Outcome 1 Inclusive growth

Outcome 1 – Inclusive growth

Overview of Outcome 1 progress and ratings – The UNDP Tanzania country programme is on track to address one of the five outputs of the inclusive growth outcome. UNDP is likely to meet indicators for Output 1.1 covering support for the integration of poverty, environment and gender considerations into policies and plans (albeit the indicator is weakly defined, which makes measurement difficult). UNDP made a marginal contribution to inclusive and sustainable social protection in Tanzania (Output 1.2) and is falling well short of targets for the expansion of social protection coverage and women’s entrepreneurship. UNDP provides some support for job creation and enterprise development (Output 1.3), but not on the scale envisioned by the established targets. UNDP made some progress towards the review and operationalization of growth sector policies (Output 1.4), but not at a pace to be sure targets would be met. UNDP was unable to make progress against three of the four indicators for Output 1.5, with modest progress recorded on the fourth. The evaluation assessed UNDP influence on Outcome 1 as low, due to the low relevance of two of the five indicators, and the limited scale of contributions to the remaining three indicators compared to targets.

Finding 1 – UNDP has been influential in drawing attention to the linkages between poverty, environment and gender equality for sustainable development in government policies and plans. However, work under the inclusive growth outcome lacks a clear strategic focus on levers for transformational change, based on analysis of constraints on sustainable and inclusive growth.

Through the longstanding poverty and environment partnership with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), UNDP has previously had significant engagement in national policy development, with a focus on promoting recognition of the relationship between poverty and environmental sustainability. UNDP has engaged in policies covering fisheries, forestry, environment and climate change, and agriculture. 22 UNDP had a significant role in promoting increased attention to the implications of climate change for livelihoods and poverty, and mainstreaming climate change considerations at national and local levels.23 There is evidence to suggest that past UNDP policy engagement supported an increase in budget allocations on environment for development, although it is not known whether this was a permanent or one-time increase. 24 The current UNDP focus is on integrating poverty and environment dimensions in district-level planning and promoting increased regional investment. UNDP has produced a series of regional investment guides which will eventually cover each of Tanzania’s 31 regions, and which have been welcomed by the Government of Tanzania and form the basis for the development of a national investment guide that will incorporate all the investment opportunities from the various regions. UNDP maintains a focus on livelihoods and enterprise development through several initiatives. While these are delivering tangible benefits to people on the ground, they are currently operating on a micro scale, and weak evidence is available about scalability and sustainability. These downstream interventions have targeted expanding women’s access to roles across agricultural value chains and reducing time burdens, with some success, on a limited scale.25 UNDP does not play a significant role in supporting the development of Tanzania’s social protection system. UNDP has promoted the consideration of gender equality in policy development at national and subnational levels. This has included diagnostic studies of gender gaps in agriculture26 and cost-benefit analysis of community

22 UNDP–United Nations Environment Poverty-Environment Initiative Phase 2 Final Progress Report, 2014–2018. 23 UNDP (2016) Mainstreaming Environment and Climate Change Adaptation in the Implementation of National Policies and Development Plans Project: Terminal Evaluation Report. 24 UNDP (2019) Final Programme Evaluation of Joint UNDP – UN Environment Poverty Environment Initiative 2013-2018. 25 UNDP (2018) Thematic evaluation of UNDP contribution to Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment at mid-term stage of implementation of the Country Programme Document 2016 – 2021. 26 See: https://info.undp.org/docs/pdc/Documents/TZA/Final%20Report%20%20Gender%20Gap%20April%202018.pdf