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New Economic corridors following with the development of infrastructure to the west, new economic areas will have to develop for the decentralization of capital in CBD
New Traffic insfrastructure New connective infrastructure will spress the cohesion intrest of the plan across if diferrent areas.
Economic growth Housing
“A Plan for Growing Sydney”, released in December 2014, is the NSW Government’s plan for the future of the Sydney Metropolitan Area over the next 20 years. The Proposed document outline a series of geospacial intended strategies across sydney., that will create oportunities for economic growth in a desentralized manner from the existing CBD case of current sydney city.
“A Plan for Growing Sydney”
Infrastructure
New air traffic insfrastructure
Land Degredation
implementation of new Airport as main agent for the activation of economical growth an development incentive in the west area.
The intrest of the governmental body lies behind this set of point, which seems to be a the goal for sydney’s development into the new two or three incoming decades.
Areas to be develop by the plan
The Geospacial strategies for the main body of the proposed plan, show urge for the mobility of jobs and a large number of the workforce to the most direct west location from the existing CBD.
Geo-Spacial strategies
The new areas around the proposed airport will be used as point of relief from the urban center of west sydney. As is expected that those centers will accomodate for the most part, the population increase (2.7 millions by 2036 estimated by the ABS) new forms of demand will evolve from them. Housing and jobs will be supported by the new airport and is adjacent development plants to solve this urge as it accours.
Densification of area for development
The Global Economic Corridor extends from Macquarie Park through the Sydney CBD to Port Botany and Sydney Airport. This economic cluster is unique in Australia due to the extent, diversity and concentration of globally competitive industries.
Economic decentralization
Penrith New auxiliar center
New employment area
Penrith Its the center that have already being accomodate the growth that has growth in a linear manner from the CBD passing for parramatta and blacktown
Blacktown auxiliar center
Parramatta New employment area
Blacktown This area might be the fist to reach its capacity to growth geographycally, creating the need for exhaust the economic and population desity that future years will produce.
New employment area Liverpool New auxiliar center
Liverpool
This information within the document represent the potential for different to be industries to relocate and re-stablishg accross the western sydney landscape. Is stressed that some centers may be close to reach their capacity in the incoming years, therefore expand to less develop areas is shown as a sensible desicion.
Current industry land use
As the document suggest this west s ydney center will for a direct connection with the new airport development area. It is projected to include the surplus of population and industries from its direct neighbouring suburbs from the east.
Stratigic industry land development (north, center, south)
Cambeltown
Projection of growth
Cost of Living
+
Cost
Cost of Housing
+
Connectivity + Amenities
Icome
Average Income
Simulation life span (2010 -2035)
The expected growth in sydney is projected to increase by 2.7% in 20 yearaccordingly to the ABS. and the NSW deparment of planning & environment.
New employment area Liverpool
The aim of the simulation is to visualize different scenerios in which the agents (polulation) will be affected by forces such as economy, land use, geographic location.
Cambeltown
Centers connected to areas for development
Input extraction of Geo-location (across sydney & in proximity to site)
The different locations of the great sydney which for part of the geography of NSW will demostrade change over time ( housing cost , population density, and avarage income) which willl have an effect in the agents across the simulation landscape. As the agents react to the changes in values accross the city centers, the main goal is to visualize how they will react according to the planned west sydney wairport and its industrial / housing plans.
Density
New auxiliar center
The simulation sets the number of years show the number of people are expected to form par in the predictions scenarios.
Variables extracted from proposed projection for sydney’s plan The valance between those values (housing price, population density, income avarage) in the land produce people displacement and variability. The relashionship between them stablished if a location become densified or spread across it surface.
Simulation of sydney’s growth plan 2011 - 2036
Relashionship between inputs
City Center Name
Years = Icrease Population Growth
Years = Icrease Population Growth
Sydney CBD
Population
333,080
Income
$2,139
Cost of Housing
$1050
Points of observation & projections. Below there are couple of paragraphs (page 28 “a plan for growing-sydney) that show the main approach in the strategy put in place to accomodate future growth in sydney. “In 20 years, 900,000 more people will live in Western Sydney than today.14 Within 25 years, Western Sydney will be home to more than half of all Sydneysiders.15 Significant population growth will occur in the North West and South West Growth Centres and around Parramatta. Long-term planning in Western Sydney will be necessary to create a setting for jobs, infrastructure and services to meet the needs of current and future populations so that growth is targeted towards strategic centres across Western Sydney.
This will include taking advantage of opportunities arising from new infrastructure investment such as Badgerys Creek Airport, the South West Rail Link, North West Rail Link and upgrades to The Northern Road, Elizabeth Drive and Bringelly Road. Western Sydney will require new jobs close to centres and transport, improved access to knowledge jobs in strategic centres, and upgraded transport links to Western Sydney centres and between Western Sydney and Sydney CBD.
Knowledge economy jobs remain geographically concentrated in the north and east of Sydney Currently, two-thirds of the output of metropolitan Sydney’s finance and insurance services and 40 per cent of professional services activity are located within the City of Sydney.16 By comparison, the manufacturing sector is heavily concentrated in the west and outer suburbs of Sydney.17 Additionally, 28 per cent of Western Sydney’s resident workforce, or 226,000 people need to travel to other parts of Sydney for work, particularly for knowledgebased jobs”.
Improving the scale and mix of job opportunities will help more people work closer to home and reduce commuting times, making Sydney more productive.
Simulation of sydney’s growth plan 2011 - 2036
Pupolation density
Avarege Income
Cost of Housing
City centers (Input)
Agents location (Input)
Smulation effect in agents over 20 years (output)
Cost of Housing
Avarege Income <1,000
income
>1,000
Agent Occupation = Location % Ocupation Agent income - cost of housing > cost of housing population density <= Agent desire mode of living (age, family, location)
Pupolation density
Agents location (Input)
The main data come from available data through (www.censusdata.abs.gov.au) which is colecting different tipe of data around the residence of sydney. This data has being projected by different departments as shown in the document prepared for the deparment of planning, where decisions of development has being taken due to the rapid growth in density that sydney willexperience in incoming years.
Behaviour
City centers (Input)
Search best - fit location within city landscape
Area of intrest
If value of housing = Income of Agent Stay
DO
else if value of housing >= Income of Agent keep search
DO
Evaluate variables within chose location
IF Area of intrest
the simulation aims to use this data as input values to affect agents (population mobility) and trace where density is most likely to be stablish and how the relationship between geographic of distances and value land play a role on how agents move across the landscape.
Area of intrest
Behaviour algorithm according to agent vs city centers
Simulation agents & variables
Parramatta
Sydney CBD
Airport area of development By 2025 the growth of western sydney might transform the performance of sydney location important key locating key facilities that allow less than half of the population of sydney to live an hour away from the sydney CBD.
By 2011 Parramata was becaming a very attractive place, as the agents show in the visualization. even when the cost of housing was incresing rising the income avarage per citizent attract alot of young families into the area.
2025 Projection
2011 Projection
Parramatta
Blacktown
Loverpool Airport area of development The simulation projects that at this point in time the cost of living will increase so much, following the compounding growth, meaning that affordable living will be podible in places like external areas of the city such as the development area sorrounding the west airport.
In the present day the housing market and the job location across sydney are inviting the current population who can not stay around the main centers due to income limitations to spread west where prices maintain low as its distances to knowledge job increase farther is it.
2017 Projection
Sydney CBD
2031Projection
Airport area of development
Liverpool
Its projected low population at that point will increase the amount of agent intrested to be position in it.
Airport area of development
Parramatta
The projection 2035 is the most critical one when we see that if growth of price againts income continue, as in any normal capitalist framework of at least 3% of compound growth, the new airport and its development will start repeating the pattern that the simulation shows at the year 2017.
As the simulation shows, and the estimationof the planning entities, the begin of the development around the airport area has trigger a significant input surplus value of the city moving in the west direction. throught the simulation we can see that the agents self organize around this new area of development but still try to find a stright path to the closest main centers.
2020 Projection
Parramatta
2035 Projection
This pattern will start driving people further to the edges making comute to work very difficult or an inmense desnsification of the centers will produce enough capacity to host thepeople projected to live in sydney by 2035.
Airport area of development
Airport area of development
Different density vs cost scenerios
Time vs distance = user expenditure Simulation of sydneyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth plan 2011 - 2036
Income inequalities cause by spacial relations
MAX
MIN INCREASE OVER TIME
best fit scenerio for low income population work / housing / cost
MAX
MIN
INCREASE OVER TIME
best fit scenerio for high income population work / housing / cost
Scenerio of low income agent remaining in close to town center increase of oportunities and connectivities for the individuals.
Evaluation of diferences in inputs applied to user agents Simulation of sydneyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth plan 2011 - 2036