Commercial Property Market Review
Whats driving commercial property sales and leases on the Northern Beaches.
GENERAL OVERVIEW
The Northern Beaches Commercial real estate market has experienced a turbulent and challenging year with very similar activity and transaction numbers to 2023. As an office, we have transacted over 220 sales and leases, reflecting our ability to navigate the challenges of today’s market. While broader economic sentiment remains cautious, and media reports often highlight uncertainty, we are proud to say that Upstate has defied the trend. Admittedly deals have taken longer to finalise this year, often requiring twice the effort to reach an agreement. Yet, by staying closely connected to our clients —tenants, buyers, landlords, and vendors — we’ve continued to deliver exceptional outcomes.
Across several sectors, the landscape presents a mix of opportunities and challenges. We’ve observed an increase in property listings, creating more supply. Meanwhile, inquiries are down by 50–60%, reflecting some hesitation in the marketplace. Local businesses and investors are initiating their property search three to six months earlier than usual, signalling cautious optimism but longer lead times. Despite these shifts, properties with strong presentation and well-strategized marketing campaigns continue to perform exceptionally. These success stories highlight the value of meticulous planning and a tailored approach.
At Upstate, we recognise the up-and-down nature of the market but remain steadfast in delivering results. Backed by our expertise and commitment, we’ve secured wins for our clients, even amidst shifting conditions.
WAREHOUSES
This year has been turbulent for the industrial market. Leasing prices have softened slightly, while sale prices have dipped further. However, it’s important to note that prices are still well above where they were five years ago. Warehouses emain the most sought-after asset class on the Northern Beaches, reinforcing their long-term strength.
RETAIL
The retail market has held steady in 2024, in particular the food and beverage industry. Upstate Commercial has been instrumental in securing standout deals including Wingmill Dee Why, Lovat Avalon, Fat Pomelo Narrabeen, Nikkita Manly and Alice Dumplings Manly. Strip retail shopfronts in prime locations—close to transport and amenities—are performing well, but other areas are showing slower activity and heightened price sensitivity.
OFFICE
In 2024, the office market remained relatively stagnant. We have experienced an increase in vacancy across the markets of Warriewood, Belrose and Frenchs Forest. While our core commercial hubs like Manly, Dee Why and Mona Vale have remained active, albeit with increased price sensitivity due to a wider range of options available to tenants and buyers
MARKET SHARE GRAPH FOR SALES
Upstate hold the top position with 28.9% market share.
Proof that Upstate are the leaders in Commercial Real Estate.
We’re excited about the opportunities ahead in 2025 and expect the market to behave similarly to this year. We are expecting a modest reduction in interest rates for the first half While this won’t change financial fundamentals, we believe the greatest impact will be on market sentiment. A more optimistic outlook from buyers and tenants is likely to drive renewed activity.
At Upstate, we are confident in our systems, expertise, and ability to guide our clients through the evolving market. Whether buying, selling, leasing, or managing commercial properties, we’re here to ensure you find yourself in a better place.
For all your property needs, feel free to contact our team on 02 9971 9000 or visit upstate.com.au
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