North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton................................................ 80

Short Term Outlook for North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL June 2022 Forecast

2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2023:2 2023:3 2023:4 2024:1 2024:2 2024:3 2024:4 2025:1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 58.2 58.8 59.8 60.4 60.8 61.4 62.2 63.0 63.9 64.5 65.1 65.7 66.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 4.3 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.3 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.3 3.8 Wages and Salaries 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.3 Nonwage Income 37.6 37.9 38.7 39.1 39.4 40.0 40.6 41.3 42.1 42.6 43.0 43.5 44.0 Real Personal Income (12$) 48.1 48.0 48.3 48.5 48.5 48.8 49.2 49.7 50.2 50.5 50.7 50.9 51.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.4 -1.6 -0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.4 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.0 Per Capita Income (Ths) 66.6 66.9 67.6 68.0 68.1 68.5 69.1 69.7 70.5 70.9 71.2 71.6 72.1 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 55.0 54.6 54.7 54.6 54.3 54.4 54.7 55.0 55.3 55.4 55.5 55.5 55.6 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 61.9 62.6 63.0 63.4 63.7 64.1 64.7 65.2 65.6 66.1 66.5 66.9 67.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.9 7.3 5.7 3.9 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 330.9 332.8 333.4 334.6 333.9 332.5 331.9 331.2 330.6 330.0 329.8 329.6 329.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.5 6.0 3.7 2.7 0.9 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 Manufacturing 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.2 18.9 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.5 8.7 4.9 4.9 1.9 -0.8 -2.6 -4.3 -4.4 -4.5 -4.9 -4.7 -3.7 Nonmanufacturing 312.3 314.0 314.3 315.4 314.9 313.8 313.4 312.8 312.6 312.2 312.1 312.1 312.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.3 5.8 3.7 2.5 0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 Construction & Mining 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 5.1 3.2 2.5 2.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 63.7 63.9 63.8 62.7 62.4 62.6 62.2 62.2 61.7 60.6 60.3 59.6 59.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 4.9 3.7 0.7 -2.1 -2.0 -2.6 -0.9 -1.1 -3.2 -3.1 -4.1 -4.1 Wholesale Trade 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 Retail Trade 46.2 46.0 45.9 44.7 44.1 44.4 43.9 43.7 42.9 41.7 41.2 40.5 39.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 Information 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.3 9.8 1.6 -1.2 2.0 -0.8 -2.9 -5.7 -8.3 -7.0 -2.6 1.2 4.2 Financial Activities 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 -0.6 -0.7 0.0 1.0 3.3 4.1 3.9 3.2 Prof & Business Services 51.9 52.0 51.8 51.1 50.1 48.3 46.6 45.1 44.2 43.5 43.0 42.9 43.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.1 8.7 5.8 0.9 -3.4 -7.2 -10.0 -11.7 -11.8 -9.9 -7.8 -5.0 -2.0 Educ & Health Services 58.8 58.5 58.7 58.5 58.4 58.1 58.7 59.3 60.1 60.6 60.9 61.0 61.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 5.5 3.7 1.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.1 1.3 3.0 4.4 3.7 2.9 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 44.4 45.2 45.6 48.3 49.4 50.3 51.4 51.3 51.2 51.5 51.8 52.0 51.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.3 4.7 2.1 9.2 11.3 11.2 12.7 6.3 3.6 2.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 Other Services 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.7 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.2 0.2 1.5 2.8 4.8 5.4 5.2 4.6 Federal Government 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 5.8 10.7 7.0 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 State & Local Government 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.2 9.2 5.9 1.9 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 874.2 879.1 883.8 888.2 892.6 896.5 900.2 903.6 907.1 910.4 913.7 917.1 920.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 Labor Force (Ths) 383.2 386.4 390.4 393.9 396.1 398.7 401.0 403.2 404.6 405.3 405.6 405.7 405.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 3.8 3.4 3.9 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 Total Housing Starts 15936.7 15323.0 14452.2 13190.5 12497.9 11772.3 11242.5 10833.5 10522.7 10309.4 10409.0 10336.5 10255.5 Single-Family 12611.7 11829.6 11565.4 10733.0 10157.4 9531.1 9059.2 8715.5 8478.5 8263.8 8331.0 8244.0 8178.8 Multifamily

3325.0 3493.4 2886.8 2457.6 2340.5 2241.2 2183.4 2118.0 2044.1 2045.7 2078.0 2092.5 2076.7

PROFILES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

QUICK FACTS

• Metro population estimate of 353,526 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Marion County population estimate of 365,579 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 144,227 in May 2022 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 3.0% as of May 2022, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,288 unemployed people (Florida Research and

Economic Database).

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in its economic indicators. Ocala’s Gross Metro Product is $10,453.11. Average annual wage growth of 5.4 percent will lead to an average annual wage of $55,000, the second lowest in the state. Personal incomes will grow by 5.5 percent, the fourth highest in the state. This will lead to a per capita income level of $40,200. Population growth will average 1.5 percent.

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.7 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 5.4 percent, the sixth highest of the MSAs studied.

The Leisure & Hospitality sector will lead Ocala at an average annual growth rate at 5.7 percent. The Other Services sector and the Financial sector will expand at respective rates of 3.9 percent and 3.8 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector, as well as the Federal Government sector, will both see contractions in growth of -1.3 percent and -0.9 percent, respectively. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

Marion Sovereign to be restored to boutique hotel, continue downtown Ocala revitalization

• The 95-year-old Marion Sovereign building, at 108 N. Magnolia Ave., will be restored from office condominiums to its former glory as a boutique hotel in the coming years by local philanthropists and developers David and Lisa

Midgett. • The hotel was originally built in 1927 to drive tourism to Ocala. In 1980, it was placed on the

US National Register of Historic Places, and in the 1990s was converted into the office condos of the present day. • The 48-room hotel would have paintings and sculptures by local artists, fine dining, a coffee shop/cocktail bar, a high-end boutique, and a club lounge overlooking downtown. The hotel should attract tourists looking for a unique experience and could help revitalize Ocala tourism. Source: Ocala Star-Banner, April 3, 2022

Palm Cay Townhomes & Apartments seeking approval for 354-unit development in SW Ocala

• Palm Cay Townhomes & Apartments is seeking approval from Marion County officials to rezone four parcels for the construction of 228 apartments and 126 townhomes in southwest

Ocala. • The apartment buildings would consist of 24 or 36 units and be up to three stories in height.

The townhomes would include a series of four-, five-, and six-unit structures, up to two stories in height, and each unit would have a one-car garage and a driveway to accommodate another vehicle.

• Amenities for the proposed development would include a clubhouse and pool for apartment residents, and an amenity center with a pool for townhome residents. The conceptual plan for the development also provides for 14 acres of open space. Source: Ocala-News, April 4, 2022

Ocala/Marion County, Florida addresses growthrelated concerns

• Marion County has approved more than 50,000 housing units in the past five years, news that was announced during a two-plus hour county commission work session designed to provide an overview of Marion County’s current situation due to recent residential and commercial development booms. • To put the explosive growth in perspective, new residents in 2021 created a housing demand of 2,251 residential units. Now there are 190 people moving to Marion County every week. If the average household is 2.5 people, that means builders need to construct 76 residential units per week (about 4,000 annually) to keep up in 2022. • James Banta, Marion County fire chief, stated that 10 new stations are needed immediately at a cost of $3-4 million. Marion County will also need $537 million, even with the sales taxes, to finance all its road projects over the next five years. Finally, the issue of school overcrowding and funding was not discussed. Source: S.E. Florida Daily News, May 11, 2022

Expansions, promotions and more: Business news in Ocala/Marion County for May 23, 2022

• New Smyrna Beach-based Epic Flight Academy opened a satellite location at the Ocala

International Airport for the academy’s FAA

Part 141 flight training program, according to a company news release. • REV Fire Group, which includes Ocala-based

E-ONE, has introduced Vector, “the first

North American-style fully electric fire truck,” according to a company news release. • CareerSource Citrus Levy Marion has received an $844,712 federal grant to support its Phoenix

Rising YouthBuild program. “YouthBuild is a pre-apprenticeship, competitive grant program funded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s

Employment and Training Administration. This is the fourth such grant obtained since 2013” to support the program, CLM said in a news release. Source: Ocala Star-Banner, May 22, 2022

Owens Corning Completes Acquisition of WearDeck®

• Owens Corning (NYSE: OC) announced that it has completed the acquisition of WearDeck®, a premium composite decking and structural lumber manufacturer based in Ocala, Florida. • Owens Corning expects to significantly grow this business in the coming years and contribute to the company’s target of achieving $10 billion in revenue by 2024. Owens Corning estimates the North American decking market to be more than $7 billion and to grow at about 5% per year.

Composite decking products capture over 30% of the market, a share that is expected to increase in the coming years. • “As we begin integrating WearDeck into Owens

Corning, I’m excited about the opportunities in front of us,” said Composites President Marcio

Sandri. “WearDeck solutions will advance our growth strategy and help pivot our Composites business to focus on high-value material solutions within the building and construction space.” Source: Business Wire, June 01, 2022

Long Term Outlook for Ocala, FL June 2022 Forecast

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income

12.9 13.5 14.2 15.5 17.0 17.6 18.3 19.2 20.1

Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries

6.0 4.6 5.2 9.4 9.4 3.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.7 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 Nonwage Income 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.5 11.3 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.3 Real Personal Income (12$) 12.8 13.3 13.9 15.0 15.8 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 Pct Chg Year Ago

4.0 4.2 4.1 8.5 5.0 -2.1 1.9 2.9 2.9 Per Capita Income (Ths) 36.1 37.1 38.3 41.0 43.9 44.9 46.3 47.8 49.5 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 35.8 36.7 37.5 39.7 40.9 39.6 39.8 40.4 41.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 41.1 42.3 43.7 47.1 51.3 54.7 56.0 58.0 59.7 Pct Chg Year Ago

-0.1 2.8 3.3 7.9 8.9 6.6 2.3 3.6 3.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 103.0 105.8 108.3 106.6 110.2 113.8 114.9 114.0 114.4 Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 2.7 2.5 -1.7 3.4 3.2 1.0 -0.7 0.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.7 10.3 10.2 3.9 5.4 7.8 2.3 4.9 5.2 2.3 -3.8 -1.0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

94.8 97.2 99.1 97.1 100.3 103.3 104.2 103.8 104.2 1.7 2.5 2.0 -2.0 3.3 3.0 0.9 -0.4 0.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 7.8 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.5 4.8 8.1 7.9 2.2 3.0 4.5 -2.7 -4.3 -1.9 24.7 25.4 26.1 26.2 27.8 28.8 28.0 27.2 26.8 3.9 2.7 2.7 0.8 5.8 3.5 -2.6 -2.8 -1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 16.5 16.8 16.7 16.5 17.5 17.8 16.8 15.8 15.1 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.1 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.1 -5.2 -17.5 -17.1 4.7 12.2 -7.0 -7.0 1.0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 -1.5 4.1 3.4 4.7 2.8 1.1 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.8 10.6 10.5 10.0 9.3 9.4 -2.1 5.3 0.0 3.6 7.4 -0.6 -5.0 -6.9 1.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.5 18.8 18.8 18.4 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.2 20.6 0.8 1.7 0.1 -2.5 -0.1 2.7 3.2 3.9 1.9 12.9 13.1 13.5 11.7 12.5 13.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 2.5 2.1 2.6 -13.5 6.9 5.4 8.8 1.6 1.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 -4.5 -2.5 1.4 -3.1 2.8 4.8 2.1 5.9 5.4

Federal Government

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.0 3.5 18.3 -5.7 3.1 0.8 -1.8 -1.3 State & Local Government 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.2 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.7 14.9 Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 0.7 2.2 -2.2 -2.1 1.1 3.1 1.4 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

357.0 363.1 370.2 378.5 386.3 390.7 396.4 401.9 406.8 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 Labor Force (Ths) 132.8 134.7 138.0 138.9 141.9 144.3 146.0 145.6 146.0 Percent Change, Year Ago 0.7 1.5 2.4 0.7 2.2 1.7 1.2 -0.2 0.2 Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1 4.5 3.9 7.7 5.0 4.2 5.6 6.7 6.7

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2074.1 2645.1 2413.5 3624.0 5978.0 5865.2 3981.0 3563.9 3568.4 1922.3 2599.6 2400.9 3607.2 5688.8 5067.5 3656.3 3335.2 3332.6 151.7 45.5 12.7 16.8 289.2 797.6 324.7 228.6 235.8