Education Intelligence
Future internationalisation of Higher Education in Ibero-America A British Council databook July 2014
www.britishcouncil.org/education-intelligence
Š 2014 British Council. All rights reserved. 2
Table of contents The future of internationalisation
4
Megatrends: The future of international education
5
Demographic shifts
6
Economic dynamics
8
Growth in education provision
9
Student mobility forecasts
10
The student decision-making process
12
Investment in research and business
13
Internationalisation of higher education
16
The promising future
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The future of internationalisation One of the most important challenges shared by Ibero-American universities in this new millennium is how to achieve a deeper and sustainable relationship with the global research community. In order to reach international recognition, many higher education institutions from the region need to overcome common structural issues, such as scarce resources for research, a low level of English fluency of the population, an underdeveloped job market for PhDs and a lack of public policies to strengthen international cooperation. While the countries that fall under the Ibero-American umbrella may have different priority areas, the broad challenges that arise in this era of internationalisation are shared by all. What the region offers to the research community are varied and plentiful: a vibrant and multicultural environment, a young and creative population, unexplored natural resources and a great willingness to participate in the global scenario. Harnessing this potential and channeling momentum towards the development of sustainable policies have evolved into a common goal. In this report, we aim to further understand the rate and nature of the ongoing change in the internationalisation of higher education in the Ibero-American region. We welcome today’s discourse on internationalisation and hope through our analysis we can contribute to the region’s competitiveness in the future global marketplace.
Claudio Anjos Director Education and Society British Council, Brazil
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Megatrends: The future of international education Economic and demographic data provide the most reliable foundation upon which to base analysis of future growth of international education. How these two drivers merge can often indicate the direction of international higher education’s future growth. However, further investigation has shown that other factors, outside of an increase in population and the capacity to fund education, will impact emerging trends. The Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies describes Megatrends as great forces in societal development that will affect all areas of general human growth and progress in years to come. These long term driving forces, or Megatrends, have great importance now and there is confidence they will have great importance in the future. Apply this conceptual strategy of future planning to the world’s international education industry and what Megatrends can we identify? Whilst developing forecasting models that aimed to predict future flows of tertiary students we have been able to refine our list of core drivers that we believe will have a profound effect on the direction and growth of international higher education in the future. Although not an exhaustive or complete list, we have identified seven Megatrends. These are demographic shifts, economic dynamics, growth in education provision, changes to political conditions, digital technology, global work force demands and cultural impact. This report looks at a number of these drivers in assessment of the future of higher education in Ibero-America.
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Demographic shifts Forecast population growth in Ibero-America: 2015 – 2030
Country
2015
2020
2025
2030
Brazil
203 657
211 102
217 519
222 748
Mexico
125 236
131 955
138 195
143 663
Colombia
49 529
52 379
54 955
57 219
Spain
47 199
47 789
48 082
48 235
Argentina
42 155
43 835
45 423
46 859
Venezuela
31 293
33 417
35 383
37 172
Peru
31 161
33 079
34 877
36 514
Guatemala
16 255
18 281
20 394
22 566
Chile
17 924
18 645
19 285
19 815
Ecuador
16 226
17 416
18 563
19 649
Bolivia
11 025
11 913
12 801
13 665
Dominican Republic
10 652
11 235
11 759
12 219
Honduras
8 424
9 235
10 035
10 811
Portugal
10 610
10 579
10 514
10 433
Paraguay
7 033
7 607
8 165
8 693
Nicaragua
6 257
6 665
7 038
7 391
El Salvador
6 426
6 614
6 759
6 875
Costa Rica
5 002
5 295
5 549
5 760
Panama
3 988
4 296
4 597
4 882
Puerto Rico
3 680
3 679
3 693
3 704
Uruguay
3 430
3 482
3 536
3 581
Andorra
81
84
86
89
Source: UN Population Division 2014
The UN population division describes the current rate of aging in the global population as unprecedented. Examples from developed economies allow us to understand more immediately the consequences of people growing older and living longer as well as the profound effect these factors have on societal development; Spain and Portugal are two cases of countries with low population growth forecasts due to the birth rate slowing. Running counter to the increasing age of the global population is the rise of youth populations in emerging and developing nations, including Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Argentina.
740 Million Total population in 2030
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Future internationalisation of Higher Education in Ibero-America
Regional population forecasts, 2015 - 2030 Forecast population growth trend from 2015 to 2030 Above 25% Mexico 21 - 25%
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
15 - 20%
Puerto Rico
Guatemala Honduras
Andorra
Nicaragua
Portugal
5 - 14%
Spain Below 5%
Costa Rica Panama
Venezuela Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Brazil
Bolivia
Paraguay
Chile
Uruguay Argentina
Source: UN Population Division, 2014
One effect of the growth in the youth population is the steady increase of young people seeking better access to healthcare and educational opportunities in urbanised areas. In some parts of Ibero-America the rapidly rising number of tertiary-aged individuals adds a further layer of complexity to the shifts in demographics that are predicted to impact demand for and access to education.
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Economic dynamics GDP per capita (current US$), 2012 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000
Nicaragua
Bolivia
Honduras
Paraguay
Guatemala
El Salvador
Ecuador
Dominican Republic
Peru
Colombia
Costa Rica
Mexico
Brazil
Panama
Argentina
Venezuela, RB
Chile
Uruguay
Portugal
Spain
0
Puerto Rico
2,500
The diverse size and maturity of economies in Ibero-America is best illustrated by varying GDP per capita. Led by Spain, Puerto Rico and Portugal, there are clearly countries within the group that are developed, and emerging and frontier markets that have lower per capita incomes which can be described as higher-risk. Colombia is often described as an emerging market that could provide potential for rapid growth and outsized returns attracting interest from high-risk investors.
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
Government expenditure on education 8 7 6 % of GDP
As a nation’s GDP rises, so does government’s ability to invest in education. Whilst a considerable proportion of government expenditure on education is invested in basic education as the focus on improving basic numerously and literacy continues, increasing investment in foundational skills and higher education is beginning to be seen.
5 4
Peru
Dominican Republic
Andorra
Guatemala
El Salvador
Panama
Honduras
Ecuador
Colombia
Uruguay
Chile
Nicaragua
Spain
Paraguay
Mexico
Portugal
Brazil
Argentina
Costa Rica
Venezuela
2
Bolivia
3
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, most recent year available 2008 – 2012, data for Puerto __Rico not available
8
Growth in education provision
Previous analysis has shown that there is a direct correlation between growth in GDP per capita and tertiary education enrolments. Nations with GDP per capita incomes of up to US$10,000 experience the steepest rise in gross tertiary enrolments; for rises in GDP per capita above this US$10,000 mark, gross tertiary enrolments continue to rise but at a more nominal pace. Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Panama are examples of countries within the grouping that are reaching this per capita GDP level and witnessing quickly increasing gross enrolment ratios.
Gross tertiary enrolment ratio 100
80
60 (%) 40
Andorra
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
El Salvador
Brazil
Dominican Republic
Bolivia
Ecuador
Peru
Panama
Colombia
Costa Rica
Uruguay
OECD average
Chile
Portugal
Venezuela
Spain
Argentina
0
Puerto Rico
20
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, most recent year available 2008 – 2012
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Student mobility forecasts
The global higher education sector has seen substantial expansion over past decades, with the latest data suggesting that this strong growth has been maintained over the past five years, despite the global economic slowdown and continued fiscal uncertainty. The sector generates a range of significant direct, indirect and catalytic economic impacts (e.g. human capital, research, innovation and trade promotion), which have important benefits pertaining to both individuals and global economies. The higher education sector has characteristics similar to other industries, in that as well as being driven by domestic demand from home students, a substantial portion of the demand for higher education comes from abroad. The international component of global higher education is fast-growing and represents a lucrative export market for host countries across the world. In October 2013, the British Council published a report that aimed to forecast the growth of globally mobile students to the year 2024, focusing on a range of key international student mobility indicators and markets to 2024.
Domestic tertiary enrolment forecasts to 2024 25,000
20,000
(000’s)
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2012
2014 US Spain
2016
2018 Brazil Colombia
2020
2022
Mexico
2024 UK
Venezuela
Source: The future of the world’s mobile students to 2024, British Council, 2013
Driven by both demographic and economic trends, gross higher education enrolment ratios are forecast to rise across all countries between 2011 and 2024. The scope for higher education enrolment ratio growth is more limited among countries with already high enrolment ratios. Instead, the greatest growth potential is with countries with low-to-mid current enrolment ratios and strong economic growth outlooks.
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Future internationalisation of Higher Education in Ibero-America
Outbound mobile students to 2024 80 70
(000’s)
60 50 40 30 20 10
2014
2015
2016
US Spain
2017
2018
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Brazil
Mexico
UK Venezuela
Colombia
Host countries globally will continue to attract mobile students in higher education over the next decade. By 2024, almost 3.9 million students are predicted to be studying towards higher education qualifications outside their home countries (in nations analysed as part of the British Council study), up from just over 3 million in 2011; this is equivalent to annual average growth of 1.8 per cent per annum. Outbound mobility ratios are forecast using a combination of the following variables: household incomes, trend factors, exchange rate, and domestic tertiary sector capacity. These ratios tend to be relatively stable over time.
Source: The future of the world’s mobile students to 2024, British Council, 2013
Inbound mobile students to 2024 1,000
800
600 (000’s)
Forecasting the study destinations of globally mobile students is limited by data availability and the range of countries included in the research. Whereas outbound mobile student forecasts are based on higher education enrolments within a single country and its outbound mobility ratio, inbound student forecasts essentially require the summation of outbound mobile student flows from all origin markets to the particular destination market in question.
400
200
0
2014
2015
2016
US Germany
2017
2018
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Australia
UK Canada
Brazil
Spain
Source: The future of the world’s mobile students to 2024, British Council, 2013
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The student decision-making process Since February 2007, the British Council has been collecting data from aspiring international students on their decisions to study around the world. Our Student Insight data set currently represents survey responses from over 180,000 people in 200 countries and territories and gives details of the factors influencing student decisions in selecting a country, city, institution and programme, as well as who and what have influenced their decision to study overseas.
Influencing factors when considering overseas study
Brazil
Colombia
Mexico
Portugal
Spain
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Better quality of education/course overseas
Obtained scholarship overseas
Cheaper to study in another country
Other
Course not offered at home
Previously studied overseas
Cultural experience of living overseas
To improve career prospects
Family's expectations of overseas study
To improve English language skills
Intend to emigrate
Unable to obtain an offer in home country
Source: Student Insight, Education Intelligence, British Council, data from 2012 – 2014
Respondents from Ibero-America indicated that improvement of career prospects, better quality of education, improvement of English language skills and having the cultural experience of living overseas are all highly influential factors when selecting a destination country to study in.
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Investment in research and business Investment in research and business remain drivers of not only international education but also of globalisation of an economy and a society. Data show that within Ibero-America, investment trends are diverse and disparate, indicative of the varying degrees of growth in this area.
Gross domestic expenditure on research and development (GERD) as a percentage of GDP (2010) 1.8 1.6 1.4 (% of GDP)
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
Guatemala
El Salvador
Panama
Colombia
Uruguay
Chile
Mexico
Costa Rica
Cuba
Argentina
Brazil
Spain
0.0
Portugal
0.2
Source:UNESCO Institute of Statistics, 2014
While growth in higher education systems in Ibero-America will certainly link to increased academic research and collaboration, such growth may come from a low base and as such, opportunities for high-quality research production are also dependent on other interlinked factors. Networks and casual acquaintances amongst academics are often the catalysts for initiating joint research projects, thus placing special importance on cultural and physical links between people, cities and countries.
There is a correlation between government investment in research and development (GERD) and the number of researchers in a country as well as the level of innovation and business research nationally. Higher spending in Portugal, Spain, Brazil, Argentina and Costa Rica are manifested in part by the comparatively higher number of researchers per million inhabitants. Conversely, lower investment in Colombia, Panama and Guatemala is mirrored in lower numbers of researchers.
Researchers per million inhabitants (FTE) Portugal
4,166
Spain
2,924
Argentina
1,092
Costa Rica
973
Puerto Rico
674
Brazil
667
Uruguay
509
Mexico
369
Chile
286
Venezuela
182
Colombia
164
Bolivia
142
Panama
109
Guatemala
40
Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics
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Future internationalisation of Higher Education in Ibero-America
Citations, by country
International research collaboration motivates greater cooperation, revenue generation and international recognition and there remains a correlation between collaboration rates and citations per document, which is a proxy for the quality of a piece of work. Citations and published research also play a strong role in international rankings and countries with relatively higher investment in research, including Brazil and Argentina have higher numbers of citable documents and citations.
Total patent applications by origin (direct and PCT national phase entries) Spain Brazil
11,755 6,597
Mexico
2,206
Portugal
1,130
Country
Citable documents
Citations
Spain
715,452
8,688,942
Portugal
134,447
1,342,075
Brazil
53,083
17,580
Mexico
15,464
6,531
Puerto Rico
10,953
150,252
Argentina
10,430
6,040
Chile
7,707
5,001
Colombia
5,498
3,196
Cuba
2,012
372
Venezuela
1,656
466
Peru
1,105
722
Uruguay
975
474
Costa Rica
577
329
Ecuador
540
377
Panama
422
331
Bolivia
207
144
Guatemala
178
110
Paraguay
124
43
El Salvador
105
45
Nicaragua
104
49
93
921
Argentina
1,082
Andorra
Chile
790
Dominican Republic
78
52
Colombia
348
Honduras
72
24
Cuba
181
Venezuela
96
Peru
71
Uruguay
52
Costa Rica
45
Panama
32
Paraguay
32
Dominican Republic
24
Andorra
18
Ecuador
15
Guatemala
14
Honduras
9
Nicaragua
6
Bolivia
3
Source: SCImago Journal & Country Rank, SCOPUS
Source: WIPO statistics database. Last updated: June 2014
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Global business research continues to grow exponentially and be used as an indicator of national innovation; on INSEAD’s Global Innovation Index 2014, Spain and Portugal were the top ranking Ibero-American nations, at 26 and 24 respectively, followed by Costa Rica at number 39. Business research allows education institutions to partner with businesses to enhance productivity and advancement in a nation and patents are often used as an indicator of technological development. We see that according to patent applications, Spain, Brazil, Mexico and Portugal, followed by Argentina and Chile, are the most innovative Ibero-American nations, while Honduras, Nicaragua and Bolivia are progressing much more slowly.
Future internationalisation of Higher Education in Ibero-America
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$)
Country
2004
2008
2012
Brazil
18,165,693,855
50,716,402,711
76,110,663,189
Spain
24,791,557,810
77,884,454,330
33,231,832,534
Chile
7,172,719,415
15,149,843,109
30,323,047,078
Mexico
24,820,542,066
28,336,685,790
17,223,652,740
Colombia
3,015,635,874
10,158,358,827
15,528,957,750
Portugal
1,660,654,223
7,518,979,341
13,377,449,646
Peru
1,599,038,389
6,923,651,285
12,244,224,090
Argentina
4,124,710,000
9,725,560,000
12,115,818,514
Dominican Republic
909,040,000
2,728,400,000
3,415,900,000
Panama
1,019,100,000
2,454,600,000
3,250,600,000
Uruguay
332,369,488
2,141,969,341
2,906,636,723
Costa Rica
793,834,548
2,078,238,732
2,680,664,969
Venezuela, RB
1,483,000,000
1,258,000,000
2,199,000,000
Guatemala
296,000,000
751,109,110
1,263,638,429
Honduras
546,864,271
1,200,798,087
1,067,550,208
Bolivia
65,430,000
512,335,605
1,059,965,391
Nicaragua
250,000,000
626,100,000
804,600,000
Ecuador
836,939,594
1,006,330,020
591,323,301
Paraguay
37,679,000
260,900,000
497,700,000
El Salvador
363,270,000
903,050,000
447,709,564
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
There also exists a positive relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and knowledge transfer, as well as the internationalisation of higher education. In many cases, nations look to FDI in order to acquire relationship and technologies to spur internal national growth and industry and this positive relationship is partially evidenced by the high levels of FDI and innovation in Brazil, Chile and Mexico.
Global 500 companies by country
Ranking
Country
# of companies
12
Spain
8
16
Brazil
7
19
Mexico
3
25
Venezuela
1
25
Colombia
1
25
Chile
1
Source: Fortune, 2014
Investment and innovation manifest themselves in growth in productivity and industry and rising numbers of Ibero-American companies are operating on a global scale. Companies based in Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Chile are represented within the top 500 global companies by Fortune in 2014.
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Internationalisation of higher education According to the 2013/14 QS World University Rankings, 37 of the top 500 universities globally are found in Ibero-American nations; over 2,000 higher education institutions are evaluated for the study. The rankings are compiled according to six categories: academic reputation (40%), student-to-faculty ratio (20%), citations per faculty (20%), employer reputation (10%) and lastly international faculty ratio (5%) and international student ratio (5%); academic reputation, the most weighted category, is based on a global survey of academics regarding their preferences. Spain has the highest number of high-ranking institutions, followed by Brazil and Argentina. It is also worth noting that other ranking services use dissimilar methodologies and therefore use different weights, such as increased emphasis on research and publishing, to evaluate universities.
Number of universities in QS World University Rankings top 500 2 Mexico Dominican Republic Puerto Rico
Guatemala Honduras El Salvador
13
Nicaragua
Portugal 3
Costa Rica 1
Panama
3
Venezuela
Colombia Ecuador 6 Peru
Brazil
Bolivia
Paraguay 3 Chile
6 Argentina
16
Source: QS World University Ranking
Uruguay
Spain
Andorra
Future internationalisation of Higher Education in Ibero-America
With the assistance of an expert Advisory Committee and support from our sponsoring partners, the British Council, the European Commission, NAFSA and EAIE and the International Association of Universities (IAU) analysed responses from 1,336 higher education institutions in 131 different countries. The research presents the largest and most geographically comprehensive collection of primary data on internationalisation of higher education available today. This tailored analysis focuses specifically on countries from the Ibero-American region that took part in the survey across Latin America, Portugal and Spain.
Institutional benefits: What are the three most significant benefits of internationalisation to your institution? Increased/diversified revenue generation
Most significant
Opportunity to benchmark/compare institutional performance within the context of international good practice
Second most significant Third most significant
Enhanced international cooperation and capacity building Enhanced internationalisation of the curriculum Enhanced prestige/profile for the institution Strengthened institutional research and knowledge production capacity Increased international awareness / deeper engagement with global issues by students Improved quality of teaching, learning Increased international networking by faculty and researchers 0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: IAU 4th Global Survey, April 2014, British Council analysis
When asked to identify the three most significant benefits of internationalisation to institutions in Ibero-America, surveyed institutions indicated increased international networking by faculty and researchers, improved quality of teaching, learning and increased international awareness/deeper engagement with global issues by students as most significant.
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Future internationalisation of Higher Education in Ibero-America
Institutional risks: What are the three most significant potential risks of internationalisation to your institution? Reputational risk derived from our institution's offshore activity
Most significant
Too much focus on recruitment of fee paying international students
Second most significant
Homogenisation of curriculum
Third most significant
Overuse of English as a medium of instruction Excessive competition among higher education institutions Over-emphasis on internationalisation at the expense of other priorities of importance for staff and students Brain drain Pursuit of international partnerships/policies only for reasons of prestige Difficulty regulating locally the quality of foreign programmes offered International opportunities accessible only to students with financial resources 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Source: IAU 4th Global Survey, April 2014, British Council analysis
International opportunities accessible only to students with financial resources, difficulty regulating locally the quality of foreign programmes offered and pursuit of international partnerships/policies only for reasons of prestige, were identified as the greatest risks to institutions.
Societal risks: In your country, what are the three most significant potential societal risks associated with current trends in internationalisation of higher education? Over-dependence on international students
Most significant
Loss of linguistic diversity
Second most significant
Dominance of a ‘western’ epistemological approach
Third most significant
Loss of cultural identity Growing gaps in terms of development among countries and regions Increase in number of foreign ‘degree mills’ and/or low quality providers Brain drain Commodification and commercialisation of education Growing gaps (e.g. quality / prestige / institutional capacity) among higher education institutions within your country Unequal sharing of benefits of internationalisation amongst partners 0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: IAU 4th Global Survey, April 2014, British Council analysis
Unequal sharing of benefits of internationalisation amongst partners, growing gaps (e.g. quality, prestige, and institutional capacity) among higher education institutions within your country and commodification and commercialisation of education were identified as the potential greatest risks to society.
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The promising future Strong demographic growth and economic development will provide the basis for future trends in higher education in the Ibero-America region. Investment by governments and industry in research and development will drive the enrolment in the tertiary education sector that, propelled by increased investment and focus on internationalisation in institutional strategies, will begin to mature. Students from within the region have increasing international aspirations to both study overseas and experience other cultures. All of these long term drivers, or Megatrends, will shape the future of internationalisation of higher education in Ibero-America.
British Council Education Intelligence In this report, Education Intelligence, the British Council’s global higher education research team, brings together significant primary and secondary data and tailored analysis to illustrate future growth in international higher education in Ibero-America. Our aim is to facilitate institutions and organisations in the development of their internationalisation strategies through global research that examines timely and significant education trends. http://ei.britishcouncil.org ei.support@britishcouncil.org.hk
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