evaluation team recruited two experienced consultants familiar with the development challenges and context of Honduras. Despite the challenges and delays, the evaluation was able to guarantee respect for evaluation norms and professional standards.
1.3 Country context Honduras has a population of 9,385,764,8 and is categorized as a low-middle-income country, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$ 25.1 billion and a growth rate of 2.7 percent in 2019.9 Honduras is in the medium human development country category, ranking 132 out of 189 countries in 2019.10 In 2019, the services sector was the largest component of GDP (60 percent), followed by the industrial sector (28 percent), and the primary sector (12 percent).11 In terms of activities, manufacturing and agriculture made up 17.6 percent and 11.5 percent of GDP respectively.12 In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic weakened vital sectors of the country’s economy, including manufacturing, commerce, construction, hospitality and transportation and storage, reducing tax collection.13 Despite multiple strengths, and the potential for economic growth due to its strategic location, growing industrial base and young and growing population,14 Honduras has one of the highest levels of poverty, inequality and social exclusion in the region. In 2019, approximately 18.7 percent of the population were living in poverty, with 54.8 percent in extreme poverty.15 Income inequality in Honduras is one of the highest in the region, and its Gini Index stood at 52.1 in 2018.16 The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Honduras, especially in relation to employment. In 2020, approximately 5.2 percent of the labour force was unemployed and employment stagnated as a result of the lockdown and layoffs.17 The health sector has also been vulnerable due to the limited capacity of the national health system. As of 24 January 2021, a total of 140,238 confirmed cases and 3,441 deaths had been reported in the country.18 While the Government of Honduras took early measures to stop the spread of COVID-19,19 the country is expected to experience increases to 20.5 percent poverty and 57.8 percent extreme poverty, and of 1.4 percent in the Gini Index, by the end of 2020.20 The lack of citizen security is a major development obstacle to the country’s development, poverty eradication and the exercise of rights and democratic governance.21 The economic cost of violence has been estimated as $6,506.4 million in 2019, or 13 percent of GDP, ranking 23 out of 163 countries according to the Global Peace Index 2020. The national homicide rate was 44.7 (per 100,000 inhabitants) in 2019.22
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Population in Honduras as of January 2021. https://www.ine.gob.hn/V3/ World Bank data: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=HN Human Development Report 2019: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/HND.pdf Honduras in digits (2017-2019), Central Bank of Honduras. CEPALSTAT, Databases and Statistical Publications, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Honduras National Economic Profile, 2019. Behaviour of the Honduran Economy as of the III Quarter of 2020, Central Bank of Honduras, Economic Studies Department, Economic Information Management Department. World Bank. Honduras country context. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/honduras/overview Survey of Multi-Purpose households, National Institute of Statistics Honduras, June 2019: https://www.ine.gob.hn/publicaciones/ Hogares/EPHPM_2019 World Bank Gini index: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=HN World Bank, total unemployment (ILO estimate). https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?locations=HN World Health Organization Emergency Dashboard, COVID-19 as of January 2021. https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/hn http://covid19honduras.org/?q=congelamiento-de-precios-absoluto The social challenge in times of COVID-19, United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, May 2020.. UNDP Regional Report on Human Development “Citizen Security with a human face: assessment and proposals for Latin America”. Special bulletin on homicides in Honduras 2019; University Institute in democracy, peace and security; Republic of Honduras Public Ministry; National Police; RNP; National Autonomous University of Honduras.
CHAPTER 1. BACKGROUND AND INTRODUC TION
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