Implications of Welfare Reform for Child Care Availability in the Crystal Stairs Service Area Executive Summary Recent welfare reform has significantly increased work requirements for welfare recipients. Due to this change, it is expected there will be a significant increase in the demand for full-time, yearround child care. The County of Los Angeles anticipates that potential increased demand for child care is greater than known supply (i.e., licensed child care). License-exempt care (e.g., relatives, friends, neighbors) is extremely difficult to quantify, and the supply is unknown to administrators. Yet adequate child care supply, both licensed and license-exempt, is necessary for the successful implementation of work requirements and to help move families off welfare. Parents who cannot find reasonably available child care may be temporarily excused from work requirements. Crystal Stairs, the county's largest child care Resource and Referral agency/Alternative Payment Provider, has numerous welfare families in its service area. In order to help administer child care services to these families, Crystal Stairs has an interest in analyzing the known child care supply and potential new demand to get an indication of the potential supply shortage. The intent of this report is to estimate the magnitude of the licensed supply shortage in the Crystal Stairs service area and to recommend broad action to help meet welfare reform policy goals. With regard to child care, the policy goal is to ensure there is enough child care to enable parents to meet increased welfare reform work requirements. To do this, child care may be licensed or license-exempt, it must be within a reasonable distance from parents' home or work, it must provide care for all hours parents will be engaged in work-related activities (generally full-time), and it must be safe and dependable. Because licensed care is known to Crystal Stairs, it is the focus of this analysis. Also, it is assumed parents will want child care near their homes, and zip codes are used as a geographic indicator. This report uses secondary analysis of existing data and imposes general statistical and geographic information system (GIS) analysis to arrive at a conclusion about supply and demand. The supply data was gathered from Crystal Stairs’ CareFinder database, and the demand data is from the county’s Department of Public Social Services database, based on September 1997 Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) caseload data. Key Findings In the Crystal Stairs service area, potential demand far exceeds current licensed supply. Current vacant supply meets only 11% of the potential demand from children eligible for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). The supply and demand gap is greatest for infant and school-aged care, with 8% and 6% of potential need met, respectively. While preschool supply is greater, it will only meet 22% of potential new demand. Current capacity serves predominantly preschool-age children (68%), while potential new TANF demand will be largely school-aged children (52%). Jill Cannon
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June 1998