Research to go arp

RESEARCH TO GO – AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

A summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Table of Contents Modelling Ontario's Regulated Marketing Systems for Policy Analysis ....................................................... 0 The Fusion Youth and Technology Centre: An Assessment of an Integrated Rural Youth Development and Labour Force Development Strategy ............................................................................................................ 2 A Farmer Panel: A value-to-rent measure for Ontario farmland.................................................................. 4 Cost Competitiveness of Ontario Food Industries: Productivity and Capacity Utilization ........................... 6 Opportunities for Improved Efficiency in Water Use in Ontario Agriculture ............................................... 8 Spatial Stochastic Modeling of Water Use Efficiency in Ontario Agriculture ............................................. 10 Intermunicipal Collaboration: An Assessment of the Potential for Improving Delivery and Cost Effectiveness of Small, Rural Water Service Systems ................................................................................. 12 An evaluation of the implications of private water supply and waste water systems for Rural Ontario Municipalities .............................................................................................................................................. 14 An Evaluation Framework for Community Food Hubs ............................................................................... 16 Analysis of Variability within the Ontario Swine Sector ............................................................................. 18 Best Practices in the Use of Nature/Natural Systems to Create New Economic Activity and Rural Community Resilience................................................................................................................................. 21 Land Use Planning and Agriculture: Measuring Farmland Availability ....................................................... 24 Government Business Risk Management (BRM) Program Participation and the Threshold Effects of Repayment on Farm Business Survival ....................................................................................................... 27

Research-to-Go

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Modelling Ontario's Regulated Marketing Systems for Policy Analysis UofG2013-1691

Funding Program

Agricultural and Rural Policy regulated markets, models, policy analysis Alan Ker University of Guelph 15/04/2014 End Date

OMAFRA - U of G Research

15/04/2017

Abstract The purpose of this project is to design and maintain an econometric simulation model of the supply chain for agricultural products produced within Ontario's regulated marketing systems. The model could be used to examine the consequences -- particularly the costs and benefits -- of various policies or shocks to the sector, with particular emphasis on identifying the consequences for producers and consumers at each level of the supply chain. More specifically, the model permits users to synthetically apply shocks to a series of supply and demand equations to generate counterfactual outputs and prices at various stages of production for a given year. When compared with the baseline scenario, the counterfactual outputs could be used to calculate estimates of the net gain or loss at each stage of the supply chain as well as the industry as a whole.

The model would provide the Ministry, the Institute for the Advanced Study of Food and Agricultural Policy, and industry groups a tool to assist in informed policy discussions. The main advantage of the proposed approach is its flexibility: the model can be used to assess any number of specific problems as they arise.

Objectives The first objective of this project is to develop a model of agricultural products produced within Ontario's regulated marketing system. The model would be grounded in historical data and use robust empirical methods. Most importantly, the model will capture the nuisances of the industry. By developing a credible model, we can examine any number of "what-if" questions, especially changes to the industry resulting from exogenous shocks and policy alternatives.

The second objective of this project is to increase the modeling capacity of Ministry employees and researchers at the Department of Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (FARE) (at the University of Guelph). We began developing this capacity with a model of the beef sector and plan to extend to other

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agricultural sectors to further extend the province’s capacity. This approaches offers grounded economic analysis on potential changes to factors that affect the industry, including policy changes.

Benefits This research will be particularly useful for government and industry in understanding the factors that affect Ontario's regulated marketing system for agricultural products. The model could be used to answer different “what if” questions that concern government or industry, or “what if” questions of mutual concern. For example, we could consider how different scenarios from international trade agreements would affect producers (cost-of-production, margins, total production, etc.) and consumers (consumption, retail prices).

Another example, would be to aid in costing various disease outbreak scenarios. While anticipating the direction of these effects is sometimes straightforward, the model is especially useful because it estimates the magnitude of effects based on concrete data and rigorous empirical techniques. Case in point: in the United States the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute maintains a comprehensive model of U.S. agricultural sectors, which has been used to inform policymakers on farm bills and served as a vehicle for policy dialogue. Development of this model is intended to offer similar support for policymakers in Ontario, for the mutual benefit of government and industry, by providing economic analysis that facilitates the development of informed policy in a timely manner.

In addition, this project would improve the capacity of researchers at the Ministry and the Institute for the Advanced Study of Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Guelph to answer "what if" questions about agricultural products produced within Ontario's regulated marketing system. Currently, there is very little capacity to provide grounded economic analysis on the state, or potential state, of these industries. In light of recent trade agreements and talks, there are many plausible scenarios that could have adverse consequences for these industries. The extent of these consequences is not very well understood. This project is about providing not only a model of the industry, but building capacity within the research partnership to generate informed insight into the consequences of these possible scenarios.

Co-Funder List •

Institute for the Advanced Study of Food and Agricultural Policy

Team Member 1. Mr. Tor Tolhurst University of Guelph UofG Research Associate 2. Mr. Stephen Duff OMAFRA 3. Ms. Jocelin Oh

OMAFRA Staff

University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title

Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

The Fusion Youth and Technology Centre: An Assessment of an Integrated Rural Youth Development and Labour Force Development Strategy UofG2011-1061

Funding Program

Agricultural and Rural Policy youth, human capital, labour-force development Allan Lauzon University of Guelph 30/06/2012 End Date

OMAFRA - U of G Research

15/05/2015

Abstract This research project proposes to assess the efficacy and efficiency of the Fusion Youth and Technology Centre, a unique model of youth and labour force development. Specifically it will examine Fusion as a process of social innovation and examine the impact upon youth participants, the community and business community and how investment in Fusion leads to cost aversions in other areas. It will also examine partnerships Fusion has entered into with both the public and private sector and determine the motivations, costs and benefits accrued by Fusion’s partners. Given that the efficacy and effectiveness of Fusion can be demonstrated in terms of youth development and labour force development, it will serve as an example and as a process of how other rural communities can mobilize their resources to meet the needs of rural youth and labour force development. Furthermore, policy leverage points will be identified for fostering social innovation in youth development programs which also has implications for the process of social innovation and social enterprise development across a variety of sectors in rural communities.

Objectives 1. To describe in depth the process and evolution of Fusion as a process of social innovation, identifying key turning points, events, and financing over the course of its history, and the costs averted in the delivery of other services.

2. To determine the impact/outcomes of youth participating in Fusion activities/programming in terms of positive asset development, skill and knowledge development and acquisition, changes in academic performance and changes in career aspirations. This objective will examine both the global impact of participation and the impact of participating in specific programs.

3. To assess the efficacy and effectiveness of individual programs and social enterprises specifically focused on labour force development and their impact upon youth and the community.

4. To determine the impact of Fusion on the business community of Ingersoll and the surrounding area.

5. To determine motivations, costs, and benefits accrued by Fusion partners.

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Benefits There are a number of benefits of this project for a diverse number of stakeholders.

First, rural communities will benefit in terms of providing an example for developing one of their most important and untapped human resources—youth who stay—if the efficacy and efficiency of Fusion’s approach to youth development and labour force development can be demonstrated.

Second, if Fusion’s efficacy and efficiency can be demonstrated other rural youth will benefit as the Fusion example can be used to model both the process of development and the structuring of youth services for other rural communities. It may also have implications for larger urban centres.

Third, the research will help government policy makers identify policy leverage points for developing innovative rural youth programs that meet rural youth development and labour force needs. Furthermore, these leverage points that are identified can be used to foster rural social innovation and enterprises in general across a spectrum of services.

Fourth, given its interdisciplinary nature, it will be of interest to researchers and scholars in rural development,local economic development, child and youth development, community and capacity development, policy development and social innovation/social enterprise development.

Fifth, it provides an alternative means for government officials at all levels to think about rural labour force development with a focus on youth who stay.

Co-Funder List Team Member 1. Fred Pries

University of Guelph Collaborating Researcher

2. Andrea Breen

University of Guelph Collaborating Researcher

3. Mr. Jason Smith

Collaborators

Non-UofG Collaborator

4. Dr. Carolyn Pletsch University of Guelph Collaborating Researcher 5. Linda Hawkins

University of Guelph UofG Faculty (On Campus)

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

A Farmer Panel: A value-to-rent measure for Ontario farmland UofG2013-1794

Funding Program

Agricultural and Rural Policy farmland, rent, value, panel Brady Deaton University of Guelph 31/08/2014 End Date

OMAFRA - U of G Research

01/08/2016

Abstract This project sets out to establish and test a method for providing publicly available rent-to-value ratios for Ontario farmland. The project establishes an oversight committee– comprised of Farm Credit Canada (FCC), Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC), Ontario Federation of Agriculture (OFA), Ontario assessors and OMAFRA representatives. This committee supports and provides feedback on three key stages of the project. (Many of the aforementioned have provided strong letters of endorsement for this project.)

The first stage of the project reviews the literature on various methods for gathering long term data on rentto-value ratios. The second, part of the project proposes a method for obtaining that data in Ontario. The third part of the project implements that method and summarizes lessons learned. The project is designed to provide a proof of concept and potentially support a long-term project that would provide this data into the future. The approach enables a variety of policy makers, agricultural groups, farmers and landlords to better understand the agricultural value component of Ontario farmland; the return on investment on farmland, and further enhances landlord and tenant understanding of area rental rates.

Objectives The objective of this project is to develop and implement a method that provides a high-quality value to rent ratio for farmland in Ontario. The specific objectives are: a) to engage major stakeholders in the development of an index on the ratio of farmland value to rental rate; b) to determine the technical requirements for a statistically valid sample of farm operators and the means to ask questions on farmland markets; Benefits Understanding rental rates is important to policy in a any era but given the meteoric rise in farmland values over the last three years, the lack of a credible farmland value to rent ratio is a serious constraint to producers, investors, the financial system, and policy makers. Information on farmland values and rental rates allow operators and bankers to better assess investment decisions and provide insights to policy

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makers on the competitiveness and sustainability of the agri-food sector. Moreover, the compilation of farmland values and rental rates can provide information to tenants and landlords on farmland market conditions. Finally, rental data allows one to distinguish the agricultural value component of farmland from non-agricultural influences: e.g., residential development pressures. This distinction may be very important to current efforts to assess farmland for taxation purposes. The strong letters of support, from OFA, FCC, and MPAC which are included in this proposal, speak directly to perceived benefits.

The compilation also provides valuable information to policy makers, investors and lenders on potential “bubbles” in farmland prices. Over time, a measure similar to the Case-Shiller index can be constructed. The Case-Shiller index uses data on repeat sales of single-family homes in the US to examine pricing trends in the US housing market. Shiller’s analysis of the data was the basis for his book entitled “Irrational Exuberance” that predicted the crash of the US housing market. Shiller is the 2013 co-recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on asset prices.

Co-Funder List Team Member 1. Dr. Alfons Weersink University of Guelph UofG Faculty (On Campus)

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Cost Competitiveness of Ontario Food Industries: Productivity and Capacity Utilization UofG2013-1709

Funding Program

OMAFRA - U of G Research

Agricultural and Rural Policy Food Manufacturing; Competitiveness; Productivity; Capacity Getu Hailu University of Guelph 02/06/2014 End Date 30/06/2017

Abstract With the on-going changes in technology and more open global markets, food manufacturers are forced to remain cost competitive in food processing. The long term competitiveness in food processing depends on the ability of manufacturers to keep production costs low, or have higher productivity. What is unclear is how high/low food processing costs are in Ontario as compared to other jurisdictions, and the trend in cost and productivity? Do variations in capacity utilization matter for the changing cost of production in Ontario food processing industries? Some global Ontario food processing firms such as H.J. Heinz Co., Smucker’s, Kellogg, and Kraft Food Groups Inc. are recently shifting their operations to cheaper jurisdictions to save costs. Further, the recent EU-Canada proposed agreement to double the amount of European cheese allowed into Canada challenges the Canadian cheese processing firms. These emerging changes underscore the stiff challenges facing parts of Ontario’s food processing firms and calls for a closer examination of cost competitiveness of Ontario’s food processing firms and comparison with other jurisdictions. The objective of this research is to enhance our understanding of cost competitiveness of Ontario’s food processing industry.

Objectives The purpose of this research is to assess the cost competitiveness of Ontario's food processing industry. The specific objectives are to: a) examine the current state of cost/production structure, capacity utilization, and productivity for Ontario's food processing industries and compare them with other jurisdictions (e.g., Quebec and U.S.); b) assess the influence of capacity utilization on production costs and productivity of Ontario’s food processing industry; c) identify gaps in productivity and capacity utilization for selected food processing industries. For example, we aim to explore the effect of regulatory environment – e.g., supply managed vs. others - on productivity and capacity utilization; d) determine the role of government in fostering competitive and sustainable food processing industry; and e) understand the implications of changing cost of production on the competitiveness and sustainability of

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food industries. f) draw clear policy implications for the effective targeting of programmes to enhance the cost competitiveness.

Benefits The food processing sector connects the food supply chain from farm to consumer. The direct beneficiaries of the outcome of the study are OMAFRA and the Ontario food manufacturing. A comprehensive plant/industry capacity utilization, productivity and cost analysis framework will be developed for Ontario’s food processing sector both at the industry and the firm levels. Alliance of Ontario Food Processors (AOFP) is one of the direct beneficiaries of the results from the results of our study. As indicated by the letter of support from FCPC (where AOFP is a member of) “the identification of key success factors would be useful to assess the dynamics of food manufacturing in Ontario. This research could be used both internally and externally by our organization to support business decisions and inform our members.”

Better understanding of the cost competitiveness of the food processing industry will also benefit farming communities. Food processing and the Ontario farming community have direct relationship with each and their activities benefit each other. For example, “Food and beverage processing is the first customer to farmers, with Ontario-based food processors buying about 65% of food-related farm production in the province (AFOP). More competitive food processing industry may support and enable the economic activity and impacts generated by the Ontario farming industry.

The framework and results of the study allows Ontario Government policy makers to timely respond to questions related to the cost competitiveness of Ontario’s food processing firms and the challenges they face. For example, what caused the recent waves of closures of several food-processing plants across Ontario, who would be affected, and how could we enhance their success and viability? What is the effect of exchange rate, or import tax, or animal diseases outbreak,or financial crisis on cost competitiveness? How does the changing food processing cost influence Ontario local food initiatives, creation of local jobs, entry into new global markets and expansion in existing global markets? What is the influence of the complex and constantly changing regulatory environment that imposes high compliance costs on the industry? What is the effect of private and public expenditure on food processing firms?

Co-Funder List Team Member 1. Mr. Stephen Duff OMAFRA

OMAFRA Staff

2. Kenneth Poon

UofG Research Associate

University of Guelph

3. Dr. Nicoleta Uzea The University of Western Ontario Non-UofG Collaborator 4. David Sparling

The University of Western Ontario Non-UofG Collaborator

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Opportunities for Improved Efficiency in Water Use in Ontario Agriculture UofG2011-1154

Funding Program

OMAFRA - U of G Research

Agricultural and Rural Policy Water conservation, Economics, Agriculture, Spatial Glenn Fox University of Guelph 01/05/2012 End Date 31/08/2015

Abstract This project will update estimates of agricultural water use in Ontario and also evaluate the prior methods that have been developed to complile those estimates. As per the stated priority, this project will also examine the roles and responsibilities of government in encouraging water conservation. This research will also involve economic case studies of the farm-level feasibility of selected water conservation technologies and systems applicable to commercial agriculture in Ontario. The rationale for this research rests on Ontario's committments under the 2007 Canada-Ontario Agreement Respecting the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem and also regulations pending under the Ontario Water Opportunities Act. Under the Act, provinical ministries, municipalities and other organizations can be required to develop water conservation goals and to monitor progress toward those goals. Having accurate benchmarking data for agricultural water use and developing the ability to repeat measures of agricultural water use over time are important research information needs under the Act. Objectives The purpose of this research is to provide current benchmarking data on agricultural water use in Ontario and to develop a spatial, dynamic and stochastic modeling framework to study the effects of alternative management and policy approaches on agricultural water consumption over time.

The objectives of this research are 1. To update and evaluate previous estimates of agricultural water use in Ontario in order to establish accurate and repeatable methods for measuring progress on water conservation goals for Ontario agriculture. Consideration will be given to using available annual data on agricultural production as an alternative to or as a supplement to the use of agricultural census data.

2. To conduct economic case studies of innovative water conservation strategies for a representative set of agricultural production systems

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Benefits This project addresses the Water (quantity) Policy/Sustainability priority. This priority reflects Ontario's committments under the 2007 Canada-Ontario Agreement Respecting the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem.

This agreement, which originally ran from 2007-2010, was extended to 2011 and is currently under renegotiation. This research also reflects the information needs of OMAFRA under the Ontario Water Opportunities Act. Under the Act, OMAFRA can be required to develop water conservation goals and strategies and to monitor progress toward the realization of those goals. Current estimates of water use in Ontario agriculture are dated, and have been criticized for reliance on expert opinion and on coefficients reported in the literature. Updating the existing set of estimates is necessary to establish realistic and relevant water conservation goals for the sector. Current estimates of water use in Ontario agriculture are too old to be used as benchmarks measuring sectoral progress in water conservation. Evaluation of the approach used in previous studies and comparison of the expert opinion based coefficients with actual experience in a range of locations and for a representative set of commodities for Ontario agriculture is also important to establishing relevant conservation goals. Adoption of innovative water conservation technologies and management systems at the farm level also requires a better understanding of the farm level costs and benefits of those options. The spatial and temporal dimensions of agricultural water use are also critical to policy development under the Act and under the Canada-Ontario Agreement. Water abundance varies considerably across regions in Ontario and over time within the growing season and also across years, including some years when excess water is an important problem. Better empirical modeling of these dimensions is needed to inform policy development. The spatial and temporal distributions of water use and availability in Ontario agriculture is also important to understand if conservation goals are to adequatly represent the variation in local and seasonal scarcities of water in the province. Conditions of water scarcity vary considerably within years and across years. And the intensity of water use demands that compete with agricultural use varies considerably across locations in the province.

Co-Funder List Team Member 1. Ms. Effie Kalantzis University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student 2. Mr. David Jacques University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Spatial Stochastic Modeling of Water Use Efficiency in Ontario Agriculture UofG2013-1552

Funding Program

Agricultural and Rural Policy Water quantity, efficiency, spatial, stochastic Glenn Fox University of Guelph 13/06/2014 End Date

OMAFRA - U of G Research

31/12/2017

Abstract The work proposed in this project extends research completed and in progress in project 200449, "Opportunities for Improved Efficiency in Water Use in Ontario Agriculture." When that project was proposed, three phases of research were described. The first phase involved updating water use estimates for Ontario agriculture, based on an approach what was developed for OMAF by Deloe. This work has been completed (Kalantzis, 2013). The second phase involves farm level economic case studies of production practices and technologies that have the potential to enhance water use efficiency in agriculture in Ontario.

That work is underway and an MSc thesis will be completed by August, 2014 (Jacques). The third phase of the original proposal involved the development of a spatial stochastic land use model that could be used to study alternative program and policy measures that might be considered to encourage improved efficiency in water use in agriculture in Ontario. The review committee in 2011 approved the first two phases of this project and recommended that the third phase be submitted as a new project when the first two projects were completed. This proposal describes this third phase of the research.

Objectives The purpose of this project is to develop, test and apply a spatial, stochastic economic modeling framework that can be used to study ways of improving water use efficiency.

1. To review, compare and assess alternative modeling approaches with regard to their suitability for the purposes of this project. This assessment would include the AAFC CRAM model and the USDA Hydrogeological model.

2. Once the most appropriate modeling approach has been identified the next objective will be to adapt that model to the Ontario agricultural context 3. To compile the required data inputs for the selected/identified modeling approach.

4. To calibrate and test the model 5. To construct water availability and policy scenarios, in consultation with project advisors 6. To perform simulations with the model to examine the previously identified scenarios and to evaluate the

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robustness of various approaches to encouraging improvements in water use efficiency in Ontario agriculture Benefits This project addresses the Water (quantity) Policy/Sustainability priority. Previous research in a related project (200449)has updated water use estimates in Ontario agriculture for 2001, 2006 and 2001. This previous project is also completing financial feasibility analysis of selected technologies and innovations that have the potential to improve water use efficiency in Ontario agriculture. The work research described in this proposal builds on that previous work. A spatial stochastic modeling framework of the type proposed herein can be used to study alternative scenarios of future water availability under different policy and technology regimes. The spatial stochastic cost benefit framework proposed here can be used to study emerging or possible patterns of increased water scarcity at a provincial or at regional and local scales.

Water abundance varies considerably across regions in Ontario and over time within the growing season and also across years,including some years when excess water is an important problem. Better empirical modeling of these dimensions is needed to inform policy development. The spatial stochastic land use model that is proposed for this project has been used successfully by FARE faculty and students and their colleagues at Natural Resources Canada as a policy modeling framework for a wide range of agricultural and silvicultural issues. This simulation modeling framework makes it possible to study alternative policies and programs, in this context, related to promoting water conservation, at local, regional and provincial levels.

The model incorporates historical weather data as well as land characteristics, alternative land uses and production responses to changing water availability, prices and policies. Given the spatial and temporal variation in water availability and use in Ontario agriculture, this type of modeling framework is necessary to explore possible combinations of changing precipitation patterns, groundwater availability, farming practices and policy measures. The model can be partitioned to study emerging regional and local situations where water availability is already under stress or where the potential for this situation to arise has been identified. Model partitioning can also be used when local or regional data are available for part of the province but are not available for every location.

Team Member 1. Dr. Dan McKenney Collaborators

UofG Adjunct Faculty

2. Dr. Alfons Weersink University of Guelph UofG Faculty (On Campus) 3. Ms. Qin Xu

University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student

4. Ms. Rebecca shortt OMAFRA 5. Dr. Gary Parkin

OMAF and MRA Staff

University of Guelph UofG Faculty (On Campus)

6. Mr. Hugh Simpson OMAFRA

OMAFRA Staff

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title

Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Intermunicipal Collaboration: An Assessment of the Potential for Improving Delivery and Cost Effectiveness of Small, Rural Water Service Systems UofG2011-1008

Funding Program

Agricultural and Rural Policy inter-municipal collaboration, water services John Fitzgibbon University of Guelph 01/04/2012 End Date

OMAFRA - U of G Research

31/03/2015

Abstract The provision of water services in small rural municipalities is a significant problem given the limited resources and capacities of these communities. These issues are immediately significant because the requirements of provincial legislation (Ontario Water Resources Act, Safe Drinking water Act, Clean Water act and the Sustainable Sewer and Water Act (not in force at present)) have recently changed. These changes further strain the limited fiscal capacity (capital and operating costs), the limited access to expert management and operating staff, the requirements for higher standards of service delivery, and the limited access to advanced technology. One solution to providing for mitigation of these issues is the use of intermunicipal collaboration. Information sharing, formal and informal agreements for the joint management of infrastructure, sharing of staff resources, use of circuit riders, collaborative procurement arrangements both for services and technology, public-private partnerships, revolving credit funds and bond banks as well as other mechanisms have been used in various context in other jurisdictions to increase the sustainability of rural water services and infrastructure. The infrastructure, funding gap, staffing gap, and administrative/governance gaps can potentially by minimized through the use of collaboration that this research will investigate in order to recommend Best Management Practices.

Objectives 1) To develop a generalized model of the management systems and requirements for water services in rural small towns in Ontario.

2) To assess the different collaborative instruments that can be used by small, rural municipalities to support and deliver water services.

3) To undertake an evaluation of existing collaborations (successful and un-sucessful) and their impacts on sustainability of water services in small, rural communities (using a model of the management requirements for water service management in rural communities and a structured evaluative framework for

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intermunicipal collaborations).

4) To integrate the results of the evaluation into a model management approach.

5) To assess the model with municipalities that are currently involved in a collaboration and with a set of case study municiplaities that are not currently collaborating.

6) To develop a final guidance document for development of collaborative municipal water management undertakings.

Benefits Given the limited resources and capacity of small, rural municipalities in supporting water services in the long term, the development of a range of collaborative instruments offers the following benefits: 1) Efficiencies and effectiveness for program delivery: a) Cost savings through joint purchasing and contracting, rotating credit funds and bond banks etc. (economies of scale and bargaining power). b) Cost savings and retention of qualified staff through shared technical support services (circuit riders). c) Improved environmental management through shared monitoring and reporting processes. d) Improved service delivery management and maintenance through coordination of water services management, and sharing of staff.

2) Capacities for Intermunicipal collaboration: a) Identification of key elements of the process of development of inter-municipal and public private partmentsips. b) Identification of the key capacities and skills required for development of collaborative arrangements. c) Development of approaches to building the capacities of municipalities for collaborative enterprises.

Co-Funder List •

University of Guelph

Team Member 1. Mr. James Johnstone University of Guelph Graduate Student 2. Ms. Inem Chahal

University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title

Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

An evaluation of the implications of private water supply and waste water systems for Rural Ontario Municipalities UofG2013-1522

Funding Program

Agricultural and Rural Policy rural water services, private sector, John Fitzgibbon University of Guelph 02/06/2014 End Date

OMAFRA - U of G Research

31/12/2016

Abstract There are approximately 18,000 privately operated water supply and waste water systems in Ontario. These systems serve a wide range of development including small rural sub-divisions, small settlements, large rural recreational communities and facilities for both permanent residents and seasonal communities. Private water supply and waste water facilities provide a needed service for these developments in rural Ontario.

However, the issues they raise are many, including: quality of the service provided, the safety of the water for human use, potential impacts on the rural environment and potential liability for the rural municipality that approves these developments. These systems are regulated under a complex of regulations and policy, including the Ministry of the Environment (Safe Drinking Water Act), the Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, (Health Promotion and Protection Act) and the Municipality (Planning and Municipal Acts). This study will assess and evaluate the place of these systems in providing needed services for rural Ontario as well as the liabilities they may generate. This will be carried out through an analysis of institutional arrangements, detailed case studies and a survey of key issues and opportunities across the province.

Objectives 1) Undertake an analysis of the institutional arrangements that govern the approval and operations of small private water supply and waste water systems in Ontario. This will provide an integrated picture of the provincial jurisdictions, policies, approvals and management processes for small water supply and waste water systems.

2) Undertake detailed case studies of small private water systems in 10 municipalities across across 5 different regions of Ontario to obtain a more detailed view of the current local policies, issues and opportunities for development on private water services.

3) Compare the issues related to the choice of private water services versus municipally operated services.

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4) Survey all 330 rural municipalities and 36 Health Units to verify and support generalizations from the case studies and provide a provincial overview of the local policies, issues and opportunities and importance of privately serviced development as compared to municipally serviced development.

Benefits 1) Privately owned and operated water services play a valuable role in supporting both permanent year round facilities (Residences, commercial businesses, recreational settlements and resorts) as well as seasonal residences in rural Ontario. Their efficient and effective provision of water services is critical to development in rural Ontario 2) Private water services, if properly managed can reduce the costs of development to rural municipalities.

Private services, if not properly managed, can result in liabilities for the community, the environment and the municipality. Development of an understanding of the role these developments play in rural development will be useful in further developing provincial policy with rspect to preferences for and conditions required for policies supporting or limiting approval of development on private water services.

3)An analysis of the approvals and permitting process including the role of the Ministry of the Environment, the Municipality and the Public Health Units will provide a clear picture of requirements and processes required for private water supply and wastewater supported development.

4) Analysis of the issues facing the owners and operators of the small (more than five connections or open to use of the general public) private water and waste water systems will provide them with the information required to manage the issues on the part of both the owner operators as well as the Municipalities and Health Units.

Co-Funder List •

University of Guelph

Team Member 1. Mr. Ben Kissner University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student 2. Mr. Paul Simon Collaborators

UofG Graduate Student

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

An Evaluation Framework for Community Food Hubs UofG2011-1091

Funding Program

OMAFRA - U of G Research

Agricultural and Rural Policy urban-rural linkages, regional economies, sustainability Karen Landman University of Guelph 01/06/2012 End Date 31/05/2015

Abstract A growing activity around food has focused on food hubs, defined simply as local, community-based initiatives that link producers and consumers as directly as possible. Building on a growing body of work on food hubs in Ontario and elsewhere, we propose to develop an evaluation framework to assess the outcomes of Community Food Hubs (CFH). In April 2011, the USDA announced that food hubs are emerging as a viable business model that supports regional food systems and provides infrastructure and economic opportunities for regional producers. In Canada, CFH have emerged to link agricultural production, food distribution, farmer training, public education, community outreach and urban-rural collaboration for sustainability and resiliency. CFH are promising as they help connect rural and urban populations, and create education channels to raise awareness about the benefits of healthy eating, environmental stewardship, social welfare and resilient, diversified rural economies. Some CFH have been around long enough that they are now reflecting on effectiveness and goal achievements, and are looking for thorough evaluation processes. The creation of a CFH evaluation framework will play an important role in strengthening these organizations and in guiding provincial and municipal policy in this area.

Objectives Developing an evaluation framework for community food hubs (CFH) is the primary objective of this project.

Based on conversations with CFH across the province, we have determined that there is a need for better evaluation tools with which to communicate outcomes to funding partners, policy makers and other collaborators. Because CFH are connected to sophisticated and extensive networks of public, private and not-for-profit groups, academics, community service agencies and the like, and contain a broad array of programming, they experience a wide range of inputs and outputs that create for highly complex systems.

This complexity is a strength but also a challenge to evaluate both internally and externally. This research proposal fills a vital need at both the operational level for existing and potential CFH, as well as for government policy where possible.

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Benefits USDA (2011) research highlights food hubs as an emerging model that offers aggregation and distribution services for small and midsize producers, and demonstrates that farmers can connect with urban communities to create economic opportunities for rural communities. We are seeing both a growth of and integration among actors in the local food movement, increasingly generating beneficial synergies for communities across the rural-urban spectrum (Blay-Palmer, Landman et al., current SSHRC research). While an effort to inventory CFH is underway, measuring the outcomes of CFH in Ontario remains a challenge because there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation frameworks and adequately participatory processes to measure triple bottom lines across their multiple program areas, including production, distribution, education, training, collaboration and outreach.

We propose to work with CFH to develop an evaluation framework to appropriately measure outcomes and relate these outcomes to priority needs in rural communities (jobs, innovation, environmental sustainability, health, community resilience, etc.). This increased capacity to demonstrate CFH outcomes that relate to priority needs will have the following benefits to Ontario’s agri-food and rural sectors: 1) CFH will have increased capacity to convey their success to funders, staff and participants, thus improving their programming, strengthening their business cases and their ability to attract grant funding to programs across intersections in food, agriculture, environment, education and health.

2) Policy makers will have a better idea of how CFH can benefit rural economies, link urban and rural stakeholders and create value in the form of economic but also social, environmental, health, employment, and cultural value.

3) Through our existing partnerships and in collaboration with OMAFRA, our research dissemination efforts will highlight the potential of these emerging integrated business models for stakeholders across the ruralurban spectrum, demonstrating how linking producers and consumers through CFH can rural economic opportunity and regional resilience.

4) Measuring the outcomes and highlighting the impacts of these regionally integrated value chains and diversified farm enterprise models will create new interest in regional food networks and collaborative local food infrastructure development.

Co-Funder List • • •

Everdale Environmental Learning Centre The Stop Community Food Centre Windhorse Farm

Team Member 1. Dr. Alison Blay-Palmer Wilfrid Laurier University Collaborating Researcher 2. Dr John F Devlin

University of Guelph

Collaborating Researcher

3. Dr. Erin Nelson

University of Guelph

UofG Post Doc Fellow

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Research-to-Go

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Analysis of Variability within the Ontario Swine Sector UofG2013-1762

Funding Program

OMAFRA - U of G Research

Agricultural and Rural Policy swine sector competitiveness profitability productivity Ken McEwan University of Guelph 30/04/2014 End Date 30/04/2017

Abstract The Ontario swine industry has struggled for viability due to many challenges including extended periods of low pork prices, high feed costs, disease pressures (e.g. PRRS, circo virus, PED), trade barriers and a high Canadian dollar relative to the U.S.. Using the Ontario Farm Income Database (OFID) this project will investigate the variability of profit beyond farm size and production type. In particular the role of homegrown feeds, pig health, and the level of productivity will be examined. Farms that have consistently been in the database from 2003 will be placed in profitability quintiles within various size and type categories. Government payments will also be analyzed from a farm income stability perspective. OFID also allows for a comparison of cash vs accrual figures which is crucial for teasing out the true differences in profitability between farms.

The Ontario Data Analysis Project (ODAP) is an on-going benchmarking study at Ridgetown Campus based on financial and production data from land-based farrow-to-finish farms. Information for each farm includes income statement, balance sheet, production and demographic data. This is the only project of it's kind in Canada. Results from ODAP will be compared with the results from OFID. Objectives The overriding objective of this research is to continue to explore farm profitability beyond farm size and production type. This project is intended to be a timeline continuation of analysis previously done along with new aspects to be examined. This project will continue to look at factors affecting profitability including swine production type, farm size (revenue), debt levels, plus additional factors such as swine health, productivity, role of homegrown feeds and impact of government program participation.

Farms will be placed into groups and analyzed for differences or consistencies in farm profitability.

Comparison with the Ontario Data Analysis Project (ODAP) will also be done. ODAP includes results for Ontario farrow-to-finish swine farms.

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The period to be examined will include 2003 to the most current annual data available. The proposed three year period will allow for the inclusion of data up to and including the 2014 tax year.

Benefits The main benefactors of this research are producers, lenders, input suppliers, government policy advisers and other swine industry stakeholders.

Producers and swine industry members are interested in this research as it provides a means of benchmarking the industry and shows differences between the most profitable and least profitable farms which provides an opportunity for farms to improve specific aspects of their operations. Credit lenders and input suppliers are particularly interested in this research as it provides a sense of the financial condition of the industry after it experienced a tough period from 2006 to 2010 that caused many producers to exit the industry or assume more debt. Government policy advisers will benefit from the research by seeing if stabilization programs are working for all producers and not just large operations.

In terms of measuring swine farm profitability over time there are limited databases available in Ontario.

The swine team working for OMAF publishes cost of production models for different pig production types based on industry estimates. The Ontario Data Analysis Project (ODAP) which has both financial and production data on farrow to finish farms over time is small in terms of farm numbers (i.e. only 15-20 farms per year have supplied records) but powerful in terms of detail and accuracy. Key learning points from the Ontario Data Analysis Project have been the tremendous variability of farm income experienced by swine farms; the importance of cost control; and strong production parameters are crucial to long run success.

OFID has a large number of producers so that conclusive industry averages and results can be obtained.

Ontario producers want to know, over the long term, answers to questions such as: Is it more profitable to be land-based and grow their feed or to purchase feed?; Is there a relationship between farm size and health issues? This can assist them in making management and investment decisions on their farms. Policy makers would benefit in understanding if Business Risk Management Programs have addressed the industry need by farm size and type and aid in the development of future programs Co-Funder List •

Ontario Pork

Team Member 1. Randy Duffy

UofG Research Associate

University of Guelph

2. Mrs. Lynn Marchand University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus UofG Research Associate 3. Kenneth Poon

UofG Research Associate

University of Guelph

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4. Mr. Stephen Duff

OMAFRA

OMAF and MRA Staff

5. Mr. Greg Pate

OMAFRA

OMAF and MRA Staff

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Research-to-Go

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title

Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Best Practices in the Use of Nature/Natural Systems to Create New Economic Activity and Rural Community Resilience UofG2013-1660

Funding Program

OMAFRA - U of G Research

Agricultural and Rural Policy employment community resiliency nature/natural systems Wayne Caldwell University of Guelph 01/09/2014 End Date 31/10/2016

Abstract This research proposal examines barriers/opportunities for using nature/natural systems as a mechanism for rural labour market development, and as a means to generate rural community resilience.

When working with Ontario’s land use base, planners must often make trade-offs in priorities in striving for economic activity, managing resources and promoting public health/safety. The environment is often portrayed as a ‘development constraint’ which stifles progress. In southern Ontario this is especially so as a diversity of land uses vie for a limited land base – for agriculture, resource extraction, human settlements.

This proposal investigates the role of the environment as an essential ingredient for successful human settlements, for health and wellbeing and as a community asset that can stimulate economic activity.

The research includes a literature review here and abroad, surveys and case studies that outlines new types of 'green employment' that can be found embedded in the goods and services of our ecological system. A best practices manual will result.

Objectives 1) To identify current rural municipal activities associated with approaches using the good and services of nature as an economic development tool.

2) To seek out innovative tools and approaches that offer lessons for other rural municipalities to promote economic activity associated with local nature/natural systems.

3) To examine the provisions of ‘Green Infrastructure’ as a useful, cost effective nature-based design tool for providing essential infrastructure in rural communities.

4) To develop resource materials (including case studies and best practices) that can assist rural

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municipalities in approaching nature/natural systems as a potential economic development tool as well as a means to improve community resiliency.

5) To examine and document the synergies that may occur between an environmentally resilient land use base and opportunities to address health and wellness challenges for rural areas, as well as other issues for Ontario including climate change adaptation and biodiversity protection.

Benefits The examination of employment opportunities through the use of nature/natural systems as well as building community facilities using green infrastructure (GI)will assist in the promotion of rural community resiliency.

GI is defined here to be human-constructed/utilized natural element systems (see lit review for references).

In considering specific applications of GI, the following are indicative of the breadth of mechanisms and circumstances where the embedded goods and services of nature can be of use to the health and wellness conditions of humans, as well as provide employment opportunities. The following elements of GI are examples only: the protection of surface and groundwater quality, the provision of a water supply, groundwater recharge, increased health opportunities through outdoor recreation, improved air quality, reduction in summer heat island effects, reduced flooding, local agriculture promotion, improved community cohesiveness, reduction in traditional ‘grey infrastructure’ servicing need, opportunities for community education, community amenity and attractiveness, reduced energy need, improved wildlife habitat for enhanced tourism and biodiversity protection, reduced noise pollution, provision of resources (where available) of materials such as lumber and aggregates, climate change mitigation.

A variety of rural stakeholders will benefit from the research: 1) Rural residents and business owners (including agricultural producers) will have a greater understanding of opportunities for job creation using the goods and services embedded in nature.

2) Employment agencies and economic development offices will have new and creative opportunities for employment concerning natural attributes found within rural communities.

3) Rural municipality politicians and planners will have new methods for identifying projects concerning nature/natural systems that provide green infrastructure community benefits. The work will identify synergistic opportunities whereby development constraint lands (e.g. floodplains, unstable slope areas) can be utilized for other natural multifunctional purposes (e.g. treed landscapes, stream riparian buffer strips, pollinator plantings).

4) Community groups and agencies (e.g. Conservation Authorities, Public Health Units) that pursue environmental initiatives will have greater capacity to understand and acknowledge attributes of nature/natural systems.

5) KTT activities will occur to support Provincial objectives, e.g. actions associated with implementing the

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2014 PPS; climate change adaptation mechanisms (e.g.tree plantings); renewable energy (e.g. biofuel production); biodiversity protection.

Co-Funder List Team Member 1. Mr. Paul Kraehling University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student 2. Mr. TBD TBD

University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student

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Research-to-Go

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Land Use Planning and Agriculture: Measuring Farmland Availability UofG2013-1569

Funding Program

Agricultural and Rural Policy Agriculture, farmland, land use planing Wayne Caldwell University of Guelph 01/09/2014 End Date

OMAFRA - U of G Research

31/10/2017

Abstract This proposal seeks to evaluate the current state of Ontario's farmland in terms of the land available and policies regarding land conservation. The goal of this study is to develop a methodology that can be replicated across communities throughout Ontario that will measure both the availability of farmland and amount lost,. The methodology will include a review of regional and local official plan amendments, key informant interviews, provincial plans and other base data including census and other local documents to determine what land has been lost and what land is in production. Furthermore, the methodology will determine how agricultural land is classified and land availability is quantified by region to streamline and synthesize this data across Ontario. A land use policy jurisdictional review will also be conducted to determine key practices supportive of farmland protection from across the country. This project will be complimented by a socio-economic analysis of agriculture in Ontario and through coordinated research efforts with the Dr. Fox’s research team. Together, these aspects will provide a better understanding of the state of Ontario's farmland, including a more accurate classification system and representation of farmland availability.

Objectives This research has four main objectives: 1-Develop a methodology for analyzing the current state of Ontario’s farmland that is understandable, achievable, replicable and user-friendly.

This methodology will be applied to cases to determine the amount of farmland available and lost.

2-A jurisdictional scan of agricultural land use policies both within Ontario and across Canada will identify best practices that can be adopted in Ontario and will inform the SSHRC project of Ontario’s land management perspective.

3-An analysis of the socio-economic factors that impact the availability of agricultural land in Ontario.

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4-Provide best practices regarding land use policies to better protect the future availability of agricultural land in Ontario.

Benefits The future sustainability of agriculture in Ontario is dependent on a stable land base and precise understanding of the availability of farmland. In order to ensure that farmland is available, it is necessary to measure the existing land base and determine the quantity of land being lost to development. Currently, there is no systematic approach or methodology to accurately measure farmland loss. This research will establish a methodology to enable communities and the province to determine the supply of farmland and the amount of land lost.

The following stakeholders will benefit: Ontario’s Agricultural Sector The agricultural sector will benefit the most from this research project through a clearer understanding of the status of the Ontario land base. A clear representation of land availability and classification will determine the need for land-use preservation policies that support the farming industry and active utilization of agricultural land. Furthermore, an understanding of how socio-economic factors impact agricultural land and land use activities will enable the agricultural sector to better understand how farmland and the farming industry are impacted by land ownership, including non-farm rural residents and land cost.

Rural Ontario The development pressures on rural municipalities for the use of their land base continue to mount. The economics of land use make decisions about the utilization of the land base critical to rural municipal economic health. This research will provide concrete data as well as a methodology for rural areas to utilize to make more informed decisions on land use planning.

Decision Makers/Municipalities/Planners/Community Economic Developers These diverse stakeholders will benefit from this research as an accurate measure of farmland availability and loss provides a clearer understanding of the effectiveness of provincial and local policies oriented towards farmland preservation in Ontario (PPS/Greenbelt Plan).

Urban/Peri-urban Areas This research will help create a methodology that will assist in the utilization decisions around land that can be communicated to urban planners, developers and residences that will help decrease the pressures and conflict around land use planning. By providing a clear methodology for land use utilization a greater understanding around land use planning will develop, decreasing pressures and conflict.

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Co-Funder List Team Member 1. Ms. Sara Epp

University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student

2. Ms. TBA TBA

University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student

3. Mr. Bryce Sharpe University of Guelph UofG Graduate Student

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Research-to-Go

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Summary of current research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs-University of Guelph Partnership

Project Title

Submission number Theme(s) Key words Lead Applicant Organization Start Date

Government Business Risk Management (BRM) Program Participation and the Threshold Effects of Repayment on Farm Business Survival UofG2013-1501

Funding Program

Agricultural and Rural Policy Risk Management, Incentive, Experiment, BRM Ying Cao University of Guelph 01/07/2014 End Date

OMAFRA - U of G Research

30/06/2017

Abstract Many Business Risk Management (BRM) programs are available to farm operators as instruments to protect themselves from income fluctuation (such as AgriStability and AgriInsurance, etc.). Yet, participation of these programs by Ontario farmers has been low and falling over years (Weersink and Poon, 2013). In order to find out why, this project aims to investigate (1) how farmers value the programs as risk management instruments and behaviorally choose to enroll in/withdraw from the programs as responses to their dynamic financial streams and business status over years; (2) the effectiveness of the BRM programs in income smoothing and the role they played in shaping business strategies of Ontario farmers in the long-run. This project involves using Ontario Farm Income Database (OFID) from 2003 to 2012 and Framed Field Experiments to conduct analysis on BRM program adoption and efficiency. The “break-even� conditions at which cost of program premiums equals their payouts will be assessed via a simulation model. The study provides the industry operators with a deeper understanding on how BRM programs affect business performance in Ontario. The study also sheds light on how BRM program settings can generate variations in the participation decision and the program efficiency among relevant farms.

Objectives The study aims to provide understandings on how BRM programs affect business operation and performance in Ontario. The objectives of the project are to: 1. Use naturally observed data (OFID) to empirically investigate BRM program participation and efficiency.

(1) Heterogeneous factor impacts across farmers and (2) business entry/exit pressure will be taken into account for participation decision. Two additional econometric modeling techniques will be adopted to test (3) sequential decision-making and dynamic behavioral responses to income streams and financial situations, and (4) discontinuous effects of BRM program settings on income smoothing and the resulting program efficiency.

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2. Calibrate and conduct incentive compatible experiments to isolate and test farmer subjects' behavioral response to risk and risk management programs.

3. Quantitatively assess individualized “break-even” conditions at which premiums of a BRM program equals its payoff in expectation. (Under joint-support with BFO upon approval.)

Benefits By conducting this research project, (1) the effects of existing policy settings (such as risk layer boundaries, percentage of matching supports, etc) on BRM program participation and efficiency will be uncovered by analyzing the naturally observed tax filing data; (2) producer characteristics and psychological factors that impact behavioral responses to risk management strategies will be identified via framed experiments; (3) Carefully calibrated simulation model using the results from adoption and efficiency analysis can better inform producers on their decisions to stay in or opt out of the BRM programs; and inform OMAF on evaluation of alternative market/policy scenarios. Dissemination of research findings and scientific reports will not only boost awareness and appreciation of the BRM programs among producers, but also advance further policy development by taking into account the effects of current policy settings and farmers behavioral responses.

In summary, this project will provide the Ontario agricultural sector key insights into factors that help maximize the risk management benefits of the BRM programs. The results of the analysis will provide Ontario farm operators knowledge of which aspects the BRM programs can help in their overall financial and business risk management strategy, and thus take better advantage of the risk management support offered by the government. From the government point of view, this project will show how certain settings in the BRM programs affect the relative effectiveness across targeting groups and what should be done to make improvements for future farm support programs.

Co-Funder List •

Beef Farmers Ontario

Team Member 1. Kenneth Poon

University of Guelph UofG Research Associate

2. Dr. Alfons Weersink University of Guelph UofG Faculty (On Campus) 3. Mr. Stephen Duff

OMAFRA

4. Mr. John Cumming OMAF & MRA

OMAF and MRA Staff OMAFRA Staff

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For more information on these projects (including results) and many more please visit: www.uoguelph.ca/ktt/searchRP and www.uoguelph.ca/research/ARP

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