RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIOS – DANISH ANALYSES
POUL ALBERG Ø STERGAARD PROFESSOR IN ENERGY PLANNING A A L B O R G U N I V E R S I T Y, D E N M A R K
Danish Primary Energy Supply
PJ 1000 800
Danish energy system at a glance
600 400 200 0
• • •
Stable primary energy supply over 40 years ~50% of electricity from cogeneration of heat and power >55% District Heating ~40% wind power High share of the world’s offshore wind power
1972
1980
Oil
Coal
1988
1996
Natural Gas
2004
2007
Renewable Energy
World Primary Energy Consumption 400 RES
300
1000 PJ
• •
Nuclear 200
Ngas Oil
100 0 1900
PJ
Coal
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Fuel for House Heating
300 250 RES
200
Coal
150
Nga s
100 50
0 1972
1980
1988
1996
2003
2009
From a central to a distributed energy system Norway Sweden
1985 2013
Aalborg University
Central CHP Local CHP Wind Off-shore wind AC Interconnection DC interconnection
Germany
3
Maps: Danish Energy Agency
A RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIO FOR AALBORG
Photo: Bernd Möller
Aalborg at a glance
Future heat supply • •
• • • •
City: 129,000 (4th) Municipality: 203,000 (6th) 1144 km2 (3rd) 175 inhabitants/km2 ( >128) Largest Danish energy consumer Aalborg Portland 2.4% of TPES Extensive DH (CHP, Waste, industry, sewage, crematorium)
5
Rural (heat pumps) DH from heat pumps DH from heat pumps DH from central grid New transmission pipes
Energy sources in the Vision
6
Centre image nicked from the Internet
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Foto: bt.dk
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Foto: energitjenesten.dk
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Grafik: Rockwool.dk
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
Future heat supply in Aalborg Municipality Rural with individual heating DH from boilers DH fra local CHP DH from central CHP New DH transmission lines
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Grafik: Bernd Möller, Aalborg Energivisio
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Grafik: Geothermal energy.
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Foto: Bernd Möller
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Elements in the Aalborg Vision • • • • •
• • • • •
Use of locally available energy sources Electricity savings Heat savings Electrification District heating where possible- otherwise individual heat pumps Geothermal energy Exploitation of synergies (waste heat from industry and power production for house heating) Biogas - and waste Wind power Solar energy (to some extent)
And the controversial points • Ban against oil and natural gas boilers in dwellings • Ban against use of biomass for house heating (individual houses, boiler DH)
Foto: ing.dk
The Energy Vision – Scenario design
CHP Hydrogen and electric vehicles
Steam
City
Heat pumps
Villages DH
19
Heat coverage and electricity demand
90
60
Individual heat pumps
110 700
Waste Incineration
GWh/year
Additional industry
120
100
Boilers
CHP plants
Additional biogas
9 117
573
(Additional) heap pumps GWh/year
192 (Additional) hydrogen
Heat pumps Geothermal plant
Additional transport
390 460
Heat supply in 2050
20
Electricity demand in 2050
"Ordinary demand after savings"
Costs of renewable vs conventional energy systems 500
Yearly costs [Million â‚Ź]
400
300 Electricity trade CO2-tax
200
Operation and Maintenance Fuel
100
Investment - rail Investment
0 Vision 2050
2050 Reference
-100
21
A NATIONAL DANISH ENERGY SCENARIO
RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIOS – DANISH ANALYSES
POUL ALBERG Ø STERGAARD PROFESSOR IN ENERGY PLANNING A A L B O R G U N I V E R S I T Y, D E N M A R K