On Thin Ice: Climate Change and the Future of Pandemics

By Lauren Manning

Over the last three years, many facets of life have been dramatically transformed by COVID-19. There has been a constant stream of information on mutations, vaccines, and the rising death toll. Classes have taken place over Zoom or with desks spread six feet apart, faces hidden behind surgical masks. Businesses have lost customers and been forced to shut down. There continue to be serious debates regarding masks and vaccines, arguments that have nearly torn the nation apart. Above all, the disastrous side effects and fatalities have been felt all over the world. The last thing anyone wants to hear is more bad news.

But what if it does not stop with COVID? What if there was a new virus lying in wait for the perfect opportunity, poised to take over nearly every aspect of our lives once more? This is something we may have to come to terms with as climate change creates conditions favorable to new viruses, which are actually old viruses revived after millennia of dormancy. Trapped under layer upon layer of ice that has accumulated over eons lie ancient microbes, including bacteria and viruses. Microorganisms such as these have the genetic ability to withstand freezing temperatures and survive for incredibly long periods.

Recently, scientists discovered viruses from samples taken out of the Tibetan Plateau in China. These viruses have been dated to be almost 15,000 years old. They are unlike anything humans have seen or experienced before, presumably uncovering an alternate evolutionary path that viruses have taken over the years. The discoveries do not stop there. A 30,000-year-old virus called Mollivirus sibericum was recently discovered and analyzed. Scientists concluded that this virus could still infect modern amoeba, despite its prehistoric age.

As climate change continues to unleash its wrath on Earth, its consequences could bring about snowballing catastrophic events. Take the melting of the ice caps, for example. Of course, there are the more well-known effects that this could have on the environment, including rising sea levels, flooding, destruction of habitats, and extreme fluctuations in weather patterns. However, it does not stop there. The melting glaciers may mobilize the dormant viruses they contain and expose them to hosts, which could bring about even more destructive effects on humans, animals, and plants.

Viruses have already been known to reawaken from frozen slumbers in the past. Scientists discovered well-preserved smallpox and Spanish flu viruses from century-old frozen tissue samples. Around five years ago, frozen reindeer carcasses in Siberia that had been trapped in the ice for decades thawed out during an unusual heat wave. What followed was an outbreak of anthrax, which came from still-infectious anthrax spores. Not much is known about these viruses or any of the microbial life in and around the glaciers. Researchers are working to make some sense of them, as they belong to an ancient era that is hard to reach even using the best scientific tools available today. It is known, however, that once these viruses thaw, they must find a host in order to survive. Luckily, few people live around this area, so contact was limited.

While scientists want to start studying these viruses more in-depth, they fear potentially releasing the viruses in doing so. In November of 2019, researchers worldwide gathered in Hannover, Germany for a conference at which they discussed the potential threats and findings that lie beneath the permafrost (ground that remains frozen throughout the year). Dr. Vladimir Romanovsky, Professor of Geophysics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, explained at the conference that permafrost is thawing more and more each year, revealing and reactivating the biological activity of ancient soils.

Dr. Jean Michel Claverie, a virologist at Aix-Marseille University, was also at the conference. He and Dr. Chantal Abergel work to isolate DNA viruses frozen around the Kolyma River in northeastern Siberia and inject them into amoeba as a safe way to determine whether the viruses are still effective. They have revived a few viruses from the ancient permafrost, but none as ancient as the 30,000-yearold Mollivirus sibiricum.

Claverie and Abergel emphasized that DNA viruses, such as smallpox, pose a greater threat than RNA viruses like the flu or COVID-19. RNA viruses are weaker and less stable than DNA viruses, so, according to Claverie, it is highly unlikely that they could be revived from prehistor- ic permafrost. DNA viruses can live for a long time, even without a host, which is why Claverie and Abergel have been researching these specific viruses.

Dr. Brigitta Evengård, who put the conference together, has emphasized her fear of bacterial infections activating from the thawing permafrost. According to her, there is a low chance that these bacteria could be antibiotic-resistant, but not impossible. She believes the worst-case scenario could be a plague—such as the Bubonic Plague—if the bacteria are antibiotic-resistant. The possible pandemics that could emerge from the thawing permafrost are “Pandora’s box,” in Evengård’s words.

Fortunately, there is some good news. These viruses will not be an issue if we control the presence and spread of climate change and refrain from manipulating the arctic. However, large companies and even entire countries have started to exploit these areas by excavating large holes to extract natural gas, which could potentially expose these viruses.

In Russia, 80% of natural gas comes from the arctic. Drilling activity leaves the permafrost vulnerable, exposing regions that have remained frozen solid for centuries. Dr. Abergel noted that if one of these viable viruses came into direct contact with a human, it would be difficult to stop another epidemic or pandemic from occurring. Even though there is a small population of people near the poles, the retreat of arctic glaciers may feed back into the issue by inviting more human encroachment and increasing the probability of contact.

Ultimately, all of these issues are something that we must bear in mind and strive to learn more about in the future. The only line of defense we have against the threat of these mysterious viruses is the employment of science to understand how they may interact with living organisms before physical contact occurs. It is a race against time, but at least we have all been prepared and understand what is at stake if we ignore the power of nature. H