Abstract

Abstract

The objective of this study is to create evacuation routes in the risk management area at a tsunami event in Esmeraldas, Ecuador, comparing the results with the current contingency plan. The applied methodology allows to understand the operation of a tsunami model to obtain the flood area in a highly dangerous scenario, determining the different application variables and using the results in a routing machine with different parameters and presenting the flood zones that affect in creating optimal routes.

The numerical model used for forecasts execution is COMMIT /MOST for different scenarios. The selection of the most affected scenario will allow the TUNAMI N2 propagation model methodology to be applied, which was adapted to the particular local conditions to obtain the maximum flood area in Esmeraldas. The OSRM or OpenStreetRoutingMachine software is used, being a routing machine used in the OpenStreetMap project and it is a free Software licensed using routing algorithms and defined network analysis. The main use is the creation of evacuation routes using geographic information systems.

Based on the results, it is concluded the need to update the contingency plan and implement a methodology that focuses on potential danger areas by creating flood maps for cities and evacuation routes in a proposed scenario for the area of study. Regarding the methodology, the conclusions on its scalability towards other cities are added, replicating the necessary parameters in its implementation.

Keywords:

Network Analysis Spatial distribution Evacuation routes Tsunami Numerical Modeling Inundation