Focus Area: Berners Bay Issues / Drivers of Change Temperature and precipitation changes
Cryosphere decay Shifting freshwater hydroecology
Shifting estuarine food webs productivity
Successional changes & carbon re-allocation
Dispersed human footprint
Five-Year Objectives •
Environmental Change. Understand how climate dynamics influence the spatial-temporal variability of key ecosystem indicators: ice, freshwater hydroecology, estuarine productivity, and floodplain forest
•
Societal Consequences. Understand the values of, and consequences for, the ecosystem-services associated with these indicators
•
Adaptive Capacity. Evaluate the capacities of resource-managers and nature-based tourism operators to perceive, project and respond to changes in these services.
Strategic Plan Activities: Personnel Strategic Goal Build research team 2 grads and 6 undergrads Deploy sensor array & collect sensor data Compile extant biophysical data and analyze change Compile, collect and measure social data Downscale models and build and model future change Liaise with communities and share findings
Anticipated progress
Actual progress
2 new hires, 2 faculty startups, All faculty support complete; postdoc deferred to year 2. 1 seed award, 1 postdoc 5 grads, 4 undergrad interns 2 grads and 6 undergrads Sensor array implemented and Implement sensor array expanded 50% Establish data portal; create Created portals & archive, hydro-climate and imagery compilation ongoing archive Derive economic valuation data sources and protocols
Identified valuation sources, conducted focus group surveys
Preliminary work
Deployed sensors, initiated hydro-downscaling
Identify community nodes and Complete partnerships
Team Organization & Capacity Building Icefield-to-Estuary Coupling 5 faculty 3 students Seed Grant: Estuarine Food Web Diversity New Hire: Ecosystem Ecologist
Ecosystem Processes 6 faculty 2 students
New Hire: Water Resources Env. Engineer
Integrative Modeling & Analysis 3 faculty 2 students Post Doc: Integrative Modeler Startup: Nat Resource Economist
Ecosystem Services 7 faculty 2 students Startup: Environmental Sociologist
Research Partnerships Research Partner
Funding
Vermont EPSCoR Alaska Climate Science Center
Analytical
NASA
Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game
City and Borough of Juneau
The Nature Conservancy
Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning
Marine Exchange of Alaska
Instrument Leveraging
USGS Alaska Science Center US Forest Service
Data Acquisition
Community Nodes Connection to Industry
• Explore creation of joint database of nature-based tourism statistics • Engagement through graduate student project in ecosystem service valuation • Integrating ecosystem service symposium into 2014 JEDC Innovation Summit
Connection to Resource Management
• Established joint Outreach Coordinator position with EPSCoR • Hosting EPSCoR undergraduate research fellowship program • Co-led Glacier Consequences Workshop, March ’13
Icefield-to-Estuary Instrumentation Array
Data Portals
Synthesizing Knowledge to Date 2. Climate-downscaling and hydroecological conditions (Hydrological Processes & EcoHydrology) Observed Stream Temperature
1. Climate projections & ecosystem consequences (to Climatic Change)
Air Temperature – Generalized Climate Model 25 Auke Cr. (0%) Peterson Cr. (0%) Fish Cr. (0%) Montana Cr. (2%) Cowee Cr. (13%) Lemon Cr. (29%) Eagle R. (48%) Herbert R. (49%) Mendenhall R. (63%)
Stream temperature (°C)
20
15
10
5
0
Pyare, Brinkman, Hood, Tallmon, Wipfli & 3 external EPSCoR collaborators
0
20
40
60
80
100
% Time exceeded
Hood, Pyare, Nagorski
Synthesizing Knowledge to Date + Novel Data Acquisition 3. Spatio-temporal shifts in salmon runtiming (to Biology Letters)
Tallmon, Pyare
4. Community Composition of Nearshore Fishes Estuaries with Variable Glacial Input
Beaudreau, Whitney& Bergstom
Novel Data Acquisition 5. Glacial meltwater influence on estuarine groundfish communities
6. Marine Mammal Abundance & Distribution in Berner's Bay
Other Data Streams/Initiatives: Material transport (inverts, detritus) in glacial & non glacial watersheds
(Wipfli) Biogeochemistry of glacial and non-glacial streams & links to estuarine phytoplankton productivity (Nagorski/ Schroth) Contribution of glacier runoff to freshwater fluxes at the basin-scale (Arendt/Young) Temperature-elevation gradients for climate downscaling (Fredrick) Post-glacial disturbance dynamics in terrestrial systems (Buma) Nature-Based Tourism Perceptions of Climate Change (Timm) Adaptive Capacity of Natural Resource Management (Wright) Marginal Changes in the Ecosystem Service of Glaciers (Vander Naald) Climate Change Perception of Institutional Representatives (Powell)
Socio-Economic Data Sources (Empirical) Icefield Heli-Tourism Landing statistics from US Forest Service special use permits Operator logs Revenue data Marine Wildlife Tours Marine exchange vessel tracking data Operator logs Revenue data Freshwater Sport and Personal Use Fisheries Alaska Department of Fish and Game regional sportfish surveys (1977 - on) Harvest statistics Market pricing
Socio-Economic Data Sources (In Depth Surveys/Experimental) 

Initiated with climate-change perception survey to Juneau community Sub-focus on natural resource managers & nature-tourism operators