Linking Union Station and LAX A Financial Analysis of the Slauson Corridor Express
This project will link the Metro Blue Line at the Slauson Station to the Metro Crenshaw Line at the Florence/West Station (Figure 2). This link will allow for LTR express service between LAUS to LAX utilizing Metro’s 2035 LRT system displayed in Figure 3. The result of this connection will be enhanced connectivity for potential riders to get to and from LAUS and LAX.
RESEARCH QUESTION The research question guiding this financial analysis is: What is the financial feasibility of building, operating, and maintaining a LRT line using the Slauson Corridor to provide express service to and from LAX and LAUS?
This financial analysis is a theoretical exercise, where an Alternatives Analysis, conceptual engineering, or preparation of a DEIS/DEIR have not taken place. Given that no design or engineering details are available, this analysis relies on the Historical Bid Price Method for capital costs and Metro’s O&M Cost Model for O&M costs. HISTORICAL BID PRICE METHOD The Historical Bid Price Method establishes average unit prices based on past unit bids for similar work. These prices are adjusted for time and location according to a construction cost index and city cost index. Average unit process from sixteen LRT at-grade projects from the Federal Administration’s (FTA) Capital Cost Database provide the basis for the Slauson Corridor Express capital costs. The FTA Standard Cost Category (SCC) sheet separates each capital cost by purpose.1 All cost estimates are in 2014 Based Year dollars, with contingencies calculated according to FTA recommended percentages.2
Methods
Introduction
This financial analysis of the Slauson Corridor Express will provide rough estimates of capital costs to build a Light Rail Transit (LRT) line on the Slauson Corridor. It will also include operating and maintenance (O&M) costs to provide express service to and from Los Angeles Union Station (LAUS) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). The section of the Slauson corridor under study is an east-west Metro owned right-of-way that extends approximately 5.34 miles in length through the center of the region of South Los Angeles (Figure 1).
METRO’S O&M COST MODEL The Metro O&M cost model is developed in a disaggregate, resource buildup format, consistent with the methodology specified by the FTA.
Metro’s 2035 LRT Systtem
Figure 1: Section of the Slauson Corridor Under Study
Preliminary Results
COST The preliminary capital cost estimations totaled $389.2 million (Table 2). This estimate includes allocated and unallocated contingencies. The preliminary capital cost estimates will be further refined in subsequent stages of project. O&M At this time no preliminary O&M costs have been calculated. A preliminary ridership model will be available for the O&M costs. Assumptions for this ridership model include: • 15 minute headways • total distance from LAUS to LAX of 16.2 miles • average speed of 34.6 miles per hour • average travel time in one direction of 28 minutes REFERENCES U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal Transit Administration. (2010) FTA Capital Cost Database. Retrieved February 2014, from the Federal Transit Administration Website. http://www.fta.dot.gov/12305_11951.html U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal Transit Administration. (2011). Standard Cost Categories (SCC) for Capital Projects (2011 – FOR HISTORICAL REFERENCE). Applying for FTA Grant Programs. Retrieved March 2014, from the Federal Transit Administration Website. http://www.fta.dot.gov/13070_2580.html U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal Transit Administration. (2013) Standard Cost Categories (SCC) for Capital Projects. New Starts SCC Workbook. Retrieved October 2013, from the Federal Transit Administration Website http://www.fta.dot.gov/12305_15612.html Procedures and Technical Methods for Transit Project Planning. (2014). Estimation of Operating and Maintenance Costs (Draft Version 3). Retrieved March 20143, from the Federal Transit Administration Website.
Table 1: Metro O&M Model Input Variables Annual Boardings (Unlinked Passengers) Routes Peak Vehicles Active Fleet Vehicles Articulated Buses Service Sectors Operating Divisions Annual Revenue Bus/Car Miles Annual Revenue Bus/Train Hours Contract Service Hours Route Miles Elevated Stations At-Grade Stations Subway Stations Total Stations Automated Operation
Next Steps
O&M costs were estimated using an O&M cost model calibrated to Metro’s fiscal year (FY) 2013-2014 Adopted Budget. The model uses the driving variables presented in Table 1.
Figure 2: Link Between Metro’s Blue and Crenshaw lines
Table 2: Capital Cost Estimates By FTA Standard Cost Category (2014 $ in Millions) SCC Code
Cost Categories
10
Guideway and Track Elements
30
Support Facilities
20 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Stations, Stops, Terminals Sitework and Special Conditions
2014 Base Year Cost
206.3
0.0 0.0 3.1
Systems
25.0
Vehicles
25.7
ROW, Land Professional Services
Unallocated Contingency Finance Charges Total Cost
0.0
107.9
21.2
0.0
$389.2
Next steps to complete this financial analysis for the Slauson Corridor Express include: • Refine capital cost estimates • Calculate O&M costs • Identify potential funding Sources • Explore risk mitigations measures CONTACT INFO
Salvador Montes, 2014 UCLA MURP montes.salvador@gmail.com 310-956-8586
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Faculty Advisor, Professor Brain D. Taylor Client’s representative, Eugene Kim, Ph.D Classmates & Coworkers My Wife Lorena