Changing Populations November 2018 | Issue 3
Issue 8
Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in the UK
July 2021
Family patterns of immigrants and their descendants in the UK
Sandwich generation feels the pressure during the coronavirus pandemic
Contents Welcome 3
Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in the UK
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Helping ONS improve population estimation
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Family patterns of immigrants and their descendants in the UK
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Sandwich generation feels the pressure during the coronavirus pandemic
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CPC Director on ITV News coronavirus podcast
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New ABM course materials available 12
FemQuant
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New projects and funding
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CPC webinars
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Researcher spotlight
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PhD spotlight
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www.cpc.ac.uk
Welcome
Facts and Figures January 2021 – June 2021
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elcome to this edition of Changing Populations. We are now over a year into the pandemic, and CPC research continues apace to understand its effects.
ONLINE EVENTS
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MENTIONED IN
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And finally, we meet some of the research team in our researcher spotlight, with Professor Athina Vlachantoni celebrated as part of the UN’s Women in Science Day, and Dr Joanne Ellison discussing her PhD journey, see page 16.
Indeed, research from our team investigating societal ageing has highlighted the pressures faced by the ‘sandwich generation’ during the pandemic, and how many people are providing informal care for older loved ones as well as supporting grown-up children or caring for younger children, read more on page 9.
I wish you a good summer!
We celebrated International Women’s Day in March, taking a closer look at the careers of Professors Jane Falkingham and Jackie Wahba and how they have contributed to the advancement of science in their respective fields.
PAPERS
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CPC WEBINARS
On page 4, we explain Professor Ann Berrington’s forecasts of the UK’s fertility in the context of the pandemic, and what the projected trends could mean for society as a whole. A popular topic in the media in recent months, declining birth rates can be a cause for alarm for many different reasons, from the opportunities for young people to fulfil their childbearing intentions, to being able to adequately support an ageing population in the future.
CPC members continue to provide comment and speak about our research across the media. Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, CPC’s Director, has appeared in news shows and podcasts in recent months, speaking about demographic changes and CPC’s Covid-19 research.
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The CPC Modelling strand members have been working with ONS on new methods to overcome the challenges of missing data resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Find out how Professor Peter Smith and his team are innovating research methods on page 8.
With my colleagues on the MigrantLife project, I have been examining how partnerships and childbearing patterns change for immigrants and their descendants in the UK. You can read about our findings on page 6.
PRESENTED
As always, I hope you enjoy finding out more about our research activities. If you have any questions or comments, please email cpc@southampton.ac.uk
Professor Hill Kulu CPC Co-Director
NEWS AND MEDIA OUTLETS
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PUBLICATIONS
464,600
TWITTER IMPRESSIONS
3,366,521 WEBSITE HITS
Upcoming events: 6 July: Emerging Researchers in Ageing: BSG pre-conference event 7 July: British Society of Gerontology Annual Conference 7 July: Social Policy Association Annual Conference 7 July: 18th annual IMISCOE Conference 16 July: CPC Webinar - Maarten Bijslma 16 July: Webinar - The demography of COVID-19 and older people in low and middle-income countries 23 July: CPC/CRA Webinar – Yazhen Yang 6 September: CPC session on Statistical Demography at the Royal Statistical Society Conference 6 September: FemQuant Conference - Beyond the binary variable: Feminist quantitative analyses of gendered inequalities 14 September: The British Society for Population Studies Conference 5 December: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population International Population Conference
For further details about our events, please visit www.cpc.ac.uk/ activities/full_events_ calendar To keep up-to-date with our latest news, events and publications, visit www.cpc.ac.uk, follow us on Twitter @CPCpopulation and Facebook. For all the latest CPC news and comment, visit our ‘Centre for Population Change in the news’ page on Scoop.it! www.scoop.it/topic/ centre-for-populationchange 02
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Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in the UK Levels of childbearing in all the countries of the UK were declining even before the pandemic. The impact of Covid-19 could mean a further fall in fertility rates to historically low levels.
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esearchers will not know the true impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on fertility rates in the UK between 2021 and 2023 until data become available. Using previous knowledge of how ‘economic shocks’ affect society, the research team created ‘what if’ scenarios to test how the pandemic might affect the number of babies born in the UK, and whether we will be facing a baby boom, or a baby bust.
Having considered four scenarios of how the Covid-19 pandemic might affect individuals at different ages, three out of four of the scenarios showed an expected fall in the number of births over the next three years. If these scenarios play out, it will lead to significantly fewer births each year compared with the pre-pandemic period. The research team, led by Professor Ann Berrington, examined fertility trends in the UK as part of the ESRC FertilityTrends project. They found that fertility rates are persistently lower in Scotland than in England and Wales, and consistently higher in Northern Ireland but, in all countries of the UK, fertility rates have been declining for all age groups. This is true even among older women in their late thirties and forties, among whom fertility had previously risen due to more women at older ages having children after previously delaying their childbearing.
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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) provisional estimate of the total fertility rate (TFR) for England and Wales, based on the first three quarters of 2020, suggests that fertility rates had fallen to historically unprecedented low levels even before the pandemic. The provisional TFR of 1.6 children per woman for England and Wales is lower than that seen during the 1930s or 1970s. The researchers highlight that any impact of Covid-19 on fertility rates must be viewed in this already unusual context. The research team put forward a number of mechanisms through which the pandemic could affect childbearing, according to the age of the individual and the presence of children. For people under the age of thirty, most of the mechanisms exert a depressing effect on childbearing. Some possible reasons include a lack of socialising because of lockdowns, and more economic uncertainties caused by the fallout of the pandemic. Historical evidence on fertility rates following the 2008 recession from other Northern and Western European countries suggests that it is young people who are most likely to see a decline in rates of childbearing. Among those who already have at least one child, and among older couples who are more stable in their housing and financial situations, there are a number of pandemic-
related issues that could result in them having fewer children. These could include, for example, concerns about the reduced support from health services or family and friends during the pandemic. There are also ways the pandemic might increase the likelihood of people having more children. For example, couples had more time to spend together at home during lockdowns, or unemployment may have provided people with an opportunity to step back from their careers to start a family or have another child. Professor Berrington comments: “Our examination of some of the potential mechanisms through which the pandemic could affect childbearing suggests that recent declines in fertility rates could well be accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The projected Total Fertility Rates from our four scenarios provided a range of possibilities, however three out of four of the scenarios suggested fewer births.” She continues: “The observed number of births could move even further below the 2018-based ONS National Population Projections (NPPs). These factors will need to be considered by ONS when making the next set of NPPs, and by policy making groups and service providers when planning postpandemic recovery.” She adds: “The differences we have seen across all four scenarios, and the possible cumulative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on childbearing rates in the UK, could have significant implications for service provision across the UK.”
Further reading Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic (CPC Working Paper 95) Covid ‘baby bust’ fears as fertility rate falls to record low (The Telegraph) Britain’s falling birthrate will damage our society – and it’s not just Covid to blame (The Guardian) Lockdown baby boom may be on the way as NHS antenatal bookings rebound (The Guardian) Generation childless: Has Covid caused a baby bust? (The Telegraph) The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble ahead (The Guardian) Child-free by choice (BBC Radio 4 PM) The women who decided they don’t want children during the pandemic (Refinery29)
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Family patterns of immigrants and their descendants in the UK Dr Júlia Mikolai and Professor Hill Kulu have been studying the interrelationship between partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and their descendants in the UK. They have found that family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts. Here we take a closer look at some of the emerging research from the MigrantLife project.
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n many European countries, the share of immigrants and their descendants has increased. In the UK, for example, the share of foreign-born individuals has grown from 8 per cent of the population in 2004 to 14 per cent in 2019 (Office for National Statistics, 2019). Demographic research on immigrant families in Europe has also grown significantly over this period. Whether immigrants exhibit partnership patterns similar to the native-born, and whether and how partnership patterns differ across migrant generations, have become key questions of this research. Previously, studies have analysed partnership changes and fertility separately, but in their recent study, Dr Mikolai and Professor Kulu have used a multistate event-
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history approach, which allows for the joint analysis of repeated partnership and fertility transitions and the incorporation of different ‘clocks’. No previous study has been done in this way. The findings show that partnership and fertility behaviors among European immigrants and their descendants are similar to that of natives (defined as UK-born with two UK-born parents): many live together first and then have children and/or marry. Those from South Asian countries tend to marry first and then have children. Women from the Caribbean region have the most varied partnership and fertility patterns: some have births outside unions, some form a union and have children afterwards.
Dr Mikolai comments: “Family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts. Our findings highlight that families in the UK come in all shapes and sizes. Policymakers need to recognise this diversity and develop policies that will support the wellbeing of different families.” This research forms part of the MigrantLife project which investigates how employment, housing and family trajectories evolve and interact in the lives of immigrants and their descendants in the UK, France, Germany and Sweden. It also examines how differences in societal context, early life and critical transitions shape life histories. The project aims to show whether differences between and within immigrant and minority groups vanish over time or rather persist,
suggesting an increasing diversity of European societies. CPC Co-Director, Professor Hill Kulu, is the project’s lead: “Support from the European Research Council provides the opportunity to answer one of the fundamental questions in migration research in industrialised countries – whether the current differences observed between immigrants and natives in employment, housing and family patterns are shortterm outcomes in a long-term process of cultural and economic integration, or rather reflections of different pathways and outcomes for immigrants and their descendants.” He continues: “The intra-group variation in marriage patterns among the Caribbean population in the UK provides a good
example. It is unclear whether these variances reflect cultural diversity or socioeconomic inequalities; and whether it is a temporary phase in the long-term cultural and economic integration or rather a sign of persisting socio-ethnic segments within British society.” You can follow updates from the project on Twitter @MigrantLife_ERC
Further reading The intersection of partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom: A multilevel multistate event history approach (MigrantLife Working Paper 3) First comes marriage or first comes carriage? Family trajectories for immigrants in Germany (MigrantLife Working Paper 4)
Family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts. Our findings highlight that families in the UK come in all shapes and sizes. Policymakers need to recognise this diversity and develop policies that will support the well-being of different families.
Family behavior of migrants: An overview (MigrantLife Working Paper 2) Interaction between childbearing and partnership changes among immigrants and their descendants: An application of multichannel sequence analysis to longitudinal data from France (MigrantLife Working Paper 1)
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Helping ONS improve population estimation CPC researchers have been informing the new methodology used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), by helping them to adapt to the challenges of measuring changes in the UK population during the Covid-19 pandemic. Understanding how the population is changing is a crucial part of the work of ONS. Their statistics inform decision-makers in the central and local government, and provide the public with an overview of our population.
important insights on the size and age structure of the UK using the latest available data. These provided an initial view of how the population was changing in the year to mid-2020, which includes the first part of the pandemic. Counter to some external expectations that the population fell, these estimates showed the UK population grew – by around 0.5% – although this did mark one of the smallest increases seen on record. In the official population estimates released on 25 June 2021, we estimated that the UK population in the year to June 2020 was 67.1m, an increase of 0.4% over the past year which is the slowest growth since 2001. The effect of the pandemic on mortality can largely explain the slowing of the growth rate between 2019 and 2020.”
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embers of CPC’s Modelling strand, including Professors Peter W F Smith and Jakub Bijak, Dr Erengul Dodd and Dr Jason Hilton, have been meeting with ONS to advise on measuring uncertainty in population and migration estimates, and on assessing the impact of shocks, for example the Covid-19 pandemic, on mortality forecasts. The study team have also met with the ONS and Public Health England (PHE) to discuss their work using the ONS weekly mortality statistics to estimate excess mortality due to Covid-19. They have been comparing current PHE methods with a novel, dedicated method of estimation developed at the CPC. Alongside this, the CPC team have been working on methodology to estimate migration without an International Passenger Survey (IPS). The IPS collects information about passengers entering and leaving the UK, and has been running continuously since 1961, but was suspended between March 2020 and January 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic. The CPC study team have been investigating short-, mid- and long-term solutions to estimating UK migration
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flows based on administrative data. These estimates will ultimately feed into official UK population estimates, and will help transform migration statistics based on administrative data in the future. Professors Smith and Bijak and Drs Dodd and Hilton, along with CPC associate, Professor Jon Forster, also worked with the ONS to develop state-space models to estimate UK international migration and to make innovative use of the available data sources and methods. The methods and findings were published in the ONS report ‘Using statistical modelling to estimate UK international migration’, with the provisional modelled estimates suggesting that the total net migration was negative from April to June 2020, with more people leaving the UK than arriving. Still, the findings also emphasised large uncertainty around these numbers and trends, since it is not possible to accurately quantify international migration during that unprecedented period. Richard Pereira, Head of the ONS Centre for Ageing and Demography, commented: “In April, we published early indicators of the UK population, which provided
The latest official ONS population estimates for mid-year 2020, providing more detailed statistics on the size and structure of the population by age, sex and local area, are now available on the ONS website.
Further reading Meeting the challenges in population estimation (National Statistical, ONS blog) Population estimates for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2020 (ONS Population Estimates) How many people live in the UK? (National Statistical, ONS blog) Using statistical modelling to estimate UK international migration (ONS Working Paper) Early indicators of UK population size and age structure: 2020 (ONS Population Estimates)
Sandwich generation feels the pressure during the coronavirus pandemic The sandwich generation – those supporting both children and parents – are facing heightened emotional and financial pressures during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to CPC and Centre for Research on Ageing researchers.
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s our population ages, it is increasingly common for people, particularly in mid-life, to be supporting older children, while also providing informal care for family or friends. These dual-carers often provide informal care for others as well as carrying out paid employment. The Covid-19 pandemic has intensified the responsibilities of these individuals, and brought new challenges for those ‘in the middle’. Research by Professors Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham, Athina Vlachantoni and Dr Min Qin found that people whose living arrangements have changed because of the Covid-19 pandemic are more likely
to experience increased stress and family conflict than those whose living arrangements have not changed. In their previous international research, they also found that in China, “the state remains predominantly dependent on the family for the delivery of care for older people and infants”, with Chinese mid-life individuals aged 45–64 potentially being ‘sandwiched’ between providing care to older parents/parents-in-law and/or younger grandchildren. We are now seeing this trend in other countries across the world. Around 7 million (or one in ten) people in the UK are informal carers, according to the Carers Trust. CPC has been carrying out research into the pressures on carers
and more specifically the ‘sandwich generation’, finding that, even before Covid-19 they faced emotional and financial pressures, and diminishing social interactions. This has been made worse by the pandemic, with the Carers Trust stating that “coronavirus has significantly exacerbated burnout among unpaid carers.” An April 2020 Carers UK survey into the experiences of over 5,000 current and former unpaid carers found that “the coronavirus crisis is having a profound impact on carers’ lives. Many of those who responded were providing very high levels of care, or juggling care in complex lives.” A follow-up report in October 2020 found
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that 4 in 5 unpaid carers were providing more care than before the pandemic, with more than half of carers seeing their physical health impacted by caring through the pandemic, and 64 per cent saying their mental health has worsened. With this upsurge in pressure on carers, CPC researchers are working to unpick the impact of coronavirus. One area they are investigating is how living arrangements have changed due to pandemic lockdowns. Where people were only providing occasional care and support before the pandemic, they may have been unexpectedly placed in a situation where they are living, albeit temporarily, with those they care for. Or it may be more difficult to provide care due to lockdown restrictions and having to live apart with very little contact to protect those who are vulnerable and shielding.
Further reading
Younger people were more likely than older people to have changed their living arrangements – this has usually meant moving back in with their parents. These households were more likely to report higher levels of stress.
Why the ‘sandwich generation’ is so stressed out (BBC Worklife) Changing living arrangements and family conflict in lockdown (CPC Policy Briefing 58) Social participation and health outcomes among carers in Great Britain (CPC Policy Briefing 47)
The findings show that younger people were more likely than older people to have changed their living arrangements – this has usually meant moving back in with their parents. These households were more likely to report higher levels of stress. This in turn has important implications for public health and wider policy as prolonged periods of stress can lead to serious health problems. There is also a gendered aspect to the caring responsibilities faced by many in mid-life. People in mid-life who have caring responsibilities are more likely to reduce the amount of paid work they do so that they can provide care if they are female, single, are in lower paid employment, have poor health themselves and have frequent contact with their parents. “In general, we know women are more likely to provide more intensive personal care to older relatives than men, with men providing support for practical tasks including finance and gardening,” explains Professor Vlachantoni. The isolation caused by lockdown restrictions may also be disproportionately impacting carers. Not being in a position to socialise or access local support or
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respite services outside the home could add further challenges for carers. Among carers, time, energy and finances are the main barriers to social participation. A 2019 survey by Carers UK found 72% of carers reported mental health problems and 61% said they had physical health problems as a result of caring. However, further CPC research has found that social participation can potentially alleviate the adverse effects of care provision. While Covid-19 may have narrowed the options for carers to socialise, a positive outcome is that the pandemic has begun to normalise flexible working. This could increase understanding of the pressures carers are under from employers, families and friends. “I’ve always found that effective policy tools are the ones that give individuals real choice,” reflects Professor Vlachantoni. “Looking to the future, my hope is that employers and the government will recognise the often ‘hidden’ life outside of the workplace, where many people are juggling multiple caring responsibilities, and create policies and working conditions which support individuals in their roles, and ultimately support our ageing society as a whole.”
Informal caring in mid-life and its economic consequences (CPC Policy Briefing 46) Who cares? Continuity and change in the prevalence of caring, and characteristics of informal carers, in England and Wales 2001- 2011 (CPC Working Paper 68) Changing living arrangements, family dynamics and stress during lockdown: evidence from four birth cohorts in the UK (SocArXiv) Time for care: exploring time use by carers of older people (Ageing & Society) Caught in the middle in mid-life: provision of care across multiple generations (Ageing & Society) Intergenerational flows of support between parents and adult children in Britain (Ageing & Society) Caring behind closed doors: Forgotten families in the coronavirus outbreak (Carers UK) Caring Behind Closed Doors: six months on (Carers UK)
CPC Director on ITV News coronavirus podcast Last year, we reported on a CPC study that found the Covid-19 pandemic has caused sleeping difficulties for women with young children, key workers and people of Black, Asian and minority ethnic heritage. The study, initially carried out in 2020 during the first four months of the pandemic, has since been widely reported and cited across news articles, stemming from its coverage in The Guardian in July 2020 in the article ‘Coronavirus lockdown caused sharp increase of insomnia in UK’. The project’s lead, CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, appeared on the ITV News podcast ‘Coronavirus: What you need to know’ in February 2021 to discuss the research further with presenter, Lucrezia Millarini, and James Wilson – aka The Sleep Geek - a sleep behaviour and environment expert.
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onducted by Professor Falkingham and a team from CPC and the Centre for Research on Ageing, the analysis used survey data from the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study collected between April and July 2020. It was then compared with survey data collected in 2018/19. The first lockdown led to a rise in the number of people suffering sleeping problems from one in six (15.7%) of the sample to one in four (24.7%). The study revealed that sleep loss is affecting more people during the Covid-19 pandemic, reflecting rising stress levels due to anxieties about health, financial consequences, changes in social life and daily routine, all of which may affect sleep. Sleep deprivation can have knock-on effects for physical and mental health. As Professor Falkingham says in the podcast: “It’s the combination of factors, so if you’re a woman, from a black or minority ethnic group and with small children, you are three times more likely to suffer sleep loss.” Speaking about potential causes of anxiety and stress leading to sleep loss, Professor Falkingham commented: “As we moved into the summer, those differentials [around anxiety about getting ill or dying from Covid-19] seemed to narrow a bit, and actually it was the combination of home schooling and home working that really seemed to kick in. It was actually very stressful to be doing all of those things. For many women in particular, if they were caring for children during the day, and then they’re doing their work, they’ve displaced their activities. So they’re actually starting to creep into doing activities late at night.”
The study team have been examining further waves of the Understanding Society COVID-19 survey to understand the continuing effects of the pandemic on sleeplessness and plan to update their findings in the coming months. You can listen to the recording wherever you get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts and Spotify - or listen using the ITV News web player.
Further reading Who’s been losing sleep during lockdown? (CPC Policy Briefing 55) Sleepless in Lockdown: unpacking differences in sleep loss during the coronavirus pandemic in the UK (medRxiv) ‘Sleepless in Lockdown’: unpacking differences in sleep loss during the coronavirus pandemic in the UK (The Lancet SSRN) Coronavirus lockdown caused sharp increase of insomnia in UK (The Guardian) COVID-19: mental health and wellbeing surveillance report’ (Public Health England) Coronavirus (COVID-19): impact on children, young people and families evidence summary September 2020’ (Scottish Government)
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New ABM course materials available Materials for our virtual short course - ‘Agent-based modelling for social science research’ - are now available on the NCRM website. Last year, CPC researchers worked with colleagues at the Universities of Southampton and Rostock to deliver our first virtual training course, aiming to familiarise participants with the most recent advances in building, analysing and documenting agent-based models of social processes. In collaboration with the National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM), we recently made the videos available online to all for free.
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he content includes videos, presentations and supporting materials, such as slides, transcripts and reading lists. The course is aimed particularly at PhD level students and early career researchers, with some prior experience with coding and interest in computational modelling in social science. During the course, participants will cover aspects related to the choice of modelling language and environment, tailoring models for specific research purposes, statistical analysis of model results and key principles of experimental design, inclusion of realistic cognitive assumptions in models, and documenting the modelling endeavours by using a variety of approaches. In Block 1, Jakub Bijak, Martin Hinsch and Andre Grow introduce Modelling, AgentBased Modelling (ABM) and the Treatment of Time in ABM. In Block 2, Sarah Nurse, Jakub Bijak, Jason Hilton and Toby Prike cover Data Quality Assessment, Model Analysis UQ and Psychological Experiments. In the final Block, Andre Grow and Adeline Uhrmacher explore Documentation of Agent-Based Models and Provenance for Simulation Studies. The course was organised as a part of the research project Bayesian AgentBased Population Studies, funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement 725232).
Course materials Agent-based modelling for social research (NCRM website) Keynote lecture on ABM with Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz (Youtube)
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FemQuant: Bringing together feminist research and quantitative methods CPC researcher Dr Heini Väisänen is one of the coordinators of FemQuant, a network of researchers across the social sciences, along with the co-founders Dr Rose Cook and Dr Jenny Chanfreau, as well as Dr Sara Rose Taylor and Ms Youngcho Lee. like to problematise how much of current quantitative research tends to operationalise ‘gender’ as a binary variable with male and female representing fixed and oppositional classification. Please visit the FemQuant website for registration details.
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he goal of the FemQuant network is to explore the ways in which researchers are using feminist theory and motivations in current quantitative, empirical research across the social sciences, including sociology, economics, demography, social policy, psychology, health, and international relations. The network is a collaborative and supportive space where the difficulties, tensions and complexities inherent in combining feminism and quantitative methods can be explored and debated. The network produces blogs, reading lists, and hosts events including a monthly webinar series. They welcome blog post submissions on feminist or gender-related research using quantitative research methods. They are also hosting a one-day virtual conference (via Zoom) on 6 September 2021, inviting researchers to discuss and debate the possibilities of a feminist quantitative social science, and to learn from each other’s successes and difficulties in integrating feminist theory with quantitative methods. In particular, they would
Dr Väisänen is well placed to act as coordinator of the network; her research focuses on sexual and reproductive health and rights in different parts of the world. She is affiliated with the fertility and family strand of CPC. She works as a researcher at the Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques (INED, France), and as a part-time Lecturer in Social Statistics and Demography within the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Southampton. One of her research projects focuses on the link between health literacy and safe use of misoprostol for abortion in Nigeria. The study explores whether health literacy was associated with being able to use misoprostol to end a pregnancy safely and successfully in Lagos state, Nigeria, where abortions are legally only allowed to save a woman’s life. The findings were recently published in the journal ‘Studies in Family Planning’ and on the FemQuant blog. In June, she was awarded the BSPS Early Career award 2021 and will give a plenary as the winner at the upcoming BSPS conference in September.
Register for FemQuant events through the Eventbrite page or keep in touch by joining the FemQuant mailing list and following their account on Twitter and the hashtag: #FemQuantSeminar.
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New projects and funding Professor Brienna PerelliHarris, Dr Olga Maslovskaya and Professor Ann Berrington at the University of Southampton have been successful in gaining ESRC funding for a new project which aims to better understand how young and mid-life adults in the UK are transitioning to adulthood, forming partnerships and families, and coping with recent economic, social, and political uncertainty. To achieve this, the study team will collect high quality data using the UK Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), part of a global data collection infrastructure focused on population and family dynamics. This project proposes to collect the UK version of the nationally representative, longitudinal GGS, which has never before been conducted in the UK, omitting the UK from many cross-national comparisons. The GGS is one of the main outputs of the Generations and Gender Programme (GGP), an international Research
Professor Alison Bowes at the University of Stirling is leading a new project called ‘Designing homes for healthy cognitive ageing (DesHCA)’. The aim of the project is to identify scalable and sustainable design improvements to homes which provide support for healthy cognitive ageing, enabling us, as we age, to continue living in our preferred environments as we experience cognitive change. DesHCA is funded by the UKRI Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund under the Healthy Ageing Social, Behavioural and Design Research Programme.
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Infrastructure supported by the European Commission. Over the past 20 years, the GGP has collected survey data in 25 countries in Europe and beyond. The GGP has recently launched a new round of surveys, called GGS2020, to understand how families have been changing over the past two decades. The survey has the flexibility to implement UK-specific questions, for example attitudes towards Brexit. The UK GGS data collection will also be a unique resource for understanding how people are coping with the fall-out from the virus, as well as the longer-term impact on demographic behaviour. Professor Perelli-Harris comments: “Family life in the UK has been rapidly changing over the past decades. At the same time, economic and political uncertainty has increased, impacting employment stability and social mobility. The recent Covid-19 epidemic has placed an unprecedented strain on families, by limiting economic resources, reorganising how families care for their children, and temporarily halting social life. Young adults have been particularly hard hit, with a higher percent facing unemployment, difficulties with housing, and economic precarity. These new conditions raise questions about how young and middle-aged adults are forming
Professor Bowes said, “Older people are integral to DesHCA and their health is at its heart. We know that people’s homes can make the experience of cognitive changes more difficult, or can enable continuing inclusion and a sense of selfworth and self-esteem. “This project brings together a multidisciplinary team involving stakeholders from all areas of housing provision, including people experiencing ageing and cognitive change, architects and designers, housing experts, planners, builders and housing providers, to identify housing innovations that can support living better for longer with cognitive change.” The project will design and build virtual and real living spaces that will act as demonstrators and test-beds for innovations to support healthy cognitive ageing. These designs will be evaluated from stakeholder points of view, then considered at a larger scale to examine
families, maintaining partnerships, and making decisions about childbearing.” She continues: “The UK GGS will fill a gap in internationally comparable information about early adulthood and mid-life (ages 18-59), which will complement and supplement existing UK data sources. Current data sources do not capture the complexity of family events, or miss those born throughout the late 1970s, 80s, and 90s who have been experiencing the most intense employment and family changes, or underrepresent lone mothers, separating, and blended families. The UK therefore lacks a comprehensive source of data to examine families in the new millennium; our new project will address these shortfalls and enable us to examine emerging social challenges.” Besides data collection, the project will include a methodological work package to provide insights into the accuracy of online data collection, allowing for design and implementation improvements. There will also be a demographic work package focussing on reproductive intentions, fertility treatments, miscarriages, and abortions throughout Covid-19, shedding light on whether the UK will experience a baby boom or bust.
their real-world feasibility. DesHCA has a unique opportunity to feed directly into the UK and Scottish Government City Region Deal for Central Scotland (Stirling and Clackmannanshire), providing groundwork for local housing developments. The focus of this is sustainable, lifetime health, community and economic development, which addresses deprivation and inequality. Professor Bowes added, “DesHCA’s aim is to identify home design improvements which enable people to continue living in their preferred environments through changes such as significant cognitive impairment and dementia diagnoses. “In the longer term, the project will guide improvements to existing housing and provide tools for future developers to inform their decisions about housing, with a view to meeting the needs of the world’s ageing population.”
CPC webinars The 2020/21 CPC webinar series got off to a flying start, with many embracing the new online format and all webinars being well-attended. Since the start of the new semester in October 2020, we have hosted 18 CPC webinars from our sites in Southampton and Scotland. We have welcomed speakers from across the globe, and we have been able to welcome more attendees than before with travel no longer a barrier to attendance. Most of the webinars are now available to watch again on our YouTube channel, so do take a look if you missed out or would like to see the presentations again.
Webinars Carl Schmertmann, Florida State University Estimating total fertility from the shape of the age pyramid: Bayesian models and applications
Ben Wilson, Stockholm University and London School of Economics
Matthias Studer, University of Geneva
Understanding the lives of immigrants and their descendants: From selection to adaptation
The link between previous life trajectories and a later life outcome: A feature selection approach
Tom Alexis and Cecilia Macintyre, Scottish Government
Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Vienna Institute of Demography
Developing linkage ready data on Looked After Children for a new data linkage infrastructure in Scotland
An agent-based modelling approach to account for social interactions in demography. This keynote seminar formed part of the short course on Agent-based modelling for social research which ran in the autumn semester.
Sylwia Åukasik, Adam Mickiewicz University, and Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton Paleodemography of Black Sea Scythians
Reconsidered disadvantage in the United States: An intersectional analysis This was a CPC Athena Swan webinar held jointly with FemQuant.
Jamie Pearce, University of Edinburgh
Michaela Benzeval, University of Essex
Gunnar Andersson, Stockholm University
Emilio Zagheni, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and University of Washington
The spatial diffusion of nonmarital childbearing in Belgium (1968-2017)
A new look at the geography of housing careers in Great Britain
Dominique Green, University of St Andrews
Britain’s first demographic transition: an integrated geography
Yoann Doignon, UCLouvain, Centre for Demographic Research
A Bayesian cohort component projection model to estimate adult populations at the subnational level Rory Coulter, UCL
Alice Reid, University of Cambridge
Utilizing population register data to understand socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 mortality: The case of Sweden
Monica Alexander, University of Toronto
Understanding Society COVID-19 Study
Studying health and migration using social media: Tools for survey participant recruitment complement digital trace data Cecilia Vindrola, UCL Carrying out rapid qualitative research during a pandemic: Emerging lessons from COVID-19
Lifecourse of Place: how environments throughout life can support healthy ageing Peter Eibich, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Does retirement affect voluntary work provision?
Our upcoming webinars are listed on our events calendar, and you can follow us on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates. And if you are unable to attend the live sessions, do subscribe to our YouTube channel to be alerted when our new videos become available.
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Researcher spotlight CPC member Athina Vlachantoni celebrated for UN’s Women in Science Day
For others, the worry and uncertainty coupled with new caring responsibilities or living arrangements have caused stress, leading to lack of sleep and possible long-term physical and mental health implications. Professor Vlachantoni has been at the forefront of many of these new studies as a member of CPC and the Centre for Research on Ageing at the University of Southampton. As we have seen earlier in this edition, her research examines the roles of those in the ‘sandwich generation’ - those supporting both children and parents – as well as unpaid carers and how we can support people through longer lives and the intergenerational exchanges that are happening as a result. Below we find out more about her career and what it means to be a woman in science.
CPC member, Professor Athina Vlachantoni, is a Professor of Gerontology and Social Policy at the University of Southampton. In February, she was interviewed by the Southampton Daily Echo as part of the celebrations for the United Nations’ (UN) International Day of Women and Girls in Science. Set up by the UN in 2015, 11 February marks the annual celebration of the critical role women and girls play in science and technology. The day also recognises that women and girls continue to be excluded from participating fully in science, with women making up less than 30 per cent of researchers worldwide. According to UNESCO data (2014 - 2016), only around 30 per cent of all female students select STEM-related fields (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) in higher education. The aim of marking this day is to help achieve full and equal access to and participation in science for women and girls, and further realise gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls. This year’s theme for Women in Science Day was Women Scientists at the forefront of the fight against Covid-19. Many of our CPC researchers have changed their research focus since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, investigating what the pandemic restrictions have meant for UK families. Covid-19 lockdowns have seen families living in ways never before experienced. For some, more time together seems to have improved relationships between partners and with their children, providing a welcome positive outcome from the crisis.
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Welcome Athina, can you please explain your role? I am Professor of Gerontology and Social Policy at the University of Southampton. Gerontology is the study of ageing over the life course, and social policy is about individuals’ and families’ needs in society and how the welfare state can address them. My day-to-day work is a combination of teaching, research and administration. I teach postgraduate students and supervise PhD students. I work alone and with colleagues to examine key research questions in several areas related to areas like informal care provision, health inequalities, pension protection among minority ethnic groups, intergenerational support and social care. And I have a number of senior administrative roles, for example I am Director of Programmes for the Department of Gerontology, and also Director of a partnership between Southampton, Brighton and Portsmouth Universities, which awards MSc and PhD scholarships every year. What do you love most about the work you do? There are two bits of my work that I really like, and both of them have to do with working with other people. I love working with colleagues, for example in research. Being part of a research team means that the team collectively draws on different people’s strengths, and that’s really rewarding when we are successful. For example, one of the teams I work with was recently awarded a national prize by the Economic and Social Research Council, who fund much of our research, for the
impact of our research work on society. This was one of the top three highlights of my career so far. Belonging to a team also helps when we are not successful, because we can reflect on what we can improve together, and come back stronger, whether it is an article or grant rejection. And I love working with students – literally every single time I teach, I am learning something new. What is it like being a woman in science – and what has changed since you started? I am a woman in social science, which I think is quite different from being a woman in the natural sciences. I have been part of all-women teams, and part of teams where I was the only woman. I genuinely think that individuals’ personalities and ways of working are more important than their gender. I think probably the only difference, and it’s a big one, is that I have seen more women openly juggling their work with caring responsibilities, and being more vocal about their rights and challenges. Men do a lot of caring too, but they are less vocal about it, and I think that’s something that has been changing since I started. I also think that social sciences are far less hierarchical than when I started, there is more space for established views to be challenged, and that’s a good thing. What advice would you give to any young girl or woman looking to get into the field? My key piece of advice would be to speak to people who are one step ahead in their career (as opposed to a decade ahead), in order to get different views about what is needed for that next step. What are the costs and what are the benefits? This is especially important at key points of the life course when one’s career has to be juggled alongside other things, like investing in a relationship, trying for a family or caring for different people in one’s family.
This interview is an excerpt from an article in The Southern Daily Echo, published 11 February 2021.
International Women’s Day 2021 International Women’s Day is an annual celebration of the social, economic, cultural, and political achievements of women, held annually on 8 March. The theme of the UN’s International Women’s Day for 2021 was “Choose to Challenge”, representing the need to challenge global gender bias and inequality.
Jackline Wahba OBE is a Professor of Economics at the University of Southampton and one of the leading voices on the economics of migration. She was awarded an OBE for services to Economic Policy in the Queen’s Birthday Honours for 2020. measurement of international student migration in government statistics. In 2020, Professor Wahba was part of a research team from CPC that won the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize for Outstanding Public Policy Impact. The award recognised the Centre’s outstanding contributions to public policy which have improved estimates of the current and future population of the UK. These improvements have provided national and local policymakers, planners and businesses with better evidence for policies and services.
At CPC, we are dedicated to empowering women in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) to achieve their goals and to highlight research that can improve the lives of women around the world. From our female-led senior management team, to lobbying policymakers about issues that disproportionately affect women, we hope to balance gender inequality. Issues affecting women do not exist in a vacuum but impact all aspects of our society. By highlighting gender imbalances, we can ensure policymakers are equipped with the knowledge to improve society for everyone. To celebrate this year’s International Women’s Day, we focussed on the achievements of CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, and CPC’s migration strand joint co-ordinator, Professor Jackline Wahba OBE. Both have been recognised as Officers of the Order of the British Empire (OBE), a prestigious award as part of the British honours system, recognising people who have made achievements in public life or who have committed themselves to serving and helping Britain.
Professor Wahba has overcome gender barriers to lead in a male dominated subject. Through her ground-breaking research, she has highlighted the contribution of migrants, both in the destination country and also in their country of origin. Her work has been instrumental in shaping the narrative around the positive role of migrants and migration. Since achieving her PhD in Economics from the University of Southampton, she has remained with the University throughout her academic career, building her scientific standing as well as that of the University’s economics department. Her cutting-edge research on the economics of migration has highlighted the value of skilled migrants to the UK and other nations alongside the vital role remittances play in the well-being of those ‘left behind’. Most recently, Professor Wahba has been working with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Universities UK (UUK), helping them to understand the post-study intentions of graduating international students. This work has helped to refine the
Since 2012, Professor Wahba has used her expertise as a member of the government’s Migration Advisory Committee (MAC). The MAC is an independent public body that advises the government on migration issues and is sponsored by the Home Office. She has also advised national governments and international organisations, including the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Development and Co-operation, the International Labour Organisation, the International Organisation for Migration, the European Training Foundation and the European Commission. She was also recently elected as a member of the Council of the Royal Economic Society. As well as a professor for the University of Southampton, Jackie is a member of the ESRC Centre for Population Change, a research fellow of the Economic Research Forum (ERF), the Centre for Research & Analysis of Migration (CReAM) and the IZA Institute of Labour Economics. She is also a member of the Expert Advisory Board for the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.
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Much of the research undertaken as part of CPC focusses on issues affecting women – here is a selection of some our recent research: Jane Falkingham OBE is a Professor of Demography and International Social Policy at the University of Southampton. She is also Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Southampton, and Director of the ESRC Centre for Population Change. She was awarded an OBE for services to Social Science in the Queen’s Birthday Honours for 2015.
Gender attitudes and practices among married and cohabiting parents Compared to married counterparts, cohabitors tend to be more liberal in their attitudes towards gender roles. However, cohabiting households also tend to be less affluent and therefore they often have no choice in how they divide household responsibilities due to expensive childcare or employment conditions. Teenage pregnancy Declining rates of teenage pregnancies in England are related to local areas experiencing less youth unemployment, growing Black or South Asian teenage populations, more educational attainment, unaffordable housing, and a lack of available social housing. Households where the woman is the sole earner are significantly poorer The ESRC research project ‘Female Breadwinner Families in Europe’ has been shedding light on the economic characteristics of femalebreadwinner couples using data from the Luxembourg Income Study.
Through her research, Professor Falkingham has changed the discourse on women and older people. Her work has actively highlighted the positive role women play in society as daughters, mothers, partners and employees, as well as demonstrating the often overlooked contribution of older people. Her work pursues a multidisciplinary research agenda combining social policy and population studies, and spanning both developed and developing countries. Much of it focusses on the social policy implications of population ageing and demographic change, and what this means for the distribution of social and economic welfare. As well as studying UK population, she is also involved in widereaching international research including projects on ageing and resilience in the slums of Nairobi, poverty and transition in Central Asia and on migration and the wellbeing of children and older people ‘left behind’ in China and South Africa. Professor Falkingham’s career story is particularly inspiring given
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the gender and class barriers she has faced; she grew up in a single parent household in a deprived area and has gone on to have an esteemed career, holding leadership roles at a Russell Group university. She spent the first 21 years of her academic career at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). She joined the University of Southampton in 2002 as a Professor, becoming Head of the School of Social Sciences in 2010 and Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences in 2014. She is a part of the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Executive Committee as a member of the Economic and Social Research Council, and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and the Royal Society of Arts. In 2018 she was elected President of the European Association of Population Studies (EAPS). She was President of the British Society for Population Studies between 2015 and 2017. In 2020, Professor Falkingham and her team from CPC won the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize for Outstanding Public Policy Impact. The award recognised her work as Director of CPC since 2009, and the Centre’s outstanding contributions to public policy.
Estimating fertility Fertility is the most important of the three components for determining global population change. Demographers have known for decades that the total fertility rate, a measure used to calculate the number of children a woman would have in her lifetime, has been declining around the world. Furlough makes couples’ relationships stronger The UK government’s furlough scheme has allowed many couples the time and flexibility for a better work-life balance, strengthening their relationships. Covid-19 spells trouble for millions of couples as study finds unemployment damages relationships Spells of unemployment can damage romantic relationships in both the short- and long- term, and are particularly disruptive for women. Abortion as telemedicine consultation During the Covid-19 epidemic, the UK government temporarily approved the use of medication abortion (that is, inducing an abortion using mifepristone and misoprostol pills) at home after a telephone or online consultation with a clinician. CPC researcher Heini Väisänen is part of the team of abortion research experts who have researched that the introduction of telemedicine has been beneficial and should be continued.
PhD Spotlight Joanne Ellison is a Senior Research Assistant at the University of Southampton. She works within the CPC modelling strand, as well as on the project “Understanding recent fertility trends in the UK and improving methodologies for fertility forecasting” in the fertility and family strand. Joanne recently passed her PhD viva for her research on stochastic modelling and fertility forecasting. She is supervised by CPC members and associates, Professor Ann Berrington and Dr Erengul Dodd at the University of Southampton, and Professor Jon Forster at the University of Warwick. “I am a recent PhD student within the Statistics group in the Mathematics department at the University of Southampton. Since March, I have been working as a Senior Research Assistant in the Department of Social Statistics and Demography, working in the CPC modelling strand and on the FertilityTrends project. This is a joint project between the Universities of Southampton and St Andrews, looking at explaining and predicting changes in fertility patterns in the UK. My research interests are in demographic modelling and forecasting, with a particular focus on fertility. My PhD research involved developing Bayesian projection models for age-specific fertility rates that appropriately account for all sources of uncertainty, incorporate multiple data sources at different levels (such as survey data and vital statistics), and make use of state-ofthe-art computational methodology.
In my current postdoctoral role, I have been working with the CPC modelling team on developing a projection model for weekly mortality that incorporates annual trends - we are using the model to learn about excess mortality and to inform ONS, which is particularly important in light of the Covid-19 pandemic. I have also worked with the FertilityTrends team on a project exploring the potential impact of Covid-19 on fertility over the next few years, through hypothesising scenarios for the effect of the pandemic on childbearing at different ages. The resulting projections could have significant implications for the planning and future provision of childcare and maternity services, as well as school places. I am about to begin working on the fourth work package of the FertilityTrends project, developing fertility forecasting methodology that makes use of the findings of the other work packages to investigate the determinants of recent changes in UK fertility. Fertility projections are a key driver of population projections, which are vital for informing the work of government policymakers and planners. It is very exciting to be investigating ways in which we can obtain more reliable fertility forecasts, as this has the potential to improve decision-making at the highest level. Being affiliated with the CPC as a PhD student, and now working as part of the CPC research team as a staff member, has helped me in many ways. Practically, for example, through providing office space
and funding attendance at conferences. Academically, through attending and presenting at modelling strand meetings, and in this way learning and developing with the support and guidance of experts in demographic modelling; and also through the opportunities to broaden my knowledge at CPC seminars. Professionally, CPC membership has helped me build relationships with CPC members at the partner universities, and external organisations such as the Office for National Statistics. I am extremely grateful for CPC’s support, and the positive impact that being a member of the team has had on my development as an early career researcher.”
Further reading Forecasting of cohort fertility under a hierarchical Bayesian approach (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Statistics in Society, Series A) Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19 (CPC Working Paper 95)
PhD congratulations Congratulations to Lisa Davison, Joanne Ellison and Francesco Rampazzo who passed their PhD vivas. Lisa’s thesis involved quantitative, secondary data analysis of informal caregivers and loneliness in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Lisa has recently joined Alison Bowes, Alasdair Rutherford and Alison Dawson on the Designing Homes for Healthy Cognitive Ageing (DesHCA) project at the University of Stirling.
Joanne’s PhD topic was stochastic modelling and forecasting of fertility rates. She has recently joined the CPC modelling strand and FertilityTrends project working with Ann Berrington, Jakub Bijak, and Hill Kulu.
Francesco’s work, entitled ‘Following a trail of breadcrumbs: A study of migration through digital traces’, explores the possibilities offered by digital demography. Francesco is now based at the Oxford Future of Marketing Initiative and Leverhulme Center for Demographic Science as a Career Development Fellow in Marketing and Consumer Demography.
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Keep in touch! To discover more about our work, visit the CPC website: www.cpc.ac.uk To subscribe to the CPC newsletter and keep up-to-date with research activity, news and events, please register at: www.cpc.ac.uk/news/newsletter For our latest research updates you can also follow CPC on Twitter @CPCpopulation and find us on Facebook, Scoop.it! and YouTube T: +44 (0)23 8059 2579 E: cpc@soton.ac.uk Editors Becki Dey Teresa McGowan ESRC Centre for Population Change University of Southampton Image credits iStock.com/miljko iStock.com/middelveld iStock.com/PhotoBeto iStock.com/FilippoBacci iStock.com/Stas-Bejsov iStock.com/FGTrade iStock.com/LeoPatrizi iStock.com/marvinh iStock.com/VVShots iStock.com/nensuria
