Tauranga Business Case for Jetstar – Supporting Document

Page 1

SUPPORTING DOCUMENT FROM WELLINGTON AIRPORT

for


Tauranga-Wellington Domestic Opportunity


Wellington’s International Connectivity/Market is Growing AKL, WLG, CHC Intl Pax Growth

160%

Index Year Oct-04=100%

140%

WLG is the fastest growing of NZ’s main international airports

Current FY International pax +16% and could pass 900k by year-end

Qantas Group expanding strongly in market • QF/EK partnership opened up WLG to Asia/Europe • New JQ services to OOL/MEL • New FJ service to NAN

120%

100%

80%

AKL

CHC

Jan-16

Aug-15

Mar-15

Oct-14

May-14

Dec-13

Jul-13

Feb-13

Sep-12

Apr-12

Nov-11

Jun-11

Jan-11

Aug-10

Mar-10

Oct-09

May-09

Dec-08

Jul-08

Feb-08

Sep-07

Apr-07

Nov-06

Jun-06

Jan-06

Aug-05

Mar-05

Oct-04

60%

WLG

Source: Stats NZ, WIAL Data

Linking QF Group’s expanding offering with a JQ’s regional service via an integrated terminal makes sense


The Wellington Network Vision Current OOL

Future OOL AKL

AKL HLZ

SYD

SYD

NPL

NAN MEL

MEL

MEL CHC

NPE NAN

NSN

MEL

ROT/TRG

CHC ZQN DUD IVC

Jetstar – A320 Jetstar – Q300 Qantas Fiji Page 4


Wellington provides a strong operating position

Q300 Block Times

Via WLG with connecting Jet service

AKL WLG CHC ZQN DUD

AKL CHC ZQN DUD

HLZ

0:26

1:01

1:41

2:15

2:18

HLZ

2:06

2:36

2:36

TRG

0:35

1:11

1:47

2:23

2:25

TRG

2:16

2:46

2:46

ROT

0:35

1:04

1:40

2:18

2:20

ROT

2:09

2:39

2:39

NPE

0:58

0:49

1:30

2:08

2:07

NPE

1:54

2:24

2:24

NPL

0:42

0:48

1:20

1:55

1:58

NPL

1:53

2:23

2:23

NSN

1:14

0:30

0:45

1:22

1:24

NSN

1:50

1:35

2:05

2:05

IVC

2:45

1:51

1:12

0:32

0:32

IVC

3:11

Assumes Min Connect Time of 30 minutes

WLG provides sector lengths that are long enough to support a strong aviation market, but short enough to maximise frequency with a small fleet – North-South Island connecting times via Jets is comparable with direct Q300 times meaning a well developed hub could serve a number of connecting markets


WLG<>TRG Capacity

WLG<>TRG Capacity 180,000 160,000 140,000

Anuual Seats

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000

40,000 20,000 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Sabre ADI

Capacity grew strongly prior to the GFC but has reduced since 2007


WLG<>TRG Exogenous Growth

Population & Economic Growth 190 180 170

Index (Y2000=100)

160 150 140 130 120

110 100 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TRG Population (Bay of Plenty)

WLG Population (Wellington)

TRG GDP/Capita (Bay of Plenty)

WLG GDP/Capita (Wellington)

Source: Stats NZ

Capacity has continued to reduce at a time when population and economic activity continues to grow


Jun 2015

Apr 2015

Feb 2015

Dec 2014

Oct 2014

Aug 2014

Jun 2014

Apr 2014

Feb 2014

Dec 2013

Oct 2013

Aug 2013

Jun 2013

Apr 2013

Feb 2013

Dec 2012

Oct 2012

Aug 2012

Jun 2012

Apr 2012

Feb 2012

Dec 2011

Oct 2011

Aug 2011

Jun 2011

Apr 2011

Feb 2011

Dec 2010

Oct 2010

Aug 2010

Jun 2010

Apr 2010

Cheapest Fares 12-Month Moving Average

WLG<>TRG Airfares WLG-TRG 1-Week Out Cheapest Fares

$200

$180

$160

$140

$120

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

$-

Source: WIAL Data

1-week out Cheapest airfares on the sector have grown by +34% due to constrained capacity


TRG’s Largest Markets TRG's Largest OD Markets 35%

30%

Proportion of Demand

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source: Sabre ADI

Current markets linked by WLG service

Possible future markets linked

Wellington is Tauranga’s largest OD market – a service operating TRG-WLG linking with existing WLG-CHC jet services would connect TRG to its first and third largest markets


WLG<>TRG Sector Traffic

TRG-WLG Sector Traffic 90% 80% 70%

50%

WLG-TRG Sector Traffic

40%

90%

30%

80%

20%

70%

10%

60%

0% TRG- -WLG (LOCAL)

TRG-WLG-CHC (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-NSN (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-DUD (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-TIU (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-PMR (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-BHE (BEYOND)

Anuual Seats

Anuual Seats

60%

50%

40% 30%

Source: Sabre ADI

20% 10% 0% WLG- -TRG (LOCAL)

CHC-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

NSN-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

DUD-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

IVC-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

TIU-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

BHE-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

Passengers of Air NZ’s existing service use WLG as a hub connecting to mainly South Island airports


WLG<>TRG Sector Traffic

TRG-WLG Sector Traffic 90% 80% 70%

Anuual Seats

60% 50%

40%

WLG-TRG Sector Traffic

30%

90% 20%

80% 10%

70% 0% TRG-WLG-CHC (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-NSN (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-DUD (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-TIU (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-PMR (BEYOND)

TRG-WLG-BHE (BEYOND)

Source: Sabre ADI

60% Anuual Seats

TRG- -WLG (LOCAL)

50%

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% WLG- -TRG (LOCAL)

CHC-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

NSN-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

DUD-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

IVC-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

TIU-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

BHE-WLG-TRG (BEHIND)

Passengers of Air NZ’s existing service use WLG as a hub connecting to mainly South Island airports



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