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The overview of important elections around the world
The cases of U.S.A, EU, Russia and Iran
by By Uxío Fernández Ferrás and Mariami Gatenashvili
More than 60 countries are called to vote this year for either national or local elections. 2024 is the biggest global election year in history, and the results will influence numerous aspects of international dynamics. Considering that we are facing political, environmental and social crises in different parts of the planet, and current wars, the context of this year is particularly tense. That’s why it is crucial to understand the dynamics of some specific countries holding elections this year, whether due to their global impact or their internal particularities.
USA elections
One of the main questions many people might have is “Again these two?”, referring to Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The will of Biden to repeat as President of the USA, as well as the lack of serious alternatives in the Republicans, make them compete after four years again.
The U.S.A. is the third-largest country in the world and consists of 50 states with a population of over 334 million, having a Federal presidential constitutional republic. On the 5th of November 2024, citizens from every state are called to vote for the President and the Vice President they want to be represented by.
The U.S. is involved in many worldwide conflicts, and the results of the elections are going to have a global impact. The Gaza War, the Ukrainian war due to the tense relationship with Russia and the migrants trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico borders are some of the international affairs that could be affected by the voting result. Given these factors, these elections attract worldwide attention, as people anticipate how the outcome will impact future international relations.
The statements regarding the Ukrainian-Russian war by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former U.S. President Donald Trump offer insight into the potential impact of future leadership on the conflict. Zelensky emphasised “If the policy of the next president whoever he is - will be different toward Ukraine, colder or more inward-oriented… then I think these signals will greatly affect the course of the war”. Meanwhile, Trump’s states that he would end the war within 24 hours if he was elected, even though he doesn’t clarify how.
As for the Gaza war, Trump has always critiqued Biden’s handling of the situation. Even though a New York Times–Siena College poll from December 2023 reveals that young voters are leaning towards Trump because of Biden’s backing of Israel, his historical track record and ambiguous stance suggest that his election wouldn’t necessarily guarantee increased safety for Palestinians. Trump’s past policies offer little difference from Biden’s approach. His remarks focus on personal narratives rather than constructive engagement, exploiting discontent with Biden’s handling of the conflict. This is exemplified by Trump’s Islamophobic remarks, suggesting barring Palestinians from the US, as well as his pro-Israel “peace-plan.” His claim that the war wouldn’t occur if he were in office adds to his strategic ambiguity, potentially bolstering his electoral prospects. While Trump may exploit dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the conflict for electoral gain, his presidency wouldn’t necessarily lead to improved conditions for Palestinians.
EU elections
The European Union consists of 27 states, mainly in the European continent. The outcomes of the elections will influence not only the approximately 448 million people living in it but even more. The 10th parliamentary elections of the E.U. will be held between 6th and 9th of June. Each country will select their representatives, a number of whom is determined by the population of the state. For the realisation of the elections, each country follows its own process.
Lately, the EU is going through many challenges such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the prices of the products which are conditioned by particularly brutal inflation in recent years, the environmental crisis, the migration crisis, the application of Brexit in 2021, and so on. On many occasions, these crises have created divisions among the members of the E.U. which can also explain the surge of the populist extreme-right. The biggest EU mission at this point is to regain trust and maintain cohesion among its members.
Although the European Parliament doesn’t hold the highest influence in EU foreign policy, the alignment of political groups post-election and its effect on national discussions in member states will greatly influence the European Commission and Council’s capacity to implement foreign policy decisions, particularly in advancing the next stage of the European Green Deal.
According to the main polls, the leading parties will be the EPP and the Socialists. However, one of the biggest challenges in the upcoming elections will be the expected rise of the extreme right group: Identity and Democracy. In fact, if the extreme right overcomes the Liberals in third place, they will have an increasing influence in decisions and agreements. This could lead to a big alliance of the two big parties, the Liberals and the Greens.
While the response towards the war in Ukraine is not predicted to be changed, other decisions related to basic Human Rights, the cohesion of the Union (some of the extreme right parties are actually eurosceptic) or the humanitarian crisis in Gaza are at stake in this future elections.
Russian elections
From the 15th to the 17th of March, Russia is holding its new Presidential elections still immersed in the war in Ukraine. The fact that he has been President for 24 years and the ongoing conflict’s stagnation don’t appear to be reasons enough to question Putin’s leadership. It seems obvious that he will start a new six-year term in the Presidency.
In contrast to electoral processes in other countries, such as the USA, where the results may significantly shape the nation’s path for the next few years, the presidential election in the largest country in the world may be seen as a mere formality. The strong support that Putin is getting from the population and the lack of opposition parties or new alternatives will reaffirm him in the Presidential seat until 2030 at least. In the unlikely scenario of Putin not having 50% of the votes on the first round, the possibility of opposition would be embodied by Nikolay Kharitonov (Communist Party), Leonid Slutsky (LDPR, conservative nationalism) and Vladislav Davankov (New People, liberals), that are for now expected to finish in second, third and fourth place in that order. As a curiosity, it will be the first election in which the populations of the Ukrainian territories now controlled by Russia can participate.
Putin will extend his presidency for another six years, reaffirming himself in the power and gaining time to keep the military operations in Ukraine without any relevant internal opposition. This establishes Russia as one of the rising powers in the new world order under his controversial leadership.
Iranian elections
On March 1st, Iran will conduct two different elections that hold crucial implications for the nation’s future: the Assembly of Experts’ and the Legislative ones. In 2023, the country made a historical agreement with their traditional enemies, Saudi Arabia, in order to normalise their relationship. However, since the last months of 2023 the situation has escalated in the region, with the conflagration of the war in Gaza and the criminal actions of Israel (Iran’s other rival in Middle East) against Palestine but also Lebanon, Syria or, more recently and shockingly, Iran itself. If we consider also the protests and rising of the internal opposition since 2022, these elections hold importance for elucidating the near future of the nation.
It is important to understand the political structure of Iran to be able to comprehend better its way of function. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holding this position since 1989, is surrounded by the Assembly of Experts (composed of 88 members that are guarantors of the Islamic law). One of the missions of this institution is choosing the Supreme Leader of the Republic. He is followed by the President of the Republic, currently Ebrahim Raisi, and the Islamic Consultative Assembly, elected the 1st of March, both supervised and controlled by the Guardian Council (12 experts in Islamic religion and Islamic law not voted in these elections).
The 1st of March, the Iranian population will also vote for new members of the Assembly of Experts’, considering the potential replacement of Ali Khamenei, who will turn 85 next April. Considered among the future candidates are his son Mojtaba Khamenei, the former President Hassan Rohani or even the current holder of the position, Ebrahim Raisi. Both elections (also the ones for the Consultative Assembly) will be influenced by whether or not the Reformists, the main opposition group against the Islamic system parties that have been in power since 1979, choose to participate. If they decide to take part in the process, the power and seats of the Principlists will be reduced. If not, they may secure all the seats but the legitimacy of the electoral process will diminish both within Iran and on the international stage.
These elections will decide the near future of the country, either keeping the current ideological and religious position or the beginning of a shift to bring Iran close to the West. The situation in the Middle East and in the whole world in general could be changed by the political context in Iran during and after the elections.
