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Introduction
surprise will continue to occur in the future—perhaps even more frequently. This is because we are witnessing transformations in military technology and operations at a rapid pace, driven by the changes in geopolitics, technology, and broader society. Above all, the world is experiencing a revolution driven by the explosion of knowledge. Humans have always been curious beings. The history of humans demonstrates that we possess an insatiable need to know more about our world. But in the past two decades, the capacity to learn and share knowledge has expanded beyond any earlier capacity to do so. The connectivity of the Internet, the power to solve problems or find patterns through computational power, and the dawn of new algorithms that mimic some forms of human cognitive functions are driving this expansion. It is a new age of knowledge. Some have called this new period an “era of accelerations” or a “great acceleration.”6 More often, it is described as the fourth Industrial Revolution. Geopolitics, demography, and the climate are all changing quickly, underpinned by rapid technological development across the fields of information technology, biotechnology, space, communications, and many others. The COVID-19 pandemic is providing a “supercharging” function in some of these areas, driving change at an unanticipated pace. This, combined with the impact of the ongoing disruptions in our environment, will fundamentally change the structure and resilience of societies and how they interact, as well as the way nations compete and make war. The developments that have affected our societies are leading governments to reevaluate their conceptions of national security and national resilience. These reimaginings will disturb and unsettle how military institutions think about, deter, and prepare for future conflicts. They will also shake up how military organizations and their people conduct military operations. For some, these changes will be based on anticipating future challenges, assessing the changes in the surrounding world, analyzing the most effective strategies for military institutions, and then ruthlessly implementing these changes. A range of historical examples exists to guide policymakers and senior military leaders in this process.7
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