The 500+ program

“ THE FAMILY 500+ PROGRAM MAY HAVE FAILED AT ACHIEVING ITS PRIMARY GOAL, WHICH WAS TO INCREASE THE BIRTH RATE AND

IMPROVE THE COUNTRY’S DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN THE LONG RUN

THE JOB MARKET

Low unemployment and rising wages are what analysts usually look at when assessing the Polish economy in terms of labor. Nevertheless, a closer look reveals that the country’s labor market may not necessarily be described as favorable to employees and those looking for work

BY KAMILA WAJSZCZUK

THE JOB MARKET CONUNDRUMTHE JOB MARKET CONUNDRUM

Following years of double-digit registered unemployment, Poland has been enjoying one of its lowest levels for a considerable time now. According to data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), unemployment reached a low of 5.3 percent in June this year (5.5 percent for seasonally adjusted data). At the same time, monthly wages have been rising steadily to reach

PLN 5,138.50 (ca. €1,190) in June. In a recent study by Randstad, 88 percent of respondents were confident they would find a new job within six months if there were to lose their current employment. When asked about possible reasons for a job change, 55 percent of the respondents named remuneration and 46 percent mentioned professional development. However, the same consultancy’s monitoring shows that the time needed to find a job has slightly increased and currently averages 2.5 months. Candidates aged 30-39 need the least time (1.9 months on average), while those aged 40-49 need the most (3.7 months).

A JOB SEEKER’S DREAM…

Agnieszka Kulesa, an economist at the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), agrees that the situation on Poland’s labor market is increasingly favorable for employees, albeit with some reservations. We may generally say that it is an employee’s market in Poland now, but only with regard to selected sectors of the economy and even selected professions within those sectors. Statistical data – on registered unemployment and the employment rate – is very good in Poland but it’s worth asking extra questions about the current structure of employment with regards to age, gender, disabilities and so on, she said.

In her opinion, two groups of professions show symptoms of a tight market: jobs with difficult work conditions and jobs that require skills and knowledge that are difficult, costly or time-consuming to acquire. Especially affected are the construction sector, with a wide range of professions that require physical strength, availability at various times of the day and a willingness to travel, and the production sector, especially in the case of professions that require unique skills. In the transport sector, particularly in the western part of Poland, employers are seeking bus and truck drivers, mechanics and warehouse employees.

The restaurant sector is also experiencing a staffing shortfall, notably in larger cities. Another sector is personal care and medical services, with a special focus on nurses and midwives, physicians, physical therapists, as well as careers for the elderly and disabled. In the services sector, she also pointed out a shortfall in the number of hairdressers and beauticians with documented skills and experience. In finance, accountants are sought after. Also, IT and telecommunications specialists are already seen as job seekers who set their own conditions, and that trend is likely to intensify.

When we compare the situation on the labor market in 2019 to the one we had in 2016, we can see an increased shortage of job seekers. Fewer and fewer people are searching for employment in these sectors and professions, Kulesa stressed. However, Poland’s market still focuses on a cheap labor force and it has serious issues with satisfying some needs, she added.

…BUT IS IT REALLY?

Professor Joanna Tyrowicz from GRAPE (Group for Research in Applied Economics) and the University of Warsaw spoke in a much more cautionary tone. In her opinion, current developments in the Polish labor market are not necessarily a sign of favorable circumstances. There are systemic reasons behind the fact that despite rising indicators of labor market tightness, the bargaining power of Polish employees is not high. Naturally, unemployment declines while wages and employment grow, but what counts the most is the ease of finding a new job.

The key indicator for evaluating the condition of the labor market is the length of time needed to find a new job. An employee will think twice about leaving an unsatisfying job if the time needed to find a better job takes many months, as is the case in Poland. People have bills and mortgage installments to pay – they are thus less likely to even enter into bargaining if they are convinced they are stuck with what they have. The same applies to employers: e.g. the 3-6 months needed to fill a vacancy simply discourages job creation, because it may be easier to forego new business opportunities or to find a subcontractor, even abroad.

As a result, the labor market is stagnant, wage dynamics remain low, personal wage profiles also grow slowly and there is little opportunity for new people to enter the market. These mechanisms are present in Poland, even if the current business cycle is generally favorable, hence we temporarily experience less adverse consequences, Tyrowicz concluded.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Source: GUS

June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019

6.1%6% 5.9%5.9%5.9%5.8%5.8%5.8% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5%5.5% 5.5%