기후변화와 태양광 에너지
1. -
2. -
3.
,
(IPCC
-
: 280ppm → 379ppm : 715ppb → 1,732ppb : 270ppm → 319ppm 100 (1906 ~ 2005)
2005
)
0.74(0.56 ~ 0.92)℃ *
:
: 6.4℃, 59cm
90%
(
:
2100
800 2033
*
)
:
322
2
(2009,
)
2013년 액체 방사성 물질 배출량
3.87E+01
3.47E+01
(Xe)-13
[단위 : TBq]
6.29E+01
3.41E+01
2.34E-08
1.62E-07
6.06E-07
-90
2.40E-08
1.48E-06
1.48E-06
1.08E-06
5.40E-05
1.47E-04
-95
1.37E-06
3
-89
-97 -131
1.38E-07
-133
2.49E-08
Be(베릴늄)-7 -24
1.20E-07 1.75E-07
2.44E-05
2.94E-05
-54
5.08E-05
2.19E-05
-56
-58 -59
2.80E-04
1.21E-07
-
2.79E-04
6.26E-05
7.48E-06 -60
1.56E-05
3.31E-04
3.37E-08
(Sb)-1 2.31E-07
124 (Sb)-1 125 (Te)-12
1.17E-05 3m
1.54E-05 5.48E-06
(Nb)-97
-137
5.50E-06
(Gd)-
:
1.76E-06
, 2013,
153
1.17E-07
1.85E-06 1.10E-07
122
1.10E-07
-57
3.40E-04
(Sb)-1
1.77E-07
-51
(Nb)-95 5.92E-06
-110m
-
(Sc)-46
-
1.24E-05
6.25E-06
4.79E-06
7.78E-05
6.49E-06
2.46E-05
9.42E-07
-
4.31E-06
1.79E-05 7.86E-07
월성 원전 주변 삼중수소 체내 농도
(
)
10
21,715MW
2011 30km 370
: The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2014, Mycle Schneider et al.
OECD 10
24
, (24-> 36) (4-> 2-> 4) (4->6) (4-> 6?)
(4->6?), (2-> 6?), (16?), (1), (99)
(19), (7), (8), (1), (10), (5), (58), (43), (7)
,
,
, ,
,
,
, ,
,
,
,
, ,
,
•
OECD
OECD Region/ Country/ Economy
1 GDP GDP(PPP)/p op. Net imports
1 1 CO2 emissions(b) TPES/ pop.
GDP
1
1
1
T PES/ Elec. cons./ GDP (ppp) pop. CO2/pop.
United States Japan Korea Germany Italy France Spain Turkey United Kingdom Belgium Poland Netherlands Chile
42,385.27 30,761.17 27,540.78 34,580.46 27,054.35 30,078.93 26,978.32 13,444.90 32,887.15 33,211.29 17,965.48 37,125.22 15,271.57
457.62 421.10 227.36 199.04 141.12 126.40 105.16 80.16 72.52 49.43 34.57 29.24 24.85
5,287.18 1,186.04 587.73 747.58 392.97 328.31 270.32 285.73 443.01 108.59 300.00 174.47 76.31
7.02 3.61 5.23 3.81 2.76 3.88 2.72 1.52 3.00 5.38 2.63 4.64 1.94
0.17 0.12 0.19 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.13
13,227 7,847 10,162 7,083 5,393 7,318 5,604 2,677 5,518 8,072 3,833 7,036 3,576
16.94 9.28 11.81 9.14 6.47 5.04 5.86 3.86 7.06 9.89 7.79 10.45 4.42
Austria
36,135.39
23.51
68.49
3.92
0.11
8,359
8.13
15,646kWh/ 13,395kWh/
6 ,7
2014
#4(9 ,1400MW)
2015
#2(7 ,1000MW)
2017 2018
#1(4 ,1400MW) #2(4 ,1400MW)
2019 2020 2021 2022
#5(3 ,1400MW) #6(3 ,1400MW) #3(9 ,1400MW)
2023
,
#3(9 ,1400MW)
#4(9 ,1400MW)
2024 2025 2026
#1(12 ,1500MW)
2027
#2(12 ,1500MW)
2028
(1,500MW)
2029
(1,500MW)
18,200MW(13 )
11
2029 12 9,715.7MW 2035 14 11,715MW
,
20 (MW)
11
(
9 4 , 10% 5 )
*
9 10 9 10 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 11 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 9 20 : · ,
(MW)
1,020 1,020 1,050 1,050 1,000 1,000 1,022 1,022 595 595 350
2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016
580 580 1,000 1,040 1,040 1,040 1,040 1,050 1,050
2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2021
9,724
8,420 18,144
(6,140)
(3,234) (350)
(2,160) (2,080)
(4,180)
,7
, (
, )
(
73 )
8
9
(7414MW)
(8300MW)
2
(2080MW)
1 (350MW)
JTBC [ 7
]
, (
)
19%
*
: 2015.3
* : http://energy-ecology.blogspot.kr/2012/09/per-capita-residential-andindustrial.html
1차 에너지보다 싼 2차에너지, 전기 2500 2081.8 (7.4%)
2000 1696 (16.9%) 1746.4 (11.6%)
1500 한국
1254.1 (14.1%)
1000
1012.1 (4.8%) 908.1 (4.8%)
778 500
일본 1131.5 (7.5%)
OECD유럽
1008.8 (11.1%) 813.6 (11.1%)
897.3 (3.6%)
582.2 (8.6%)
0 도시가스
저유황유
경질중유
전기
단위: USD/TOE 괄호안은 세율
[OECD 산업용 에너지가격 비교, 2011년] [출처: IEA Energy Prices and Taxes 2012, 3rd quarter]
(조영탁 & 김창섭, 2008)
(2001~2010)
:
. 2012.
(MW)
(GWh)
(GWh)
93,216
521,971
477,592
109.3% 325.2%
1,2,3,4, 5,6 (870MW) 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 , 259.4% 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, (500MW) 1,2,3,4,5,6 244.3% (1000MW) 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 , 226.4% 1,2,3,4,5,6 (500~560MW) 1,2,3,4 , 1,2 187.3% 1,2 1,2,3,4,5,6 , 158.9% 1,2,3,4 , 1 / 1, 2 73.0%
8
4
13,930
73,425
22,578
4
1
17,247
122,695
47,295
7
3
10,197
77,493
31,723
5
5
8,913
75,685
33,435
9
6
7,059
37,425
19,981
3
2
12,448
73,126
46,016
16
11
893
3,081
4,220
12
9
3,387
10,011
15,778
63.4%
6
8
3,283
9,962
30,115
33.1%
11
10
2,090
7,619
22,297
34.2%
1
7
11,757
28,778
102,181
28.2%
15
16
147
400
8,197
4.9%
10
13
667
808
22,179
3.6%
2
12
517
799
45,019
1.8%
14
14
151
152
9,103
1.7%
13
15
529
513
14,859
3.5%
3,4,5,6 (1,400MW)
-
( (
) )
경제 발전이 에너지 수요를 줄일 수 있다
GDP 1 <EwI/ Prognos-Study The Trend of Energy Markets Up to the year 2030, Reference Forecast for the Energy Sector Energy Report Ⅳ-Summary>, Documentation No 545, May 2005, Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour 30
900.00 (~2011, TWh) 800.00
1
(2008.8)
4
(2008. 12)
700.00
600.00
5
(2010.12)
6
(2013.2)
2 500.00
(2014.1)
7
(2015.6) (2012~2015)
400.00
300.00
200.00
4 100.00
0.00
900
(TWh)
800
7
7 (2015.7)
700
(2012~2015) 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
14.00%
7 12.00%
10.00%
2014 0.6% 8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
2015 4.3% ? 2016 4.7%? 2015 2016
1.3% 1.7%
140,000 (MW) 120,000
7
(MW) (
)
100,000 (OECD 2009
1
)
80,000
60,000
40,000
: 20,000
0
3%, ‘16~’21 1%
2%, ‘21~’30
‘12~’15 1%
,
22 , (
1, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2 ) 10% ,
( 10 12 29,149~31,949
2009
19
OECD :
:
3, 4, 9 )
40~52.5% 5.6~32.2%
,
117%
(MW)
+
+
(GWh)
(GWh)
(GWh)
13,930
122,027
73,425
22,578
540.5%
11,575
101,397
28,778
102,181
99.2%
517
4,529
799
45,019
10.1%
25,505
223,424
102,203
149,476
149.5%
26,022
227,953
103,002
194,495
117.2%
+
12
25
22.68
(2013. 4.15)
→
→ :
출처하인리히뵐 재단(2015)
2012
vs 2020
39/56
(2005-2015 , GW)
=21
(REN21, 2016) 40/56
, /kWh
= , , 태양광 활성화를 위한 정책과 시민 참여, 이지언, 재인용
(Grid Parity: 2020
, 2013
)
2022
. 41/56
고용창출 효과 높은 재생에너지 산업 •
• -
(2002 , 30%): 3
-
:
38만2천명(2011년)
향후 10-20년간 50만 명 고용 창출 전망
, 4 • 2013 27%, 7.5% • 2015 22% 48% (2015 20%, 13%, 11%) • 2016 5 7~11 4
,
, 42%, 100%
http://www.huffingtonpost.kr/2016/05/19/story_n_10038154.html
우리나라 최종에너지 2030년 전망치 207,500(천TOE)
*
: 2012
.
*
: 2016
.
2011년 전력소비량을 제공하기 위해서 필요한 면적은 우리나라 전체 면적의 6.7%
702
,
680
,
475
. :
?-
,
.
2011.11.4
10
(2014 )
2014 0.9 GW 2.4GW
=21
(REN21, 2015)
48/56
(2014 ) GW
10
45 40
38.2
35 30
28.2
25
23.3
20
18.3
15 10.6 10
9.7 6.2
5
5.7
5.2 2.4
1.9
0.9
4.1 0.9
0.9
2.4
3.2 0.80.9
0.7
0
2014 =21
2014 (REN21, 2015)
49/56
:
, 2011
재생에너지
수요
원전 제로
석탄 제로 time
‘ *
’ ‘
,
,
’ (2012
) : .
조합원 모두가 재생에너지 공동 소유자
CO2
전력사
25
(
8 )
, ,
, ’
• • • • • •
: 1 (2 : 63 1 : 70~80 : : 10,000 ( : ,
. 12.03
)
) ,
,
• • • http://solarschool.modoo.at/