Ocala .........................................................................................................85

Short Term Outlook for Ocala, FL June 2022 Forecast

2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2023:2 2023:3 2023:4 2024:1 2024:2 2024:3 2024:4 2025:1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 17.1 17.4 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 5.0 6.7 6.4 5.5 4.7 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 Wages and Salaries 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 Nonwage Income 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 Real Personal Income (12$) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.5 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 Per Capita Income (Ths) 44.0 44.6 45.4 45.7 45.9 46.1 46.4 46.8 47.3 47.5 47.9 48.3 48.8 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 39.4 39.5 39.7 39.8 39.7 39.7 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.3 40.4 40.6 40.8 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 54.2 54.6 54.9 55.1 55.4 55.7 56.1 56.7 57.2 57.8 58.3 58.7 59.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.8 7.2 4.8 3.8 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 111.9 113.7 114.5 114.9 115.0 115.0 114.9 114.7 114.4 114.0 113.9 113.8 113.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 3.5 3.6 3.5 2.7 1.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 Manufacturing 9.9 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 5.1 6.4 7.9 8.0 3.1 0.5 -2.1 -2.9 -3.7 -4.3 -4.3 -3.1 Nonmanufacturing 102.0 103.3 103.9 104.1 104.2 104.3 104.2 104.1 104.0 103.7 103.7 103.7 103.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 Construction & Mining 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 5.6 5.4 4.9 1.6 -2.5 -4.3 -5.3 -5.2 -4.8 -3.9 -3.2 -2.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 5.0 3.2 0.1 -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 -1.7 -1.7 -3.2 -3.0 -3.5 -3.2 Wholesale Trade 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Retail Trade 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.3 16.9 17.0 16.7 16.6 16.3 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 Information 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 22.0 25.9 2.4 2.4 0.9 -8.3 -8.8 -11.5 -12.4 -9.8 -4.7 -0.5 2.5 Financial Activities 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 5.5 5.1 4.4 3.8 2.4 3.4 2.9 2.6 1.9 Prof & Business Services 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 0.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -4.0 -7.0 -8.6 -9.3 -7.9 -6.3 -4.0 -2.0 Educ & Health Services 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 2.8 3.0 4.4 4.5 3.2 2.5 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.2 3.7 2.8 Leisure & Hospitality 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 2.8 4.4 9.7 9.8 9.4 10.0 6.2 4.4 1.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 Other Services 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 4.0 7.0 4.5 4.5 1.2 0.8 1.9 3.2 5.8 6.9 7.5 7.0 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.6 8.4 1.0 1.9 1.4 0.3 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -2.4 -2.2 State & Local Government 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 0.6 2.9 2.6 3.4 3.7 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 389.2 390.1 391.2 392.5 394.0 395.7 397.3 398.7 399.9 401.3 402.6 403.9 405.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Labor Force (Ths) 142.6 143.8 145.0 145.7 145.9 145.8 146.0 146.1 146.0 145.7 145.5 145.3 145.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 Total Housing Starts 7050.0 6152.9 5473.5 4784.3 4339.0 4044.9 3863.0 3677.1 3553.3 3502.0 3604.9 3595.1 3594.0 Single-Family Multifamily

6023.1 5282.7 4721.9 4242.4 3906.8 3697.6 3589.7 3431.1 3332.3 3276.9 3373.0 3358.8 3357.4 1026.9 870.2 751.6 541.9 432.2 347.4 273.2 246.0 221.0 225.2 232.0 236.3 236.6

PROFILES

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

QUICK FACTS

• Metro population estimate of 2,508,970 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Lake County population estimate of 367,118 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Orange County population estimate of 1,393,452 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census

Bureau). • Osceola County population estimate of 375,751 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Seminole County population estimate of 471,826 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census

Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,383,667 in May 2022 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 2.7% as of May 2022, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 36,960 unemployed people (Florida Research and

Economic Database). OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando—Kissimmee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively high growth in the economic indicators studied in this forecast. The MSA’s Gross Metro Product level will be at $138,752.06, the fourth highest in the state. Average annual wage growth of 5.2 percent will push the average annual wage level to $67,300. The per capita income level of $44,400 will be boosted by personal income growth of 5.2 percent. Population growth will be 1.3 percent.

The Orlando MSA will experience the second highest average employment growth rate in the state at 2.5 percent annually. Orlando’s unemployment rate should average 5.0 percent, just above average.

Leisure & Hospitality is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 9.7 percent growth annually. The Other Services sector will see the second-highest average annual growth rate at 2.8 percent, followed by the Financial sector at 2.7 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

Osceola County lands promising new business partner at high-tech hub NeoCity

• SkyWater Technology, a Bloomington, Minn.based niche chip maker that supplies chips to the

U.S. military and other customers has recently partnered with Osceola County to keep BRIDG (Bridging the Innovation Development Gap) alive after UCF left. • SkyWater has spent nearly $1 million installing equipment and hiring employees. As of January, it had more than 30 employees at the site and was looking to hire nine more. It expects to create 220 jobs in Florida by 2026. • Brad Ferguson, SkyWater’s Florida senior vice president and general manager, expects the advanced packaging segment will “explode” in the coming years. Source: Florida Trend, March 9, 2022

Wendover Housing, Universal Parks Plan Affordable Housing Development in Orlando

• Universal pledged 20 acres of land in Orlando’s tourist corridor to be used for 1,000 units of affordable and mixed-income housing. The company selected Wendover Housing Partners to develop and manage the community. • Named Catchlight Crossings, community amenities will include an onsite, tuition-free preschool; onsite medical offices; a transportation center for buses, ridesharing, and employer shuttles; a 16,000-square-foot retail area; community event space; technology cafés; a makerspace for hobbies, and much more. • The development plans were submitted to the

Orange County Planning and Development department this week. Source: Rebusiness Online, March 30, 2022

Disney announces plan to build 1,300 affordable housing units in Orange County

• The Walt Disney Company shared plans to build 1,300 affordable housing units on 80 acres of land the company owns in southwest Orange

County near Flamingo Crossings Town Center. • As rents have spiked by around 30% in the last year, the average Orlandoan cannot afford to pay all their bills. This effort by Disney is an attempt to mitigate those hikes. • As of now, Disney has not shared information on who might build the project or qualifications for the affordable units. Source: Orlando Weekly, April 6, 2022

See inside the new Sanford HQ where drone startup Hoverfly will create jobs

• Drone startup Hoverfly Technologies Inc., on April 25, cut the ribbon on its new 20,500-square-foot headquarters in Sanford after moving from its previous 11,000-square-foot building near UCF. • Its new facility provides space for the 50 new jobs the company expects to create. Those jobs will

pay an average annual wage of $60,376, which is 20% higher than the county’s average wage. • The facility also includes lab space, a Faraday cage where Hoverfly can test frequency interference in an isolated area, a 3D printer for prototyping parts, and plenty of room outdoors to fly drones. Source: Orlando Inno, April 26, 2022

Announcing Orlando’s new comprehensive global brand

• Visit Orlando, and Orlando Economic

Partnership, announced the launch of one singular, comprehensive and consistent brand to promote the destination and region called

“Unbelievably Real.” • The Orlando Unbelievably Real (O.U.R) global brand’s goal is to highlight the region in a new way that tells a complete Orlando story combining what is both fantastical and authentic about our unique destination. • In 2021, Orlando welcomed 59.3 million visitors, a 68.1% improvement over 2020, and is currently aiming to reach 80 million visitors by 2024. Source: Visit Orlando, May 9, 2022

Kissimmee business to help Central Florida’s Hispanic residents purchase homes

• AmeriUno, a bilingual mortgage company, announced it will be holding free educational workshops to help the Hispanic and Latino population of Central Florida attain homeownership. • “We give them guidance, we educate them on how credit works — on how to become credit savvy,” said Melissa Correa, business development manager at AmeriUno. “Our mission is to close the gap of Hispanic homeowners in the United States.” • “In our own countries, we don’t trust in our banks because the government has a lot of say-so, and a lot of their governments take their money,”

Correa said. Source: Click Orlando, May 17, 2022

Long Term Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL June 2022 Forecast

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income

106.5 113.3 119.3 127.3 140.6 146.2 150.3 155.8 163.8

Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries

7.7 6.4 5.3 6.7 10.5 4.0 2.8 3.6 5.2 62.9 67.6 71.6 70.6 80.1 90.0 92.9 95.6 100.5 Nonwage Income 43.6 45.7 47.6 56.6 60.5 56.2 57.4 60.2 63.4 Real Personal Income (12$) 99.3 105.3 110.3 116.0 123.0 121.1 121.5 123.9 127.8 Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 6.1 4.7 5.2 6.1 -1.6 0.3 2.0 3.2 Per Capita Income (Ths) 41.7 43.4 45.0 47.5 52.2 53.6 54.2 55.2 57.1 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 38.9 40.3 41.6 43.3 45.6 44.4 43.8 43.9 44.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 50.1 52.1 53.7 58.1 62.5 66.7 68.9 71.3 73.5 Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 3.9 3.1 8.3 7.5 6.7 3.3 3.5 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 1249.3 1293.4 1329.7 1212.0 1275.2 1345.1 1344.4 1336.4 1363.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 3.5 2.8 -8.9 5.2 5.5 -0.1 -0.6 2.0

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

44.4 46.6 49.3 48.5 50.0 53.0 53.2 52.0 51.5 4.4 5.0 5.9 -1.6 3.0 6.1 0.4 -2.3 -0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1205.0 1246.9 1280.4 1163.5 1225.2 1292.1 1291.1 1284.5 1311.5 3.3 3.5 2.7 -9.1 5.3 5.5 -0.1 -0.5 2.1

Construction & Mining

74.2 82.2 86.1 83.0 83.2 83.1 82.0 82.4 84.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.7 10.8 4.7 -3.6 0.2 -0.1 -1.4 0.5 2.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 233.9 240.5 246.2 235.3 246.1 260.6 251.8 243.0 238.3 Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 2.8 2.4 -4.4 4.6 5.9 -3.4 -3.5 -1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 44.8 45.9 44.8 46.6 49.4 49.7 50.4 51.0 149.0 150.8 151.0 140.5 145.4 150.7 141.3 131.5 125.5 41.1 44.9 49.3 50.0 54.2 60.5 60.7 61.0 61.9 24.4 25.3 25.6 24.2 25.1 26.7 26.5 26.1 26.9 1.2 3.6 1.1 -5.4 3.7 6.6 -0.7 -1.8 3.2

Financial Activities

74.2 76.1 78.3 77.3 82.9 87.7 86.4 85.8 85.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 2.5 3.0 -1.2 7.2 5.8 -1.6 -0.7 -0.3 Prof & Business Services 219.8 229.0 235.0 218.0 237.4 246.6 224.0 206.9 220.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.3 4.2 2.6 -7.2 8.9 3.9 -9.2 -7.6 6.3 Educ & Health Services 152.2 155.5 160.7 158.2 163.5 167.1 168.1 172.0 174.4 Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 2.1 3.4 -1.5 3.3 2.2 0.6 2.3 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

257.2 266.5 276.2 201.9 221.8 251.1 280.7 291.5 300.4 3.1 3.6 3.6 -26.9 9.8 13.2 11.8 3.8 3.0 43.8 44.3 44.8 40.0 40.8 42.1 42.8 44.6 46.1 -0.6 1.1 1.2 -10.9 2.2 3.0 1.8 4.1 3.4

Federal Government

14.6 14.7 14.7 15.2 15.3 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 0.7 -0.3 3.7 0.4 5.4 -0.9 1.1 1.8 State & Local Government 110.6 112.8 112.9 110.4 109.1 111.0 112.9 116.0 119.2 Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 2.0 0.1 -2.2 -1.1 1.7 1.7 2.7 2.8

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2555.3 2611.4 2649.3 2678.6 2695.5 2728.5 2772.1 2819.7 2869.2 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 Labor Force (Ths) 1289.9 1322.3 1349.8 1325.7 1329.5 1384.7 1413.3 1432.0 1458.0 Percent Change, Year Ago 2.6 2.5 2.1 -1.8 0.3 4.1 2.1 1.3 1.8 Unemployment Rate (%)

4.0 3.4 3.1 11.0 5.1 3.8 5.1 6.1 6.1

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

19195.6 24729.2 23752.3 23584.3 27678.8 30269.0 28531.2 28509.1 29161.5 14376.1 15902.9 15349.8 15167.3 17780.5 19690.8 19993.8 20197.4 20491.6 4819.5 8826.3 8402.5 8416.9 9898.3 10578.2 8537.4 8311.7 8670.0