UCL Australia Class of 2013 Research

UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON

Graduation

2013 1

From the Chief Executive Welcome to University College London’s third Australian graduation. A lot has happened since last year.

UCL has a new Provost, Professor Michael Arthur, who joined in September; enrolments at UCL Australia continued to grow; and Australia has finally beaten England in a Test cricket match; a comprehensive drubbing in Brisbane two weeks ago.

That’s political incorrectness - coming from an English university!

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I am also pleased that many things have remained the same; we enjoyed continued support from our industry partners, students survived a full academic year and UCL retained its ranking as the world’s fourth best university.

In 2013 we also invested heavily in founding our PhD and post-doctoral research programmes, which enabled us to open new research themes in the areas of unconventional gas, adding value to resources, renewable energy, resource monitoring, water and micro grids. Academic staff and students alike presented at top national and international conferences and we contributed directly to Australia’s intellectual capital base.

We published two major policy green papers and a series of thought-provoking statements and research papers in the areas of nuclear energy, shale gas and the low-carbon economy.

I am delighted to present the graduating class of 2013 and thank you for the commitment and support towards University College London.

With best wishes

David Travers CHIEF EXECUTIVE 11 December 2013

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Class of 2013 - List of Graduates

MSc JOOHONG HUH RAHMAN MULYA IRA SAVITRI JAMES ABBOTT LENDYN MARCUS PHILIP MATTHEW BOURAEE LISTYA MUSTAFIDA 4

Grad Diploma JULIE-ANN SIMPER KYOUNG WOO KIM

Grad Certificate A M Y S E P P E LT ANDRE LEVEY BARRY MYERS BRENTON EMERY DAMIEN MAVROUDIS DAVIDE ROSSI G I U S E P P E G U G L I O T TA MARK BUTTERWORTH MELANIE TOYER PETER DOSPISIL PHILLIP GORDGE PRZEMEK GROBELSKI TIM DEAN YING LUO 5

AUSTRALIA SHOULD BUY INTO URENCO

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JAMES ABBOTT The Australian or South Australian Government should invest in uranium enrichment company URENCO, which is being privatised. A strategic investment would give Australia access to profits without the risk of developing a new technology, leaving the options open for Australia to construct a future uranium enrichment facility.

As one of the world’s largest producers of uranium, Australia’s current production only transforms uranium ore into yellowcake, which is then exported to other jurisdictions for manufacturing into nuclear fuel.

Australia’s lack of vertical integration and the failure to capture significant “value-add” in an environment of growing uranium demand warrants further evaluation.

This research used a microeconomic costengineering model to determine whether Australia could profitably operate a conversion and enrichment plant, as well as an estimation of the transport advantage for Australia in supplying South/East Asia (in comparison to incumbent producers). A review of legal impediments to domestic development of the nuclear fuel cycle was also considered.

The economic analysis indicated the uranium conversion could not independently operate in Australia. A conversion and enrichment plant with joint operations would be marginally profitable in Australia under certain circumstances.

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POLICY BARRIERS CONSTRAIN HYPERSPECTRAL POTENTIAL

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MATTHEW BOURAEE Technical, market and policy barriers in the development of hyperspectral imaging technology may constrain the opportunity for commercial success in the Australian energy and resources sector; if left unattended.

This research found these main barriers as well as the opportunities and constraints for Australian companies to be competitive and collaborative with other overseas hyperspectral imaging initiatives.

The study was pertinent to hyperspectral imaging specialists interested in recognising the global setting for commercial remote sensing as well as the Australian Government which is responsible for remote sensing related policy matters.

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KOREA FILLS LNG NEEDS

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JOOHONG HUH Korea is unlikely to require any further immediate liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with Australia, following its overseas investment in LNG exploration and production and its influence on international LNG projects.

While Korea was the second largest LNG importer in the world this year, the research found Korea’s policies for the energy sector - including gaining security of supply, approaches to environmental issues, choices of fuel mix in power generation, investment in infrastructure and deregulation of electricity and gas markets - have all contributed to a scenario where it is unlikely to invest further in Australian LNG projects.

Australia currently has the most LNG projects under construction globally and is heading towards becoming the world’s largest LNG exporter by 2020.

This dissertation discusses the future Australia-Korea relationship and analyses historical and current natural gas demand and supply structure in Korea and factors that influence gas consumption.

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ELECTRICITY REFORM INCONCLUSIVE FOR VICTORIA

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RAHMAN MULYA The goal of transforming the Victorian electricity sector by reducing the price of electricity and increase efficiency has produced inconclusive benefits.

The state of Victoria is one of five interconnected regions that form the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Its generation capacity is dominated by brown coal generation (60 per cent) followed by gas (19 per cent), hydro (17 per cent) and wind (4 per cent).

The research found that all high prices (outliers) were caused by market mechanism due to system’s supply scarcity, on the normal condition where high prices did not occur, there was a positive price trend on Victoria’s electricity market. In the short run the price trend increased 0.049 S/MWh, meanwhile on the long run, the price trend increased 0.049$/MWh.

This research aimed to find the spot market’s price trend in the Victoria electricity market in the period 1998-2012. Using multiple regression analysis, by finding the relationship between price and time, all the prices were counted in constant dollars where nominal prices were deflated using CPI index for all groups.

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VEGETATION MATTERS FOR CSG WATER IRRIGATION 14

LISTYA MUSTAFIDA The choice of native vegetation is a significant factor in successful land rehabilitation using saline CSG water in Queensland.

This research suggests while much of the soil types – chosen for their CSG values – are fixed there was a significant result for electrical conductivity (EC) (dS/m) under different vegetation on certain soils.

For example, using PERMANOVA analysis some significant results were found in red kandosol soil (P(perm)= 0.035). The difference between each soil type in terms of EC was also confirmed as significant (P(perm)=0.004). A significant interaction between soil type and sub-replicates was achieved under cleared dryland buffel grass (P(perm)=0.025).

Analysis on salt mass (t/ha) showed a significant difference between vegetation under the same red kandosol soil.

Santos’s Coal Seam Gas (CSG) fields in Maranoa Region, Queensland, had been cleared for dryland pasture and later were turned into Chinchilla White Gum (CWG) (Eucalyptus argophloia) woodland, irrigated by CSG waste water as part of the beneficial use of CSG produced water.

The sites with remnant ironbark and brigalow vegetation had the least land use disruption compared to the other two land use types. This appeared to justify their use as native vegetation sites to represent pre-clearing for paired cleared and irrigated plantation sites. Some salt mass and concentration losses were observed under change of land use from native vegetation to cleared dryland under red kandosol soil.

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A STRATIGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK FOR COOPER BASIN SHALES 16

LENDYN MARCUS PHILIP Underexplored basins worldwide could have significant shale gas potential, previously overlooked, if a combination of Facies analysis, chemostratigraphy and palaeo-environmental studies are combined with basic well log data collected historically to provide new framework.

The geological characteristics of commercially producing shale gas plays vary widely. Yet the majority of commercially producing plays seem to have been formed in a marine environment, suggesting that non-marine shales are less prospective. The rationale being that non-marine environments are richer in clay minerals and less amenable to hydraulic fracturing.

This research developed and partially applied a framework methodology to screen prospective shale gas plays in terms of key subsurface criteria.

The results show that both non-marine formations compare similarly to marine analogues in terms of thickness, total organic content, thermal maturity of organic matter, natural gas content and Poisson’s ratio. High carbon dioxide content, high clay mineral content and low values for Young’s modulus distinguish the lacustrine Roseneath and Murteree Shales from marine gas shales in the USA. Overall, these variables negatively affect a well’s ultimate recovery of gas, and therefore economics should be considered before deeming the formations nonprospective.

The analysis presented suggests that facies analysis is useful for the identification and prioritisation of gas rich zones, and that integration of chemostratigraphy with palaeo-environmental studies may produce a robust stratigraphic framework for shale gas exploration and appraisal in the Cooper Basin.

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JAVA-BALI SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE RESERVE MARGIN 18

IRA SAVITRI The restructure of the Indonesia electricity market system aims to achieve price efficiency and encourage new investment. However, these two intentions are contradictory with regard to spare capacity, also known as the reserve margin level in the system.

This research examined an optimum reserve margin of the Java-Bali prospective competitive market with energy-only and spot-price system, by simulations using PLEXOSÂŽ software.

establishes a balanced condition that creates price efficiency and encourages investment.

The simulations yielded different levels of optimum reserve margin in perfect and imperfect competition conditions. A sensitivity analysis on the results concerning the existence of market power demonstrates that high reserve margin does not necessarily improve price efficiency. The research suggests the Java-Bali system could increase the reserve margin, consider changing generator technology and fuel used, or lessen market power.

Intense competition in a high reserve margin condition increases price efficiency but reduces incentives for investors. In an energy-only market, these incentives are required to compensate investment cost that is not guaranteed. Failure to obtain them might discourage new investments. Conversely, a low reserve margin condition enables investors to control market prices that can lead to price inefficiency.

Hence, an ‘optimum’ reserve margin is sought that

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