SETC Social Science Update Brian Vander Naald
23 October
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Things are changing
1. Cryosphere 2. Temperature and precipitation patterns 3. Estuarine food web productivity 4. Salmon run timing
Vander Naald
2/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Natural Scientists
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Vander Naald
Understand how climate dynamics influence the spatial-temporal variability of key ecosystem indicators: ice, freshwater hydroecology, estuarine productivity, and floodplain forest
3/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Social Scientists
1. Understand the values of, and consequences for, the ecosystem services associated with these indicators 2. Evaluate the capacities of resource-managers and nature-based tourism operators to perceive, project and respond to changes in these services.
Vander Naald
4/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Experiment
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See how individuals collectively make decisions in the presence of uncertainty.
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Use game previously developed to measure collective behavior in forestry.
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Adapt to measure collect behavior in a fishery.
Vander Naald
5/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Evening @ Egan on Friday
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Begin with a “fishery� and a group of participants.
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Collect sociodemographic information (income, education level, ethnicity, etc.)
Vander Naald
6/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Evening @ Egan on Friday
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Begin with a “fishery� and a group of participants.
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Collect sociodemographic information (income, education level, ethnicity, etc.)
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Allow the group to harvest a certain number of fish each period with uncertain regeneration (randomized with toss of a 10-sided die).
Vander Naald
6/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Information and Shocks
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After a few rounds, introduce information about “normal� variation in regeneration rates.
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Only give information to test groups. Control groups are those who do not receive information.
Vander Naald
7/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Information and Shocks
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After a few rounds, introduce information about “normal” variation in regeneration rates.
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Only give information to test groups. Control groups are those who do not receive information.
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After a few more rounds, hit the fishery with an exogenous shock – such as regulation or bad fishery year – and see how groups react – especially interesting to see if those with information about normal variation react differently than those who don’t have that information.
Vander Naald
7/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Outcomes
1. Control and treatment groups: allow us to test for how individuals use (or don’t use) information. 2. Normal bounds of variation: shows difference between perceived reality and actual reality. 3. Exogenous shock: how groups react to unforeseen events. 4. Information about how to tweak experiment in future.
Vander Naald
8/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Value of Changes in ES
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Vander Naald
Objective: Value welfare changes resulting from changes in ES.
9/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Ecosystem Services
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Vander Naald
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems�
10/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
System providing ES
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Vander Naald
Glacially-fed estuary
11/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
ES provided by the system
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ice
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salmon
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primary productivity
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ecosystem abundance
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alluvial forests
Vander Naald
12/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Definitions
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Ecosystem Services (ES): “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems” (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)
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Benefits from Environmental goods: “the economic benefit provided by an environmental good or service is the sum of what all member of society would be willing to pay for it.”
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Value (WTP): the contribution to an individual’s well-being from consumption of a good or service.
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⇒ Value of a change ES is the change in well-being of society associated with a change in ES.
Vander Naald
13/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
ES - definitional differences
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Boyd & Banzhaf 2007: “end-products of nature� I
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Polasky & Segerson 2009: broad definition including both intermediate and final services. I
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Vander Naald
ES 6= Benefits because other human-made goods must be used to extract benefit from ES. Under this definition, recreation is not an ES.
ES = Benefits because supporting services are like infrastructure used to combine inputs into intermediate and final goods. Under this definition, recreation is an ES.
14/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Measuring Value
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Vander Naald
Question: How does one measure the value of an ES when no direct market exists?
15/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Measuring Value
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Question: How does one measure the value of an ES when no direct market exists? Answer: 1. Survey 2. Related good for which a market exists
Vander Naald
15/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Measuring Value
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Question: How does one measure the value of an ES when no direct market exists? Answer: 1. Survey 2. Related good for which a market exists
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Vander Naald
ES: Ice field recreation
15/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Measuring Value
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Question: How does one measure the value of an ES when no direct market exists? Answer: 1. Survey 2. Related good for which a market exists
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ES: Ice field recreation
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Market: helicopter transportation to ice field
Vander Naald
15/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Helicopter transportation
Vander Naald
16/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Helicopter transportation Possible sources of data: I
Cryosphere: I I I
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USFS I I
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locations and spatial boundaries of landing zones # permits
Helicopter operators: I I
Vander Naald
annual mass/balance of glaciers regional estimates over longer time periods Satellite imagery (% of land mass covered in glacier)
Operator logs Revenue data
17/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Helicopter operators
Outfits & Activities: I
Coastal - dog sled tours
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Era - dog sled tours
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North Star - hiking
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Tempsco - hiking
Major determinants of where they land: I
Snow cover on ice field
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Ice melt caused by warm summers
Vander Naald
18/19
Introduction
Adaptive Capacity
ES & Value
Next...
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Run experiments
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Obtain data
Vander Naald
19/19