e. 67.2000 is seen as next major support whereas any closing above the immediate resistance of 68.0000 can mark the way for bulls.
EURINR
EURINR last week remained in a particular range after the major breakdown so seen in the previous week due to Brexit and finally settle on a flat note with negative bias. Any closing below 74.7000 can result in selling pressure for the counter whereas 75.6000-76.0000 may act as immediate resistance range.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
67.3000
67.0000
66.6000
68.0000
68.3000
68.7000
EURINR
74.7000
74.3000
73.7000
75.6000
76.0000
76.4000
GBPINR
89.6000
89.2000
88.8000
90.7000
91.6000
92.3000
JPYINR
65.5000
64.9000
64.0000
66.4000
67.2000
68.0000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES UK Manufacturing PMI at five-month high in June. US Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2016. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 268,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week.
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
06-JULY-16
07:30 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
53.5
52.9
06-JULY-16
11:30 PM
US
FOMC Meeting Minutes
-
-
US
Unemployment Claims
272k
268k
US
Unemployment Rate
4.8%
4.7%
DATE
TIME
6:00 07-JULY-16 PM 6:00 08-JULY-16 PM
DISCLAIMER
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