Limitations of this review

industry, which accounted for 17.5 percent of GDP in 2017, and is particularly crucial for the economy of Zanzibar.17 The World Bank has estimated that the COVID-19 crisis could increase the poverty rate by 2.5 percent. 18 The health impacts of COVID-19 are less clear, due to a lack of official statistics on the spread of the disease since May 2020, when the count was at 509 cases.19 In spite of limited data, interviewed stakeholders observed that the health impact of COVID-19 thus far had been less severe than in other regions of the world. This experience is consistent with other countries in Africa. 20 Annex 2 provides an overview of the key country and programme statistics.

Limitations of this review

The ICPR is an independent validation of the UNDP country office self-assessment, not a comprehensive evaluation of the country programme. The ICPR methodology emphasises validation of the outputs of existing monitoring and reporting systems, as well as independent assessment of the relevance of programmatic strategies. While the overall availability and adequacy of documentation was fair, results reporting and evidence to substantiate claims made by the country office on contributions to outcomes were limited. In some cases, project officers, managers or external stakeholders had moved on to other positions, or projects had come to completion mid-way through the CPD cycle, making it difficult to interview informants with intimate knowledge of certain interventions implemented in the current cycle. This review has been conducted under challenging circumstances created by the COVID-19 pandemic. The ICPR did not include field visits and relied on the desk review of available documents with a limited number of remote interviews. 21

2. PROGRESS TOWARDS OUTPUTS AND CONTRIBUTIONS TO OUTCOMES

The CPD results framework is organized around three of the four strategic priorities set out in the UNDAP 20162021: • Inclusive growth: The economy is increasingly transformed for greater pro-poor inclusiveness, competitiveness and increased opportunities for decent and productive employment. • Environment sustainability, climate change and resilience: Improved environment, natural resources, climate change governance, energy access and disaster risk management. • Inclusive governance: National governance is more effective, transparent, accountable and inclusive. The CPD programme budget for 2016-2021 is $120.9 million. An overview of progress and ratings for outputs, and contribution to outcomes, is presented for each of the three outcomes. The overview is complemented by detailed findings and evidence presented in Annex 1.

17 United Nations Tanzania (April 2020) Rapid Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 in Tanzania. 18 World Bank (June 2020) Tanzania Economic Update: Addressing the Impact of COVID-19. 19 https://www.who.int/countries/tza/ 20 As covered in briefings by the WHO regional director for Africa in recent press briefings (see coverage at https://www.devex.com/news/data-suggests-the-pandemic-is-playing-out-differently-in-africa-98204). The reasons for this are not clear, but a significant factor is likely to be the youthful age profile of the population in Africa. In Tanzania, almost half the population (43.6 percent) are less than 15 years old, and just 2.6 percent are 65 and older. This compares to Italy, for example, where just 13 percent of the population are aged less than 15 years, and almost one quarter (23.3 percent) are 65 or older (population statistics as at October 2018 from https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard). Globally, over 75 percent of recorded COVID-19 deaths are in those aged 65 years and older. (see https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20201005-weekly-epiupdate-8.pdf). 21 30 interviews were conducted covering United Nations staff (2), UNDP personnel (22), development partners (7), CSOs (1) and key government agencies (3).