Introduction
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are present. We were fortunate that in Ladakh, these two nuclear-armed, highly populous nations stepped back from escalating the conflict. History shows that we have not always been so fortunate in the past—and may not be again in the future. A final lesson is that surprise remains an enduring aspect of international relations, war, and competition. The nature of surprise means it does not just include sudden and unanticipated events; it also incorporates the types of conflict in which we might be engaged as well as technological breakthroughs and sudden natural events. Humans keep getting surprised. As Roberta Wohlstetter writes in her classic study of surprise, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, “The possibility of surprise at any time lies in the conditions of human perception and stems from uncertainties so basic that they are not likely to be eliminated, though they might be reduced.”3 Surprise is not going away, regardless of how technologically sophisticated humans become. Further, surprise creates shock in the mind of humans; this creates opportunities for our adversaries. However, we might act to understand or shape the range of events that might surprise us. In doing so, we can intellectually prepare our people for surprise and shock and ensure that they can adapt and mitigate the worst impacts when they are surprised. Being surprised by an adversary is one of the most enduring elements of warfare. Indeed, achieving surprise is a principle of war in the military institutions of many nations.4 Sun Tzu believed surprise was an indispensable tool for military commanders, writing that they must “attack where they [the enemy] are unprepared. Go forth where they will not expect it.”5 Two millennia later, the doctrine of military institutions in the United States, Russia, Britain, and Australia describes surprise as a key principle of war. From the Roman centurions’ ambush by Germanic tribes in the Teutoburg Forest in AD 9 to General Maurice Gamelin’s helplessness in the face of the German offensive in the Ardennes in France in 1940, surprise has resulted in defeat and catastrophic failure for some, glorious victory for others. Regardless of how well connected we might be with sophisticated technologies or how much better we become at collecting and sharing information,
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