Property Market Direction (April 2010) by Gian Sam

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(A) OVERVIEW OF THE LARGER ECONOMY [A1] US ECONOMIC FRAGILITY AND HOUSING WOES ARE FAR FROM OVER The fallout of the 2008 ‘free market’ failures in the United States (US) is claiming more victims in fresh foreclosures in recent months; and more desperate measures are being taken by the Obama administration to cope with the increasingly desperate situation in the US. Ironically in Singapore, the government was blamed by private developers for meddling too much in the free market which the former deemed too speculative for its liking. [A.1.1] NEAR ZERO INTEREST RATES TO STAY FOR SOME TIME IN THE UNITED STATES (US) On 25 March 2010, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, told the US Congress that the record ‘near zero’ interest rates are still needed to rev up the US economic recovery. Mr. Bernanke cited the still-fragile economic conditions, and noted that inflation is low, which gives the Fed leeway to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels. However, some analysts believe the rates will have to go up by the second half of the year. [A.1.2] MORE PRIME BORROWERS DEFAULTING ON MORTGAGES According to a news report from New York on 25 March 2010, more of the prime borrowers (the opposite of sub-prime borrowers) who make up 68% of all home loans are defaulting on their mortgages in late 2009. The delinquency rate of the prime borrowers was nearly 14% in late last year. The increase in seriously delinquent mortgages was most pronounced among prime borrowers, with an increase of 16.5% in the fourth quarter of 2009. The sharp rise in seriously delinquent mortgages is likely to lead to a rise in foreclosure actions. [A.1.3] MORE BAILOUT PLANS FOR HOME LOANS UNDER THE WATER In the meantime, the Obama administration is announcing a plan to reduce the amount some troubled borrowers owe on their home loans. The Federal Housing Administration, a government agency that insures home loans against default will get US$14 billion (S$19.6 billion) to grant new loans to home owners who are holding on to a negative equity. The fund is on top of the existing US$75 billion foreclosureprevention program. In addition, their existing mortgage companies will be able to receive incentives to lower their principal balances. The program also includes assistance to help unemployed homeowners keep paying their mortgages.

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Taken in all the above facts, it means that the US housing woes are far from over and the fragile recovery may still stall due to on-going massive unemployment and other related problems.

[A2] HIGH INCOME GROUP SUFFER BIGGER FALL IN HOUSEHOLD INCOME According to a Singapore’s Department of Statistics (DOS) report released in February 2010, higher income groups in Singapore suffered larger decline in household income in 2009. Consequently, income distribution among employed households in Singapore has narrowed. Among all resident households, ‘median monthly household income from work’ dropped by $100 or 1.9% to S$4,850 in 2009 from a year ago. If CPI* in 2009 was taken into consideration, income dropped even greater at 2.5%.

*CPI = Consumer price inflation In 2009, among employed households (those with at least one working person), median household income from work was S$1,090 for those in HDB one & two-room flats, S$3,190 for HDB three-room flats, S$5,560 for HDB 4-room or larger flats, and S$12,500 for private flats, condominiums and private houses. All these indices were lower in 2009 when compared with 2008.

[A3] GROWTH PROJECTION RAISED FOR 2010 The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on 19 February 2010 that it expects gross domestic product to grow by 4.5% to 6.5% in 2010, up from a forecast of 3% to 5% made earlier in January 2010. For the whole of 2009, Singapore's GDP shrank by 2% following a revised 1.4% rise in 2008. The government also raised its 2010 trade growth outlook to a range of 9% to 11%. It expects non-oil domestic exports to rise by 10% to 12% this year. It lowered its 2010 inflation forecast to 2% to 3% from the previous 2.5% to 3.5% due to a rebasing of the consumer price index. However, it remains cautious for the economic outlook for the second half of the year.

[A4] MEASURES TO RID MARKET OF SPECULATORS On 19 February 2010, the Ministry of National Development (MND), Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) jointly introduced a series of calibrated measures to rid the property market of speculative elements. The following measures to ensure a stable and sustainable property market were to take immediate effect, including: (a) Lowering the LOAN-TO-VALUE (LTV) limit to 80% for all housing loans provided by financial institutions regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). (However,

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purchasers of HDB flats that are financed by HDB’s concessionary loans are not affected by the revised policy.) (b) Introducing a SELLER’S STAMP DUTY (SSD) on all residential properties and residential lands that are bought after 19 February 2010 and sold within a year from the date of purchase. (c) From January 2011, there will be a 3-TIER PROPERTY TAX RATE for all home owners where the first $6,000 of ANNUAL VALUE (AV) will be exempted from property tax. The next $59,000 AV will be taxed at 4% and the balance of AV above $65,000 will be taxed at 6%. All owner-occupied homes will enjoy tax savings of $240 as a result of the exemption of the first $6,000 of AV. (The property tax for non-owner-occupied residential properties as well as other properties will remain at a flat rate of 10% of AV.)

[See ANNEX A for details on the revised property tax rate and implications of the change in Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio and the implementation of the seller’s stamp duty.] [A.4.1] MORE MEASURES TO PREVENT OVERHEATING OF PROPERTY MARKET IN SINGAPORE On 5 March 2010, another series of measures to ensure financial prudence and to prevent ethnic enclaves in Singapore were introduced by the Housing and Development Board. [See

ANNEX B for details on the revised HDB policies.]

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(B) OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF PRIVATE HOME SEGMENT [B1] JANUARY NEW HOME SALES ROARED BACK TO LIFE Developers' home sales handed in an impressive report card in the JAN-FEB 2010 period with the first month of the year recording 1,480 new home units sold and the following month sustaining the run-up with a weaker, but nonetheless impressive 1,196 units sold. The January sales volume of 1,476 units was three times higher than the 481 transactions of new home units in December 2009. A pent-up demand built over the year-end festival period of 2009 was unleashed, bringing new home market back to life. Table [1] – COMPARISON OF NEW HOME UNITS SOLD BETWEEN DECEMBER 2009 AND ANUARY 2010

Core Central Region (CCR) Rest of Central Region (RCR) Outside Central Region (OCR) TOTAL

December 2009 218 150 113 481

New home units SOLD January 2010 February 2010 700 521 352 112 428 563 1,480 1,196

Source of Data: URA website

[B.1.1] NEW HOME SALES PERFORMANCE IN CORE CENTRAL REGION (CCR) The 1,480 units sold in January 2010 alone were about 80% of the 1,860 new homes sold in the entire Q4 2009 and 3 times the sales volume of December 2009. January's top-selling projects in the primary market were Cube 8 at Thomson Road (167 units), The Shore Residences in the Katong area (144 units), RV Edge along River Valley Road (91 units), Urban Suites in the Cairnhill area (88 units) and Parvis at Holland Hill (73 units). [See table 1-A below] The lowest psf price for a developer sale in January 2010 was for a unit sold at $544 psf at Oasis@Elias; the highest price of $3,243 psf was for an Orchard View unit. Below shows the detailed sales data by districts: Table [1-A] – NEW HOME UNITS SOLD IN CCR IN JANUARY 2010 Project Name Units launched so far but UNSOLD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Cube 8 RV Edge Urban Suites Parvis Holland Residences Cyan Espada Skyline 360° at St Thomas Walk Trilight

10 17 19 36 9 80 121 0 30

Units Sold in the Month 167 91 88 73 63 37 33 18 18

Highest Price ($psf) 1,444 1,900 2,921 1,691 1,843 2,050 2,771 2,168 1,869

Lowest Price ($psf) 1,163 1,441 2,213 1,233 1,466 1,702 1,995 1,786 1,669

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Median Price ($ psf) 1,286 1,696 2,506 1,515 1,694 1,937 2,475 1,935 1,754

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10 Lincoln Suites 11 Estrivillas 12 Shelford Suites 13 Sophia Residence 14 Luma 15 The Wharf Residence 16 The Trizon 17 Latitude 18 The Greenwood (Phase 5) 19 Adria 20 Vivace 21 Attitude at Kim Yam 22 D'Ixoras 23 Fifty-Two Stevens 24 Marina Bay Suites 25 Martin No 38 26 Signature At Lewis 27 Soleil @ Sinaran 28 The Promont 29 Waterscape At Cavenagh 30 Belle Vue Residences 31 Icon 32 Kasara 33 Lumiere 34 Marina Collection 35 Miro 36 Mulberry Tree 37 Orchard View 38 Shamrock Villas 39 Whitley Villas TOTAL UNITS SOLD = 700

8 15 1 19 5 7 67 9 27 31 0 0 15 14 1 0 7 42 5 0 34 6 0 4 24 6 7 0 10 3

13 11 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2,338 725 1,551 1,562 1,717 1,172 1,530 1,899 950 1,619 1,987 1,464 1,231 1,938 2,506 2,154 1,358 1,675 2,122 2,010 2,354 1,580 1,650 1,660 2,500 1,642 1,299 3,243 746 812

1,707 590 1,396 1,099 1,672 1,093 1,280 1,738 900 1,546 1,469 1,379 1,094 1,906 2,325 2,126 1,227 1,614 2,115 1,941 2,354 1,580 1,650 1,660 2,500 1,642 1,299 3,243 746 812

1,762 705 1,433 1,273 1,705 1,120 1,423 1,769 938 1,611 1,730 1,380 1,167 1,938 2,506 2,140 1,293 1,645 2,119 1,976 2,354 1,580 1,650 1,660 2,500 1,642 1,299 3,243 746 812

Source of Data: URA website

The launch of Altez, Waterscape at Cavenagh, The Laurels and L’VIV dominated the limelight in CCR in February 2010 with Altez at Enggor Street (Tanjong Pagar area) topping the chart with 150 units sold. There were also 10 more projects with at least one transaction compared with the total of 39 projects in January 2010. Table [1-B] – NEW HOME UNITS SOLD IN CCR IN FEBRUARY 2010 Project Name Units launched so Units Sold in far but UNSOLD the Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Altez Waterscape At Cavenagh The Laurels L'VIV Centennia Suites Trilight Cyan RV Edge Holland Residences Espada Parvis

53 0 0 8 11 12 84 3 8 110 25

150 82 41 40 19 18 17 14 13 11 11

Highest Price ($psf) 2,397 2,020 2,970 2,185 2,175 1,921 2,499 1,731 1,889 2,650 1,555

Lowest Price ($psf) 1,600 1,715 2,041 1,868 1,888 1,670 1,837 1,500 1,520 2,280 1,458

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Median Price ($ psf) 1,817 1,877 2,741 1,981 2,000 1,738 2,001 1,679 1,568 2,405 1,539

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12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Cube 8 Adria Kasara Martin No 38 Sophia Residence Vivace Luma The Wharf Residence Urban Suites Estrivillas Fifty-Two Stevens Nassim Park Residences Shelford Suites The Trizon VIVA 8 Rodyk Illoura Latitude The Greenwood (Phase 5) The Orchard Residences Belle Vue Residences Duchess Royale Estilo Icon Landed housing development Lincoln Suites Lumiere Lush on Holland Hill Marina Bay Suites Marina Collection Mulberry Tree Seven Palms Sentosa Cove Skyline 360° at St Thomas Walk Soleil @ Sinaran The Oliv The Orange Grove The Ritz-Carlton Residences Singapore Cairnhill 49 Whitley Villas TOTAL UNITS SOLD = 521

4 24 0 0 13 0 0 7 14 11 10 11 7 63 0 7 16 7 29 0 33 12 0 5 4 7 3 5 0 23 6 0 0 41 0 9 0

8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1,307 1,635 1,780 2,470 1,780 2,082 1,682 1,208 2,693 705 1,986 3,460 1,551 1,460 1,310 1,796 1,101 2,074 945 3,587 2,043 1,649 1,050 1,747 2,024 1,900 2,000 1,502 2,333 2,500 1,388 3,318 1,833 1,640 2,242 2,290 3,762

1,235 1,449 1,580 2,077 1,272 1,969 1,664 1,169 2,132 660 1,642 2,903 1,077 1,350 1,242 1,642 1,052 2,034 944 3,506 2,043 1,649 1,050 1,747 2,024 1,900 2,000 1,502 2,333 2,500 1,388 3,318 1,833 1,640 2,242 2,290 3,762

1,252 1,611 1,746 2,325 1,603 2,035 1,670 1,185 2,594 698 1,811 3,202 1,396 1,419 1,273 1,719 1,077 2,054 945 3,547 2,043 1,649 1,050 1,747 2,024 1,900 2,000 1,502 2,333 2,500 1,388 3,318 1,833 1,640 2,242 2,290 3,762

1,036

Source of Data: URA website

CASE STUDY [1] – NEW HOME SALES IN CCR

PRICE COMPARISON BETWEEN DECEMBER 2009 AND JANUARY 2010 IN CCR Six projects in the Core Central Region (CCR) were selected for this case study to ascertain the price movements in the most coveted prime areas in Singapore. The transacted prices and sales volume of the six projects in January 2010 were compared with the performance of the previous months at the same locality.

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FINDING {1} – OF CASE STUDY [1] SALES OF NEW HOME UNITS SOARED IN JAN 2010 BUT STABILISED IN FEB 2010 IN CCR It has been established that the 700 units sold in January 2010 represents a whopping 220% rise in volume over the 218 new home units sold in the same region in December 2009. However, the sales volume receded to 521 new units in February 2010. The February performance was 25.6% drop in sales volume when compared to the more robust January 2010. However, when compared to the same month last year, this February’s sales volume in CCR was a whopping 4.8 times spike in primary sales volume. FINDING {2} – OF CASE STUDY [1] PRICES OF NEW HOME UNITS WOBBLED Unlike the volatile sales volume, prices of the new home units in CCR wobbled within a very narrow range of less than 6%, with equal number of projects sharing the fortune and misfortune of the price drops and price gains. See selected details below: PRICE COMPARISON FOR CCR PROJECTS BETWEEN DECEMBER 2009 & JANUARY 2010 In the drop zone

In DECEMBER 2009, 59 units at Urban Suites at Hullet Road were sold at a median price of $2,521 psf, compared with 88 units sold at a median price of $2,506 psf in JANUARY 2010. It was a 0.6% drop in the median price.

In DECEMBER 2009, 7 units at Trilight at Newton Road were sold at a median price of $1,769 psf, compared with 18 units sold at a median price of $1,754 psf in JANUARY 2010. It was a 0.85% drop in the median price.

In DECEMBER 2009, 8 units at Lincoln Suites at Khiang Guan Avenue were sold at a median price of $1,939 psf, compared with 13 units sold at a median price of $1,762 psf in JANUARY 2010. It was a 9.13% drop in the median price.

On the way up

In DECEMBER 2009, 21 units at Espada at St Thomas Walk were sold at a median price of $2,337 psf, compared with 33 units sold at a median price of $2,475 psf in January 2010. This represents a 5.91% rise in price.

In DECEMBER 2009, 21 units at Parvis at Holland Hill were sold at a median price of $1,495 psf, compared with 73 units sold at a median price of $1,515 psf in January 2010. This represents a 1.34% rise in price.

In DECEMBER 2009, 23 units at Cyan at Bt Timah/Keng Chin Road were sold at a median price of $1,905 psf, compared with 37 units sold at a median price of $1,937 psf in January 2010. This represents a 1.68% rise in price.

Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

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PRICE COMPARISON FOR CCR PROJECTS BETWEEN JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2010 In the drop zone

In JANUARY 2010, 91 units at RV Edge at River Valley Road were sold at a median price of $1,696 psf. Compared with the 14 units sold at a median price of $1,679 psf in FEB 2010, it was a 0.87% drop in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 63 units at Holland Residences were sold at a median price of $1,694 psf. Compared with the 13 units sold at a median price of $1,568 psf in FEB 2010, it was a 7.44% drop in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 33 units at Espada were sold at a median price of $2,475 psf. Compared with the 11 units sold at a median price of $2,405 psf in FEB 2010, it represents 2.83% drop in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 18 units at Trilight at Newton Road were sold at a median price of $1,754 psf. Compared with the 18 units sold at a median price of $1,738 psf in FEB 2010, it is a 0.92% drop in price.

On the way up

In JANUARY 2010, 73 units at Parvis at Holland Hill were sold at a median price of $1,515 psf. Compared with the 11 units sold at a median price of $1,539 psf in FEB 2010, this represents a 1.59% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 5 units at Latitude at River Valley Road area were sold at a median price of $1,769 psf. Compared with the 2 units sold at a median price of $2,054 psf in FEB 2010, it is a 16.11% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 37 units at Cyan at Bt Timah/Keng Chin Road were sold at a median price of $1,937 psf. Compared with the 17 units sold at a median price of $2,001 psf in FEB 2010, it is a 3.31% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 88 units at Urban Suites at Hullet Road were sold at a median price of $2,506 psf. Compared with the 5 units sold at a median price of $2,594 psf in FEB 2010, this represents a 3.52% rise in price.

Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

FINDING {3} – OF CASE STUDY [1] HIGHEST AND LOWEST PSF SALE PRICES OF NEW HOME UNITS IN CCR Table [1-A-1] Highest psf prices in January 2010 at CCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 Orchard View 3,243 2 Urban Suites 2,921 3 Espada 2,771 4 Marina Bay Suites 2,506 Source of data: URA

Out of the 39 projects in CCR that recorded at least one transaction in January 2010, the above four projects had at least one new home unit that was sold at above the psychological price barrier of $2,500 psf. Table [1-B-1] Highest psf prices in February 2010 at CCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 The Ritz-Carlton Residences 3,762 Singapore Cairnhill 2 The Orchard Residences 3,587 3 Nassim Park Residences 3,460 4 Seven Palms Sentosa Cove 3,318 5 The Laurels 2,970 6 Urban Suites 2,693 7 Espada 2,650 8 Marina Collection 2,500 Source of data: URA

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The number of projects with units sold above the $2,500 psf psychological price barrier rose to eight in February 2010. Table [1-A-2] Lowest psf prices in January 2010 at CCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 The Greenwood (Phase 5) 900 2 Whitley Villas 812 3 Shamrock Villas 746 4 Estrivillas 590 Source of data: URA

Table [1-B-2] Lowest psf prices in February 2010 at CCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 The Greenwood (Phase 5) 944 2 Estrivillas 660 Source of data: URA

CONCLUSION – OF CASE STUDY [1] IMPACT OF MARKET INTERVENTION BY GOVERNMENT UNKNOWN The above statistics in Table [1-A-1] to Table [1-B-2] verified that more new home projects are selling at higher psf prices and fewer are selling at lower psf prices. They clearly showed a much improved market sentiment in February 2010 over the preceding month. However, how the slew of negative government measures will impact the real estate market deserves close monitoring in the next few months, especially after the eventual opening of the second Integrated Resort (IR) at Marina Bay Sands in late April 2010.

[B.1.2] NEW HOME SALES PERFORMANCE IN REST OF CENTRAL REGION (RCR) New home sales in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) took on a roller coastal ride in the previous three months between December 2009 and February 2010. TABLE [1-1] 3-MONTH COMPARISON OF NEW HOME SALES VOLUME IN RCR FROM DECEMBER 09 TO FEB 2010

Rest of Central Region (RCR)

December 2009 150

New home units SOLD January 2010 February 2010 352 112

Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

New home sales volume spiked 230% in January 2010 to 352 units sold from the dismal showing of 150 units sold in December 2009 (See table [1-1] above). However, it was followed by a surprised 68.2% drop to only 112 new units sold in February 2010 due to the lack of new projects launches in that month. Tables [1-C] and [1-D] below show the details. Table [1-C] – NEW HOME UNITS SOLD IN RCR IN JANUARY 2010 Project Name Units launched so far Units Sold in but UNSOLD the Month 1 The Shore Residences 117 144 2 The Interlace 79 24 3 The Tier 17 20 4 Trevista 49 18 5 Prestige Heights 8 17

Highest Price ($psf) 1,418 1,086 1,297 1,115 1,506

Lowest Price ($psf) 1,043 957 1,157 867 1,146

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Median Price ($ psf) 1200 1056 1217 947 1336

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6 Clover By The Park 7 Silversea 8 Dakota Residences 9 Melrose Ville 10 Moda 11 Reflections at Keppel Bay 12 The Peak @ Balmeg 13 Concourse Skyline 14 Floridian 15 Vista Residences 16 Ascentia Sky 17 Jardin 18 Parc Seabreeze 19 The Arte 20 The Seafront On Meyer 21 The Serennia 22 Beacon Heights 23 Ceylon Residence 24 Ola Residences 25 Stillz Residence 26 The Beverly 27 Aalto 28 City Studios 29 Domus 30 Esta Ruby 31 Spring @ Langsat 32 St Michael Regency 33 Studios @ Marne 34 The Rochester 35 Tropics @ Haigsville TOTAL UNITS SOLD = 352

97 184 33 12 20 24 12 30 100 38 15 57 22 3 31 11 25 8 3 10 5 78 0 9 39 7 21 9 0 0

16 14 12 11 10 8 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

961 1,886 1,009 1,288 1,273 2,245 1,091 1,880 1,512 1,471 1,371 1,840 1,490 1,226 1,496 1,025 870 987 1,000 961 762 2,011 858 1,260 929 725 841 934 1,330 853

673 1,223 945 1,093 1,172 1,634 1,007 1,496 1,339 1,310 1,267 1,617 1,394 1,106 1,359 681 855 835 978 920 742 2,011 858 1,260 929 725 841 934 1,330 853

844 1528 967 1196 1221 1670 1022 1788 1448 1324 1289 1800 1435 1132 1474 935 863 911 989 941 752 2,011 858 1,260 929 725 841 934 1,330 853

Source of data: URA

As investors trained their eyes on the multiple new home launches in CCR, new home units in RCR lost their lustre and ended the month with only 112 new units sold. Moreover, there were no new projects being introduced in RCR in that month. Table [1-D] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; NEW HOME UNITS SOLD IN RCR IN FEBRUARY 2010 Cumulative Units Units Sold in Project Name Launched but the Month Unsold 1 Trevista 31 18 2 The Shore Residences 106 15 3 Silversea 173 11 4 Clover By The Park 87 10 5 Floridian 195 5 6 The Serennia 6 5 7 The Tier 12 5 8 Meier Suites 0 4 9 Vista Residences 35 4 10 Dakota Residences 31 3 11 Prestige Heights 5 3 12 The Interlace 76 3

Lowest Price ($psf)

Highest Price ($psf)

Median Price ($psf)

1,118 1,436 1,946 897 1,444 930 1,281 1,444 1,346 980 1,467 1,059

872 1,129 1,273 655 1,340 900 1,165 1,338 1,218 947 1,337 950

981 1,262 1,486 824 1,430 910 1,236 1,378 1,325 978 1,376 1,004

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13 The Peak @ Balmeg 14 The Verve 15 Concourse Skyline 16 Jardin 17 Reflections at Keppel Bay 18 The Seafront On Meyer 19 Aalto 20 Ascentia Sky 21 Centrina 22 Ceylon Residence 23 Haig Residences 24 Heritage 9 25 Melrose Ville 26 Parc Aston 27 Parc Seabreeze 28 Spring @ Langsat 29 St Michael Regency 30 The Ariel TOTAL UNITS SOLD = 112

9 0 29 55 22 29 77 14 7 7 11 0 11 8 21 6 20 2

3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1,007 921 1,939 1,903 2,306 1,470 1,648 1,250 960 820 1,146 1,422 1,104 900 1,265 855 860 766

1,000 597 1,697 1,626 2,014 1,465 1,648 1,250 960 820 1,146 1,422 1,104 900 1,265 855 860 766

1,007 624 1,818 1,765 2,160 1,468 1,648 1,250 960 820 1,146 1,422 1,104 900 1,265 855 860 766

Source of data: URA

CASE STUDY [2] – NEW HOME SALES IN RCR

PRICE COMPARISON BETWEEN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2010 IN RCR SIX (6) projects were selected for this case study to ascertain the price movements in the Rest of Central Region (RCR). The sale performance of February and January 2010 of the selected projects in RCR were compared so as to determine which way new home prices are heading. FINDING {1} – OF CASE STUDY [2] SALES OF NEW HOME UNITS TOOK A TUMBLE IN FEB 2010 IN RCR In January 2010, a total of 35 new home projects in RCR reported at least one transaction, with The Shore Residences at Katong selling 144 units for at least $1,043 psf. Altogether, RCR started the new year with a respectable 352 transactions. However, its sales performance was upstaged by five new projects being launched in the Core Central Region (CCR) in February 2010. Price wise, the rise and fall were all restricted to a narrow range of below 6% difference. See price comparison below: PRICE COMPARISON OF RCR PROJECTS BETWEEN JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2010 In the drop zone

In JANUARY 2010, 24 units at The Interlace at Depot Road were sold at a median price of $1,056 psf. Compared with 3 units sold at a median price of $1,004 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, it was a 4.93% drop in the median price.

In JANUARY 2010, 14 units at Silversea at Amber Road were sold at a median price of $1,528 psf. Compared with the 11 units sold at a median price of $1,486 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, it was a 2.75% drop in the median price.

In JANUARY 2010, 16 units at Clover by the Park at Bishan St 25 were sold at a median price of $844 psf.

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Compared with the 10 units sold at a median price of $824 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, it was a 2.37% drop in the median price. On the way up

In JANUARY 2010, 144 units at The Shore Residences at Katong were sold at a median price of $1,200 psf. Compared with the 15 units sold at a median price of $1,262 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, this represents a 5.17% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 20 units at The Tier at Pegu Road were sold at a median price of $1,217 psf. Compared with the 5 units sold at a median price of $1,236 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, this represents a 1.57% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 18 units at Trevista at Lorong 3 Toa Payoh were sold at a median price of $947 psf. Compared with the 18 units sold at a median price of $981 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, this represents a 3.59% rise in price.

Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

FINDING {2} – OF CASE STUDY [2] HIGHEST AND LOWEST PSF SALE PRICES OF NEW HOME UNITS IN RCR The objective of this case study is to ascertain the extend of the current market confidence by looking at the number of home units transacted beyond the psychological price barrier at the respective regions, including CCR, RCR and OCR. Table [1-C-1] HIGHEST PSF PRICES IN JANUARY 2010 AT RCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 Reflections at Keppel Bay 2,245 2 Aalto 2,011 3 Silversea 1,886 4 Concourse Skyline 1,880 5 Jardin 1,840 6 Floridian 1,512 7 Prestige Heights 1,506 Source of data: URA

Out of the 35 projects in RCR that recorded at least one transaction in January 2010, seven projects had at least one new home unit that was sold above the $1,500 psf psychological barrier for new homes in RCR. Table [1-D-1] HIGHEST PSF PRICES IN February 2010 AT RCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 Reflections at Keppel Bay 2,306 2 Silversea 1,946 3 Concourse Skyline 1,939 4 Jardin 1,903 5 Aalto 1,648 Source of data: URA

However, primary home sales in RCR took a tumble in February 2010 recording only 112 new home units sold in 30 projects. Only five projects had at least one new home unit sold at above the $1,500 psf psychological barrier for new homes in RCR. This could mean either the price gap between the two regions (i.e. CCR and RCR) has narrowed; or the number of investors has drastically reduced. Let’s examine the price gap between the two regions.

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Out of the 49 projects in CCR in February 2010 which recorded at least one transaction, 14 of them had sold at least one unit at lower than $1,500 psf which is the price barrier of RCR. This confirms the narrowing of the price gap between the two regions – at least for February 2010. It remains to be seen whether this will become a trend. Table [1-C-2] LOWEST PSF PRICES IN JANUARY 2010 AT RCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 Clover By The Park 673 2 The Serennia 681 3 Spring @ Langsat 725 4 The Beverly 742 Source of data: URA

Table [1-D-2] LOWEST PSF PRICES IN FEBRUARY 2010 AT RCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 The Verve 597 2 Clover By The Park 655 3 The Ariel 766 Source of data: URA

The psychological threshold for RCR new home appears to be rock solid as very few new home projects need to lower their asking price to sub-$800 psf level. This can be seen from the fact that despite the tumble in volume, very few new home units were sold below the threshold of $800 psf. [B.1.3] PRIMARY HOME SALES REGAINED ‘LOST GROUND’ IN OCR In January 2010, the primary home sales segment in OCR regained much ‘lost ground’ and rebounded with a flurry. The 428 new home units sold in January 2010 was followed by an improvement of 135 more home units sold, bringing the total new home units old in OCR in February 2010 to 563 new home units sold. The sales growth was 31.5% over the preceding months, with more units sold at moderately highly psf median prices. Below are the details. Table [1.E] – NEW HOME UNITS SOLD IN OCR IN JANUARY 2010 Project Name Cumulative Units Units Sold in Launched but Unsold the Month 1 Livia 7 59 2 Siglap V 0 50 3 Residences Botanique 8 32 4 Double Bay Residences 14 31 5 Waterfront Key 180 27 6 Meadows @ Peirce 97 23 7 Cerelia Vista 0 21 8 Eastwood Regency 19 18 9 Mi Casa 84 15 10 Oasis @ Elias 27 14 11 Kovan Residences 16 13 12 Suites @ Kovan 2 11 13 The Parc Condominium 23 11 14 The Cotz 6 9 15 Centro Residences 73 7

Lowest Price ($psf) 673 1,634 1,246 746 944 1,146 393 1,218 828 665 1,009 1,225 1,049 1,237 1,233

Highest Price ($psf) 618 1,152 844 560 709 736 353 938 680 544 861 849 880 1,161 1,164

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Median Price ($psf) 645 1508 1015 697 763 915 388 1198 731 618 954 1196 900 1185 1170

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16 Pavilion Park (Phase 2) 17 Waterfront Waves 18 Glasgow Residence 19 Luxus Hills 20 The Gale 21 Elliot at the East Coast 22 Hundred Trees 23 The Lenox 24 Hillvista 25 St Patrick's Residences 26 Wembly Residences 27 Rosewood Suites 28 Whitescape 29 Aston Green 30 Cabana 31 D'Pavilion 32 Envio 33 Fontaine Parry 34 CuBik 35 Dunsfold Residences 36 Evania 37 Idyllic East 38 La Dolce Vita 39 Landed housing development 40 Riz Haven 41 Serangoon Garden View 42 Suncottages 43 The Amery 44 The Lattiz 45 Verdana Villas TOTAL UNITS SOLD = 428

1 21 10 2 22 9 12 8 62 9 3 5 9 6 27 26 17 4 0 4 2 0 1 5 7 2 21 23 8 38

7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

932 925 1,285 1,158 788 1,538 922 1,006 1,095 1,048 919 611 1,161 425 610 988 985 908 1,218 451 700 800 850 878 752 682 800 947 817 642

791 729 959 988 728 883 891 849 1,022 964 812 548 1,003 418 600 980 960 631 1,218 451 700 800 850 878 752 682 800 947 817 642

792 747 1219 1128 745 1056 909 911 1066 1046 906 609 1123 422 605 984 973 770 1,218 451 700 800 850 878 752 682 800 947 817 642

Source of data: URA

The buying interests in OCR continued into February 2010 with the launch of The Estuary at Yishun which mesmerised buyers from the immediate HDB heartlands. The water-front project sold 386 units and single-handedly revived the fortune of OCR in February 2010. Table [1.F] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; NEW HOME UNITS SOLD IN OCR IN FEBRUARY 2010 Project Name Units launched so far Units Sold in but UNSOLD the Month 1 2 3 4 6 5 7 8 9 10 11

The Estuary The Ebony Meadows @ Peirce The Parc Condo Residences Botanique Mi Casa Double Bay Residences Waterfront Key Livia Centro Residences Waterfront Waves

64 7 75 9 28 71 2 169 0 68 17

386 25 22 14 13 13 12 11 7 5 5

Lowest Price ($psf)

Highest Price ($psf)

Median Price ($ psf)

921 1,333 1,110 1,031 1,333 794 705 965 648 1,223 914

633 1,084 737 777 910 686 572 732 633 1,161 787

757 1265 924 925 1063 727 687 775 638 1220 900

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13 Elliot at the East Coast 12 Cerelia Vista 16 St Patrick's Residences 15 Pavilion Park (Phase 2) 14 Envio 17 Wembly Residences 19 CuBik 20 Eastwood Regency 24 The Cotz 23 Luxus Hills 21 Hundred Trees 22 Landed housing 18 Aston Green 30 Hillvista 28 D'Pavilion 40 Whitescape 31 Kovan Residences 32 La Dolce Vita 27 D'Oasia 38 The Lattiz 29 Fontaine Parry 37 The Gale 25 3@Sandilands 35 Oasis @ Elias 39 Verdana Villas 26 Coastal Breeze Residences 36 Rosewood Suites 33 Lynwood Eight 34 Matlock Residences TOTAL UNITS SOLD = 563

8 17 6 1 14 0 0 17 4 0 10 12 4 61 25 9 15 0 5 7 3 21 1 26 37 13 4 0 3

4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1,077 450 1,055 960 998 949 1,367 1,247 1,185 1,131 922 979 415 1,131 973 900 893 875 842 829 824 766 701 646 644 532 530 518 466

806 450 919 905 868 861 1,367 1,247 1,174 912 908 704 413 1,131 973 900 893 875 842 829 824 766 701 646 644 532 530 518 466

1025 450 930 905 950 947 1367 1247 1180 1022 915 842 414 1,131 973 900 893 875 842 829 824 766 701 646 644 532 530 518 466

Source of data: URA

CASE STUDY [3] – IN OUTSIDE CENTRAL REGION (OCR)

PRICE COMPARISON BETWEEN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2010 New home sales in OCR bounced back from the December slip by registering a respectable volume of 428 transactions in January 2010. The buying momentum was carried forward into February 2010 to reach 563 new home transactions. The sales growth was 31.6% over January 2010.

December 2009 Outside Central Region (OCR) 113 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

New home units SOLD January 2010 February 2010 428 563

FINDING {1} – OF CASE STUDY [3] SALES OF NEW HOME UNITS IN OCR REGAINED MOMENTUM FROM DECEMBER SLIP OCR was the only region which still grew despite the slew of government measures to curb excessive speculation. This may be due to the fact that traditionally, foreign buyers do not favour OCR and as such the sales volume is less volatile as in the other two regions.

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FINDING {2} – OF CASE STUDY [3] MORE NEW HOME UNITS IN OCR SOLD AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER PSF PRICES Price wise, there were more ups than downs in OCR, though the quantum of the price increase was small. On the way up

In JANUARY 2010, 32 units at Residences Botanique at Sirat Road were sold at a median price of $1,015 psf. Compared with the 13 units sold at a median price of $1,063 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, this represents a 4.73% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 7 units at Waterfront Key at Bedok Reservoir Road were sold at a median price of $763 psf. Compared with the 11 units sold at a median price of $775 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, this represents a 1.58% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 7 units at Centrol Residences at Ave Mo Kio Ave 8 were sold at a median price of $1,170 psf. Compared with the 5 units sold at a median price of $1,220 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, this represents a 4.28% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 11 units at The Parc Condo at West Coast Walk were sold at a median price of $900 psf. Compared with the 14 units sold at a median price of $925 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, this represents a 2.78% rise in price.

In JANUARY 2010, 23 units at Meadows@ Peirce Upper Thomson Road were sold at a median price of $915 psf. Compared with the 22 units sold at a median price of $924 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, this represents a 0.99% rise in price.

In the drop zone

In JANUARY 2010, 31 units at Double Bay Residences at Simei Street 4 were sold at a median price of $697 psf. Compared with the 12 units sold at a median price of $687 psf in FEBRUARY 2010, it was a 1.44% drop in the median price.

Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

FINDING {3} – OF CASE STUDY [3] HIGHEST AND LOWEST PSF SALE PRICES OF NEW HOME UNITS AT OCR Table [1-E-1] HIGHEST PSF PRICES IN JANUARY 2010 AT OCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 Siglap V 1,634 2 Elliot at the East Coast 1,538 3 Glasgow Residence 1,285 4 Residences Botanique 1,246 5 The Cotz 1,237 6 Centro Residences 1,233 7 Suites @ Kovan 1,225 8 Eastwood Regency 1,218 9 CuBik 1,218 Source of data: URA

Out of the 45 projects in OCR that recorded at least one transaction in January 2010, the above nine projects had at least one new home unit that was sold above the $1,200 psf psychological barrier for new homes in OCR.

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Table [1-F-1] HIGHEST PSF PRICES IN FEBRUARY 2010 AT OCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 CuBik 1,367 2 Eastwood Regency 1,247 Source of data: URA

However, despite the 31.6% rise in primary home sales and the general and slight price increases in OCR, only TWO projects had at least one new home unit that was sold above the $1,200 psf psychological barrier for new homes in OCR. On the other hand, more new home units in OCR were sold at cheaper prices in February 2010. This could be due to the fact that buyers in OCR are more ‘price-sensitive’ as compared with investors prowling in CCR or RCR for opportunities. Table [1-E-2] LOWEST PSF PRICES IN JANUARY 2010 AT OCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 Cerelia Vista 353 2 Aston Green 418 3 Dunsfold Residences 451 4 Oasis @ Elias 544 5 Rosewood Suites 548 6 Double Bay Residences 560 Source of data: URA

Table [1-F-2] LOWEST PSF PRICES IN FEBRUARY 2010 AT OCR PROJECT NAME SALE PRICE ($PSF) 1 Aston Green 413 2 Cerelia Vista 450 3 Matlock Residences 466 4 Lynwood Eight 518 5 Rosewood Suites 530 6 Coastal Breeze Residences 532 7 Double Bay Residences 572 Source of data: URA

Figures at Tables [1-E-2] and [1-F-2] showed that more new home units were sold at competitive unit psf prices in January-February period in OCR. The support price level for new home units in OCR appears to be at the sub-$600 psf level, which means that few property developers would need to resort to pricing below the threshold of $600 psf at this uncertain moment where the government favours a larger role and pro-active intervention to prevent a property price bubble.

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[B.2] PRIVATE RESALE VOLUME SOARED IN JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2010 PERIOD There were 1,128 resale deals in January 2010 and 1,167 resale deals in February 2010 and these are 437% rise over the 210 resale deals in January 2009 and 382% rise over the 242 resale deals in February 2009. [B.2.1] WHO ON EARTH ARE BUYING THOSE HOUSES? It has always been assumed that property rallies in Singapore are caused by massive foreign participation, especially at this moment with the inflow of ‘cheap money’ from Europe and the United States. It has also been frequently theorised that it was HDB flat dwellers that are cashing in on the appreciated value of HDB flats to move upscale into private homes. Was it really an ‘upward mobility’ of the middle-income households who have so far been living modestly in the heartlands? Are we witnessing the ‘flight to quality’ due to an improved socio-economic circumstance of the middle-income groups in Singapore? Or is it a case of a typical property speculation gathering momentum? The following TWO case studies seek to ascertain whether the recent property rally was fuelled: (1) by the soaring resale prices of HDB flats; and/or (2) by foreign participation. Particular attention has been paid to two areas: (1) the purchaser’s profile of Singaporean purchasers; and (2) the nationalities of foreign purchasers with emphasis placed on the supposed participation of buyers from Europe, United Kingdom (U.K.) and the United States of America (USA) where most of the so-called ‘cheap money’ originated. CASE STUDY [4] – DID THE HDB FLAT OWNERS DO IT?

PRIVATE HOME OWNERS VERSUS HDB FLAT DWELLERS The case study pitted private home owners against HDB flat dwellers so as to ascertain ‘who’ bought more of the houses in the first two months of the year. Table [2] shows that purchasers with private property addresses dominated the proceeding at popular and prime areas such as Districts 1, 4, 9, 10 and 11 in both January & February 2010

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D7

21 6 33 25 41 2

15 3 22 21 27 1

71.4% 50% 66.7% 84% 65.9% 50%

6 3 11 4 14 1

28.6% 50% 33.3% 16% 34.1% 50%

D15 D16 D17 D18 D19 D20

137 74 25 61 90 37

94 45 13 33 52 26

68.6% 60.8% 52% 54.1% 57.8% 70.3%

Purchasers with HDB flat addresses

Purchasers with private home addresses

Resale Transactions

Purchasers with HDB flat addresses

Purchasers with private home addresses

Resale Transactions

Table [2-A] – PROFILE OF PURCHASERS IN JANUARY 2010

43 29 12 28 38 11

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31.4% 39.2% 48% 45.9% 42.2% 29.7%

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D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14

39 63 81 49 29 10 58

22 53 67 36 16 5 31

17 10 14 13 13 5 27

56.4% 84.1% 82.7% 73.5% 55.2% 50% 53.5%

43.6 15.9% 17.3% 26.5% 44.8% 50% 46.5%

D21 D22 D23 D25 D26 D27 D28

65 33 119 9 8 15 15

43 16 55 4 4 4 7

66.2% 48.5% 46.2% 44.5% 50% 26.7% 46.7%

22 17 64 5 4 11 8

33.8% 51.5% 53.8% 55.5% 50% 73.3% 53.3%

Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14

15 7 39 28 50 10 32 80 97 73 40 12 50

9 7 26 23 29 6 21 65 84 60 20 5 27

60% 100% 66.7% 82.1% 58% 60% 65.6% 82.1% 86.6% 82.2% 50% 41.7% 54%

6 0 13 5 21 4 11 15 13 13 20 7 23

40% 0% 33.3% 17.9% 42% 40% 34.4% 17.9% 13.4% 17.8% 50% 58.3% 46%

D15 D16 D17 D18 D19 D20 D21 D22 D23 D25 D26 D27 D28

160 107 21 49 55 36 71 30 88 9 16 23 19

120 76 12 33 31 25 47 14 42 3 8 8 7

75.0% 71.0% 57.2% 67.4% 56.4% 69.5% 66.2% 46.7% 47.7% 33.3% 50% 34.8% 36.8%

Purchasers with HDB flat addresses

Purchasers with private home addresses

Resale Transactions

Purchasers with HDB flat addresses

Purchasers with private home addresses

Resale Transactions

Table [2-B] – PROFILE OF PURCHASERS IN FEBRUARY 2010

40 31 9 16 24 11 24 16 46 6 8 15 12

25.0% 29.0% 42.8% 32.6% 43.6% 30.5% 33.8% 53.3% 52.3% 66.7% 50% 65.2% 63.2%

Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

Table [2-C] – SUMMARY OF THE PURCHASER’S PROFILE

Resale Transactions

JANUARY 2010 FEBRUARY 2010

TOTAL

1,145 1,217 2,362

Purchasers’ Profile Those with private home addresses Units Sold 715 808 1,523

% 62.45% 66.4% 64.5%

Those with HDB flat addresses Units Sold 430 409 839

% 37.56% 33.6% 35.5%

Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

FINDING {1} – OF CASE STUDY [4]

First thing first. There was no evidence linking HDB flat owners to the recent property rally. From Table [2-C], it is clear that it was private home owners who have been snapping up more units in the private resale market. Here are the detailed numbers: out of the total 1,145 private resale transactions selected for the case study, only 430 deals or 37.56% were done by purchasers with HDB addresses while 715 or 62.45% of the transactions were by purchasers who used private home addresses. This simply means that private home owners accounted for far more private home purchases in most of the locations in the January-February 2010 period.

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The finding of this case study is inconsistent with the notion that the current property rally was supported by soaring prices of resale HDB flats. While it is true that HDB resale prices have grown from strength to strength, private home owners seemed to have out-muscled HDB flat dwellers in the private resale market in the January-February 2010 period. CASE STUDY [5] – DID THE FOREIGNERS DO IT?

FOREIGN BUYERS VERSUS SINGAPOREANS Table [3-A] shows the number of private non-landed home units purchased by foreigners in January 2010 – the figures include primary sales and secondary sales (but exclude sub-sales).

TOTAL

1 D1 2 2 D2 2 1 D3 3 5 1 3 5 D4 5 2 5 D5 5 2 2 5 D7 1 D8 1 3 2 3 10 D9 7 5 22 5 19 D10 12 3 18 5 16 D11 11 5 6 1 7 D12 8 3 4 1 4 D13 1 1 D14 2 2 8 D15 20 15 7 9 27 D16 4 5 2 6 9 D17 1 3 D18 6 4 1 9 7 D19 4 6 3 6 6 D20 5 2 3 1 1 D21 4 3 2 1 6 D22 2 5 1 1 4 D23 16 13 4 6 7 D25 2 2 2 D26 5 1 1 D27 4 D28 1 2 Total 120 93 84 65 152 % 7.55% 5.86% 5.28% 4.10% 9.57% Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

SINGAPOREAN

Others

India

Indonesia

China

Malaysia

Table [3-A] – RANKING OF TOP BUYERS BY NATIONALITIES IN JANUARY 2010

16 2 18 24 32 4 20 52 80 45 46 8 54 194 81 22 76 83 32 51 20 78 7 6 11 12 1,074 67.64%

21 5 35 36 46 5 39 110 134 75 66 10 66 272 107 26 103 108 44 67 33 124 13 13 15 15 1,588 100%

In all, a total of 514 foreign buyers accounted for 32.37% of all the 1,588 private home purchases (including primary & secondary sales but excluding sub-sales) in January 2010.

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Table [3-B] shows the number of private non-landed home units purchased by foreigners in February 2010 – the figures include primary sales and secondary sales (but exclude sub-sales).

TOTAL

D1 1 2 D2 3 1 D3 2 5 1 5 3 D4 1 3 1 1 7 D5 2 3 7 1 2 D7 2 2 D8 2 2 3 4 10 D9 4 1 6 20 D10 3 4 7 18 D11 3 3 3 4 10 D12 1 1 2 5 D13 1 1 1 D14 4 4 1 4 D15 14 8 6 7 35 D16 13 5 11 2 8 D17 1 1 3 D18 16 5 1 2 D19 5 4 3 2 6 D20 2 1 3 D21 1 2 3 2 6 D22 1 1 7 1 D23 10 9 7 7 D25 1 2 D26 1 1 2 D27 1 1 1 1 D28 Total 76 71 65 49 158 % 6.2% 5.8% 5.3% 4.0% 12.9% Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

SINGAPOREANS

Others

India

Indonesia

China

Malaysia

Table [3-B] – RANKING OF TOP BUYERS BY NATIONALITIES IN FEBRUARY 2010

13 2 23 18 35 6 13 50 65 50 31 9 38 90 68 16 25 35 30 56 20 56 6 12 19 19 805 65.8%

16 6 39 31 50 10 34 81 97 73 40 12 51 160 107 21 49 55 36 70 30 89 9 16 23 19 1,224 100%

In February 2010, due to the slight drop in the private resale volume, a total of 419 foreign buyers accounted for 34.2% of all the private home purchases. Though the absolute number of foreign buyers dropped in February 2010, the percentage of foreign buyers actually inched up due to the lower resale private volume. That said, however, Singaporean buyers still featured prominently in the private resale market. In fact, local buyers as an independent category of buyers have decidedly out-purchased any other nationalities in the private resale purchases. Table [3-C] shows the market shares of Singapore properties owned by foreign buyers from the European Union (EU), the United States of America (USA) and the United Kingdom (UK) in the January-February 2010 period.

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CASE STUDY [5-1] – DID THE ANGMOS DO IT?

FOREIGN BUYERS FROM THE RICHER ‘WESTERN’ COUNTRIES Table [3-C] – COMPARISON OF BUYERS FROM ‘RICH NATIONS’ IN JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2010 EU USA U.K. JAN FEB JAN FEB JAN FEB D1 2 1 D2 1 D3 1 2 1 D4 1 1 1 D5 1 1 4 D7 1 D8 2 2 1 1 D9 1 1 3 5 10 D10 5 6 4 D11 1 1 2 D12-13 D14 2 1 1 D15 1 5 2 1 1 6 D16 2 2 D17 1 2 D18 2 D19 2 D20 1 D21 1 1 2 D22 1 D23 1 2 2 D25 1 D26 1 Total 14 25 3 11 28 31 % 0.89% 1.50% 0.66% 1.76% 1.86% Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

FINDING {1} – OF CASE STUDY [5]

The much-hyped about jostle by foreigners coming to buy Singapore properties has been debunked by official statistics. While it is true that the foreigner’s market share of private homes in Singapore has grown over recent months, the absolute quantum is negligible to say the least.

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[B.3] LANDED HOME SALES VOLUME GOING THROUGH LULL PERIODS There were a total of 276 conventional* landed home transactions in January 2010, in both the primary and secondary markets. *Conventional landed home do not include strata-titled landed homes including Cluster houses and townhouses.

Out of the total transactions, 37 were detached houses, 87 semi-detached houses, and 152 terrace houses. Another 28 strata-titled landed home transactions brought the total transactions to 305 houses sold (including the strata-titled landed houses) in the first month of the year. Table 2[A] to 2 [C] provide the detailed numbers. Table [4-A] – SALES PERFORMANCE OF DETACHED HOUSES in JANUARY 2010

D4 D10 D11 D13

1 4 8 1

D14 D15 D16 D17

3 8 3 1

3 3 1 1

D19 D21 D26 D27

Source of data: URA

Total = 37

Table [4-B] – SALES PERFORMANCE OF SEMI-D HOUSES IN JANUARY 2010

D4 D5 D10 D12 D13 D14

1 4 7 1 1 4

D15 D16 D17 D19 D20 D21

12 11 1 10 6 5

D22 D23 D26 D27 D28

Source of data: URA

1 3 5 1 14

Total = 87

Table [4-C] – SALES PERFORMANCE OF TERRACE HOUSES IN JANUARY 2010

D5 D8 D9 D11 D13 D14 D15

5 2 5 4 12 3 25

Source of data: URA

D16 D17 D18 D19 D20 D21

12 3 1 34 15 3

D22 D23 D25 D26 D27 D28

1 4 3 7 1 12

Total = 152

In February 2010, transactions of conventional landed home units eased 13.4% and came down a shade to 239 landed home units sold in both the primary and secondary markets. Out of the total transactions, 36 were detached houses, 69 semi-detached houses, and 134 terrace houses. Another 24 transactions of strata-titled home units brought the second month’s total transactions to 263 houses sold (including the strata-titled landed houses). The detailed statistics are at Tables [4-D], [4-E], and [4-F] below.

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Table [4-D] – SALES PERFORMANCE OF DETACHED HOUSES IN FEBRUARY 2010

4 1 9 5

D4 D5 D10 D11

3 2 5

D13 D14 D15

1 5 1

D17 D19 D21

Source of data: URA

Total = 36

Table [4-E] – SALES PERFORMANCE OF SEMI-D HOUSES IN FEBRUARY 2010

11 5 1 2 2

D10 D11 D13 D14 D15

4 1 18 1 6

D16 D17 D19 D20 D21

D23 D26 D27 D28

Source of data: URA

3 5 2 8

Total = 69

Table [4-F] – SALES PERFORMANCE OF TERRACE HOUSES IN FEBRUARY 2010

4 2 1 1 2 1 9

D5 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13

5 25 13 4 1 34 12

D14 D15 D16 D17 D18 D19 D20

D21 D22 D23 D25 D26 D27 D28

Source of data: URA

5 2 4 1 5 1 5

Total = 134

[B.3.1] COMPARISON OF LANDED HOME SALES VOLUM IN THE JAN-FEB 2010 PERIOD It is still early days trying to collate sufficient transaction data, let alone spotting a trend or making any meaningful forecast in the landed home segment. However, it is not difficult to see that there were fewer transactions in February 2010 compared with the preceding month (See Table 4-G below), probably due to the shorter month and the prolonged festive holidays. However, the sales volume in the spirited non-landed home segment (i.e. condos/apartments) was not affected by the recently-ended festive season. As such, argument wise, the slight decline in landed home segment cannot be disassociated with the larger economic situation. A summary of the sales volume in the first two months is shown in Table [4-G] below. Table [4-G] – SUB-TOTAL SALES VOLUME SO FAR IN THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF 2010

2010 JAN FEB

Detached 37 36

Semi-D 87 69

Terrace 152 134

Total 276 239

156

286

515

Sub-total Source of data: URA

Compared with the past year, the respective 305 and 263 landed home transactions in January and February 2010 can be considered to be on the ‘quiet’ side; and they can be compared with the lull periods of April-May 2009 and November-December 2009. [See table 4[H] below for comparison] A Free Quarterly Magazine published by Sam Gian [The Independent Real Estate Sales Consultant]

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Table [4-H] – SALES PERFORMANCE OF LANDED HOME UNITS IN 2009

2009 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

TOTAL

Detached 13 8 21 37 54 64 73 68 44 59 32 31

Semi-D 35 22 50 87 97 158 116 109 100 90 86 58

Terrace 49 57 99 134 171 246 350 271 191 206 190 133

Total 97 87 170 261 324 473 539 443 340 355 308 222

504

1,008

2,097

3,609

Source of data: URA

[B.3.2] PRICE COMPARISON OF LANDED HOMES The approach adopted in this case study is by comparing two sets of transacted prices for landed home units in different time periods [i.e. February 2009 and February 2010] using two sets of transacted prices – one tests the PSYCHOLOGICAL PRICE BARRIER i.e. beyond $1,200 psf for a landed home unit, and another set tests the SUPPORT PRICE LEVEL of $600 psf for detached houses, and $500 psf as the base price for semi-D and terrace houses. In this way, we can determine both the extend of the market confidence and the fundamental support price level for landed home units being marketed at this present moment. Let’s first look at the psychological barrier CASE STUDY [6] – ASCERTAINING THE PSYCHOLOGICAL PRICE BARRIER

Only transaction records of conventional landed houses are used in the comparison so that a more realistic picture of the land value can be ascertained. Tables [4-I-1] to [4-I-3] show the highest unit psf land price of the different landed housing forms in February 2010. Table [4-I-1] – UNIT PRICES OF DETACHED HOUSES THAT WENT BEYOND $1,200 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2010 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) 4 9,464 13.25 1,400 10 4,573 6.78 1,483 11 4,316 6.85 1,587 4 7,334 12.0 1,636 4 7,010 12.5 1,783 11 4,722 8.75 1,853 4 6,785 13.68 2,016 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

Out of the 36 detached houses transacted in February 2010, 7 transactions (or 19.44% of all detached house transactions) exceeded the $1,200 psf psychological barrier.

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It is worth noting that all the above 7 transactions occurred in high-end segments including Sentosa Cove, and prime Districts 10 and 11. In other words, it may be tough for buyers to be willing to fork out such a high price for a detached house outside the prime areas. Table [4-I-2] – UNIT PRICES OF SEMI-D HOUSES THAT WENT BEYOND $1,200 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2010 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) 10 3,155 4.2 1,331 11 2,399 3.22 1,344 10 3,615 5.27 1,459 10 3,385 5.0 1,477 10 2,733 4.3 1,573 10 3,483 5.5 1,579 11 2,175 4.03 1,856 10 2,373 4.68 1,972 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

Out of the 69 conventional semi-detached houses transacted, 8 transactions (or 11.6% of all semi-detached house transactions) exceeded the $1,200 psf psychological barrier. Likewise, all the transactions occurred in prestigious areas such as Districts 10 and 11. Table [4-I-3] – UNIT PRICES OF TERRACE HOUSES THAT WENT BEYOND $1,200 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2010 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) 8 1,525 1.88 1,232 15 1,467 1.81 1,233 21 1,854 2.29 1,235 15 1,614 2.1 1,301 11 1,872 2.5 1,335 15 834 1.23 1,471 11 1,763 2.6 1,474 10 2,275 3.5 1,538 9 1,246 3.468 2,782 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

In February 2010, the price barrier was further accentuated as out of the 134 conventional terrace houses transacted, only 9 transactions (or 6.7% of all terrace house transactions) exceeded the $1,200 psf psychological barrier. Moreover, out of the 9 transactions, 7 of them occurred in prime districts, e.g. Districts 9, 10, 11, and popular area such as District 15. In other words, it is unlikely for prices of terrace houses in most parts of Singapore to exceed the psychological barrier if there is no major breakthrough in the general economy.

CASE STUDY [7] – ASCERTAINING THE BASE PRICE LEVEL

Two sets of base price statistics were compared to ascertain the support price level for detached houses in February 2010. See Tables [4-J-1] and [4-J-2] below for details.

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Table [4-J-1] – UNIT PRICES OF DETACHED HOUSES THAT WENT BELOW $600 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2010 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) D17 6,243 3.0 480 D13 5,134 2.63 512 D14 4,994 2.768 554 D15 7,631 4.25 557 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian Table [4-J-2] – UNIT PRICES OF DETACHED HOUSES THAT WENT BELOW $600 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2009 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) 19 4,219 1.67 396 27 4,531 1.8 398 19 3,853 1.8 467 10 8,783 4.2 478 15 5,586 3.0 537 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

FINDING {1} – SUPPORT PRICE LEVEL FOR DETACHED HOUSES DETACHED HOUSE PRICES UNLIKELY TO FALL BELOW $600 PSF Out of the 36 detached house transactions in February 2010, only 4 transactions (or 11.11% of all detached house transactions) went below the base price of $600 psf. However, due to the lack of market direction in February 2009, 62.25% of detached house transactions in the same time period last year went below the base price of $600 psf. The finding of this case study has produced evidence to show that in the near term the support price level for detached houses should be around $600 psf. This is because demand for landed home units is healthy at this moment and if a detached house were to be put up for sale at below the $600 psf unit price level, buyers will rush in to snap up the property. Let’s now look at transactions of semi-detached houses in February 2010 that fell below the threshold of $500 psf. See Tables [4-K-1] and [4-K-2] below for comparison of support price level for semi-detached houses in February 2010. Table [4-K-1] – UNIT PRICES OF SEMI-D HOUSES THAT WENT BELOW $500 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2010 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) D21 3,638 990k 272 D27 3,971 1.69 426 D19 5,371 2.4 447 D28 4,951 2.3 465 D14 4,477 2.15 481 D14 4,036 1.95 483 D17 3,272 1.59 487 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian Table [4-K-2] – UNIT PRICES OF SEMI-D HOUSES THAT WENT BELOW $500 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2009 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) 27 3,638 1.25 343 15 3,788 1.5 396

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28 3,702 1.5 26 3,670 1.5 19 3,597 1.5 5 5,714 2.48 19 3,887 1.8 20 3,336 1.55 26 3,444 1.61 16 3,433 1.68 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

405 409 417 434 463 465 468 489

FINDING {2} – SUPPORT PRICE LEVEL FOR SEMI-DETACHED HOUSES SEMI-DETACHED HOUSE PRICES UNLIKELY TO FALL BELOW $500 PSF Out of the 69 semi-detached house transactions in February 2010, only 7 transactions (or 10.14% of all semi-D transactions) went below the base price of $500 psf. However, at the same time period last year, a high 45.5% of semi-D transactions were done at below the base price of $500 psf. A much improved economy in 2010, though still convalescent, has escalated the support price level to $500 psf. In other words, if any semi-detached were to be put up for sale at below the support price level, buyers would react quickly to snap it up. See Tables [4-L-1] and [4-L-2] below for comparison of support price level for terrace houses in February 2010. Table [4-L-1] – UNIT PRICES OF TERRACE HOUSES THAT WENT BELOW $500 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2010 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) 19 3,272 510k 156 19 3,229 658k 204 22 4,477 1.48 332 19 5,403 1.98 366 19 4,144 1.76 425 23 3,100 1.32 425 5 4,004 1.83 460 19 3,616 1.8 497 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian Table [4-L-2] – UNIT PRICES OF TERRACE HOUSES THAT WENT BELOW $500 PSF IN FEBRUARY 2009 LAND SIZE SALE PRICE $PSF (SQ FT) ($ MILLION) 28 9,854 2.03 206 27 2,909 928k 319 25 2,343 900k 384 19 2,176 838k 385 18 3,737 1.48 396 18 2,648 1.07 404 19 2,709 1.10 406 19 2,348 958k 408 19 2,712 1.18 435 5 5,360 2.4 448 19 2,793 1.285 460 28 2,159 1.0 463

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19 1,802 838.3k 26 3,014 1.42 20 1,849 895k 23 2,066 1.0 15 3,319 1.63 Source of data: URA – Compiled and analysed by Sam Gian

465 471 484 484 491

Out of the 134 transactions of conventional terrace houses in February 2010, only 8 transactions (or 5.97% of all terrace house transactions) went below the base price of $500 psf, unlike in February 2009 where 17 transactions or 29.8% of all terrace house transactions went below the base price. Given the keen interests on landed home units at this moment, it is unlikely that the support price level of terrace houses would fall below the $500 psf level. FINDING {4} – SUPPORT PRICE LEVEL FOR TERRACE HOUSES TERRACE HOUSE PRICES UNLIKELY TO FALL BELOW $500 PSF Likewise, the finding for the support price level for terrace houses is the same as the other larger house types, i.e. terrace house prices are unlikely to fall below the current support level of $500 psf.

CONCLUSION The exuberance seen in the non-landed (condo / apartments) segment where hopes were sky-high and sales volume was feverish was conspicuously absent in the landed home segment. Though the psychological support level and the base price for landed home units are firm for the time being, buyer’s cautiousness can be clearly felt in this particular housing segment. There could be a couple of reasons for the tranquillity at this particular housing segment: (1) the lack of speculative elements in this particular home segment; and, (2) the different psyche of landed home owners (and aspiring owners) who tend to be business owners who may have to bear the brunt of any sudden economic downturn, given the fragility in the economy. Business owners face the unnerving prospect of the withdrawal of the Job Credit Scheme in July 2010, a government subsidy that has thus far succeeded in keeping many businesses afloat. And the aspiring landed home owners may be trying to keep their powder dry in the interim until more certainties materialise in the business environment.

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[B.4] PRIVATE HOME RENTS REGAINED STABILITY IN JANUARY 2010 Private home rents have generally gone up in January 2010 compared with the same time last year. A search on the URA rental records revealed that out of the 80 street locations selected for this analysis, 50 such locations experienced healthier rents while 30 other registered slight drops in rents. [B.4.1] COMPARING JANUARY 2010 RENTS WITH LAST JANUARY (BY STREET NAMES) Median rents in popular locations such as District 9 and 10 experienced a more robust growth than other outlaying areas. For example, in Devonshire Road (item 13 at Table [5-A] below), the median home rent rose by 61% or $2.13 psf/ per month when compared with the same time last year. However, rent rises in other locations were moderate, for example the 4.24% increase in median rent at Alexandra Road (item 1 at Table [5-A]). Table [5-A] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 50 LOCATIONS WHERE MEDIAN HOME RENTS HAVE RISEN 25th Median Percentile 1

ALEXANDRA ROAD

AMBER GARDENS

ANG MO KIO CTR 3

ARDMORE PARK

BAYSHORE ROAD

BT BATOK CTR LINK

CHARLTON ROAD

CHOA CHU KANG LOOP

CLAYMORE ROAD

CORNWALL GARDENS

CORONATION RD WEST

DAIRY FARM ROAD

DEVONSHIRE ROAD

75th Percentile

JAN 2009

2.63

2.83

3.17

JAN 2010

2.66

2.95

3.35

JAN 2009

1.69

1.82

2.24

JAN 2010

2.17

2.83

3.01

JAN 2009

2.47

2.67

2.81

JAN 2010

2.84

3.01

3.06

JAN 2009

5.38

5.6

5.96

JAN 2010

6.05

6.33

6.46

JAN 2009

2.44

2.67

2.93

JAN 2010

2.53

2.8

3.17

JAN 2009

3.08

3.1

3.18

JAN 2010

2.89

3.26

3.62

JAN 2009

1.67

1.88

2.08

JAN 2010

1.88

2.09

2.16

JAN 2009

1.94

2.18

2.46

JAN 2010

2.13

2.48

2.6

JAN 2009

4.53

4.69

5.07

JAN 2010

4.74

4.77

5.02

JAN 2009

3.88

4.32

4.61

JAN 2010

4.36

4.62

4.95

JAN 2009

3.53

4.17

4.55

JAN 2010

3.91

4.39

4.59

JAN 2009

1.93

1.96

2.01

JAN 2010

1.99

2.14

2.19

JAN 2009

3.38

3.54

4.03

JAN 2010

4.69

5.67

6.79

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DUCHESS AVENUE

DUNEARN ROAD

EAST COAST ROAD

EWE BOON ROAD

GERALD DRIVE

GRANGE ROAD

HACIENDA GROVE

HILLVIEW AVENUE

HOUGANG ST 92

JLN BT HO SWEE

JLN KEMBANGAN

JLN LIM TAI SEE

JLN TUA KONG

KOVAN ROAD

LAKEPOINT DRIVE

LEONIE HILL

LOR 1 TOA PAYOH

LOR CHUAN

LOYANG RISE

MARINE PARADE ROAD

MEYER ROAD

JAN 2009

3.39

3.86

4.33

JAN 2010

3.41

4.32

5.03

JAN 2009

2.56

3.04

3.57

JAN 2010

3.02

3.42

3.69

JAN 2009

1.76

2.11

2.4

JAN 2010

2.16

2.46

2.78

JAN 2009

2.81

3.17

3.32

JAN 2010

3.22

3.42

3.46

JAN 2009

2.2

2.25

2.3

JAN 2010

2.28

JAN 2009

2.11

2.51

3.88

JAN 2010

3.66

4.32

4.82

JAN 2009

2.05

2.36

2.62

JAN 2010

2.97

JAN 2009

1.81

2.0

2.19

JAN 2010

1.95

2.08

2.19

JAN 2009

2.03

2.13

2.28

JAN 2010

2.32

2.37

JAN 2009

3.99

4.21

4.33

JAN 2010

5.18

5.2

5.67

JAN 2009

3.59

3.82

3.83

JAN 2010

4.16

JAN 2009

2.89

JAN 2010

3.3

3.7

4.1

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.74 1.66

1.74 1.91

1.74 2.24

JAN 2009

2.22

2.39

3.29

JAN 2010

2.76

2.96

3.45

JAN 2009

1.59

1.65

1.85

JAN 2010

1.6

2.11

2.48

JAN 2009

2.25

2.66

3.52

JAN 2010

2.69

3.47

4.79

JAN 2009

2.68

3.07

3.22

JAN 2010

2.81

3.37

3.95

JAN 2009

1.87

1.96

2.4

JAN 2010

2.05

2.11

3.07

JAN 2009

1.15

1.32

1.43

JAN 2010

1.45

JAN 2009

2.91

3.55

3.66

JAN 2010

3.28

3.71

3.87

JAN 2009

2.18

2.34

2.71

JAN 2010

2.41

2.58

2.75

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MOUNT EMILY ROAD

MOUNT SINAI DRIVE

ORANGE GROVE ROAD

PASIR PANJANG HILL

PINEWOOD GROVE

QUEENSWAY

RHU CROSS

RIVER VALLEY CLOSE

SIMEI RISE

SOMMERVILLE WALK

STEVENS DRIVE

TANGLIN RISE

TANJONG RHU ROAD

THOMSON ROAD

UPPER THOMSON ROAD

WEST COAST WAY

JAN 2009

4.09

4.3

4.5

JAN 2010

5.13

5.28

5.5

JAN 2009

1.81

2.15

2.45

JAN 2010

2.57

2.65

2.97

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

3.07 4.53

3.14 4.99

3.37 5.44

JAN 2009

2.5

2.56

2.73

JAN 2010

2.97

3.21

3.33

JAN 2009

1.69

JAN 2010

2.0

2.31

2.61

JAN 2009

2.21

3.43

4.57

JAN 2010

4.15

4.3

4.79

JAN 2009

2.53

2.71

3.05

JAN 2010

2.58

2.87

3.05

JAN 2009

1.77

1.94

2.73

JAN 2010

2.62

3.29

3.53

JAN 2009

2.34

2.42

2.52

JAN 2010

2.46

2.63

2.73

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.47 1.64

JAN 2009

4.15

4.33

4.55

JAN 2010

5.24

5.64

5.83

JAN 2009

3.58

JAN 2010

3.42

4.02

4.63

JAN 2009

2.43

2.93

3.42

JAN 2010

2.74

3.19

3.47

JAN 2009

2.38

2.77

4.28

JAN 2010

2.56

3.14

3.49

JAN 2009

1.46

JAN 2010

1.71

1.74

1.89

JAN 2009

1.68

1.82

2.21

JAN 2010

1.95

2.61

2.9

Source of data: URA

FINDING {1} MORE SPECTACULAR RENT RISES IN PRIME LOCATIONS Apparently, the ‘flight to quality’ has occurred in some parts of the prime areas, resulting in a small pocket of high-end projects experiencing spectacle RISES in rent in January 2010. Here are some examples of high-end projects where median rents had gone up by more than 50% when compared year-on-year (i.e. January 2010 compared with January 2009):

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At Orange Grove Road, average median rent climbed $1.85 psf/per month (or from $3.14 to $4.99 psf/pm). The percentage rise was 59% over the same time last year.

At River Valley Close, average median rent rose $1.35 psf/per month (or from $1.94 to $3.29 psf/pm). The percentage rise was an impressive 70% over January 2009.

At Grange Road, average median rent soared by $1.81 psf/per month (or from $2.51 to $4.32 psf/pm). By percentage term, it was a whopping 73% spike in median rent over last January.

However, by and large, there are more projects which experienced moderate rises in median rents such as the following:

At Ardmore Park, average median rent rose $0.73 psf/per month (or from $5.6 to $6.33 psf/pm). The percentage rise was 13% over the same time last year.

At Mt Emily Road, average median rent rose $0.98 psf/per month (or from $4.3 to $5.28 psf/pm). The percentage rise was 22.8% over January 2009.

At Queensway, average median rent rose $0.87 psf/per month (or from $3.43 to $4.3 psf/pm). The percentage rise was 26% over January 2009.

Let’s now look at projects where median rents had fallen. Table [5-B] – 30 LOCATIONS WHERE MEDIAN HOME RENTS HAVE FALLEN 25th Median Percentile 51

BINJAI PARK

BISHAN ST 21

CAIRNHILL CIRCLE

CHUN TIN ROAD

DRAYCOTT PARK

DUNMAN ROAD

FORD AVENUE

GOPENG ST

HAVELOCK ROAD

75th Percentile

JAN 2009

2.55

3.23

3.9

JAN 2010

1.92

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.92 2.75

3.19 2.88

3.52 3

JAN 2009

4.65

5.4

5.64

JAN 2010

4.04

4.31

5.17

JAN 2009

3.5

3.77

3.85

JAN 2010

2.44

2.91

2.99

JAN 2009

4.4

6.79

7.45

JAN 2010

6.03

6.62

7.01

JAN 2009

2.69

2.94

2.98

JAN 2010

2.29

2.5

2.52

JAN 2009

5.4

5.46

5.52

JAN 2010

4.04

4.32

5.49

JAN 2009

6.01

6.32

7.63

JAN 2010

5.91

6.13

6.56

JAN 2009

3.98

4.45

4.85

JAN 2010

3.73

4.18

4.51

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JAN 2009

4.02

JAN 2010

3.52

JAN 2009

2.68

2.84

2.91

JAN 2010

2.61

2.77

4.31

JAN 2009

2.84

3.27

3.59

JAN 2010

2.4

2.66

2.92

JAN 2009

2.31

2.83

3.5

JAN 2010

2.4

2.54

3.23

JAN 2009

3.21

3.32

3.77

JAN 2010

2.11

2.89

3.14

JAN 2009

4.3

4.37

4.44

JAN 2010

3.75

4.26

4.72

JAN 2009

2.75

4.1

5.96

JAN 2010

2.45

2.68

2.71

JAN 2009

2.65

3.02

3.04

JAN 2010

2.48

2.6

2.8

JAN 2009

2.48

3.1

3.3

JAN 2010

2.48

JAN 2009

5.23

5.79

6.57

JAN 2010

4.89

5.36

5.86

JAN 2009

8.41

8.72

9.03

JAN 2010

7.85

JAN 2009

4.51

6.24

6.74

JAN 2010

4.02

4.42

4.56

JAN 2009

4.12

5.24

6.94

JAN 2010

3.69

4.26

4.97

JAN 2009

2.39

2.53

2.85

JAN 2010

2.17

2.26

2.44

JAN 2009

2.24

2.68

JAN 2010

1.97

2.07

2.28

JAN 2009

1.88

2.15

2.45

JAN 2010

2.08

2.13

2.51

JAN 2009

2.94

3.51

3.86

JAN 2010

3.06

3.43

3.68

JAN 2009

4.69

4.74

4.78

JAN 2010

4.5

4.61

4.71

SOUTH BUONA VISTA ROAD

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.3 2.32

3.04 2.69

3.21 3.32

WILBY ROAD

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

4.2 5.34

5.78 5.46

6 5.66

YISHUN ST 81

JAN 2009

2.07

2.18

2.21

HOLLAND GROVE LANE

HOLLAND HILL

HOLLAND PARK

HOLLAND ROAD

INDUS ROAD

JLN MUTIARA

JERVOIS ROAD

JURONG EAST ST 32

KENSINGTON PARK DRIVE

KEPPEL BAY DRIVE

LADY HILL ROAD

NASSIM ROAD

NEWTON ROAD

NORMANTON PARK

ORCHARD BOULEVARD

PANDAN VALLEY

RIVER VALLEY ROAD

SCOTTS ROAD

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JAN 2010

2.09

2.17

2.24

Source of data: URA

FINDING {2} LOCATIONS WHERE MEDIAN HOME RENT HAS FALLEN Compared with rent rises, rent falls were restricted to within a narrow range of between 8cent psf/per month or 2.27% rent fall at River Valley Road (item 76 at Table [5-B] above) and $0.43 psf/per month or 7.43% rental fall at Keppel Bay Drive (item 69 at the same Table [5-B]) when compared year-on-year. However, there were also a very small number of high-end private condos in prime areas which experienced more pronounced rent falls, such as the trio below:

At Jervois Road, average median rent fell $1.42 psf/per month (or from $4.1 to $2.68 psf/pm). Rental income was setback by 35% when compared with last January.

At Nassim Road, average median rent fell $1.82 psf/per month (or from $6.24 to $4.42 psf/pm). The rent fall was 30% over the same time last year.

At Cairnhill Circle, average median rent fell $1.09 psf/per month (or from $5.4 to $4.31 psf/pm). By percentage term, it was a 20.2% fall over last January.

[B.4.2] COMPARING JANUARY 2010 RENTS WITH LAST JANUARY (BY POSTAL DISTRICTS) However, when median home rents are compared using a different yardstick, such as by postal districts, the rise/fall movements are less pronounced. One can see subdued rental price movements ranging from a two-cent psf/per month increase to 58-cent psf/per month rise. Though there was a $1.77 psf/per month spike in District 1, that was an isolated case not repeated anywhere else across the island. Table [5-C] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 19 DISTRICTS WHERE MEDIAN HOME RENTS HAVE RISEN Districts Period 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile D1

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.3 3.69

3.23 5

3.58 5.73

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.65 3.77

4.6 4.62

5.8 5.37

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.23 2.06

2.37 2.86

3.49 4.35

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.72 2.95

3.73 3.92

4.68 5.07

D10

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.72 2.99

3.53 3.7

4.37 4.9

D11

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.56 2.65

3.25 3.43

4.37 4.15

D12

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.66 2.03

2.31 2.49

2.82 3.14

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D13

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.15 1.39

1.25 1.83

1.54 2.43

D15

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.96 2.24

2.42 2.67

2.87 3.18

D16

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.95 2.19

2.37 2.51

2.7 2.78

D17

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.64 1.74

2.08 2.16

2.38 2.47

D18

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.16 2.29

2.3 2.39

2.46 2.58

D19

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.76 1.77

2.09 2.22

2.45 2.68

D20

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.9 1.99

2.44 2.6

2.86 2.98

D21

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.94 2.01

2.25 2.3

2.68 2.8

D22

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.2 2.28

2.45 2.53

3.04 2.98

D23

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.85 1.98

2.11 2.16

2.32 2.49

D25

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.23 2.09

2.33 2.32

2.56 2.64

D26

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

1.95 1.97

2.19 2.25

2.47 2.58

JAN 2009 JAN 2010 Source of data: URA

1.28 1.88

2.07 2.11

2.22 2.24

D27

Table [5-B] – 5 DISTRICTS WHERE MEDIAN HOME RENTS HAVE FALLEN Districts Period 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile D2

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.36 2.45

5.61 4.93

6.35 6.13

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.8 2.67

3.68 3.44

4.21 4.01

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

3.26 3.45

4.71 3.88

8.34 4.23

D14

JAN 2009 JAN 2010

2.09 1.76

2.43 2.22

2.85 2.58

JAN 2009 JAN 2010 Source of data: URA

1.46 1.45

1.68 1.6

2.24 2.09

D28

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(C) CONCLUSION So, it was not the HDB flat dwellers nor was it the foreigners who were to be accountable for the spike in the sales volume to an inexplicable height amidst an uncertain economy. No one is able to pinpoint the reasons for the property rally as the global economic fundamentals, which underpin any advanced economies’ performance – Singapore’s included, are still convalescent and fragile. At the moment, the ‘cheap money’ factor appears to be the main culprit. This factor can be corroborated by the fact that more than 70% of the buyers of private home units are private property owners themselves – presumably the middle- and higher-income groups. The next thing that was like fuel to fire is the high hope pined by the indigenous investors/speculators, as well as ordinary home owners, on the certain success of the two Integrated Resorts (IRs). For now, buying real estate appears to be the wisest thing to do as the costs of property ownership is really ‘dirt cheap’. Moreover, real estate as the best hedge against inflation is the most fashionable currency in thoughts and the most intelligent thing to talk about whether at an upscale cafe or a coffee shop at a HDB estate. However, most property buyers appear to have been totally blind-sided by the development in the private home rent segment as rents remain flat and its immediate future uncertain, especially with more than 10,000 quality condo units to be ready for vacant possession by the end of this year. We should brace ourselves for some unpleasant surprises in the near future.

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ANNEX A â&#x20AC;&#x201C; REVISED PROPERTY TAX REVISED PROPERTY TAX RATES From January 2011, there will be a three-tier property tax rate for all home owners. The first $6,000 of ANNUAL VALUE (AV) will be exempted from property tax. The next $59,000 AV will be taxed at 4% and the balance of AV above $65,000 will be taxed at 6%. The property tax for non-owner-occupied residential properties as well as other properties will remain at a flat rate of 10% of AV. As a result of the rate change, all owner-occupied homes will enjoy tax savings of $240 due to the exemption of the first $6,000 of AV. Owners of high-end properties will see increases in tax payable as follows: WORKINGS OF THE NEXT TAX RATES

1st tier 2nd tier 3rd tier New Tax payable

Household A AV of $80,000 $6,000 = $0 $59,000 x 4% = $2,360 $15,000 x 6% = $900 $3,260

Household B AV of $120,000 First $6,000 = $0 $59,000 x 4% = $2,360 $55,000 x 6% = $3,300 $5,660

Old Tax payable New Tax Rate Difference in tax

$80,000 x 4% = $3,200 $3,260 Household pays $60 more

$120,000 x 4% = $4,800 $5,660 Household pays $860 more

REVISED LOAN-TO-VALUE (LTV) RATIO A home buyer will have to fork out more cash to buy a property with the latest change in the stamp duty rules. Besides, he will reap a smaller profit if he sells it within a year. Take, for example, a buyer who pays $1 million for a home before the rules changed and sold it in less than a year for $1.1million.

BEFORE THE NEW MEASURES The buyer could enjoy LTV of 90% - so he could purchase the property with only $100,000 as a down-payment. By selling, he would have made a fast $100,000, less the stamp duty he paid when he bought the property - $24,600 under the stamp duty formula. That means he would pocket a profit of $75,400. [Return on capital: 75,400/100,000 = 75.4%] AFTER THE NEW MEASURES The buyer can only enjoy LTV of only 80% of the price which means a down-payment of $200,000. He would have made $100,000 minus his original buyers' stamp duty ($24,600), and now minus an additional sellers' stamp duty, of $27,600. This means a greatly reduced profit of $47,800. [Return on capital: 47,800/200,000 = 23.9%]

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ANNEX B – REVISED HDB POLICIES On 5 March 2010, the Ministry of National Development introduced a series of measures to ensure financial prudence and to prevent ethnic enclaves in Singapore. This is hot on the heel of an earlier round of measures which saw the implementation of seller’s Stamp Duty for private properties sold within a year of its purchase; and the introduction of a three-tier property tax rate.

(A) In Support of an Inclusive and Cohesive Home [A-1] EMPHASIS ON SINGAPORE CITIZENSHIP

The amount of CPF Housing Grant is reduced by $10,000 for families with only one Singapore Citizen (SC) and at least one Singapore Permanent Resident (SPR)

SPR can apply for a $10,000 Citizen Top-Up if they take up citizenship or if the couple has an SC child while still in ownership of the flat

[A-2] PREVENTING SPR ENCLAVES FROM FORMING With the above objective in mind, the following policies have been introduced:

A new SPR Quota for non-Malaysian SPR families buying resale flats

SPR families cannot buy flats in areas that have exceeded the 8% (block) quota and 5% (Neighbourhood) quota except from non-Malaysian SPR sellers.

The principle of SPR Quota is similar to Ethnic Integration Policy (EIP) – i.e. when the SPR quota is filled, SPR can only buy a flat from a non-Malaysian SPR

[A-3] RESPONDING TO CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

For the Ethnic Integration Policy, the limits for the Indian/Others ethnic group have been increased by two percentage points to 12% at the Neighbourhood level and 15% at the Block level, in view of Singapore’s changing demographics

See below for EIP table Ethnic Group

Malays (no change) Chinese (no change) Indians & Others

Maximum Ethnic Limits Neighbourhood Block 22% 25% 84% 87% 12% 15%

The status of changes of ethnic proportions is updated on a monthly basis.

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(B) Reinforcing of Owner-Occupation Among HDB Flat Owners

The Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) for resale of non-subsidised flats (i.e. resale flats bought without CPF Housing Grant) is increased to 3 years.

The increase in MOP is regardless of whether the buyer takes an HDB loan, a bank loan or no loan at all.

The revised MOP policy will apply to resale transactions where applications are received by HDB from 5 Mar 2010 onwards.

Existing lessees of non-subsidised flats will not be affected, i.e. the original MOP of 2.5 or 1 year continues to apply to them.

Second-timer households are no longer required to buy bigger flats to qualify for a second concessionary loan from HDB.

The second concessionary loan will be made available to all eligible households regardless whether they upgrade, downsize or move to the same flat type

HDB has reduced the amount of the second concessionary loan by the full CPF proceeds and part of the cash proceeds from the sale of the existing or immediate past HDB flats.

Flat buyers can keep half of the cash proceeds (including the cash deposit received) or $25,000 in cash, whichever is greater.

[C-1] THOSE WHO BUY THE NEXT FLAT AFTER SELLING THE EXISTING ONE

Must use up to 50% cash proceeds from the sale of the immediate past HDB flat and all CPF balance to finance the purchase of the next flat.

This will apply regardless of when the previous HDB flat was sold

[C-2] THOSE WHO BUY THE NEXT FLAT BEFORE SELLING THE EXISTING ONE

HDB will first grant them a bigger loan at commercial interest rates.

After the sale of their existing flat, they will have to redeem this loan with the full CPF refund and part of the cash proceeds.

Upon redemption, the loan will be converted to a concessionary rate loan

(D) Lease Buyback Scheme to Benefit More Elderly HDB Households

To enable more lessees to benefit from the Lease Buyback Scheme, HDB has extended it to those owning 4-room and bigger flats.

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